Outcome Prediction after Cardiac Arrest Treated with Hypothermia

Rationale: Clinical and electrophysiological prognostic markers of brain anoxia have been mostly evaluated in comatose survivors of out hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) after standard resuscitation, but their predictive value in patients treated with mild induced hypothermia (IH) is unknown. The objective of this study was to identify a predictive score of independent clinical and electrophysiological variables in comatose OHCA survivors treated with IH, aiming at a maximal positive predictive value (PPV) and a high negative predictive value (NPV) for mortality. Methods: We prospectively studied consecutive adult comatose OHCA survivors from April 2006 to May 2009, treated with mild IH to 33-34_C for 24h at the intensive care unit of the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. IH was applied using an external cooling method. As soon as subjects passively rewarmed (body temperature >35_C) they underwent EEG and SSEP recordings (off sedation), and were examined by experienced neurologists at least twice. Patients with status epilepticus were treated with AED for at least 24h. A multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of mortality at hospital discharge. These were used to formulate a predictive score. Results: 100 patients were studied; 61 died. Age, gender and OHCA etiology (cardiac vs. non-cardiac) did not differ among survivors and nonsurvivors. Cardiac arrest type (non-ventricular fibrillation vs. ventricular fibrillation), time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) >25min, failure to recover all brainstem reflexes, extensor or no motor response to pain, myoclonus, presence of epileptiform discharges on EEG, EEG background unreactive to pain, and bilaterally absent N20 on SSEP, were all significantly associated with mortality. Absent N20 was the only variable showing no false positive results. Multivariable logistic regression identified four independent predictors (Table). These were used to construct the score, and its predictive values were calculated after a cut-off of 0-1 vs. 2-4 predictors. We found a PPV of 1.00 (95% CI: 0.93-1.00), a NPV of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.67-0.91) and an accuracy of 0.93 for mortality. Among 9 patients who were predicted to survive by the score but eventually died, only 1 had absent N20. Conclusions: Pending validation in a larger cohort, this simple score represents a promising tool to identify patients who will survive, and most subjects who will not, after OHCA and IH. Furthermore, while SSEP are 100% predictive of poor outcome but not available in most hospitals, this study identifies EEG background reactivity as an important predictor after OHCA. The score appears robust even without SSEP, suggesting that SSEP and other investigations (e.g., mismatch negativity, serum NSE) might be principally needed to enhance prognostication in the small subgroup of patients failing to improve despite a favorable score.

Osteoporotic fracture risk in elderly women: estimation with quantitative heel US and clinical risk factors

PURPOSE: To derive a prediction rule by using prospectively obtained clinical and bone ultrasonographic (US) data to identify elderly women at risk for osteoporotic fractures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was approved by the Swiss Ethics Committee. A prediction rule was computed by using data from a 3-year prospective multicenter study to assess the predictive value of heel-bone quantitative US in 6174 Swiss women aged 70-85 years. A quantitative US device to calculate the stiffness index at the heel was used. Baseline characteristics, known risk factors for osteoporosis and fall, and the quantitative US stiffness index were used to elaborate a predictive rule for osteoporotic fracture. Predictive values were determined by using a univariate Cox model and were adjusted with multivariate analysis. RESULTS: There were five risk factors for the incidence of osteoporotic fracture: older age (>75 years) (P < .001), low heel quantitative US stiffness index (<78%) (P < .001), history of fracture (P = .001), recent fall (P = .001), and a failed chair test (P = .029). The score points assigned to these risk factors were as follows: age, 2 (3 if age > 80 years); low quantitative US stiffness index, 5 (7.5 if stiffness index < 60%); history of fracture, 1; recent fall, 1.5; and failed chair test, 1. The cutoff value to obtain a high sensitivity (90%) was 4.5. With this cutoff, 1464 women were at lower risk (score, <4.5) and 4710 were at higher risk (score, >or=4.5) for fracture. Among the higher-risk women, 6.1% had an osteoporotic fracture, versus 1.8% of women at lower risk. Among the women who had a hip fracture, 90% were in the higher-risk group. CONCLUSION: A prediction rule obtained by using quantitative US stiffness index and four clinical risk factors helped discriminate, with high sensitivity, women at higher versus those at lower risk for osteoporotic fracture.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care: external validation of a clinical prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: The Marburg Heart Score (MHS) aims to assist GPs in safely ruling out coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients presenting with chest pain, and to guide management decisions. AIM: To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS in an independent sample and to evaluate the generalisability to new patients. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional diagnostic study with delayed-type reference standard in general practice in Hesse, Germany. METHOD: Fifty-six German GPs recruited 844 males and females aged ≥ 35 years, presenting between July 2009 and February 2010 with chest pain. Baseline data included the items of the MHS. Data on the subsequent course of chest pain, investigations, hospitalisations, and medication were collected over 6 months and were reviewed by an independent expert panel. CHD was the reference condition. Measures of diagnostic accuracy included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and predictive values. RESULTS: The AUC was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.80 to 0.88). For a cut-off value of 3, the MHS showed a sensitivity of 89.1% (95% CI = 81.1% to 94.0%), a specificity of 63.5% (95% CI = 60.0% to 66.9%), a positive predictive value of 23.3% (95% CI = 19.2% to 28.0%), and a negative predictive value of 97.9% (95% CI = 96.2% to 98.9%). CONCLUSION: Considering the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS, its generalisability, and ease of application, its use in clinical practice is recommended.

