Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems

This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.

Logic programming and fuzzy Monte Carlo for distribution network reconfiguration

This paper present a methodology to choose the distribution networks reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method using fuzzy sets and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzyprobabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A logic programming algorithm is applied, once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo Simulation, to get all possible reconfigurations for each system state. To evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation an AC load flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 115 buses distribution network.

A data-mining based methodology for wind forecasting

In many countries the use of renewable energy is increasing due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on the efficient integration of renewable energy into electric power systems is becoming extremely important. Several European countries have already achieved high penetration of wind based electricity generation and are gradually evolving towards intensive use of this generation technology. The introduction of wind based generation in power systems poses new challenges for the power system operators. This is mainly due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind based generation. In order to deal with this uncertainty and to improve the power system efficiency, adequate wind forecasting tools must be used. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology for very short-term wind forecasting, which is suitable to deal with large real databases. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years of wind speed, and results for wind speed forecasting at 5 minutes intervals.

A data-mining-based methodology for transmission expansion planning

In recent decades, all over the world, competition in the electric power sector has deeply changed the way this sector’s agents play their roles. In most countries, electric process deregulation was conducted in stages, beginning with the clients of higher voltage levels and with larger electricity consumption, and later extended to all electrical consumers. The sector liberalization and the operation of competitive electricity markets were expected to lower prices and improve quality of service, leading to greater consumer satisfaction. Transmission and distribution remain noncompetitive business areas, due to the large infrastructure investments required. However, the industry has yet to clearly establish the best business model for transmission in a competitive environment. After generation, the electricity needs to be delivered to the electrical system nodes where demand requires it, taking into consideration transmission constraints and electrical losses. If the amount of power flowing through a certain line is close to or surpasses the safety limits, then cheap but distant generation might have to be replaced by more expensive closer generation to reduce the exceeded power flows. In a congested area, the optimal price of electricity rises to the marginal cost of the local generation or to the level needed to ration demand to the amount of available electricity. Even without congestion, some power will be lost in the transmission system through heat dissipation, so prices reflect that it is more expensive to supply electricity at the far end of a heavily loaded line than close to an electric power generation. Locational marginal pricing (LMP), resulting from bidding competition, represents electrical and economical values at nodes or in areas that may provide economical indicator signals to the market agents. This article proposes a data-mining-based methodology that helps characterize zonal prices in real power transmission networks. To test our methodology, we used an LMP database from the California Independent System Operator for 2009 to identify economical zones. (CAISO is a nonprofit public benefit corporation charged with operating the majority of California’s high-voltage wholesale power grid.) To group the buses into typical classes that represent a set of buses with the approximate LMP value, we used two-step and k-means clustering algorithms. By analyzing the various LMP components, our goal was to extract knowledge to support the ISO in investment and network-expansion planning.

Strategic bidding methodology for electricity markets using adaptive learning

The very particular characteristics of electricity markets, require deep studies of the interactions between the involved players. MASCEM is a market simulator developed to allow studying electricity market negotiations. This paper presents a new proposal for the definition of MASCEM players’ strategies to negotiate in the market. The proposed methodology is implemented as a multiagent system, using reinforcement learning algorithms to provide players with the capabilities to perceive the changes in the environment, while adapting their bids formulation according to their needs, using a set of different techniques that are at their disposal. This paper also presents a methodology to define players’ models based on the historic of their past actions, interpreting how their choices are affected by past experience, and competition.

Zonal prices analysis supported by a data mining based methodology

A methodology based on data mining techniques to support the analysis of zonal prices in real transmission networks is proposed in this paper. The mentioned methodology uses clustering algorithms to group the buses in typical classes that include a set of buses with similar LMP values. Two different clustering algorithms have been used to determine the LMP clusters: the two-step and K-means algorithms. In order to evaluate the quality of the partition as well as the best performance algorithm adequacy measurements indices are used. The paper includes a case study using a Locational Marginal Prices (LMP) data base from the California ISO (CAISO) in order to identify zonal prices.

Optimal methodology for renewable energy dispatching in islanded operation

The management of energy resources for islanded operation is of crucial importance for the successful use of renewable energy sources. A Virtual Power Producer (VPP) can optimally operate the resources taking into account the maintenance, operation and load control considering all the involved cost. This paper presents the methodology approach to formulate and solve the problem of determining the optimal resource allocation applied to a real case study in Budapest Tech’s. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model (MILP) and solved by a deterministic optimization technique CPLEX-based implemented in General Algebraic Modeling Systems (GAMS). The problem has also been solved by Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO). The obtained results are presented and compared.

