Age above 60 years is not a negative predictive factor for combined antiviral therapy with pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin in hepatitis C patients

Background: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral hepatitis C therapy. However, elderly patients often show relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis which is a known negative predictive factor, making it difficult to interpret age as an independent predictive factor. Methods: From the framework of the Swiss hepatitis C cohort (SCCS), we collected data from 545 antiviral hepatitis C therapies, including data from 67 hepatitis C patients ≥ 60 y who had been treated with PEG-interferon and ribavirin. We analyzed host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, depression, earlier hepatitis C treatment), viral factors (genotype, viral load) and treatment course (early virological response, end of treatment response, SVR). Generalised estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling was used for the primary end point (SVR), with age ≥ 60 y and < 60 y as independent variable and gender, presence of cirrhosis, genotype, earlier treatment and viral load as confounders. SVR was analysed in young and elderly patients after matching for these confounders. Additionally, classification tree analysis was done in elderly patients using these confounders. Results: SVR analyzed in 545 patients was 55%. In genotype 1/4, SVR was 42.9% in 259 patients < 60 y and 26.1% in 46 patients ≥ 60 y. In genotype 2/3, SVR was 74.4% in 215 patients < 60 y and 84% in 25 patients ≥ 60 y. However, GEE model showed that age had no influence on achieving SVR (Odds ratio 0.91). Confounders influenced SVR as known from previous studies (cirrhosis, genotype 1/4, previous treatment and viral load >600'000 IE/ml as negative predictive factors). When young and elderly patients were matched (analysis in 59 elderly patients), SVR was not different in these patient groups (54.2% and 55.9%, resp.; p=0.795 in binomial test). The classification tree-derived best criterion for SVR in elderly patients was genotype, with no further criteria relevant for predicting SVR in genotype 2/3. In patients with genotype 1/4, further criteria were presence of cirrhosis and low viral load <600'000 IE/ml in non-cirrhotic patients. Conclusions: Age is not a relevant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when confounders were taken into account. In terms of effectiveness of antiviral therapy, age does not play a major role and should not be regarded as relevant negative predictive factor. Since life expectancy in Switzerland at age 60 is more than 22 y, hepatitis C therapy is reasonable in elderly patients with known relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis, because interferon-based hepatitis C therapy improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.

Valeur prédictive de la surexpression/ amplification de Her2/neu pour un traitement ciblé du cancer du sein [Predictive value of Her2/neu expression/amplification for the targeted treatment of breast cancer]

Her2/neu is a tyrosine kinase receptor which stimulates cell growth. The receptor is overexpressed in about 20% of breast cancers. Her2/neu expression is an indicator of poor prognosis but also the target of the treatment of breast cancer using humanised anti-Her2/ neu antibodies. Only cancers overexpressing the protein will respond to this therapy, but which has significant (cardiac) side effects and is expensive. It is therefore important to test for the overexpression of the protein on breast cancer cells. This paper discusses how this can be done and ongoing research into new therapeutic options targeting the involved signaling pathways.

Testing the predictive adaptive response in a host-parasite system

1. Harsh environmental conditions experienced during development can reduce the performance of the same individuals in adulthood. However, the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis postulates that if individuals adapt their phenotype during development to the environments where they are likely to live in the future, individuals exposed to harsh conditions in early life perform better when encountering the same harsh conditions in adulthood compared to those never exposed to these conditions before. 2. Using the common vole (Microtus arvalis) as study organism, we tested how exposure to flea parasitism during the juvenile stage affects the physiology (haematocrit, resistance to oxidative stress, resting metabolism, spleen mass, and testosterone), morphology (body mass, testis mass) and motor performance (open field activity and swimming speed) of the same individuals when infested with fleas in adulthood. According to the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis, we predicted that voles parasitized at the adult stage would perform better if they had already been parasitized with fleas at the juvenile stage. 3. We found that voles exposed to fleas in adulthood had a higher metabolic rate if already exposed to fleas when juvenile, compared to voles free of fleas when juvenile and voles free of fleas in adulthood. Independently of juvenile parasitism, adult parasitism impaired adult haematocrit and motor performances. Independently of adult parasitism, juvenile parasitism slowed down crawling speed in adult female voles. 4. Our results suggest that juvenile parasitism has long-term effects that do not protect from the detrimental effects of adult parasitism. On the contrary, experiencing parasitism in early-life incurs additional costs upon adult parasitism measured in terms of higher energy expenditure, rather than inducing an adaptive shift in the developmental trajectory. 5. Hence, our study provides experimental evidence for long term costs of parasitism. We found no support for a predictive adaptive response in this host-parasite system.

