Modelo econométrico de probabilidade de fechamento dos gaps do índice futuro Bovespa

Este trabalho estuda os gaps no índice futuro Bovespa. A partir de uma base de dados diária de onze anos do índice Bovespa futuro, o trabalho apresenta dois modelos econométricos não lineares os quais possibilitaram avaliar os efeitos de mudanças em um conjunto de variáveis independentes, a dizer, o tamanho em pontos do gap, a volatilidade do índice e volume suavizado de negociações. Os resultados encontrados mostram que tamanho em pontos do gap possui efeito negativo na probabilidade de fechamento. Por sua vez, as variáveis que representam a volatilidade do índice e o volume de negociações possuem um efeito positivo no fechamento dos gaps, sendo assim, quanto mais volátil o mercado encontra-se e quanto maior o volume transacionado em um determinado dia maior a probabilidade de fechamento dos gaps. Ademais, o trabalho realiza previsões para os fechamentos dos gaps e consegue prever corretamente 68,11% dos gaps positivos e 73,71% dos gaps negativos que fecham.

Os determinantes do investimento em FMN: o efeito moderador da probabilidade de insolvência e do ciclo de vida das empresas

Pretendemos com o nosso estudo demonstrar quais os efeitos de três determinantes no Investimento em Fundo de Maneio Necessário que é considerado por vários autores como vital tanto para o crescimento como para a sustentabilidade das empresas ao longo do seu Ciclo de Vida. Iremos também demonstrar que para além do comportamento e relação desses determinantes com o Investimento em Fundo de Maneio Necessário (FMN), registam-se influências provocadas pelos efeitos moderadores da Probabilidade de Insolvência e do próprio Ciclo de Vida das empresas. Através da análise dos nossos resultados mostraremos como a Rentabilidade Operacional, o Crédito Comercial Obtido e o Financiamento Bancário de Médio e Longo Prazo são os principais determinantes do Investimento em FMN e como estas relações se modificam ao longo do Ciclo de Vida das Empresas. O nosso estudo também vai permitir-nos estudar o efeito moderador da Probabilidade de Insolvência no tipo de financimento do investimento em FMN. O indicador da Probabilidade de Insolvência demonstra ter um feito moderador sobre o tipo de financiamento do FMN. Os fornecedores exibem uma percepção mais rápida e atempada do aparecimento das dificuldades financeiras dos seus clientes do que os financiadores bancários. Esta capacidade permite-lhes monitorizar o estado financeiro dos seus clientes sem restringir a concessão de crédito na sua totalidade. Os modelos estimados para amostras de duas fases do ciclo de vida das empresa fornecem-nos evidências empíricas de que a idade das empresas afecta a forma e a intensidade dos factores explicativos do Investimento em FMN. Nas empresas em fase de maturidade o Crédito Bancário de Médio e Longo Prazo apresenta-se como um substituto ao crédito comercial de fornecedores no financiamento do Ciclo de Exploração. Também demonstramos que os determinantes do Investimento em FMN são afectados pela fase do Ciclo de Vida, medido pela antiguidade da empresa.

Um olhar sobre o castelo de Noudar: do castelo medieval à ruína: Proposta de valorização do lugar

O Castelo de Noudar está implantado num íngreme promontório da herdade da Coitadinha, a Noroeste de Barrancos, integrando o atual Parque da Natureza de Noudar. Construído a partir de 1303, foi alvo de diversas transformações ao longo do tempo, para responder às exigências militares de cada época, e chega aos nossos dias num avançado estado de decadência física. A investigação desenvolvida assenta, em grande parte, no desenho: de Noudar a uma escala territorial, como elemento que participa numa rede fortificada complexa; da evolução morfológica e funcional, que nos permite ter noção das várias configurações do castelo ao longo dos séculos; num desenho propositivo que desenvolve uma estratégia para valorização do lugar e do seu património material e imaterial. Hoje é fundamental compreender como as valências do Parque e da fortaleza se podem cruzar? Este trabalho pretende refletir sobre possibilidades de valorização para contrariar a degradação em que a fortaleza se encontra; ABSTRACT: The Noudar Castle is located in a steep promontory in the herdade da Coitadinha, Northeast from Barrancos, part of the Natural Park of Noudar. Its construction began in 1303, and underwent several transformations throughout its existence, adapting to the military advancements thru out the ages. Today, it shows an advanced state of decay. The investigation is focused on the design of Noudar on a territorial scale, taking part in a complex network of fortified systems; its functional and morphological evolution, which allows us to comprehend the configurations of the castle throughout the centuries; and on a proposed design that develops a strategy to enhance and bring value to this place and its material and non-material heritage. Today it's crucial to comprehend how can the values of the Park and fortress intertwine. This thesis reflects on the possibilities of valuing this site, counter acting the decay which has fallen upon it.

