Highway Performance and Time-Sensitive Industries, 1998

This report addresses delays to freight shippers. Although the focus is on just-in-time (JIT) businesses, the authors also note that non JIT businesses also suffer delays that impact their productivity. The table of contents lists the following headings: chapter 1 - introduction - a trial application: the Des Moines metropolitan area; structure of the report; chapter 2 - reliability at the forefront of freight transport demand - manufacturing and inventory; just-in-time operations in the U.S.; transportation consequences; summary; chapter 3 - JIT operations in Iowa - survey and sample; trucking activity and service; just-in-time truck transportation in Iowa; assessment of factors affecting truck transportation service; summary and conclusions; chapter 4 - travel time uncertainty induced by incidents - a probabilistic model for incident occurrences and durations; calculation of delay; trial application; conclusions; and chapter 5 - conclusions and recommendations - conclusions; recommendations.

Learning to Interpret and Generate Instructional Recipes

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Security and Trust in Distributed Computation

We propose three research problems to explore the relations between trust and security in the setting of distributed computation. In the first problem, we study trust-based adversary detection in distributed consensus computation. The adversaries we consider behave arbitrarily disobeying the consensus protocol. We propose a trust-based consensus algorithm with local and global trust evaluations. The algorithm can be abstracted using a two-layer structure with the top layer running a trust-based consensus algorithm and the bottom layer as a subroutine executing a global trust update scheme. We utilize a set of pre-trusted nodes, headers, to propagate local trust opinions throughout the network. This two-layer framework is flexible in that it can be easily extensible to contain more complicated decision rules, and global trust schemes. The first problem assumes that normal nodes are homogeneous, i.e. it is guaranteed that a normal node always behaves as it is programmed. In the second and third problems however, we assume that nodes are heterogeneous, i.e, given a task, the probability that a node generates a correct answer varies from node to node. The adversaries considered in these two problems are workers from the open crowd who are either investing little efforts in the tasks assigned to them or intentionally give wrong answers to questions. In the second part of the thesis, we consider a typical crowdsourcing task that aggregates input from multiple workers as a problem in information fusion. To cope with the issue of noisy and sometimes malicious input from workers, trust is used to model workers' expertise. In a multi-domain knowledge learning task, however, using scalar-valued trust to model a worker's performance is not sufficient to reflect the worker's trustworthiness in each of the domains. To address this issue, we propose a probabilistic model to jointly infer multi-dimensional trust of workers, multi-domain properties of questions, and true labels of questions. Our model is very flexible and extensible to incorporate metadata associated with questions. To show that, we further propose two extended models, one of which handles input tasks with real-valued features and the other handles tasks with text features by incorporating topic models. Our models can effectively recover trust vectors of workers, which can be very useful in task assignment adaptive to workers' trust in the future. These results can be applied for fusion of information from multiple data sources like sensors, human input, machine learning results, or a hybrid of them. In the second subproblem, we address crowdsourcing with adversaries under logical constraints. We observe that questions are often not independent in real life applications. Instead, there are logical relations between them. Similarly, workers that provide answers are not independent of each other either. Answers given by workers with similar attributes tend to be correlated. Therefore, we propose a novel unified graphical model consisting of two layers. The top layer encodes domain knowledge which allows users to express logical relations using first-order logic rules and the bottom layer encodes a traditional crowdsourcing graphical model. Our model can be seen as a generalized probabilistic soft logic framework that encodes both logical relations and probabilistic dependencies. To solve the collective inference problem efficiently, we have devised a scalable joint inference algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers. The third part of the thesis considers the problem of optimal assignment under budget constraints when workers are unreliable and sometimes malicious. In a real crowdsourcing market, each answer obtained from a worker incurs cost. The cost is associated with both the level of trustworthiness of workers and the difficulty of tasks. Typically, access to expert-level (more trustworthy) workers is more expensive than to average crowd and completion of a challenging task is more costly than a click-away question. In this problem, we address the problem of optimal assignment of heterogeneous tasks to workers of varying trust levels with budget constraints. Specifically, we design a trust-aware task allocation algorithm that takes as inputs the estimated trust of workers and pre-set budget, and outputs the optimal assignment of tasks to workers. We derive the bound of total error probability that relates to budget, trustworthiness of crowds, and costs of obtaining labels from crowds naturally. Higher budget, more trustworthy crowds, and less costly jobs result in a lower theoretical bound. Our allocation scheme does not depend on the specific design of the trust evaluation component. Therefore, it can be combined with generic trust evaluation algorithms.

