Personnes âgées hospitalisées au CHUV : projections jusqu'en 2030 [brochure]

Les prévisions démographiques pour le canton de Vaud estiment que le nombre de résidents âgés de 65-79 ans s'accroîtra de presque 50% entre 2010 et 2030, tandis que l'effectif des plus âgés augmentera de presque 80%1. Dans ce contexte de vieillissement accéléré de la population, l'évolution du nombre de séjours au CHUV attribuables aux patients âgés peut être anticipée. Une précédente analyse de la Statistique médicale des hôpitaux décrivait les séjours hospitaliers des patients âgés au CHUV, et les comparait à ceux des patients plus jeunes. Sur la base de ces données, des projections ont été effectuées pour les hospitalisations somatiques, psychiatriques, les séjours en lit B, en soins intensifs, et les séjours attribuables à certaines pathologies liées au vieillissement, identifiés au moyen du diagnostic principal. Les séjours en semi-hospitalisation et les prestations ambulatoires du CHUV ne sont pas pris en considération dans ces projections. Une sélection des résultats est rapportée dans cette brochure.

Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

Pose-based SLAM with probabilistic scan matching algorithm using a mechanical scanned imaging sonar

This paper proposes a pose-based algorithm to solve the full SLAM problem for an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), navigating in an unknown and possibly unstructured environment. The technique incorporate probabilistic scan matching with range scans gathered from a mechanical scanning imaging sonar (MSIS) and the robot dead-reckoning displacements estimated from a Doppler velocity log (DVL) and a motion reference unit (MRU). The proposed method utilizes two extended Kalman filters (EKF). The first, estimates the local path travelled by the robot while grabbing the scan as well as its uncertainty and provides position estimates for correcting the distortions that the vehicle motion produces in the acoustic images. The second is an augment state EKF that estimates and keeps the registered scans poses. The raw data from the sensors are processed and fused in-line. No priory structural information or initial pose are considered. The algorithm has been tested on an AUV guided along a 600 m path within a marina environment, showing the viability of the proposed approach

Niche Differentiation and Fine-Scale Projections for Argentine Ants Based on Remotely Sensed Data

Modeling ecological niches of species is a promising approach for predicting the geographic potential of invasive species in new environments. Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) rank among the most successful invasive species: native to South America, they have invaded broad areas worldwide. Despite their widespread success, little is known about what makes an area susceptible - or not - to invasion. Here, we use a genetic algorithm approach to ecological niche modeling based on high-resolution remote-sensing data to examine the roles of niche similarity and difference in predicting invasions by this species. Our comparisons support a picture of general conservatism of the species' ecological characteristics, in spite of distinct geographic and community contexts

Projeccions de canvi climatic per a Catalunya (NE Península Ibèrica). Part II: sintetitzant diverses metodologies = Climate change projections for Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula). Part II: Integrating several methodologies

The publication of the fourth IPCC report, as well as the number of research results reported in recent years about the regionalization of climate projections, were the driving forces to justify the update of the report on climate change in Catalonia. Specifically, the new IPCC report contains new climate projections at global and continental scales, while several international projects (especially European projects PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES) have produced continental-scale climate projections, which allow for distinguishing between European regions. For Spain, some of these results have been included in a document commissioned by the“State Agency of Meteorology”. In addition, initiatives are being developed within Catalonia (in particular, by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia) to downscale climate projections in this area. The present paper synthesizes results of these and other previously published studies, as well as our own analysis of results of the ENSEMBLES project. The aim is to propose scenarios of variation in temperature and rainfall in Catalonia during the 21st Century. Thus, by the middle of this century temperatures could rise up to 2 C compared with that of the late 20th Century. These increases would probably be higher in summer than in winter, generalized across the territory but less pronounced in coastal areas. Rainfall, however, would not change much, but it could slightly decrease. Towards the end of the 21st Century, temperatures could rise to about 5 C above that of the last century, while the average rainfall could decrease by more than 10%. Increases in temperature would be higher in summer and in areas further from the coast. Rainfall would decrease especially during the summer, while it could even increase in winter in mountainous areas such as the Pyrenees.

Probabilistic structure of an annual extreme rainfall series of a coastal area of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to describe the probabilistic structure of the annual series of extreme daily rainfall (Preabs), available from the weather station of Ubatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1935-2009), by using the general distribution of extreme value (GEV). The autocorrelation function, the Mann-Kendall test, and the wavelet analysis were used in order to evaluate the presence of serial correlations, trends, and periodical components. Considering the results obtained using these three statistical methods, it was possible to assume the hypothesis that this temporal series is free from persistence, trends, and periodicals components. Based on quantitative and qualitative adhesion tests, it was found that the GEV may be used in order to quantify the probabilities of the Preabs data. The best results of GEV were obtained when the parameters of this function were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The method of L-moments has also shown satisfactory results.