Neurological evaluation of neonates with intraventricular and periventricular hemorrhage

We studied the clinical aspects of 100 consecutive premature newborns with and without intraventricular and periventricular hemorrhage (IPVH).The diagnosis of IPVH was obtained by ultrasonic scans of the skull during the first week of life and at the age of one month. Forty eight percent of newborns with IPVH had abnormal results, and there was a significant correlation with the neurological evaluation in 85% of the infants. The probability of normality for a child with no associated brain abnormalities was 72%, whereas for a child of the same gestational age with associated brain abnormalities was 48.7%.

Is size structure a good measure of future trends of plant populations? an empirical approach using five woody species from the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna)

Size distributions in woody plant populations have been used to assess their regeneration status, assuming that size structures with reverse-J shapes represent stable populations. We present an empirical approach of this issue using five woody species from the Cerrado. Considering count data for all plants of these five species over a 12-year period, we analyzed size distribution by: a) plotting frequency distributions and their adjustment to the negative exponential curve and b) calculating the Gini coefficient. To look for a relationship between size structure and future trends, we considered the size structures from the first census year. We analyzed changes in number over time and performed a simple population viability analysis, which gives the mean population growth rate, its variance and the probability of extinction in a given time period. Frequency distributions and the Gini coefficient were not able to predict future trends in population numbers. We recommend that managers should not use measures of size structure as a basis for management decisions without applying more appropriate demographic studies.

Cumulative doses of radioiodine in the treatment of differentiated thyroid carcinoma: knowing when to stop

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the efficacy of cumulative doses (CDs) of 131I-iodide therapy (RIT) in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The probability of progressive disease according to CDs was evaluated in patients < 45 years old and > 45 years old and correlated to tumor-node-metastasis (TNM), thyroglobulin values, histological types and variants, age, and zduration of the disease. RESULTS: At the end of a follow-up period of 69 ± 56 months, 85 out of 150 DTC patients submitted to fixed doses RIT had no evidence of disease, 47 had stable disease and 18 had progressive disease. Higher CDs were used in the more aggressive variants (p < 0.0001), higher TNM stages (p < 0.0001), and follicular carcinomas (p = 0.0034). Probability of disease progression was higher with CDs > 600 mCi in patients > 45 years old and with CDs > 800 mCi in patients < 45 years. CONCLUSION: Although some patients may still respond to high CDs, the impact of further RIT should be carefully evaluated and other treatment strategies may be warranted.

O uso da mitomicina C em cirurgia combinada

Purpose: To analyze the efficacy and safety of intraope-rative mitomycin C (MMC) in combined procedures (extra-capsular cataract extraction + trabeculectomy). Methods: Twenty-four patients were randomized to either MMC (0.5 mg/ml) (n = 14) or saline solution (n = 10) for 3 minutes during the combined procedure. Results: Twelve months after surgery, mean IOP in the MMC group (13.2 ± 2.9 mmHg) was significantly lower than in the control group (16.3 ± 3.9 mmHg) (p = 0.02). The mean number of medications used during the 12-month follow-up in the control group (1.33 ± 0.5) was significantly higher than in the MMC-treated group (0.5 ± 0.5) (p = 0.005). Life table analysis showed a significantly higher probability of IOP control in the MMC group than in the control group (p < 0.01). Conclusions: Intraoperative MMC is safe and effective in pro-moting a better IOP control and reducing the need for postoperative antiglaucoma medications. We suggest intraope-rative MMC to be routinely employed in combined procedures.

Clinical trials in Brazilian journals of ophthalmology: where we are

PURPOSE: To compare clinical trials published in Brazilian journals of ophthalmology and in foreign journals of ophthalmology with respect to the number of citations and the quality of reporting [by applying the Consolidated Standards for Reporting Trials (CONSORT) statement writing standards]. METHODS: The sample of this systematic review comprised the two Brazilian journals of ophthalmology indexed at Science Citation Index Expanded and six of the foreign journals of ophthalmology with highest Impact Factor® according ISI. All clinical trials (CTs) published from January 2009 to December 2010 at the Brazilians journals and a 1:1 randomized sample of the foreign journals were included. The primary outcome was the number of citations through the end of 2011. Subgroup analysis included language. The secondary outcome included likelihood of citation (cited at least once versus no citation), and presence or absence of CONSORT statement indicators. RESULTS: The citation counts were statistically significantly higher (P<0.001) in the Foreign Group (10.50) compared with the Brazilian Group (0.45). The likelihood citation was statistically significantly higher (P<0.001) in the Foreign Group (20/20 - 100%) compared with the Brazilian Group (8/20 - 40%). The subgroup analysis of the language influence in Brazilian articles showed that the citation counts were statistically significantly higher in the papers published in English (P<0.04). Of 37 possible CONSORT items, the mean for the Foreign Group was 20.55 and for the Brazilian Group was 13.65 (P<0.003). CONCLUSION: The number of citations and the quality of reporting of clinical trials in Brazilian journals of ophthalmology still are low when compared with the foreign journals of ophthalmology with highest Impact Factor®.

