Utilização de dados fornecidos por satélites para determinação de riscos ambientais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Avaliação da erosão hídrica por meio da Equação Universal de Perda de Solo Modificada (MEUPS) na bacia hidrográfica do Ribeirão Jacutinga, Rio Claro (SP)

Water erosion is one of the main processes responsible for soil degradation, resulting in loss of parcels of land suitable for agriculture, to the loss of agricultural inputs and the resulting drift of pesticides and excess sediment to rivers, causing phenomena such as the siltation and eutrophication of water bodies. Such a scenario makes it necessary to perform work of a technical and scientific to provide subsidies to land-use planning, in order to protect natural resources biotic and abiotic. To develop this work is necessary to find a unit of analysis capable of integrating the different elements of the landscape, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere and lithosphere. Therefore we adopt for this work the watershed as main unit studies. From this question, this project will focus on the assessment of surface water erosion through MEUPS (Equation Modified Universal Soil Loss) predictive model. With the aid of maps, remote sensing products, and the use of geotechnology, this study aims to evaluate for the for Natural Erosion Potential the basin of the Jacutinga river, located in Rio Claro - SP

Ataques de onça-parda sobre criações domésticas no oeste do Estado de São Paulo

Pós-graduação em Biociências - FCLAS

Study of Micro Rotary Ultrasonic Machining

Product miniaturization for applications in fields such as biotechnology, medical devices, aerospace, optics and communications has made the advancement of micromachining techniques essential. Machining of hard and brittle materials such as ceramics, glass and silicon is a formidable task. Rotary ultrasonic machining (RUM) is capable of machining these materials. RUM is a hybrid machining process which combines the mechanism of material removal of conventional grinding and ultrasonic machining. Downscaling of RUM for micro scale machining is essential to generate miniature features or parts from hard and brittle materials. The goal of this thesis is to conduct a feasibility study and to develop a knowledge base for micro rotary ultrasonic machining (MRUM). Positive outcome of the feasibility study led to a comprehensive investigation on the effect of process parameters. The effect of spindle speed, grit size, vibration amplitude, tool geometry, static load and coolant on the material removal rate (MRR) of MRUM was studied. In general, MRR was found to increase with increase in spindle speed, vibration amplitude and static load. MRR was also noted to depend upon the abrasive grit size and tool geometry. The behavior of the cutting forces was modeled using time series analysis. Being a vibration assisted machining process, heat generation in MRUM is low which is essential for bone machining. Capability of MRUM process for machining bone tissue was investigated. Finally, to estimate the MRR a predictive model was proposed. The experimental and the theoretical results exhibited a matching trend.

Factors structuring Fucus communities at open and complex coastlines in the Baltic Sea