Leveraging Multiple Features for Image Retrieval and Matching

The goal of image retrieval and matching is to find and locate object instances in images from a large-scale image database. While visual features are abundant, how to combine them to improve performance by individual features remains a challenging task. In this work, we focus on leveraging multiple features for accurate and efficient image retrieval and matching. We first propose two graph-based approaches to rerank initially retrieved images for generic image retrieval. In the graph, vertices are images while edges are similarities between image pairs. Our first approach employs a mixture Markov model based on a random walk model on multiple graphs to fuse graphs. We introduce a probabilistic model to compute the importance of each feature for graph fusion under a naive Bayesian formulation, which requires statistics of similarities from a manually labeled dataset containing irrelevant images. To reduce human labeling, we further propose a fully unsupervised reranking algorithm based on a submodular objective function that can be efficiently optimized by greedy algorithm. By maximizing an information gain term over the graph, our submodular function favors a subset of database images that are similar to query images and resemble each other. The function also exploits the rank relationships of images from multiple ranked lists obtained by different features. We then study a more well-defined application, person re-identification, where the database contains labeled images of human bodies captured by multiple cameras. Re-identifications from multiple cameras are regarded as related tasks to exploit shared information. We apply a novel multi-task learning algorithm using both low level features and attributes. A low rank attribute embedding is joint learned within the multi-task learning formulation to embed original binary attributes to a continuous attribute space, where incorrect and incomplete attributes are rectified and recovered. To locate objects in images, we design an object detector based on object proposals and deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) in view of the emergence of deep networks. We improve a Fast RCNN framework and investigate two new strategies to detect objects accurately and efficiently: scale-dependent pooling (SDP) and cascaded rejection classifiers (CRC). The SDP improves detection accuracy by exploiting appropriate convolutional features depending on the scale of input object proposals. The CRC effectively utilizes convolutional features and greatly eliminates negative proposals in a cascaded manner, while maintaining a high recall for true objects. The two strategies together improve the detection accuracy and reduce the computational cost.

Biologia reprodutiva, crescimento corporal e parâmetros demográficos de Cavia magna em uma ilha estuarina do extremo sul do Brasil

A teoria da história de vida tem como objetivo compreender os fatores que produzem variações na taxa de sobrevivência, tamanho no nascimento, idade de maturação, sazonalidade na reprodução, longevidade, razão sexual da prole. O gênero Cavia pallas 1776 apresenta a maior distribuição dentro da subfamília Cavinae, sendo composto por seis espécies, dentre elas Cavia magna, a qual habita regiões de restinga próximas a estuários ou lagos do norte do Uruguai ao sul do Brasil. Durante esse trabalho avaliamos os padrões da história de vida de uma população de Cavia magna da Ilha dos Marinheiros, RS, Brasil, devido ao fato de se tratar de uma espécie com baixa taxa reprodutiva, distribuição geográfica restrita, e estar exposta a alta pressão de predação. Para isso foi realizado um programa de captura-marcação-recaptura, durante 13 meses no qual foram capturados 129 animais, sendo 63 fêmeas e 66 machos. As longevidades máximas registradas, foram 233 dias para uma fêmea e 321 dias para um macho. Foram encontradas 13 fêmeas grávidas ou lactantes, dentre elas 9 estavam grávidas, sendo que 6 estavam prenhas de 2 filhotes e 3 estavam prenhas de 1 filhote apenas. Vários parâmetros foram testados, para estimar a taxa de sobrevivência e captura ,utilizamos o programa Mark, o método jacknife um modelo probabilístico, que permite heterogeneidade individual nas taxas de captura também foi utilizado. Não houve diferenças significativas no número de machos e fêmeas, a razão sexual foi 1:1. Em relação a estrutura etária, a população foi composta por adultos (82%) e a densidade populacional foi de 30 animais por hectare.