Predictive factors of adrenal insufficiency in patients admitted to acute medical wards: a case control study.

BACKGROUND: Adrenal insufficiency is a rare and potentially lethal disease if untreated. Several clinical signs and biological markers are associated with glucocorticoid failure but the importance of these factors for diagnosing adrenal insufficiency is not known. In this study, we aimed to assess the prevalence of and the factors associated with adrenal insufficiency among patients admitted to an acute internal medicine ward. METHODS: Retrospective, case-control study including all patients with high-dose (250 μg) ACTH-stimulation tests for suspected adrenal insufficiency performed between 2008 and 2010 in an acute internal medicine ward (n = 281). Cortisol values <550 nmol/l upon ACTH-stimulation test were considered diagnostic for adrenal insufficiency. Area under the ROC curve (AROC), sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values for adrenal insufficiency were assessed for thirteen symptoms, signs and biological variables. RESULTS: 32 patients (11.4%) presented adrenal insufficiency; the others served as controls. Among all clinical and biological parameters studied, history of glucocorticoid withdrawal was the only independent factor significantly associated with patients with adrenal insufficiency (Odds Ratio: 6.71, 95% CI: 3.08 -14.62). Using a logistic regression, a model with four significant and independent variable was obtained, regrouping history of glucocorticoid withdrawal (OR 7.38, 95% CI [3.18 ; 17.11], p-value <0.001), nausea (OR 3.37, 95% CI [1.03 ; 11.00], p-value 0.044), eosinophilia (OR 17.6, 95% CI [1.02; 302.3], p-value 0.048) and hyperkalemia (OR 2.41, 95% CI [0.87; 6.69], p-value 0.092). The AROC (95% CI) was 0.75 (0.70; 0.80) for this model, with 6.3 (0.8 - 20.8) for sensitivity and 99.2 (97.1 - 99.9) for specificity. CONCLUSIONS: 11.4% of patients with suspected adrenal insufficient admitted to acute medical ward actually do present with adrenal insufficiency, defined by an abnormal response to high-dose (250 μg) ACTH-stimulation test. A history of glucocorticoid withdrawal was the strongest factor predicting the potential adrenal failure. The combination of a history of glucocorticoid withdrawal, nausea, eosinophilia and hyperkaliemia might be of interest to suspect adrenal insufficiency.

Gene expression profiling of human glioblastomas for the identification of predictive factors and characterisation of molecular mechanism implicated in response to therapy and outcome