This thesis deals with physical factors and biological interactions affecting the distribution of two fucoid species, Fucus vesiculosus and F. serratus, in the Baltic Sea. Studies have been carried out in two quite different environments: an archipelago, and an open rocky coast. The archipelago has an extremely long coastline with a heterogeneous submerged landscape of different substrate types, slopes, water qualities, and degrees of wave exposure. The factors influencing F. vesiculosus distribution, morphology and epiphyte composition were studied in the Stockholm archipelago using field surveys and spatial modelling in Geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS-method to estimate wave exposure was developed and validated by comparing the result to an index based on vertical zonation of lichens. Wave exposure was considered an important factor for predicting the distribution of F. vesiculosus by its ability to clean hard surfaces from silt, and a predictive model was constructed based on the information of wave exposure and slope of the shore. It is suggested that the lower distribution boundary of attached F. vesiculosus is set by sediment in sheltered parts of the archipelago, and by light availability in highly wave exposed parts. The morphology of F. vesiculosus was studied over a wave exposure gradient, and several characters responded in accordance with earlier studies. However, when separating effects of wave exposure from effects of other confounding water property parameters, only thallus width was significantly different. Several water property parameters were shown to be correlated with wave exposure in the Stockholm archipelago, and the mechanism responsible for the effects on F. vesiculosus morphology is discussed. The composition of epiphytes on F. vesiculosus varied over a wave exposure gradient with a positive correlation to Elachista fucicola, and a negative to Chorda filum. At an open coast the physical environment is much less heterogeneous compared to an archipelago. The distributions of F. vesiculosus, F. serratus, turf-forming algae, and the seafloor substrate, were surveyed along the open coasts of Öland and Gotland. Turf-forming algae dominated all hard substrates in the area, and Polysiphonia fucoides was most abundant. At the Gotland coast F. vesiculosus was less abundant than at the Öland coast, and F. serratus occurred only in the southern-most part. Fucus serratus was increasingly more common towards south which was interpreted as an effect mainly of the Baltic salinity gradient, or the variation of salinity that has occurred in the past. The effects of turf-forming algae and sediment on F. serratus recruitment at 7 m depth off the Öland east coast were studied in the field, and by laboratory experiments. Almost no recruits were found in the algal turf outside the F. serratus patches. More fine sediment was found in the turf than in the F. serratus patches, suggesting that the turf accumulates sediment by decreasing resuspension. Both filamentous algae and sediment decreased the attachment ability of F. serratus zygotes and survival of recruits, and sediment had the strongest effect. It is therefore suggested that F. serratus has difficulties recruiting outside its patches, and that these difficulties are enforced by the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, which has favoured growth of filamentous algae and increased sedimentation. An overall conclusion is that Fucus distribution is affected by large-scale-factors, such as the eutrophication and salinity changes of the Baltic Sea, as well as by small-scale variation in wave exposure, substrate and slope, and by surface competition with neighbouring species.

An New Energetic Approach to the Modeling of Human Joint Kinematics: Application to the Ankle

The objective of this dissertation is to develop and test a predictive model for the passive kinematics of human joints based on the energy minimization principle. To pursue this goal, the tibio-talar joint is chosen as a reference joint, for the reduced number of bones involved and its simplicity, if compared with other sinovial joints such as the knee or the wrist. Starting from the knowledge of the articular surface shapes, the spatial trajectory of passive motion is obtained as the envelop of joint configurations that maximize the surfaces congruence. An increase in joint congruence corresponds to an improved capability of distributing an applied load, allowing the joint to attain a better strength with less material. Thus, joint congruence maximization is a simple geometric way to capture the idea of joint energy minimization. The results obtained are validated against in vitro measured trajectories. Preliminary comparison provide strong support for the predictions of the theoretical model.

Analysis and modelling of the performance of technologies for flue gas treatment in Waste-to-Energy processes

Waste management represents an important issue in our society and Waste-to-Energy incineration plants have been playing a significant role in the last decades, showing an increased importance in Europe. One of the main issues posed by waste combustion is the generation of air contaminants. Particular concern is present about acid gases, mainly hydrogen chloride and sulfur oxides, due to their potential impact on the environment and on human health. Therefore, in the present study the main available technological options for flue gas treatment were analyzed, focusing on dry treatment systems, which are increasingly applied in Municipal Solid Wastes (MSW) incinerators. An operational model was proposed to describe and optimize acid gas removal process. It was applied to an existing MSW incineration plant, where acid gases are neutralized in a two-stage dry treatment system. This process is based on the injection of powdered calcium hydroxide and sodium bicarbonate in reactors followed by fabric filters. HCl and SO2 conversions were expressed as a function of reactants flow rates, calculating model parameters from literature and plant data. The implementation in a software for process simulation allowed the identification of optimal operating conditions, taking into account the reactant feed rates, the amount of solid products and the recycle of the sorbent. Alternative configurations of the reference plant were also assessed. The applicability of the operational model was extended developing also a fundamental approach to the issue. A predictive model was developed, describing mass transfer and kinetic phenomena governing the acid gas neutralization with solid sorbents. The rate controlling steps were identified through the reproduction of literature data, allowing the description of acid gas removal in the case study analyzed. A laboratory device was also designed and started up to assess the required model parameters.