Assessment of early-stage optic nerve invasion in retinoblastoma using high-resolution 1.5 Tesla MRI with surface coils: a multicentre, prospective accuracy study with histopathological correlation.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the accuracy of high-resolution (HR) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in diagnosing early-stage optic nerve (ON) invasion in a retinoblastoma cohort. METHODS: This IRB-approved, prospective multicenter study included 95 patients (55 boys, 40 girls; mean age, 29 months). 1.5-T MRI was performed using surface coils before enucleation, including spin-echo unenhanced and contrast-enhanced (CE) T1-weighted sequences (slice thickness, 2 mm; pixel size <0.3 × 0.3 mm(2)). Images were read by five neuroradiologists blinded to histopathologic findings. ROC curves were constructed with AUC assessment using a bootstrap method. RESULTS: Histopathology identified 41 eyes without ON invasion and 25 with prelaminar, 18 with intralaminar and 12 with postlaminar invasion. All but one were postoperatively classified as stage I by the International Retinoblastoma Staging System. The accuracy of CE-T1 sequences in identifying ON invasion was limited (AUC = 0.64; 95 % CI, 0.55 - 0.72) and not confirmed for postlaminar invasion diagnosis (AUC = 0.64; 95 % CI, 0.47 - 0.82); high specificities (range, 0.64 - 1) and negative predictive values (range, 0.81 - 0.97) were confirmed. CONCLUSION: HR-MRI with surface coils is recommended to appropriately select retinoblastoma patients eligible for primary enucleation without the risk of IRSS stage II but cannot substitute for pathology in differentiating the first degrees of ON invasion. KEY POINTS: • HR-MRI excludes advanced optic nerve invasion with high negative predictive value. • HR-MRI accurately selects patients eligible for primary enucleation. • Diagnosis of early stages of optic nerve invasion still relies on pathology. • Several physiological MR patterns may mimic optic nerve invasion.

18F-fluorodeoxyglucose PET/CT findings in pleural effusions of patients with known cancer. A cytopathological correlation.

Aim: Pleural effusion is common in cancer patients and to determine its malignant origin is of huge clinical significance. PET/CT with 18F-FDG is of diagnostic value in staging and follow-up, but its ability to differentiate between malignant and benign effusions is not precisely known. Patients, methods: We examined 50 PET/CT from 47 patients (29 men, 18 women, 60±16 years) with pleural effusion and known cancer (24 NSCLC, 7 lymphomas, 5 breasts, 4 GIST, 3 mesotheliomas, 2 head and neck, 2 malignant teratoma, 1 colorectal, 1 oesophageal, 1 melanoma) for FDG uptake in the effusions using SUVmax. This was correlated to cytopathology performed after a median of 21 days (interquartile range -3 to 23), which included pH, relative distribution (macrophages, neutrophils, eosinophils, basophils, lymphocytes, plasmocytes), and absolute cell count. Results: Malignant cells were found in 17 effusions (34%) (6 NSCLC, 5 lymphomas, 2 breasts, 2 mesotheliomas, 2 malignant teratomas). SUV in malignant effusions were higher than in benign ones [3.7 (95%CI 1.8-5.6) vs. 1.7 g/ml (1.5-1.9), p = 0.001], with a correlation between malignant effusion and SUV (Spearman coefficient r = 0.50, p = 0.001), but not with other cytopathological or radiological parameters (ROC area 0.83±0.06). Using a 2.2-mg/l SUV threshold, 12 PET/CT studies were positive and 38 negative with sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 53%, 91%, 75% and 79%, respectively. For NSCLC only (n = 24), ROC area was 0.95±0.04, 7 studies were positive and 17 negative with a sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 83%, 89%, 71 and 94%, respectively. Conclusion: PET/CT may help to differentiate the malignant or benign origin of a pleural effusion with a high specificity in patients with known cancer, in particular NSCLC.