ABSTRACT Poor outcome for glioblastoma patients is largely due to resistance to chemoradiation therapy. While epigenetic inactivation of MGMT mediated DNA repair is highly predictive for benefit from the alkylating agent therapy Temozolomide, additional mechanisms for resistance associated with molecular alterations exist. Furthermore, new concepts in cancer suggest that resistance to treatment may be linked to cancer stem cells that escape therapy and act as source for tumour recurrence. We determined gene expression signatures associated with outcome in glioblastoma patients enrolled in a phase II and phase III clinical trial establishing the new combination therapy of radiation plus concomitant and adjuvant Temozolomide. Correlating stable gene clusters emerging from unsupervised analysis with survival of 42 treated patients identified a number of biological processes associated with outcome. Most prominent, a gene cluster dominated by HOX genes and comprising PROM1, was associated with resistance. PROM1 encodes CD133, a marker for a subpopulation of tumour cells enriched for glioblastoma stem- like cells. The core of this correlated HOX cluster was comprised in the top genes of a "self-renewal signature" defined in a mouse model for MLL-AF9 initiated leukaemia. The association of the HOX gene cluster with tumour resistance was confirmed in two external data sets of 146 malignant glioma As additional resistance factors we identified over-expression of the epidermal growth factor receptor gene, EGFR, while increased gene expression related to biological features of tumour host interaction, including markers for tumour vascular and cell adhesion, and innate immune response, were associated with better outcome. The "self-renewal" signature associated with resistance to the new combination chemoradiation therapy provides first clinical evidence that glioma stem like cells may implicated in resistance in a uniformly treated cohort of glioblastoma patients. This study underlines the need to target the tumour stem cell compartment, and provides some testable hypothesis for biological mechanisms relevant for malignant behaviour of glioblastoma that may be targeted in new treatment approaches. Résumé Le glioblastome, tumeur cérébrale primaire maligne la plus fréquente, est connue pour son mauvais pronostique. Des avancées chimiothérapeutiques récentes avec des agents alkylants comme le témozolomide (TMZ), ont permis une amélioration notable dans la survie de certains patients. Les bénéficiaires ont la caractéristique commune de présenter une particularité génétique, la methylation du MGMT (methylguanine methyltransferase). Néanmoins, d'autres mécanismes de résistance en fonction des aberrations moléculaires existent. Nous avons établi les profils d'expressions génétiques des patients traités par irradiation et TMZ dans des études cliniques de phase II et III. En combinant des méthodes non-supervisées et supervisées, de l'étude de la cohorte des patients traités nous avons découvert des groupes de gènes associés à la survie. Un ensemble de gènes contenant les gènes Hox semble lié au mécanisme de résistance au traitement. Récemment, les gènes Hox ont été décrits comme faisant partie d"une signature d'autorenouvellement (self-renewal) des cellules souches cancéreuses de la leucémie. L'autorenouvellement est un processus grâce auquel les cellules souches se maintiennent tout au long de la vie. Cette association à la résistance est confirmée dans deux autres études indépendantes. Un autre facteur de résistance au traitement est la surexpression du gène EGFR. D'autre part, deux groupes de gènes associés à la relation entre hôte-tumeur tels que les marqueurs des vaisseaux tumoraux et de la réponse immunitaire innée s'avèrent avoir un effet positif sur la survie des patients traités. La découverte de la signature d'autorenouvellement comme facteur de résistance à la nouvelle chimio-radiothérapie offre une preuve clinique que les cellules souches cancéreuses sont impliquées dans la résistance au traitement. If est donc logique de penser que le traitement ciblé contre des cellules souches cancéreuses va dans l'avenir permettre des thérapies anticancéreuses plus performantes.

Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

LIF and sIL-2R plasma concentrations in IVF patients on the day of embryo transfer: predictive markers of IVF outcome.

Successful implantation is still the limiting step in IVF. We hypothesized that maternal plasma concentrations of certain cytokines at the time of embryo transfer could predict the likelihood of successful implantation and pregnancy. sIL-2R, IL-6, LIF, and MMP2 concentrations were measured in plasma from 160 IVF patients (natural and stimulated IVF cycles) on the morning of the embryo transfer (ET0) and 14days later (ET+14). Patients were ultimately subdivided into four groups depending on the IVF treatment outcome (pregnancy failure, biochemical pregnancy, first-trimester miscarriage and normal term delivery). In natural and stimulated IVF cycles at ET0, sIL-2R concentrations were threefold higher in biochemical pregnancies than in pregnancy failures (P=0.020), and in natural cycles only, 2.5-fold higher in normal term deliveries than in pregnancy failures (P=0.023). Conversely, in natural and stimulated IVF cycles at ET0, LIF concentrations were one third lower in biochemical pregnancies/first-trimester miscarriages compared with pregnancy failures (P=0.042). We suggest that high sIL-2R and low LIF concentrations in maternal plasma on the morning of the embryo transfer might be associated with increased risks of early pregnancy loss, while a basal level of sIL-2R is necessary for normal term delivery outcome. Both cytokine measurements might therefore be useful in the management of IVF patients, and modulation of their concentrations could be investigated as a therapeutic alternative for women with abnormal concentrations at the time of embryo transfer.

Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita: A predictive density approach

The paper proposes a technique to jointly test for groupings of unknown size in the cross sectional dimension of a panel and estimates the parameters of each group, and applies it to identifying convergence clubs in income per-capita. The approach uses the predictive density of the data, conditional on the parameters of the model. The steady state distribution of European regional data clusters around four poles of attraction with different economic features. The distribution of incomeper-capita of OECD countries has two poles of attraction and each grouphas clearly identifiable economic characteristics.

MGMT promoter methylation is prognostic but not predictive for outcome to adjuvant PCV chemotherapy in anaplastic oligodendroglial tumors: a report from EORTC Brain Tumor Group Study 26951.

PURPOSE: O6-methylguanine-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation has been shown to predict survival of patients with glioblastomas if temozolomide is added to radiotherapy (RT). It is unknown if MGMT promoter methylation is also predictive to outcome to RT followed by adjuvant procarbazine, lomustine, and vincristine (PCV) chemotherapy in patients with anaplastic oligodendroglial tumors (AOT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer study 26951, 368 patients with AOT were randomly assigned to either RT alone or to RT followed by adjuvant PCV. From 165 patients of this study, formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor tissue was available for MGMT promoter methylation analysis. This was investigated with methylation specific multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification. RESULTS: In 152 cases, an MGMT result was obtained, in 121 (80%) cases MGMT promoter methylation was observed. Methylation strongly correlated with combined loss of chromosome 1p and 19q loss (P = .00043). In multivariate analysis, MGMT promoter methylation, 1p/19q codeletion, tumor necrosis, and extent of resection were independent prognostic factors. The prognostic significance of MGMT promoter methylation was equally strong in the RT arm and the RT/PCV arm for both progression-free survival and overall survival. In tumors diagnosed at central pathology review as glioblastoma, no prognostic effect of MGMT promoter methylation was observed. CONCLUSION: In this study, on patients with AOT MGMT promoter methylation was of prognostic significance and did not have predictive significance for outcome to adjuvant PCV chemotherapy. The biologic effect of MGMT promoter methylation or pathogenetic features associated with MGMT promoter methylation may be different for AOT compared with glioblastoma.

Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

A test of the predictive validity of non-linear QALY models using time trade-off utilities

This paper presents a test of the predictive validity of various classes ofQALY models (i.e., linear, power and exponential models). We first estimatedTTO utilities for 43 EQ-5D chronic health states and next these states wereembedded in health profiles. The chronic TTO utilities were then used topredict the responses to TTO questions with health profiles. We find that thepower QALY model clearly outperforms linear and exponential QALY models.Optimal power coefficient is 0.65. Our results suggest that TTO-based QALYcalculations may be biased. This bias can be avoided using a power QALY model.

The predictive value of trabecular bone score (TBS) on whole lumbar vertebrae mechanics: an ex vivo study.