Online MBPeT dashboard : enabling performance testing as a service in the cloud

In this thesis, tool support is addressed for the combined disciplines of Model-based testing and performance testing. Model-based testing (MBT) utilizes abstract behavioral models to automate test generation, thus decreasing time and cost of test creation. MBT is a functional testing technique, thereby focusing on output, behavior, and functionality. Performance testing, however, is non-functional and is concerned with responsiveness and stability under various load conditions. MBPeT (Model-Based Performance evaluation Tool) is one such tool which utilizes probabilistic models, representing dynamic real-world user behavior patterns, to generate synthetic workload against a System Under Test and in turn carry out performance analysis based on key performance indicators (KPI). Developed at Åbo Akademi University, the MBPeT tool is currently comprised of a downloadable command-line based tool as well as a graphical user interface. The goal of this thesis project is two-fold: 1) to extend the existing MBPeT tool by deploying it as a web-based application, thereby removing the requirement of local installation, and 2) to design a user interface for this web application which will add new user interaction paradigms to the existing feature set of the tool. All phases of the MBPeT process will be realized via this single web deployment location including probabilistic model creation, test configurations, test session execution against a SUT with real-time monitoring of user configurable metric, and final test report generation and display. This web application (MBPeT Dashboard) is implemented with the Java programming language on top of the Vaadin framework for rich internet application development. The Vaadin framework handles the complicated web communications processes and front-end technologies, freeing developers to implement the business logic as well as the user interface in pure Java. A number of experiments are run in a case study environment to validate the functionality of the newly developed Dashboard application as well as the scalability of the solution implemented in handling multiple concurrent users. The results support a successful solution with regards to the functional and performance criteria defined, while improvements and optimizations are suggested to increase both of these factors.

An Estimation of Distribution Algorithm with Intelligent Local Search for Rule-based Nurse Rostering

This paper proposes a new memetic evolutionary algorithm to achieve explicit learning in rule-based nurse rostering, which involves applying a set of heuristic rules for each nurse's assignment. The main framework of the algorithm is an estimation of distribution algorithm, in which an ant-miner methodology improves the individual solutions produced in each generation. Unlike our previous work (where learning is implicit), the learning in the memetic estimation of distribution algorithm is explicit, i.e. we are able to identify building blocks directly. The overall approach learns by building a probabilistic model, i.e. an estimation of the probability distribution of individual nurse-rule pairs that are used to construct schedules. The local search processor (i.e. the ant-miner) reinforces nurse-rule pairs that receive higher rewards. A challenging real world nurse rostering problem is used as the test problem. Computational results show that the proposed approach outperforms most existing approaches. It is suggested that the learning methodologies suggested in this paper may be applied to other scheduling problems where schedules are built systematically according to specific rules.

An Estimation of Distribution Algorithm with Intelligent Local Search for Rule-based Nurse Rostering

This paper proposes a new memetic evolutionary algorithm to achieve explicit learning in rule-based nurse rostering, which involves applying a set of heuristic rules for each nurse's assignment. The main framework of the algorithm is an estimation of distribution algorithm, in which an ant-miner methodology improves the individual solutions produced in each generation. Unlike our previous work (where learning is implicit), the learning in the memetic estimation of distribution algorithm is explicit, i.e. we are able to identify building blocks directly. The overall approach learns by building a probabilistic model, i.e. an estimation of the probability distribution of individual nurse-rule pairs that are used to construct schedules. The local search processor (i.e. the ant-miner) reinforces nurse-rule pairs that receive higher rewards. A challenging real world nurse rostering problem is used as the test problem. Computational results show that the proposed approach outperforms most existing approaches. It is suggested that the learning methodologies suggested in this paper may be applied to other scheduling problems where schedules are built systematically according to specific rules.

