990 resultados para Probabilistic assessment
Resumo:
Practitioners and academics have developed numerous maturity models for many domains in order to measure competency. These initiatives have often been influenced by the Capability Maturity Model. However, an accumulative effort has not been made to generalize the phases of developing a maturity model in any domain. This paper proposes such a methodology and outlines the main phases of generic model development. The proposed methodology is illustrated with the help of examples from two advanced maturity models in the domains of Business Process Management and Knowledge Management.
Resumo:
SRI has examined the organosolv (organic solvation) pulping of Australian bagasse using technology supplied by Ecopulp. In the process, bagasse is reacted with aqueous ethanol in a digester at elevated temperatures (between 150ºC and 200ºC). The products from the digester are separated using proprietary technology before further processing into a range of saleable products. Test trials were undertaken using two batch digesters; the first capable of pulping about 25 g of wet depithed bagasse and the second, larger samples of about 1.5 kg of wet depithed bagasse. From this study, the unbleached pulp produced from fresh bagasse did not have very good strength properties for the production of corrugated medium for cartons and bleached pulp. In particular, the lignin contents as indicated by the Kappa number for the unbleached pulps are high for making bleached pulp. However, in spite of the high lignin content, it is possible to bleach the pulp to acceptable levels of brightness up to 86.6% ISO. The economics were assessed for three tier pricing (namely low, medium and high price). The economic return for a plant that produces 100 air dry t/d of brownstock pulp is satisfactory for both high and medium pricing levels of pricing. The outcomes from the project justify that work should continue through to either pilot plant or upgraded laboratory facility.
Resumo:
The historical challenge of environmental impact assessment (EIA) has been to predict project-based impacts accurately. Both EIA legislation and the practice of EIA have evolved over the last three decades in Canada, and the development of the discipline and science of environmental assessment has improved how we apply environmental assessment to complex projects. The practice of environmental assessment integrates the social and natural sciences and relies on an eclectic knowledge base from a wide range of sources. EIA methods and tools provide a means to structure and integrate knowledge in order to evaluate and predict environmental impacts.----- This Chapter will provide a brief overview of how impacts are identified and predicted. How do we determine what aspect of the natural and social environment will be affected when a mine is excavated? How does the practitioner determine the range of potential impacts, assess whether they are significant, and predict the consequences? There are no standard answers to these questions, but there are established methods to provide a foundation for scoping and predicting the potential impacts of a project.----- Of course, the community and publics play an important role in this process, and this will be discussed in subsequent chapters. In the first part of this chapter, we will deal with impact identification, which involves appplying scoping to critical issues and determining impact significance, baseline ecosystem evaluation techniques, and how to communicate environmental impacts. In the second part of the chapter, we discuss the prediction of impacts in relation to the complexity of the environment, ecological risk assessment, and modelling.
Resumo:
Three anaerobic ponds used to store and treat piggery wastes were fully covered with permeable materials manufactured from polypropylene geofabric, polyethylene shade cloth and supported straw. The covers were assessed in terms of efficacy in reducing odour emission rates over a 40-month period. Odour samples were collected from the surface of the covers, the surface of the exposed liquor and from the surface of an uncovered (control) pond at one of the piggeries. Relative to the emission rate of the exposed liquor at each pond, the polypropylene, shade cloth and straw covers reduced average emission rates by 76%, 69% and 66% respectively. At the piggery with an uncovered control pond, the polypropylene covers reduced average odour emission rates by 50% and 41% respectively. A plausible hypothesis, consistent with likely mechanisms for the odour reduction and the olfactometric method used to quantifying the efficacy of the covers, is offered.
Resumo:
Developing an effective impact evaluation framework, managing and conducting rigorous impact evaluations, and developing a strong research and evaluation culture within development communication organisations presents many challenges. This is especially so when both the community and organisational context is continually changing and the outcomes of programs are complex and difficult to clearly identify.----- This paper presents a case study from a research project being conducted from 2007-2010 that aims to address these challenges and issues, entitled Assessing Communication for Social Change: A New Agenda in Impact Assessment. Building on previous development communication projects which used ethnographic action research, this project is developing, trailing and rigorously evaluating a participatory impact assessment methodology for assessing the social change impacts of community radio programs in Nepal. This project is a collaboration between Equal Access – Nepal (EAN), Equal Access – International, local stakeholders and listeners, a network of trained community researchers, and a research team from two Australian universities. A key element of the project is the establishment of an organisational culture within EAN that values and supports the impact assessment process being developed, which is based on continuous action learning and improvement. The paper describes the situation related to monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and impact assessment before the project began, in which EAN was often reliant on time-bound studies and ‘success stories’ derived from listener letters and feedback. We then outline the various strategies used in an effort to develop stronger and more effective impact assessment and M&E systems, and the gradual changes that have occurred to date. These changes include a greater understanding of the value of adopting a participatory, holistic, evidence-based approach to impact assessment. We also critically review the many challenges experienced in this process, including:----- • Tension between the pressure from donors to ‘prove’ impacts and the adoption of a bottom-up, participatory approach based on ‘improving’ programs in ways that meet community needs and aspirations.----- • Resistance from the content teams to changing their existing M&E practices and to the perceived complexity of the approach.----- • Lack of meaningful connection between the M&E and content teams.----- • Human resource problems and lack of capacity in analysing qualitative data and reporting results.----- • The contextual challenges, including extreme poverty, wide cultural and linguistic diversity, poor transport and communications infrastructure, and political instability.----- • A general lack of acceptance of the importance of evaluation within Nepal due to accepting everything as fate or ‘natural’ rather than requiring investigation into a problem.