The probabilistic risk analysis of external hazards of an interim storage for spent nuclear fuel

Tässä diplomityössä tehtiin Olkiluodon ydinvoimalaitoksella sijaitsevan käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen allasvarastointiin perustuvan välivaraston todennäköisyysperustainen ulkoisten uhkien riskianalyysi. Todennäköisyysperustainen riskianalyysi (PRA) on yleisesti käytetty riskien tunnistus- ja lähestymistapa ydinvoimalaitoksella. Työn tarkoituksena oli laatia täysin uusi ulkoisten uhkien PRA-analyysi, koska Suomessa ei ole aiemmin tehty vastaavanlaisia tämän tutkimusalueen riskitarkasteluja. Riskitarkastelun motiivina ovat myös maailmalla tapahtuneiden luonnonkatastrofien vuoksi korostunut ulkoisten uhkien rooli käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen välivarastoinnin turvallisuudessa. PRA analyysin rakenne pohjautui tutkimuksen alussa luotuun metodologiaan. Analyysi perustuu mahdollisten ulkoisten uhkien tunnistamiseen pois lukien ihmisen aikaansaamat tahalliset vahingot. Tunnistettujen ulkoisten uhkien esiintymistaajuuksien ja vahingoittamispotentiaalin perusteella ulkoiset uhat joko karsittiin pois tutkimuksessa määriteltyjen karsintakriteerien avulla tai analysoitiin tarkemmin. Tutkimustulosten perusteella voitiin todeta, että tiedot hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ovat epätäydellisiä. Suurinta osaa näistä hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ei ole koskaan esiintynyt eikä todennäköisesti koskaan tule esiintymään Olkiluodon vaikutusalueella tai edes Suomessa. Esimerkiksi salaman iskujen ja öljyaltistuksen roolit ja vaikutukset erilaisten komponenttien käytettävyyteen ovat epävarmasti tunnettuja. Tutkimuksen tuloksia voidaan pitää kokonaisuudessaan merkittävinä, koska niiden perusteella voidaan osoittaa ne ulkoiset uhat, joiden vaikutuksia olisi syytä tutkia tarkemmin. Yksityiskohtaisempi tietoisuus hyvin harvoin esiintyvistä ulkoisista uhista tarkentaisi alkutapahtumataajuuksien estimaatteja.

Probabilistic contact preferences in protein-ligand and protein-protein complexes

Modeller för intermolekulär växelvärkan utnyttjas brett inom biologin. Analys av kontakter mellan proteiner och läkemedelsforskning representerar typiska tillämpningsområden för dylika modeller. En modell som beskriver sådana molekylära växelverkningar kan utformas med hjälp av biofysisk teori, vilket tenderar att resultera i ytterst tung beräkningsbörda även för enkla tillämpningar. Ett alternativt sätt att formulera modeller är att utnyttja stora databaser som innehåller strukturmätningar gjorda med hjälp av till exempel röntgendiffraktion. Då man använder sig av empiriska mätdata direkt, möjliggör en statistisk modell att osäkerheten och inexaktheten i datat tas till hänsyn på ett adekvat sätt, samtidigt som beräkningsbördan håller sig på en rimligare nivå jämfört med kvantmekaniska metoder som i princip borde ge de optimala resultaten. I avhandlingen utvecklades en 3D modell för numerisk undersökning av intermolekulär växelverkan baserad på Bayesiansk statistik. Modellens syfte är att åstadkomma prognoser för det hurdana eller vilka molekylstrukturer prefereras i en given kontext, d.v.s. är mer sannolika inom ramen för interaktion. Modellen testades i essentiella molekyläromgivningar - en liten molekyl vid sin bindningsplats hos ett protein och en gränsyta mellan proteinerna i ett komplex. De erhållna numeriska resultaten motsvarar väl experimentella resultat som tidigare rapporterats i litteraturen, exempelvis kvalitativa bindningsaffiniteter och kemisk kännedom av vissa aminosyrors rumsliga förmågor att utgöra bindningar. I avhandlingen gjordes ytterligare preliminära tester av den statistiska ansatsen för modellering av den centrala molekylära strukturella anpassningsbarheten. I praktiken är den utvecklade modellen ämnad som ett led i en mer omfattande analysmetod, så som en s.k. farmakofor modell. Molekyylivuorovaikutusten mallintamista hyödynnetään laajasti biologisten kysymysten tarkastelussa. Tyypillisiä esimerkkejä sovelluskohteista ovat proteiinien väliset kontaktit ja lääkesuunnittelu. Vuorovaikutuksia kuvaavan mallin lähtökohta voi olla molekyyleihin liittyvä teoria, jolloin soveltamiseen liittyvä laskenta saattaa olla erityisen raskasta, tai suuri havaintojoukko joka on saatu aikaan esimerkiksi mittaamalla rakenteita röntgendiffraktio menetelmällä. Tilastollinen malli mahdollistaa havaintoaineistossa olevan epätarkkuuden ja epävarmuuden huomioimisen, samalla pitäen laskennallisen kuorman pienempänä verrattuna periaatteessa parhaan tuloksen antavaan kvanttimekaaniseen mallinnukseen. Väitöstyössä kehitettiin bayesiläiseen tilastotieteeseen perustuva 3D malli molekyylien välisten vuorovaikutusten laskennalliseen tarkasteluun. Mallin tehtävä on tuottaa ennusteita sen suhteen, minkä tai millaisten molekyylirakenteiden väliset kompleksit ovat etusijalla, toisin sanoen todennäköisempiä, vuorovaikutustilanteessa. Työssä kehitetyn menetelmän toimivuutta testattiin käyttötarkoituksen suhteen olennaisissa molekyyliympäristöissä - pieni molekyyli sitoutumiskohdassaan proteiinissa sekä rajapinta kahden proteiinin välilllä proteiinikompleksissa. Saadut laskennalliset tulokset vastasivat hyvin vertailuun käytettyjä kirjallisuudesta saatuja kokeellisia tuloksia, kuten laadullisia sitoutumisaffiniteetteja, sekä kemiallista tietoa esimerkiksi tiettyjen aminohappojen avaruudellisesta sidoksenmuodostuksesta. Väitöstyössä myös alustavasti testattiin tilastollista lähestymistapaa tärkeän molekyylien rakenteellisen mukautuvuuden mallintamiseen. Käytännössä malli on tarkoitettu osaksi jotakin laajempaa analyysimenetelmää, kuten farmakoforimallia.