Learning Binary Code Representations for Effective and Efficient Image Retrieval

The size of online image datasets is constantly increasing. Considering an image dataset with millions of images, image retrieval becomes a seemingly intractable problem for exhaustive similarity search algorithms. Hashing methods, which encodes high-dimensional descriptors into compact binary strings, have become very popular because of their high efficiency in search and storage capacity. In the first part, we propose a multimodal retrieval method based on latent feature models. The procedure consists of a nonparametric Bayesian framework for learning underlying semantically meaningful abstract features in a multimodal dataset, a probabilistic retrieval model that allows cross-modal queries and an extension model for relevance feedback. In the second part, we focus on supervised hashing with kernels. We describe a flexible hashing procedure that treats binary codes and pairwise semantic similarity as latent and observed variables, respectively, in a probabilistic model based on Gaussian processes for binary classification. We present a scalable inference algorithm with the sparse pseudo-input Gaussian process (SPGP) model and distributed computing. In the last part, we define an incremental hashing strategy for dynamic databases where new images are added to the databases frequently. The method is based on a two-stage classification framework using binary and multi-class SVMs. The proposed method also enforces balance in binary codes by an imbalance penalty to obtain higher quality binary codes. We learn hash functions by an efficient algorithm where the NP-hard problem of finding optimal binary codes is solved via cyclic coordinate descent and SVMs are trained in a parallelized incremental manner. For modifications like adding images from an unseen class, we propose an incremental procedure for effective and efficient updates to the previous hash functions. Experiments on three large-scale image datasets demonstrate that the incremental strategy is capable of efficiently updating hash functions to the same retrieval performance as hashing from scratch.

¿Costumbre o Reacción? El efecto de ser víctima de delitos y corrupción en la satisfacción con la vida de los colombianos

Colombia ha sido un país con una larga historia de violencia y corrupción, por lo que se hace importante analizar la relación entre la victimización de dichos delitos sufrida por los individuos y su percepción de satisfacción con la vida. Se utiliza información entre 2004 y 2014 contenida en LAPOP, a manera de secciones transversales repetidas. Con el fin de encontrar dicho efecto, se estima robustamente un modelo probabilístico ordenado, en donde los resultados sugieren que la victimización del último año reduce en 6.7 puntos porcentuales la probabilidad de sentirse muy satisfecho con la vida y el haber sido víctima de algún soborno en 5 puntos porcentuales.

SAMPLING BIAS IN EVALUATING THE PROBABILITY OF SEISMICALLY INDUCED SOIL LIQUEFACTION WITH SPT & CPT CASE HISTORIES

Several deterministic and probabilistic methods are used to evaluate the probability of seismically induced liquefaction of a soil. The probabilistic models usually possess some uncertainty in that model and uncertainties in the parameters used to develop that model. These model uncertainties vary from one statistical model to another. Most of the model uncertainties are epistemic, and can be addressed through appropriate knowledge of the statistical model. One such epistemic model uncertainty in evaluating liquefaction potential using a probabilistic model such as logistic regression is sampling bias. Sampling bias is the difference between the class distribution in the sample used for developing the statistical model and the true population distribution of liquefaction and non-liquefaction instances. Recent studies have shown that sampling bias can significantly affect the predicted probability using a statistical model. To address this epistemic uncertainty, a new approach was developed for evaluating the probability of seismically-induced soil liquefaction, in which a logistic regression model in combination with Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was used. This approach was used to estimate the population (true) distribution of liquefaction to non-liquefaction instances of standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) based most updated case histories. Apart from this, other model uncertainties such as distribution of explanatory variables and significance of explanatory variables were also addressed using KS test and Wald statistic respectively. Moreover, based on estimated population distribution, logistic regression equations were proposed to calculate the probability of liquefaction for both SPT and CPT based case history. Additionally, the proposed probability curves were compared with existing probability curves based on SPT and CPT case histories.

A formal analysis of blockchain consensus

In this thesis, we analyse these protocols using PRISM+, our extension of the probabilistic model checker PRISM with blockchain types and operations upon them. This allows us to model the behaviour of key participants in the protocols and describe the protocols as a parallel composition of PRISM+ processes. Through our analysis of the Bitcoin model, we are able to understand how forks (where different nodes have different versions of the blockchain) occur and how they depend on specific parameters of the protocol, such as the difficulty of the cryptopuzzle and network communication delays. Our results corroborate the statement that considering confirmed the transactions in blocks at depth larger than 5 is reasonable because the majority of miners have consistent blockchains up-to that depth with probability of almost 1. We also study the behaviour of the Bitcoin network with churn miners (nodes that leave and rejoin the network) and with different topologies (linear topology, ring topology, tree topology and fully connected topology). PRISM+ is therefore used to analyse the resilience of Hybrid Casper when changing various basic parameters of the protocol, such as block creation rates and penalty determination strategies. We also study the robustness of Hybrid Casper against two known attacks: the Eclipse attack (where an attacker controls a significant portion of the network's nodes and can prevent other nodes from receiving new transactions) and the majority attack (where an attacker controls a majority of the network's nodes and can manipulate the blockchain to their advantage).