Sviluppo di metodologie innovative di supporto decisionale alla progettazione basate su indicatori di prestazione

Il progetto di ricerca è finalizzato allo sviluppo di una metodologia innovativa di supporto decisionale nel processo di selezione tra alternative progettuali, basata su indicatori di prestazione. In particolare il lavoro si è focalizzato sulla definizione d’indicatori atti a supportare la decisione negli interventi di sbottigliamento di un impianto di processo. Sono stati sviluppati due indicatori, “bottleneck indicators”, che permettono di valutare la reale necessità dello sbottigliamento, individuando le cause che impediscono la produzione e lo sfruttamento delle apparecchiature. Questi sono stati validati attraverso l’applicazione all’analisi di un intervento su un impianto esistente e verificando che lo sfruttamento delle apparecchiature fosse correttamente individuato. Definita la necessità dell’intervento di sbottigliamento, è stato affrontato il problema della selezione tra alternative di processo possibili per realizzarlo. È stato applicato alla scelta un metodo basato su indicatori di sostenibilità che consente di confrontare le alternative considerando non solo il ritorno economico degli investimenti ma anche gli impatti su ambiente e sicurezza, e che è stato ulteriormente sviluppato in questa tesi. Sono stati definiti due indicatori, “area hazard indicators”, relativi alle emissioni fuggitive, per integrare questi aspetti nell’analisi della sostenibilità delle alternative. Per migliorare l’accuratezza nella quantificazione degli impatti è stato sviluppato un nuovo modello previsionale atto alla stima delle emissioni fuggitive di un impianto, basato unicamente sui dati disponibili in fase progettuale, che tiene conto delle tipologie di sorgenti emettitrici, dei loro meccanismi di perdita e della manutenzione. Validato mediante il confronto con dati sperimentali di un impianto produttivo, si è dimostrato che tale metodo è indispensabile per un corretto confronto delle alternative poiché i modelli esistenti sovrastimano eccessivamente le emissioni reali. Infine applicando gli indicatori ad un impianto esistente si è dimostrato che sono fondamentali per semplificare il processo decisionale, fornendo chiare e precise indicazioni impiegando un numero limitato di informazioni per ricavarle.

Two to twenty-year survivorship of the hip in 810 patients with operatively treated acetabular fractures

The aims of the study were (1) to determine the cumulative two to twenty-year survivorship of the hip after open reduction and internal fixation of displaced acetabular fractures, (2) to identify factors predicting conversion to total hip arthroplasty or hip arthrodesis, and (3) to create a predictive model that calculates an individual's probability of early need for total hip arthroplasty or hip arthrodesis.

Structure-activity relationships from in vitro efficacies of the thiazolide series against the intracellular apicomplexan protozoan Neospora caninum

Nitazoxanide (2-acetolyloxy-N-(5-nitro 2-thiazolyl) benzamide; NTZ) represents the parent compound of a novel class of broad-spectrum anti-parasitic compounds named thiazolides. NTZ is active against a wide variety of intestinal and tissue-dwelling helminths, protozoa, enteric bacteria and a number of viruses infecting animals and humans. While potent, this poses a problem in practice, since this obvious non-selectivity can lead to undesired side effects in both humans and animals. In this study, we used real time PCR to determine the in vitro activities of 29 different thiazolides (NTZ-derivatives), which carry distinct modifications on both the thiazole- and the benzene moieties, against the tachyzoite stage of the intracellular protozoan Neospora caninum. The goal was to identify a highly active compound lacking the undesirable nitro group, which would have a more specific applicability, such as in food animals. By applying self-organizing molecular field analysis (SOMFA), these data were used to develop a predictive model for future drug design. SOMFA performs self-alignment of the molecules, and takes into account the steric and electrostatic properties, in order to determine 3D-quantitative structure activity relationship models. The best model was obtained by overlay of the thiazole moieties. Plotting of predicted versus experimentally determined activity produced an r2 value of 0.8052 and cross-validation using the "leave one out" methodology resulted in a q2 value of 0.7987. A master grid map showed that large steric groups at the R2 position, the nitrogen of the amide bond and position Y could greatly reduce activity, and the presence of large steric groups placed at positions X, R4 and surrounding the oxygen atom of the amide bond, may increase the activity of thiazolides against Neospora caninum tachyzoites. The model obtained here will be an important predictive tool for future development of this important class of drugs.