INTERMED predicts non-return to work in an occupational rehabilitation setting for individuals with orthopaedic trauma-part 2

Introduction.- The model presented in part I (19 predictors) had good predictive values for non-return to work 2 years after vocational rehabilitation for orthopaedic trauma. However, the number of predictors is high for the detection of patients at risk in a clinic. For example, the INTERMED for itself consists of 20 questions and needs 20 minutes to be filled in. For this reason, the aim of this study was to compare the predictive value of different models for the prediction of non-return to work.Patients and methods.- In this longitudinal prospective study, the cohort consisted of 2156 included inpatients with orthopaedic trauma attending a rehabilitation hospital after a work, traffic, sport or leisure related injury. Two years after discharge, 1502 patients returned a questionnaire regarding return to work. We compared the area under the receiver-operator-characteristics curve (ROC) between different models: INTERMED total score, the 4 partial INTERMED scores, the items of the most predictive partial score; with or without confounders.Results.- The ROC for the total score of the INTERMED plus the five confounders of the of the part one (qualified work, speaking French, lesion of upper extremity, education and age) was 0.72. The sole partial INTERMED score to predict return to work was the social sub score. The ROC for the five items of the latter sub score of the INTERMED was 0.69. The ROC for the five items of the social subscale of the INTERMED combined with five predictors was 0.73. This was significantly better than the use of only the five items from INTERMED alone (delta 0.034; 95% CI 0.017 to .050). The model presented in part I (INTERMED total score plus 18 predictors) was not significantly better than the five items INTERMED social score plus five confounders.Discussion.- The use of a model with ten variables (INTERMED social five items plus five confounders) has good predictive value to detect patients not returning to work after vocational rehabilitation after orthopaedic trauma. The parsimony of this model facilitates its use in a clinic for the detection of patients at risk.

Nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage management: evaluation with reduced iodine volume at CT angiography.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the technical quality and the diagnostic performance of a protocol with use of low volumes of contrast medium (25 mL) at 64-detector spiral computed tomography (CT) in the diagnosis and management of adult, nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was performed outside the United States and was approved by the institutional review board. Intracranial CT angiography was performed in 73 consecutive patients with nontraumatic SAH diagnosed at nonenhanced CT. Image quality was evaluated by two observers using two criteria: degree of arterial enhancement and venous contamination. The two independent readers evaluated diagnostic performance (lesion detection and correct therapeutic decision-making process) by using rotational angiographic findings as the standard of reference. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for patients who underwent CT angiography and three-dimensional rotational angiography. The intraclass correlation coefficient was calculated to assess interobserver concordance concerning aneurysm measurements and therapeutic management. RESULTS: All aneurysms were detected, either ruptured or unruptured. Arterial opacification was excellent in 62 cases (85%), and venous contamination was absent or minor in 61 cases (84%). In 95% of cases, CT angiographic findings allowed optimal therapeutic management. The intraclass correlation coefficient ranged between 0.93 and 0.95, indicating excellent interobserver agreement. CONCLUSION: With only 25 mL of iodinated contrast medium focused on the arterial phase, 64-detector CT angiography allowed satisfactory diagnostic and therapeutic management of nontraumatic SAH.