Development of unsupervised learning methods with applications to life sciences data

Machine Learning makes computers capable of performing tasks typically requiring human intelligence. A domain where it is having a considerable impact is the life sciences, allowing to devise new biological analysis protocols, develop patients’ treatments efficiently and faster, and reduce healthcare costs. This Thesis work presents new Machine Learning methods and pipelines for the life sciences focusing on the unsupervised field. At a methodological level, two methods are presented. The first is an “Ab Initio Local Principal Path” and it is a revised and improved version of a pre-existing algorithm in the manifold learning realm. The second contribution is an improvement over the Import Vector Domain Description (one-class learning) through the Kullback-Leibler divergence. It hybridizes kernel methods to Deep Learning obtaining a scalable solution, an improved probabilistic model, and state-of-the-art performances. Both methods are tested through several experiments, with a central focus on their relevance in life sciences. Results show that they improve the performances achieved by their previous versions. At the applicative level, two pipelines are presented. The first one is for the analysis of RNA-Seq datasets, both transcriptomic and single-cell data, and is aimed at identifying genes that may be involved in biological processes (e.g., the transition of tissues from normal to cancer). In this project, an R package is released on CRAN to make the pipeline accessible to the bioinformatic Community through high-level APIs. The second pipeline is in the drug discovery domain and is useful for identifying druggable pockets, namely regions of a protein with a high probability of accepting a small molecule (a drug). Both these pipelines achieve remarkable results. Lastly, a detour application is developed to identify the strengths/limitations of the “Principal Path” algorithm by analyzing Convolutional Neural Networks induced vector spaces. This application is conducted in the music and visual arts domains.

Coupled reliability and boundary element model for probabilistic fatigue life assessment in mixed mode crack propagation

Fatigue and crack propagation are phenomena affected by high uncertainties, where deterministic methods fail to predict accurately the structural life. The present work aims at coupling reliability analysis with boundary element method. The latter has been recognized as an accurate and efficient numerical technique to deal with mixed mode propagation, which is very interesting for reliability analysis. The coupled procedure allows us to consider uncertainties during the crack growth process. In addition, it computes the probability of fatigue failure for complex structural geometry and loading. Two coupling procedures are considered: direct coupling of reliability and mechanical solvers and indirect coupling by the response surface method. Numerical applications show the performance of the proposed models in lifetime assessment under uncertainties, where the direct method has shown faster convergence than response surface method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-dimensional probabilistic inversion of plane-wave electromagnetic data: Methodology, model constraints and joint inversion with electrical resistivity data

Probabilistic inversion methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation are well suited to quantify parameter and model uncertainty of nonlinear inverse problems. Yet, application of such methods to CPU-intensive forward models can be a daunting task, particularly if the parameter space is high dimensional. Here, we present a 2-D pixel-based MCMC inversion of plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) data. Using synthetic data, we investigate how model parameter uncertainty depends on model structure constraints using different norms of the likelihood function and the model constraints, and study the added benefits of joint inversion of EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. Our results demonstrate that model structure constraints are necessary to stabilize the MCMC inversion results of a highly discretized model. These constraints decrease model parameter uncertainty and facilitate model interpretation. A drawback is that these constraints may lead to posterior distributions that do not fully include the true underlying model, because some of its features exhibit a low sensitivity to the EM data, and hence are difficult to resolve. This problem can be partly mitigated if the plane-wave EM data is augmented with ERT observations. The hierarchical Bayesian inverse formulation introduced and used herein is able to successfully recover the probabilistic properties of the measurement data errors and a model regularization weight. Application of the proposed inversion methodology to field data from an aquifer demonstrates that the posterior mean model realization is very similar to that derived from a deterministic inversion with similar model constraints.