Concordance Probability and Discriminatory Power in Proportional Hazards Regression

The concordance probability is used to evaluate the discriminatory power and the predictive accuracy of nonlinear statistical models. We derive an analytic expression for the concordance probability in the Cox proportional hazards model. The proposed estimator is a function of the regression parameters and the covariate distribution only and does not use the observed event and censoring times. For this reason it is asymptotically unbiased, unlike Harrell's c-index based on informative pairs. The asymptotic distribution of the concordance probability estimate is derived using U-statistic theory and the methodology is applied to a predictive model in lung cancer.

Visual exploration in Parkinson's disease and Parkinson's disease dementia

Parkinson's disease, typically thought of as a movement disorder, is increasingly recognized as causing cognitive impairment and dementia. Eye movement abnormalities are also described, including impairment of rapid eye movements (saccades) and the fixations interspersed between them. Such movements are under the influence of cortical and subcortical networks commonly targeted by the neurodegeneration seen in Parkinson's disease and, as such, may provide a marker for cognitive decline. This study examined the error rates and visual exploration strategies of subjects with Parkinson's disease, with and without cognitive impairment, whilst performing a battery of visuo-cognitive tasks. Error rates were significantly higher in those Parkinson's disease groups with either mild cognitive impairment (P = 0.001) or dementia (P < 0.001), than in cognitively normal subjects with Parkinson's disease. When compared with cognitively normal subjects with Parkinson's disease, exploration strategy, as measured by a number of eye tracking variables, was least efficient in the dementia group but was also affected in those subjects with Parkinson's disease with mild cognitive impairment. When compared with control subjects and cognitively normal subjects with Parkinson's disease, saccade amplitudes were significantly reduced in the groups with mild cognitive impairment or dementia. Fixation duration was longer in all Parkinson's disease groups compared with healthy control subjects but was longest for cognitively impaired Parkinson's disease groups. The strongest predictor of average fixation duration was disease severity. Analysing only data from the most complex task, with the highest error rates, both cognitive impairment and disease severity contributed to a predictive model for fixation duration [F(2,76) = 12.52, P ≤ 0.001], but medication dose did not (r = 0.18, n = 78, P = 0.098, not significant). This study highlights the potential use of exploration strategy measures as a marker of cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease and reveals the efficiency by which fixations and saccades are deployed in the build-up to a cognitive response, rather than merely focusing on the outcome itself. The prolongation of fixation duration, present to a small but significant degree even in cognitively normal subjects with Parkinson's disease, suggests a disease-specific impact on the networks directing visual exploration, although the study also highlights the multi-factorial nature of changes in exploration and the significant impact of cognitive decline on efficiency of visual search.