Probabilistic position and orientation estimation of rigid objects using an RGB-D sensor

The recent emergence of low-cost RGB-D sensors has brought new opportunities for robotics by providing affordable devices that can provide synchronized images with both color and depth information. In this thesis, recent work on pose estimation utilizing RGBD sensors is reviewed. Also, a pose recognition system for rigid objects using RGB-D data is implemented. The implementation uses half-edge primitives extracted from the RGB-D images for pose estimation. The system is based on the probabilistic object representation framework by Detry et al., which utilizes Nonparametric Belief Propagation for pose inference. Experiments are performed on household objects to evaluate the performance and robustness of the system.

Horizontal projections of area 17 in Cebus monkeys: metric features, and modular and laminar distribution

Metric features and modular and laminar distributions of intrinsic projections of area 17 were studied in Cebus apella. Anterogradely and retrogradely labeled cell appendages were obtained using both saturated pellets and iontophoretic injections of biocytin into the operculum. Laminar and modular distributions of the labeled processes were analyzed using Nissl counterstaining, and/or cytochrome oxidase and/or NADPH-diaphorase histochemistry. We distinguished three labeled cell types: pyramidal, star pyramidal and stellate cells located in supragranular cortical layers (principally in layers IIIa, IIIb a, IIIb ß and IIIc). Three distinct axon terminal morphologies were found, i.e., Ia, Ib and II located in granular and supragranular layers. Both complete and partial segregation of group I axon terminals relative to the limits of the blobs of V1 were found. The results are compatible with recent evidence of incomplete segregation of visual information flow in V1 of Old and New World primates

Examining current facilitative practices and projections of activity-based physical education degree programs regarding the participation of individuals with disabilties /

Individuals with disabiliiies are increasingly accessing post secondary education opportunities to further develop their educational and career goals. This study examines the current facilitative practices of Canadian university activity-based physical education degree programs on the participation of individuals with disabilities. A critical orientation and descriptive/interpretative approach allows insight into unique stories and experiences of physical education practitioners and special needs professionals as they attempt to provide equitable educational experiences within a least restrictive environment. Leading practitioners are used to triangulate and strengthen the validity of the data while providing direction and advocacy for future development and inclusion of individuals with disabilities. The study concludes with seven recommendations, each providing university activity-based physical education degree programs with viable opportunities for helping create equitable opportunities for individuals with disabilities.

Response curves of deterministic and probabilistic cellular automata in one and two dimensions

One of the most important problems in the theory of cellular automata (CA) is determining the proportion of cells in a specific state after a given number of time iterations. We approach this problem using patterns in preimage sets - that is, the set of blocks which iterate to the desired output. This allows us to construct a response curve - a relationship between the proportion of cells in state 1 after niterations as a function of the initial proportion. We derive response curve formulae for many two-dimensional deterministic CA rules with L-neighbourhood. For all remaining rules, we find experimental response curves. We also use preimage sets to classify surjective rules. In the last part of the thesis, we consider a special class of one-dimensional probabilistic CA rules. We find response surface formula for these rules and experimental response surfaces for all remaining rules.

Probabilistic Assignments of Identical Indivisible Objects and Uniform Probabilistic Rules.

We consider a probabilistic approach to the problem of assigning k indivisible identical objects to a set of agents with single-peaked preferences. Using the ordinal extension of preferences, we characterize the class of uniform probabilistic rules by Pareto efficiency, strategy-proofness, and no-envy. We also show that in this characterization no-envy cannot be replaced by anonymity. When agents are strictly risk averse von-Neumann-Morgenstern utility maximizers, then we reduce the problem of assigning k identical objects to a problem of allocating the amount k of an infinitely divisible commodity.