917 resultados para Probabilistic constraints


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In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.

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This paper is on the self-scheduling problem for a thermal power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market as a price-taker, having bilateral contracts and emission-constrained. An approach based on stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach is proposed for solving the self-scheduling problem. Uncertainty regarding electricity price is considered through a set of scenarios computed by simulation and scenario-reduction. Thermal units are modelled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: forbidden operating zones, ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. A requirement on emission allowances to mitigate carbon footprint is modelled by a stochastic constraint. Supply functions for different emission allowance levels are accessed in order to establish the optimal bidding strategy. A case study is presented to illustrate the usefulness and the proficiency of the proposed approach in supporting biding strategies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Clustering ensemble methods produce a consensus partition of a set of data points by combining the results of a collection of base clustering algorithms. In the evidence accumulation clustering (EAC) paradigm, the clustering ensemble is transformed into a pairwise co-association matrix, thus avoiding the label correspondence problem, which is intrinsic to other clustering ensemble schemes. In this paper, we propose a consensus clustering approach based on the EAC paradigm, which is not limited to crisp partitions and fully exploits the nature of the co-association matrix. Our solution determines probabilistic assignments of data points to clusters by minimizing a Bregman divergence between the observed co-association frequencies and the corresponding co-occurrence probabilities expressed as functions of the unknown assignments. We additionally propose an optimization algorithm to find a solution under any double-convex Bregman divergence. Experiments on both synthetic and real benchmark data show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

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In the framework of multibody dynamics, the path motion constraint enforces that a body follows a predefined curve being its rotations with respect to the curve moving frame also prescribed. The kinematic constraint formulation requires the evaluation of the fourth derivative of the curve with respect to its arc length. Regardless of the fact that higher order polynomials lead to unwanted curve oscillations, at least a fifth order polynomials is required to formulate this constraint. From the point of view of geometric control lower order polynomials are preferred. This work shows that for multibody dynamic formulations with dependent coordinates the use of cubic polynomials is possible, being the dynamic response similar to that obtained with higher order polynomials. The stabilization of the equations of motion, always required to control the constraint violations during long analysis periods due to the inherent numerical errors of the integration process, is enough to correct the error introduced by using a lower order polynomial interpolation and thus forfeiting the analytical requirement for higher order polynomials.

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Trabalho apresentado no âmbito do European Master in Computational Logics, como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Computational Logics

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In developed countries, civil infrastructures are one of the most significant investments of governments, corporations, and individuals. Among these, transportation infrastructures, including highways, bridges, airports, and ports, are of huge importance, both economical and social. Most developed countries have built a fairly complete network of highways to fit their needs. As a result, the required investment in building new highways has diminished during the last decade, and should be further reduced in the following years. On the other hand, significant structural deteriorations have been detected in transportation networks, and a huge investment is necessary to keep these infrastructures safe and serviceable. Due to the significant importance of bridges in the serviceability of highway networks, maintenance of these structures plays a major role. In this paper, recent progress in probabilistic maintenance and optimization strategies for deteriorating civil infrastructures with emphasis on bridges is summarized. A novel model including interaction between structural safety analysis,through the safety index, and visual inspections and non destructive tests, through the condition index, is presented. Single objective optimization techniques leading to maintenance strategies associated with minimum expected cumulative cost and acceptable levels of condition and safety are presented. Furthermore, multi-objective optimization is used to simultaneously consider several performance indicators such as safety, condition, and cumulative cost. Realistic examples of the application of some of these techniques and strategies are also presented.

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Demo presented in 12th Workshop on Models and Algorithms for Planning and Scheduling Problems (MAPSP 2015). 8 to 12, Jun, 2015. La Roche-en-Ardenne, Belgium. Extended abstract.

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Proceedings of the International Conference on Computer Vision Theory and Applications, 361-365, 2013, Barcelona, Spain

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We present a novel approach of Stereo Visual Odometry for vehicles equipped with calibrated stereo cameras. We combine a dense probabilistic 5D egomotion estimation method with a sparse keypoint based stereo approach to provide high quality estimates of vehicle’s angular and linear velocities. To validate our approach, we perform two sets of experiments with a well known benchmarking dataset. First, we assess the quality of the raw velocity estimates in comparison to classical pose estimation algorithms. Second, we added to our method’s instantaneous velocity estimates a Kalman Filter and compare its performance with a well known open source stereo Visual Odometry library. The presented results compare favorably with state-of-the-art approaches, mainly in the estimation of the angular velocities, where significant improvements are achieved.

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In this paper we propose a novel fully probabilistic solution to the stereo egomotion estimation problem. We extend the notion of probabilistic correspondence to the stereo case which allow us to compute the whole 6D motion information in a probabilistic way. We compare the developed approach against other known state-of-the-art methods for stereo egomotion estimation, and the obtained results compare favorably both for the linear and angular velocities estimation.

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This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanicalproperties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the ProbabilisticModel Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic modelsfor the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Lógica Computacional

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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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This paper studies strategies to attract students from outside Europe to European preexperience masters. We characterize the value added by such masters through interviews with key players at the universities and multinational recruiting corporations. We considered a strategy for segmenting international students in the US and extended it to the European market. We have analyzed data from international applications to Nova SBE as a proxy for applications in European institutions. Based on that analysis we conclude with recommendations to attract suitable candidates from outside Europe. In particular we also provided three different solutions to attract students from the southern hemisphere: we conclude that European institutions should (a) increase the spring semester intake, (b) provide bridging courses for some students, or (c) could place some accepted candidates in internships before starting classes.