Time-Dependent Specificity of Immunopathologic (C4d-CD68) and Histologic Criteria of Antibody-Mediated Rejection for Donor-Specific Antibodies and Allograft Dysfunction in Heart Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: In heart transplantation, antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) is diagnosed and graded on the basis of immunopathologic (C4d-CD68) and histopathologic criteria found on endomyocardial biopsies (EMB). Because some pathologic AMR (pAMR) grades may be associated with clinical AMR, and because humoral responses may be affected by the intensity of immunosuppression during the first posttransplantation year, we investigated the incidence and positive predictive values (PPV) of C4d-CD68 and pAMR grades for clinical AMR as a function of time. METHODS: All 564 EMB from 40 adult heart recipients were graded for pAMR during the first posttransplantation year. Clinical AMR was diagnosed by simultaneous occurrence of pAMR on EMB, donor specific antibodies and allograft dysfunction. RESULTS: One patient demonstrated clinical AMR at postoperative day 7 and one at 6 months (1-year incidence 5%). C4d-CD68 was found on 4,7% EMB with a "decrescendo" pattern over time (7% during the first 4 months vs. 1.2% during the last 8 months; P < 0.05). Histopathologic criteria of AMR occurred on 10.3% EMB with no particular time pattern. Only the infrequent (1.4%) pAMR2 grade (simultaneous histopathologic and immunopathologic markers) was predictive for clinical AMR, particularly after the initial postoperative period (first 4 months and last 8 months PPV = 33%-100%; P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: In the first posttransplantation year, AMR immunopathologic and histopathologic markers were relatively frequent, but only their simultaneous occurrence (pAMR2) was predictive of clinical AMR. Furthermore, posttransplantation time may modulate the occurrence of C4d-CD68 on EMB and thus the incidence of pAMR2 and its relevance to the diagnosis of clinical AMR.

Can 3T multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging accurately detect prostate cancer extracapsular extension?

BACKGROUND: Accurate staging is essential to determine the correct management of patients diagnosed with prostate cancer. We assess the accuracy of 3T multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with endorectal coil (3TemMRI) in detecting prostate cancer local extension. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed charts from January 2008 to July 2012 from all patients undergoing radical prostatectomy. Patients were only included if 3TemMRI and radical prostatectomy were performed at our institution. Based on the presence of extracapsular extension (ECE) at 3TemMRI, prostate cancer was dichotomized into locally advanced or organ-confined disease. The accuracy of 3TemMRI local staging was then evaluated using definitive pathology as a reference. RESULTS: Overall, 177 radical prostatectomies were performed within the timeframe. After applying exclusion criteria, 60 patients were included in the final analysis. The mean patient age was 67 ± 7 (standard deviation) years. Mean prostate-specific antigen value was 12.7 ± 12.7 ng/L. Based on preoperative characteristics, we considered 38 of the 60 patients (63%) patients high risk. 3TemMRI identified an organ-confined tumour in 46 patients and locally advanced disease in 14 patients. When correlated to final pathology, 3TemMRI specificity, sensitivity, negative and positive predictive values, and accuracy in detecting locally advanced prostate cancer were 90%, 35%, 57%, 79% and 62%, respectively. INTERPRETATION: This study shows that the use of preoperative 3TemMRI can be used to identify organ-confined prostate cancer when locally advanced disease is suspected.

