Assembling a consistent set of sentences in relational probabilistic logic with stochastic independence

We examine the representation of judgements of stochastic independence in probabilistic logics. We focus on a relational logic where (i) judgements of stochastic independence are encoded by directed acyclic graphs, and (ii) probabilistic assessments are flexible in the sense that they are not required to specify a single probability measure. We discuss issues of knowledge representation and inference that arise from our particular combination of graphs, stochastic independence, logical formulas and probabilistic assessments. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic logic with independence

This paper investigates probabilistic logics endowed with independence relations. We review propositional probabilistic languages without and with independence. We then consider graph-theoretic representations for propositional probabilistic logic with independence; complexity is analyzed, algorithms are derived, and examples are discussed. Finally, we examine a restricted first-order probabilistic logic that generalizes relational Bayesian networks. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Computational Framework for Institutional Agency

This paper provides a computational framework, based on Defeasible Logic, to capture some aspects of institutional agency. Our background is Kanger-Lindahl-P\"orn account of organised interaction, which describes this interaction within a multi-modal logical setting. This work focuses in particular on the notions of counts-as link and on those of attempt and of personal and direct action to realise states of affairs. We show how standard Defeasible Logic can be extended to represent these concepts: the resulting system preserves some basic properties commonly attributed to them. In addition, the framework enjoys nice computational properties, as it turns out that the extension of any theory can be computed in time linear to the size of the theory itself.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

Probabilistic Action System Trace Semantics

Action systems are a construct for reasoning about concurrent, reactive systems, in which concurrent behaviour is described by interleaving atomic actions. Sere and Troubitsyna have proposed an extension to action systems in which actions may be expressed and composed using discrete probabilistic choice as well as demonic nondeterministic choice. In this paper we develop a trace-based semantics for probabilistic action systems. This semantics provides a simple theoretical base on which practical refinement rules for probabilistic action systems may be justified.

A Logic Framework of Normative-based Contract Management

We explore of the feasibility of the computationally oriented institutional agency framework proposed by Governatori and Rotolo testing it against an industrial strength scenario. In particular we show how to encode in defeasible logic the dispute resolution policy described in Article 67 of FIDIC.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

A framework for selecting appropriate remotely sensed data dimensions for environmental monitoring and management

Two major factors are likely to impact the utilisation of remotely sensed data in the near future: (1)an increase in the number and availability of commercial and non-commercial image data sets with a range of spatial, spectral and temporal dimensions, and (2) increased access to image display and analysis software through GIS. A framework was developed to provide an objective approach to selecting remotely sensed data sets for specific environmental monitoring problems. Preliminary applications of the framework have provided successful approaches for monitoring disturbed and restored wetlands in southern California.

A framework to monitor sustainability in the grains industry

Community awareness of the sustainable use of land, water and vegetation resources is increasing. The sustainable use of these resources is pivotal to sustainable farming systems. However, techniques for monitoring the sustainable management of these resources are poorly understood and untested. We propose a framework to benchmark and monitor resources in the grains industry. Eight steps are listed below to achieve these objectives: (i) define industry issues; (ii) identify the issues through growers, stakeholder and community consultation; (iii) identify indicators (measurable attributes, properties or characteristics) of sustainability through consultation with growers, stakeholders, experts and community members, relating to: crop productivity; resource maintenance/enhancement; biodiversity; economic viability; community viability; and institutional structure; (iv) develop and use selection criteria to select indicators that consider: responsiveness to change; ease of capture; community acceptance and involvement; interpretation; measurement error; stability, frequency and cost of measurement; spatial scale issues; and mapping capability in space and through time. The appropriateness of indicators can be evaluated using a decision making system such as a multiobjective decision support system (MO-DSS, a method to assist in decision making from multiple and conflicting objectives); (v) involve stakeholders and the community in the definition of goals and setting benchmarking and monitoring targets for sustainable farming; (vi) take preventive and corrective/remedial action; (vii) evaluate effectiveness of actions taken; and (viii) revise indicators as part of a continual improvement principle designed to achieve best management practice for sustainable farming systems. The major recommendations are to: (i) implement the framework for resources (land, water and vegetation, economic, community and institution) benchmarking and monitoring, and integrate this process with current activities so that awareness, implementation and evolution of sustainable resource management practices become normal practice in the grains industry; (ii) empower the grains industry to take the lead by using relevant sustainability indicators to benchmark and monitor resources; (iii) adopt a collaborative approach by involving various industry, community, catchment management and government agency groups to minimise implementation time. Monitoring programs such as Waterwatch, Soilcheck, Grasscheck and Topcrop should be utilised; (iv) encourage the adoption of a decision making system by growers and industry representatives as a participatory decision and evaluation process. Widespread use of sustainability indicators would assist in validating and refining these indicators and evaluating sustainable farming systems. The indicators could also assist in evaluating best management practices for the grains industry.