Improving the accuracy of radiation pneumonitis dose response models

The prognosis for lung cancer patients remains poor. Five year survival rates have been reported to be 15%. Studies have shown that dose escalation to the tumor can lead to better local control and subsequently better overall survival. However, dose to lung tumor is limited by normal tissue toxicity. The most prevalent thoracic toxicity is radiation pneumonitis. In order to determine a safe dose that can be delivered to the healthy lung, researchers have turned to mathematical models predicting the rate of radiation pneumonitis. However, these models rely on simple metrics based on the dose-volume histogram and are not yet accurate enough to be used for dose escalation trials. The purpose of this work was to improve the fit of predictive risk models for radiation pneumonitis and to show the dosimetric benefit of using the models to guide patient treatment planning. The study was divided into 3 specific aims. The first two specifics aims were focused on improving the fit of the predictive model. In Specific Aim 1 we incorporated information about the spatial location of the lung dose distribution into a predictive model. In Specific Aim 2 we incorporated ventilation-based functional information into a predictive pneumonitis model. In the third specific aim a proof of principle virtual simulation was performed where a model-determined limit was used to scale the prescription dose. The data showed that for our patient cohort, the fit of the model to the data was not improved by incorporating spatial information. Although we were not able to achieve a significant improvement in model fit using pre-treatment ventilation, we show some promising results indicating that ventilation imaging can provide useful information about lung function in lung cancer patients. The virtual simulation trial demonstrated that using a personalized lung dose limit derived from a predictive model will result in a different prescription than what was achieved with the clinically used plan; thus demonstrating the utility of a normal tissue toxicity model in personalizing the prescription dose.

Prediction of Benthic Impact for Salmon Net-Pens Based on the Balance of Benthic Oxygen Supply and Demand

The ratio between oxygen supply and oxygen demand was examined as a predictor of benthic response to organic enrichment caused by salmon net-pen aquaculture. Oxygen supply to the benthos was calculated based on Fickian diffusion and near-bottom flow velocities. A strong linear correlation was found between measured carbon sedimentation rates and rates of benthic metabolism. This relationship allowed an estimation of oxygen demand based on sedimentation rates. Comparison of several production sites in Maine (USA) coastal waters showed that for sites where oxygen demand exceeded supply benthic impacts were high and for sites where oxygen supply exceeded demand benthic impacts were low. These findings were summarized in the form of a predictive model that should be useful in siting salmon production facilities.

Are functional and genetic components of platelets linked to coronary artery disease: A case-control study

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a multifactorial disease process involving behavioral, inflammatory, clinical, thrombotic, and genetic components. Previous epidemiologic studies focused on identifying behavioral and demographic risk factors of CAD, but none focused on platelets. Current platelet literature lacks the known effects of platelet function and platelet receptor polymorphisms on CAD. This case-control analysis addressed these issues by analyzing data collected for a previous study. Cases were individuals who had undergone CABG and thus had been diagnosed with CAD, while the controls were volunteers presumed to be CAD free. The platelet function variables analyzed included fibrinogen Von Willebrand Factor activity (VWF), shear-induced platelet aggregation (SIPA), sCD40L, and mean platelet volume; and the platelet polymorphisms studied included PIA, α2 807, Ko, Kozak, and VNTR. Univariate analysis found fibrinogen, VWF, SIPA, and PIA to be independent risk factors of CAD. Logistic regression was used to build a predictive model for CAD using the platelet function and platelet polymorphism data adjusted for age, sex, race, and current smoking status. A model containing only platelet polymorphisms and their respective receptor densities, found polymorphisms within GPIbα to be associated with CAD, yielding an 86% (95% C.I. 0.97–3.55) increased risk with the presence of at least 1 polymorphism in Ko, Kozak, or VNTR. Another model included both platelet function and platelet polymorphism data. Fibrinogen, the receptor density of GPIbα, and the polymorphism in GPIa-IIa (α2 807) were all associated with CAD with odds ratios of 1.10, 1.04, and 2.30 for fibrinogen (10mg/dl increase), GPIbα receptors (1 MFI increase), and GPIa-IIa, respectively. In addition, risk estimates and 99% confidence intervals adjusted for race were calculated to determine if the presence of a platelet receptor polymorphism was associated with CAD. The results were as follows: PIA (1.64, 0.74–3.65); α2 807 (1.35, 0.77–2.37); Ko (1.71, 0.70–4.16); Kozak (1.17, 0.54–2.52); and VNTR (1.24, 0.52–2.91). Although not statistically significant, all platelet polymorphisms were associated with an increased risk for CAD. These exploratory findings indicate that platelets do appear to have a role in atherosclerosis and that anti-platelet drugs targeting GPI-IIa and GPIbα may be better treatment candidates for individuals with CAD. ^