Assessment of cytomegalovirus-specific cell-mediated immunity for the prediction of cytomegalovirus disease in high-risk solid-organ transplant recipients: a multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease remains an important problem in solid-organ transplant recipients, with the greatest risk among donor CMV-seropositive, recipient-seronegative (D(+)/R(-)) patients. CMV-specific cell-mediated immunity may be able to predict which patients will develop CMV disease. METHODS: We prospectively included D(+)/R(-) patients who received antiviral prophylaxis. We used the Quantiferon-CMV assay to measure interferon-γ levels following in vitro stimulation with CMV antigens. The test was performed at the end of prophylaxis and 1 and 2 months later. The primary outcome was the incidence of CMV disease at 12 months after transplant. We calculated positive and negative predictive values of the assay for protection from CMV disease. RESULTS: Overall, 28 of 127 (22%) patients developed CMV disease. Of 124 evaluable patients, 31 (25%) had a positive result, 81 (65.3%) had a negative result, and 12 (9.7%) had an indeterminate result (negative mitogen and CMV antigen) with the Quantiferon-CMV assay. At 12 months, patients with a positive result had a subsequent lower incidence of CMV disease than patients with a negative and an indeterminate result (6.4% vs 22.2% vs 58.3%, respectively; P < .001). Positive and negative predictive values of the assay for protection from CMV disease were 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI], .74-.98) and 0.27 (95% CI, .18-.37), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This assay may be useful to predict if patients are at low, intermediate, or high risk for the development of subsequent CMV disease after prophylaxis. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00817908.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of antibodies against chimeric fibrin/filaggrin citrullinated synthetic peptides in rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction: Evidence suggests that citrullinated fibrin(ogen) may be a potential in vivo target of anticitrullinated protein/peptide antibodies (ACPA) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We compared the diagnostic yield of three enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests by using chimeric fibrin/filaggrin citrullinated synthetic peptides (CFFCP1, CFFCP2, CFFCP3) with a commercial CCP2-based test in RA and analyzed their prognostic values in early RA. Methods: Samples from 307 blood donors and patients with RA (322), psoriatic arthritis (133), systemic lupus erythematosus (119), and hepatitis C infection (84) were assayed by using CFFCP- and CCP2-based tests. Autoantibodies also were analyzed at baseline and during a 2-year follow-up in 98 early RA patients to determine their prognostic value. Results: With cutoffs giving 98% specificity for RA versus blood donors, the sensitivity was 72.1% for CFFCP1, 78.0% for CFFCP2, 71.4% for CFFCP3, and 73.9% for CCP2, with positive predictive values greater than 97% in all cases. CFFCP sensitivity in RA increased to 80.4% without losing specificity when positivity was considered as any positive anti-CFFCP status. Specificity of the three CFFCP tests versus other rheumatic populations was high (> 90%) and similar to those for the CCP2. In early RA, CFFCP1 best identified patients with a poor radiographic outcome. Radiographic progression was faster in the small subgroup of CCP2-negative and CFFCP1-positive patients than in those negative for both autoantibodies. CFFCP antibodies decreased after 1 year, but without any correlation with changes in disease activity. Conclusions: CFFCP-based assays are highly sensitive and specific for RA. Early RA patients with anti-CFFCP1 antibodies, including CCP2-negative patients, show greater radiographic progression.

Endorectal Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Spectroscopy Are Useful for Selecting Candidates for Biopsy among Patients with Persistently Elevated Prostate Specific Antigen

To evaluate the efficacy of endorectal Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and Magnetic Resonance Spetroscopic Imaging (MRSI) combined with total prostate-specific antigen (tPSA) and free prostate-specific antigen (fPSA) in selecting candidates for biopsy. Subjects and Methods: 246 patients with elevated tPSA (median: 7.81 ng/ml) underwent endorectal MRI and MRSI before Transrectal Ultrasound (TRUS) biopsy (10 peripheral + 2 central cores); patients with positive biopsies were treated with radical intention; those with negative biopsies were followed up and underwent MRSI before each additional biopsy if tPSA rose persistently. Mean follow-up: 27.6 months. We compared MRI, MRSI, tPSA, and fPSA with histopathology by sextant and determined the association between the Gleason score and MRI and MRSI. We determined the most accurate combination to detect prostate cancer (PCa) using receiver operating curves; we estimated the odds ratios (OR) and calculated sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Results: No difference in tPSA was found between patients with and without PCa (p = 0.551). In the peripheral zone, the risk of PCa increased with MRSI grade; patients with high-grade MRSI had the greatest risk of PCa over time (OR = 328.6); the model including MRI, MRSI, tPSA, and fPSA was more accurate (Area under Curve: AUC = 95.7%) than MRI alone (AUC = 85.1%) or fPSA alone (AUC = 78.1%), but not than MRSI alone (94.5%). In the transitional zone, the model was less accurate (AUC = 84.4%). The association (p = 0.005) between MRSI and Gleason score was significant in both zones. Conclusions: MRSI is useful in patients with elevated tPSA. High-grade MRSI lesions call for repeated biopsies. Men with negative MRSI may forgo further biopsies because a significantly high Gleason lesion is very unlikely

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) as a screening tool for excessive drinking in primary care: reliability and validity of a French version.