We investigated the association of trabecular bone score (TBS) with microarchitecture and mechanical behavior of human lumbar vertebrae. We found that TBS reflects vertebral trabecular microarchitecture and is an independent predictor of vertebral mechanics. However, the addition of TBS to areal BMD (aBMD) did not significantly improve prediction of vertebral strength. INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level measure of texture using a modified experimental variogram which can be extracted from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. The current study aimed to confirm whether TBS is associated with trabecular microarchitecture and mechanics of human lumbar vertebrae, and if its combination with BMD improves prediction of fracture risk. METHODS: Lumbar vertebrae (L3) were harvested fresh from 16 donors. The anteroposterior and lateral bone mineral content (BMC) and areal BMD (aBMD) of the vertebral body were measured using DXA; then, the TBS was extracted using TBS iNsight software (Medimaps SA, France). The trabecular bone volume (Tb.BV/tissue volume, TV), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), degree of anisotropy, and structure model index (SMI) were measured using microcomputed tomography. Quasi-static uniaxial compressive testing was performed on L3 vertebral bodies to assess failure load and stiffness. RESULTS: The TBS was significantly correlated to Tb.BV/TV and SMI (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.58 and -0.62; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.02, 0.01), but not related to BMC and BMD. TBS was significantly correlated with stiffness (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.64; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.007), independently of bone mass. Using stepwise multiple regression models, we failed to demonstrate that the combination of BMD and TBS was better at explaining mechanical behavior than either variable alone. However, the combination TBS, Tb.Th, and BMC did perform better than each parameter alone, explaining 79 % of the variability in stiffness. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, TBS was associated with microarchitecture parameters and with vertebral mechanical behavior, but TBS did not improve prediction of vertebral biomechanical properties in addition to aBMD.

The predictive value of preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide in children undergooing heart surgery.

Introduction: Low cardiac output syndrome is frequent in childrenafter heart surgery for congenital heart disease and may result in pooroutcome and increased morbidity. In the adult population, preoperativebrain natriuretic peptide (BNP) was shown to be predictive of postoperative complications. In children, the value of preoperative BNP onpostoperative outcome is not so clear. The aim of this study was todetermine the predictive value of preoperative BNP on postoperativeoutcome and low cardiac output syndrome in children after heartsurgery for congenital heart disease.Methods: We examined, retrospectively, the postoperative course of97 pediatric patients (mean age 3.7 years, range 0-14 years old) whounderwent heart surgery in a tertiary care pediatric intensive caresetting. NTproBNP was measured preoperatively in all patients(median 412 pg/ml, range 12-35'000 pg/ml). Patients were divided intothree groups according to their NTproBNP levels (group 1: 0-300 pg/ml, group 2: 300-600 pg/ml, group 3: >600 pg/ml) and then,correlations with postoperative outcomes were examined.Results: We found that patients with a high preoperative BNP requiredmore frequently prolonged (>2 days) mechanical ventilation (33%vs 40% vs 61%, p = 0.045) and stayed more frequently longer than6 days in the intensive care unit (42% vs 50% vs 71%, p = 0.03).However, high preoperative BNP was not correlated with occurrenceof low cardiac output syndrome.Conclusion: Preoperative BNP cannot be used, in children, as areliable and sole predictor of postoperative low cardiac outputsyndrome. However it may help identify, before surgery, those patientsat risk of having a difficult postoperative course.

Predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in metastatic melanoma patients receiving first-line temozolomide plus bevacizumab in the trial SAKK 50/07.

The O6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status is a predictive parameter for the response of malignant gliomas to alkylating agents such as temozolomide. First clinical trials with temozolomide plus bevacizumab therapy in metastatic melanoma patients are ongoing, although the predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in this setting remains unclear. We assessed MGMT promoter methylation in formalin-fixed, primary tumor tissue of metastatic melanoma patients treated with first-line temozolomide and bevacizumab from the trial SAKK 50/07 by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction. In addition, the MGMT expression levels were also analyzed by MGMT immunohistochemistry. Eleven of 42 primary melanomas (26%) revealed a methylated MGMT promoter. Promoter methylation was significantly associated with response rates CR + PR versus SD + PD according to RECIST (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors) (p<0.05) with a trend to prolonged median progression-free survival (8.1 versus 3.4 months, p>0.05). Immunohistochemically different protein expression patterns with heterogeneous and homogeneous nuclear MGMT expression were identified. Negative MGMT expression levels were associated with overall disease stabilization CR+PR+SD versus PD (p=0.05). There was only a poor correlation between MGMT methylation and lack of MGMT expression. A significant proportion of melanomas have a methylated MGMT promoter. The MGMT promoter methylation status may be a promising predictive marker for temozolomide therapy in metastatic melanoma patients. Larger sample sizes may help to validate significant differences in survival type endpoints.