On the Informational Role of Term Structure in the U.S. Monetary Policy Rule

This paper uses a structural approach based on the indirect inference principle to estimate a standard version of the new Keynesian monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure using both revised and real-time data. The estimation results show that the term spread and policy inertia are both important determinants of the U.S. estimated monetary policy rule whereas the persistence of shocks plays a small but significant role when revised and real-time data of output and inflation are both considered. More importantly, the relative importance of term spread and persistent shocks in the policy rule and the shock transmission mechanism drastically change when it is taken into account that real-time data are not well behaved.

The New Keynesian Monetary Model: Does it Show the Comovement Between Output and Inflation in the U.S.?

Published as article in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2008), 32(May), pp. 1466-1488.

How Does the New Keynesian Monetary Model Fit in the U.S. and the Eurozone? an Indirect Inference Approach

This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian monetary (NKM) model under alternative specifications of the monetary policy rule using U.S. and Eurozone data. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical method based on the indirect inference principle. An unrestricted VAR is considered as the auxiliary model. On the one hand, the estimation method proposed overcomes some of the shortcomings of using a structural VAR as the auxiliary model in order to identify the impulse response that defines the minimum distance estimator implemented in the literature. On the other hand, by following a classical approach we can further assess the estimation results found in recent papers that follow a maximum-likelihood Bayesian approach. The estimation results show that some structural parameter estimates are quite sensitive to the specification of monetary policy. Moreover, the estimation results in the U.S. show that the fit of the NKM under an optimal monetary plan is much worse than the fit of the NKM model assuming a forward-looking Taylor rule. In contrast to the U.S. case, in the Eurozone the best fit is obtained assuming a backward-looking Taylor rule, but the improvement is rather small with respect to assuming either a forward-looking Taylor rule or an optimal plan.

The Comovement between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments during the Post-War Period in the U.S.

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.

Distribution patterns of fish eggs in the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf Ecosystem, 1977-1987

This atlas presents information on fish eggs and temperature data collected from broadscale ichthyoplankton surveys conducted off the U.S. northeast coast from ]977 to 1987. Distribution and abundance information is provided for 33 taxa in the form of graphs and contoured egg-density maps by month and survey. Comments are included on interannual and interseasonal trends in spawning intensity. Data on 14 additional but less numerous taxa are provided in tabular form. (PDF file contains 316 pages.)

Incidental Catch of Marine Mammals by Foreign and Joint Venture Trawl Vessels in the U.S. EEZ of the North Pacific, 1973-88

During 1973-88, 3,661 marine mammals of 17 species were reported as incidental catch by U.S. fishery observers aboard foreign and joint venture trawl vessels in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone in the North Pacific Ocean and the Bering Sea. Northern sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) accounted for 90% of the reported incidental mortality in the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Bering Sea. Nearly half of these sea lions were taken in trawl nets in the Shelikof Strait, Alaska, joint venture fishery during 1982-84. However, high incidental mortality rates (>25 sea lions per 10,000 metric tons of groundfish catch) also occurred in the foreign fisheries near Kodiak Island and in the Aleutian Islands area in earlier years. Estimated annual mortality of incidentally caught northern sea lions in Alaska declined from 1,000 to 2,000 animals per year during the early 1970s and 1982 to fewer than 100 animals in 1988. In the Bering Sea most sea lions incidentally caught were males, while in the Gulf of Alaska females were more frequently caught. Females may also have been dominant in the incidental catch of sea lions in the Aleutian Islands area, but age and sex composition data are limited. Incidental mortality of adult female sea lions by foreign trawl fisheries in these areas could have partially contributed to the reported declines in northern sea lion populations in Alaska during the 1970s, but it cannot alone account for the present decline in population size. (PDF file contains 64 pages.)

Failure detectors and communication efficiency in the crash and general omisión failure models

122 p.

An examination of strategic opportunities provided by the conference committee procedure in the U.S. Congress

Deference to committees in Congress has been a much studied phenomena for close to 100 years. This deference can be characterized as the unwillingness of a potentially winning coalition on the House floor to impose its will on a small minority, a standing committee. The congressional scholar is then faced with two problems: observing such deference to committees, and explaining it. Shepsle and Weingast have proposed the existence of an ex-post veto for standing committees as an explanation of committee deference. They claim that as conference reports in the House and Senate are considered under a rule that does not allow amendments, the conferees enjoy agenda-setting power. In this paper I describe a test of such a hypothesis (along with competing hypotheses regarding the effects of the conference procedure). A random-utility model is utilized to estimate legislators' ideal points on appropriations bills from 1973 through 1980. I prove two things: 1) that committee deference can not be said to be a result of the conference procedure; and moreover 2) that committee deference does not appear to exist at all.

The Determinants of Energy Efficiency Investments in the U.S.

31 p.

Interactions between marine mammals and pelagic longline fishing gear in the U.S. Atlantic Ocean between 1992 and 2004

The U.S. East Coast pelagic longline fishery has a history of interactions with marine mammals, where animals are hooked and entangled in longline gear. Pilot whales (Globicephala spp.) and Risso’s dolphin (Grampus griseus) are the primary species that interact with longline gear. Logistic regression was used to assess the environmental and gear characteristics that influence interaction rates. Pilot whale inter-actions were correlated with warm water temperatures, proximity to the shelf break, mainline lengths greater than 20 nautical miles, and damage to swordfish catch. Similarly, Risso’s dolphin interactions were correlated with geographic location, proximity the shelf break, the length of the mainline, and bait type. The incidental bycatch of marine mammals is likely associated with depredation of the commercial catch and is increased by the overlap between marine mammal and target species habitats. Altering gear characteristics and fishery practices may mitigate incidental bycatch and reduce economic losses due to depredation.

Classification of Coastal Communities Reporting Commercial Fish Landings in the U.S. Northeast Region: Developing and Testing a Methodology

The National Marine Fisheries Service is required by law to conduct social impact assessments of communities impacted by fishery management plans. To facilitate this process, we developed a technique for grouping communities based on common sociocultural attributes. Multivariate data reduction techniques (e.g. principal component analyses, cluster analyses) were used to classify Northeast U.S. fishing communities based on census and fisheries data. The comparisons indicate that the clusters represent real groupings that can be verified with the profiles. We then selected communities representative of different values on these multivariate dimensions for in-depth analysis. The derived clusters are then compared based on more detailed data from fishing community profiles. Ground-truthing (e.g. visiting the communities and collecting primary information) a sample of communities from three clusters (two overlapping geographically) indicates that the more remote techniques are sufficient for typing the communities for further in-depth analyses. The in-depth analyses provide additional important information which we contend is representative of all communities within the cluster.

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Finfish Bycatch in the U.S. Atlantic Bottom Longline Shark Fishery

Bycatch in U.S. fisheries has become an increasingly important issue to both fisheries managers and the public, owing to the wide range of marine resources that can be involved. From 2002 to 2006, the Commercial Shark Fishery Observer Program (CSFOP) and the Shark Bottom Longline Observer Program (SBLOP) collected data on catch and bycatch caught on randomly selected vessels of the U.S. Atlantic shark bottom longline fishery. Three subregions (eastern Gulf of Mexico, South Atlantic, Mid-Atlantic Bight), five years (2002–06), four hook types (small, medium, large, and other), seven depth ranges (<50 m to >300 m), and eight broad taxonomic categories (e.g. Selachimorpha, Batoidea, Serranidae, etc.) were used in the analyses. Results indicated that the majority of bycatch (number) was caught in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and that the Selachimorpha taxon category made up over 90% of the total bycatch. The factors year followed by depth were the most common significant factors affecting bycatch.