Developing a framework for assessment of the environmental determinants of walking and cycling

The focus for interventions and research on physical activity has moved away from vigorous activity to moderate-intensity activities, such as walking. In addition, a social ecological approach to physical activity research and practice is recommended. This approach considers the influence of the environment and policies on physical activity. Although there is limited empirical published evidence related to the features of the physical environment that influence physical activity, urban planning and transport agencies have developed policies and strategies that have the potential to influence whether people walk or cycle in their neighbourhood. This paper presents the development of a framework of the potential environmental influences on walking and cycling based on published evidence and policy literature, interviews with experts and a Delphi study. The framework includes four features: functional, safety, aesthetic and destination; as well as the hypothesised factors that contribute to each of these features of the environment. In addition, the Delphi experts determined the perceived relative importance of these factors. Based on these factors, a data collection tool will be developed and the frameworks will be tested through the collection of environmental information on neighbourhoods, where data on the walking and cycling patterns have been collected previously. Identifying the environmental factors that influence walking and cycling will allow the inclusion of a public health perspective as well as those of urban planning and transport in the design of built environments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd., All rights reserved.

RFID adoption: framework and survey in large Brazilian companies

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for radio frequency identification (RFID) technology adoption considering company size and five dimensions of analysis: RFID applications, expected benefits business drivers or motivations barriers and inhibitors, and organizational factors. Design/methodology/approach - A framework for RFID adoption derived from literature and the practical experience on the subject is developed. This framework provides a conceptual basis for analyzing a survey conducted with 114 companies in Brazil. Findings - Many companies have been developing RFID initiatives in order to identify potential applications and map benefits associated with their implementation. The survey highlights the importance business drivers in the RFID implementation stage, and that companies implement RFID focusing on a few specific applications. However, there is a weak association between expected benefits and business challenges with the current level of RFID technology adoption in Brazil. Research limitations/implications - The paper is not exhaustive, since RFID adoption in Brazil is at early stages during the survey timeline. Originality/value - The main contribution of the paper is that it yields a framework for analyzing RFID technology adoption. The authors use this framework to analyze RFID adoption in Brazil, which proved to be a useful one for identifying key issues for technology adoption. The paper is useful to any researchers or practitioners who are focused on technology adoption, in particular, RFID technology.

Computational methods for prediction of T-cell epitopes - a framework for modelling, testing, and applications

Computational models complement laboratory experimentation for efficient identification of MHC-binding peptides and T-cell epitopes. Methods for prediction of MHC-binding peptides include binding motifs, quantitative matrices, artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models, and molecular modelling. Models derived by these methods have been successfully used for prediction of T-cell epitopes in cancer, autoimmunity, infectious disease, and allergy. For maximum benefit, the use of computer models must be treated as experiments analogous to standard laboratory procedures and performed according to strict standards. This requires careful selection of data for model building, and adequate testing and validation. A range of web-based databases and MHC-binding prediction programs are available. Although some available prediction programs for particular MHC alleles have reasonable accuracy, there is no guarantee that all models produce good quality predictions. In this article, we present and discuss a framework for modelling, testing, and applications of computational methods used in predictions of T-cell epitopes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Career counseling: Applying the systems theory framework of career development

In recent years, career development and career counseling have increasingly been informed by concepts emanating from the constructivist worldview. For example, the Systems Theory Framework (STF; M. McMahon, 2002; M. McMahon I W. Patton, 1995; W. Patton I M. McMahon, 1997, 1999) of career development has been proposed as a metatheoretical account of career development. Furthermore, its theoretical constructs may be applied to career counseling. Thus, the STF provides a theoretical and practical consistency to career counseling and addresses concerns about a gulf between career theory and practice. This article discusses the practical application of the STF of career development as a guide to career counseling.