Optimal methodology for distribution systems reconfiguration based on OPF and solved by decomposition technique

This paper presents a new and efficient methodology for distribution network reconfiguration integrated with optimal power flow (OPF) based on a Benders decomposition approach. The objective minimizes power losses, balancing load among feeders and subject to constraints: capacity limit of branches, minimum and maximum power limits of substations or distributed generators, minimum deviation of bus voltages and radial optimal operation of networks. The Generalized Benders decomposition algorithm is applied to solve the problem. The formulation can be embedded under two stages; the first one is the Master problem and is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming problem. This stage determines the radial topology of the distribution network. The second stage is the Slave problem and is formulated as a non-linear programming problem. This stage is used to determine the feasibility of the Master problem solution by means of an OPF and provides information to formulate the linear Benders cuts that connect both problems. The model is programmed in GAMS. The effectiveness of the proposal is demonstrated through two examples extracted from the literature.

Investimento pessoal e independência funcional em idosos

Enquadramento: Se o envelhecimento populacional é encarado como um triunfo da sociedade atual, constitui ao mesmo tempo um desafio a toda a sociedade no sentido de se conseguir que este envelhecimento seja ativo e com qualidade de vida. O investimento na vida pessoal realizado pelos idosos de forma a obter a melhor qualidade de vida bem como a manutenção da sua independência funcional são indicadores importantíssimos para um envelhecimento bem-sucedido. Objetivos: Identificar a perceção dos idosos sobre o seu investimento na vida pessoal, avaliar níveis de independência funcional e analisar associações entre varáveis sociodemográficas clínicas e psicossociais e o investimento pessoal e a independência funcional. Métodos: Realizou-se um estudo do tipo transversal, analítico-correlacional de natureza quantitativa e de cariz descritivo, com uma amostra não probabilística constituída por 103 idosos da Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Mogadouro. Para a mensuração das variáveis aplicou-se um questionário que integra uma secção de caraterização socio demográfica e clínica, a Escala de Apgar Familiar, o índice de Barthel e a Escala de Investimento Pessoal. Resultados: As evidências encontradas neste estudo demonstram que a nossa amostra apresenta níveis elevados de independência funcional (40,8%) e de investimento na vida pessoal (89,3%). As variáveis que se associam de forma significativa com a independência funcional foram o género, local de institucionalização e o exercício físico. Já as que se associaram ao investimento pessoal foram o estado civil, local de residência, a prática de exercício físico e a funcionalidade familiar. Conclusão: Apesar da elevada média de idades dos nossos idosos estes apresentam bastante funcionalidade e moderado investimento na vida pessoal, contudo as variáveis associadas de forma significativa a estes constructos são: ser do género masculino, ser casado ou viver em união de facto, o residir no próprio domicílio, praticar regularmente exercício físico e percecionar famílias funcionais.

Cluster Analysis of Business Data

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Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Notice on a methodology for characterizing emissions of ultrafine particles/nanoparticles in microenvironments

Bearing in mind the potential adverse health effects of ultrafine particles, it is of paramount importance to perform effective monitoring of nanosized particles in several microenvironments, which may include ambient air, indoor air, and also occupational environments. In fact, effective and accurate monitoring is the first step to obtaining a set of data that could be used further on to perform subsequent evaluations such as risk assessment and epidemiologic studies, thus proposing good working practices such as containment measures in order to reduce occupational exposure. This paper presents a useful methodology for monitoring ultrafine particles/nanoparticles in several microenvironments, using online analyzers and also sampling systems that allow further characterization on collected nanoparticles. This methodology was validated in three case studies presented in the paper, which assess monitoring of nanosized particles in the outdoor atmosphere, during cooking operations, and in a welding workshop.

The importance of qualitative methodology in management empirical research

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to highlight the importance of qualitative research within the scope of management scientific studies, referring to its philosophy, nature and instruments. It also confronts it with quantitative methodology, approaching its differences as well as its complementariness and synergies, with the purpose of explaining, from a more analytic point of view, the relevance of qualitative methodology in the course of an authentic and real research despite its complexity. Design/methodology/approach: Regardless of its broad application, one may attest the scarcity literature that focuses on qualitative research applied to the management scientific area, as opposed to the large amount that refers to quantitative research. Findings: The paper shows the influence that qualitative research has on management scientific research. Originality/value:. Qualitative research assumes an important role within qualitative research by allowing for the study and analysis of certain types of phenomena that occur inside organisations, and in respect of which quantitative studies cannot provide an answer.

Extraction of ochratoxin A in bread samples by the QuEChERS methodology

A QuEChERS method for the extraction of ochratoxin A (OTA) from bread samples was evaluated. A factorial design (23) was used to find the optimal QuEChERS parameters (extraction time, extraction solvent volume and sample mass). Extracts were analysed by LC with fluorescence detection. The optimal extraction conditions were: 5 g of sample, 15 mL of acetonitrile and 3 min of agitation. The extraction procedure was validated by systematic recovery experiments at three levels. The recoveries obtained ranged from 94.8% (at 1.0 μg kg -1) to 96.6% (at 3.0 μg kg -1). The limit of quantification of the method was 0.05 μg kg -1. The optimised procedure was applied to 20 samples of different bread types (‘‘Carcaça’’, ‘‘Broa de Milho’’, and ‘‘Broa de Avintes’’) highly consumed in Portugal. None of the samples exceeded the established European legal limit of 3 μg kg -1.

On clustering interval data with different scales of measures : experimental results

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