BACKGROUND: Excessive drinking is a major problem in Western countries. AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) is a 10-item questionnaire developed as a transcultural screening tool to detect excessive alcohol consumption and dependence in primary health care settings. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study is to validate a French version of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). METHODS: We conducted a validation cross-sectional study in three French-speaking areas (Paris, Geneva and Lausanne). We examined psychometric properties of AUDIT as its internal consistency, and its capacity to correctly diagnose alcohol abuse or dependence as defined by DSM-IV and to detect hazardous drinking (defined as alcohol intake >30 g pure ethanol per day for men and >20 g of pure ethanol per day for women). We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and Receiver Operator Characteristic curves. Finally, we compared the ability of AUDIT to accurately detect "alcohol abuse/dependence" with that of CAGE and MAST. RESULTS: 1207 patients presenting to outpatient clinics (Switzerland, n = 580) or general practitioners' (France, n = 627) successively completed CAGE, MAST and AUDIT self-administered questionnaires, and were independently interviewed by a trained addiction specialist. AUDIT showed a good capacity to discriminate dependent patients (with AUDIT > or =13 for males, sensitivity 70.1%, specificity 95.2%, PPV 85.7%, NPV 94.7% and for females sensitivity 94.7%, specificity 98.2%, PPV 100%, NPV 99.8%); and hazardous drinkers (with AUDIT > or =7, for males sensitivity 83.5%, specificity 79.9%, PPV 55.0%, NPV 82.7% and with AUDIT > or =6 for females, sensitivity 81.2%, specificity 93.7%, PPV 64.0%, NPV 72.0%). AUDIT gives better results than MAST and CAGE for detecting "Alcohol abuse/dependence" as showed on the comparative ROC curves. CONCLUSIONS: The AUDIT questionnaire remains a good screening instrument for French-speaking primary care.

Performance of parental history for the targeted screening of hypertension in children.

OBJECTIVES: Several guidelines recommend universal screening for hypertension in childhood and adolescence. Targeted screening to children with parental history of hypertension could be a more efficient strategy than universal screening. Therefore, we assessed the association between parental history of hypertension and hypertension in children, and estimated the sensitivity, specificity, negative, and positive predictive values of parental history of hypertension for hypertension in children. METHODS: The present study was a school-based cross-sectional study including 5207 children aged 10-14 years from all public 6th grade classes in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland. Children had hypertension if they had sustained elevated blood pressure over three separate visits. RESULTS: In children, the prevalence of hypertension was 2.2%. Some 8.5% of mothers and 12.9% of fathers reported to be hypertensive. Maternal history of hypertension (odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.2-3.3) and paternal history of hypertension (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.4-3.6) were independent risk factors for hypertension in children. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of parental history of hypertension for the identification of hypertension in children was low (from 4% for both parents' positive history up to 41% for at least one parent's positive history). Positive predictive values were also low (between 4 and 5%). CONCLUSION: Children with hypertensive parents were at higher risk of hypertension. Nevertheless, parental history of hypertension helped only marginally to identify hypertension in offspring. Targeting screening only toward children with a parental history of hypertension may not be a substantially better strategy to identify hypertension in children compared with universal screening.

3B.01: Performance of targeted screening for the identification of hypertension in children

OBJECTIVE: As universal screening of hypertension performs poorly in childhood, targeted screening to children at higher risk of hypertension has been proposed. Our goal was to assess the performance of combined parental history of hypertension and overweight/obesity to identify children with hypertension. We estimated the sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values of overweight/obesity and parental history of hypertension for the identification of hypertension in children. DESIGN AND METHOD: We analyzed data from a school-based cross-sectional study including 5207 children aged 10 to 14 years from all public 6th grade classes in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland. Blood pressure was measured with a clinically validated oscillometric automated device over up to three visits separated by one week. Children had hypertension if they had sustained elevated blood pressure over the three visits. Parents were interviewed about their history of hypertension. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypertension was 2.2%. 14% of children were overweight or obese and 20% had a positive history of hypertension in either or both parents. 30% of children had either or both conditions. After accounting for several potential confounding factors, parental history of hypertension (odds ratio (OR): 2.6; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8-4.0), overweight excluding obesity (OR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.5-4.2) and obesity (OR: 10.1; 95% CI: 6.0-17.0) were associated with hypertension in children. Considered in isolation, the sensitivity and positive predictive values of parental history of hypertension (respectively 41% and 5%) or overweight/obesity (respectively 43% and 7%) were relatively low. Nevertheless, considered together, the sensitivity of targeted screening in children with either overweight/obesity or paternal history of hypertension was higher (65%) but the positive predictive value remained low (5%). The negative predictive value was systematically high. CONCLUSIONS: Restricting screening of hypertension to children with either overweight/obesity or with hypertensive parents would substantially limit the proportion of children to screen (30%) and allow the identification of a relatively large proportion (65%) of hypertensive cases. That could be a valuable alternative to universal screening.