Influence of English language in the number of citations of articles published in Brazilian journals of Ophthalmology

PURPOSE: To determine the association between language and number of citations of ophthalmology articles published in Brazilian journals. METHODS: This study was a systematic review. Original articles were identified by review of documents published at the two Brazilian ophthalmology journals indexed at Science Citation Index Expanded - SCIE [Arquivos Brasileiros de Oftalmologia (ABO) and Revista Brasileira de Oftalmologia (RBO)]. All document types (articles and reviews) listed at SCIE in English (English Group) or in Portuguese (Portuguese Group) from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2009 were included, except: editorial materials; corrections; letters; and biographical items. The primary outcome was the number of citations through the end of second year after publication date. Subgroup analysis included likelihood of citation (cited at least once versus no citation), journal, and year of publication. RESULTS: The search at the web of science revealed 382 articles [107 (28%) in the English Group and 275 (72%) in the Portuguese Group]. Of those, 297 (77.7%) were published at the ABO and 85 (23.3%) at the RBO. The citation counts were statistically significantly higher (P<0.001) in the English Group (1.51 - SD 1.98 - range 0 to 11) compared with the Portuguese Group (0.57 - SD 1.06 - range 0 to 7). The likelihood citation was statistically significant higher (P<0.001) in the English Group (70/107 - 65.4%) compared with the Portuguese Group (89/275 - 32.7%). There were more articles published in English at the ABO (98/297 - 32.9%) than at the RBO (9/85 - 10.6%) [P<0.001]. There were no significant difference (P=0.967) at the proportion of articles published in English at the years 2008 (48/172 - 27.9%) and 2009 (59/210 - 28.1%). CONCLUSION: The number of citations of articles published in Portuguese at Brazilian ophthalmology journals is lower than the published in English. The results of this study suggest that the editorial boards should strongly encourage the authors to adopt English as the main language in their future articles.

Herpes Zoster oftálmico e posterior acidente vascular cerebral: relato de caso

A sixty-nine year old man suffered a stroke fourteen weeks after the onset of right herpes zoster ophthalmicus (HZO). Hemispheric infarction was documented by a computed tomography which showed a small hypodense zone in the right internal capsula; after contrast there was enhancement of this hypodense area. Cerebral angiography and cerebral-spinal fluid were not done. Despite of a diagnosis of probability the authors report the case and review the literature. A long latency between the HZO and onset of neurological deficit is stressed. New antiviral agents may prevent the ictus.

Crescimento fisico em crianças e adolescentes de moderada altitude

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Estudos dos desniveis e desvios posturais nas atletas que praticam a modalidade esportiva voleibol

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Deep Water Running para redução da gordura corporal em mulheres na meia idade : estudo de intervenção em Campinas - SP

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Variabilidade do regime de monções sobre o Brasil: o clima presente e projeções para um cenário com 2xCO2 usando o modelo MIROC

Este trabalho investiga a variabilidade do Sistema de Monções da América do Sul (SMAS) sobre o Brasil com particular interesse na região do cerrado brasileiro. O início, final e total de precipitação durante as monções de verão são examinados utilizando estimativas de precipitação por satélite (pêntadas) do Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) entre 1979-2004. Analogamente, as características do regime de monção simuladas pelo modelo climático global acoplado MIROC (Model for interdisciplinary Research on Climate) do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) são examinadas em dois cenários distintos: o clima do século XX (1981-2000) e o clima em uma condição com o dobro da concentração atual de CO2 (2xCO2) na atmosfera (2061-2080). Mostra-se que a variabilidade espacial do início da monção de verão sobre o cerrado na simulação do clima do século XX pelo MIROC corresponde bem às observações. Além disso, há indicação de uma mudança das caudas da distribuição sazonal da precipitação no Cerrado para um cenário com 2xCO2, comparativamente com o clima presente. Este resultado sugere uma mudança na probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos extremos (secos ou úmidos) em um cenário com 2xCO2 sobre o cerrado, o que de acordo com o MIROC, indica uma maior exposição da região às conseqüências de possíveis mudanças climáticas resultantes do aumento de gases de efeito estufa.

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.