Commodity futures prices: more evidence on forecast power, risk premia and the theory of storage

In this paper, we examine the temporal stability of the evidence for two commodity futures pricing theories. We investigate whether the forecast power of commodity futures can be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality and we also consider whether there are time varying parameters or structural breaks in these pricing relationships. Compared to previous studies, we find stronger evidence of seasonality in the basis, which supports the theory of storage. The power of the basis to forecast subsequent price changes is also strengthened, while results on the presence of a risk premium are inconclusive. In addition, we show that the forecasting power of commodity futures cannot be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality. We find that in most cases where structural breaks occur, only changes in the intercepts and not the slopes are detected, illustrating that the forecast power of the basis is stable over different economic environments.

Choosing the most suitable analogue redesign method for forward-type digital power converters

This work proposes a method to objectively determine the most suitable analogue redesign method for forward type converters under digital voltage mode control. Particular emphasis is placed on determining the method which allows the highest phase margin at the particular switching and crossover frequencies chosen by the designer. It is shown that at high crossover frequencies with respect to switching frequency, controllers designed using backward integration have the largest phase margin; whereas at low crossover frequencies with respect to switching frequency, controllers designed using bilinear integration have the largest phase margins. An accurate model of the power stage is used for simulation, and experimental results from a Buck converter are collected. The performance of the digital controllers is compared to that of the equivalent analogue controller both in simulation and experiment. Excellent correlation between the simulation and experimental results is presented. This work will allow designers to confidently choose the analogue redesign method which yields the greater phase margin for their application.

Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 h are generally made by using statistical methods to post-process forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that complicate this approach are the non-linear relationship between wind speed and power production and the limited range of power production between zero and nominal power of the turbine. In practice, these problems are often tackled by using non-linear non-parametric regression models. However, such an approach ignores valuable and readily available information: the power curve of the turbine's manufacturer. Much of the non-linearity can be directly accounted for by transforming the observed power production into wind speed via the inverse power curve so that simpler linear regression models can be used. Furthermore, the fact that the transformed power production has a limited range can be taken care of by employing censored regression models. In this study, we evaluate quantile forecasts from a range of methods: (i) using parametric and non-parametric models, (ii) with and without the proposed inverse power curve transformation and (iii) with and without censoring. The results show that with our inverse (power-to-wind) transformation, simpler linear regression models with censoring perform equally or better than non-linear models with or without the frequently used wind-to-power transformation.

The rhetorics of violence in Joshua: Foucauldian Power, Israelite Identity, and the Ethics of Interpretation

The goals of this project are manifold. First, I will attempt to discover evidence in the book of Joshua that will lend support to the theory of a Josianic influence enacted in the 7th century BCE. I will do this through an analysis of the rhetoric in selected stories in Joshua using the ideas of Foucault. Second, I will address the significance of this kind of analysis as having potential for the emancipation of oppressed peoples. The first section delineates scholarly discussion on the literary and historical context of the book of Joshua. These scholarly works are foundational to this study because they situate the text within a particular period in history and within certain ideologies. Chapter 2 discusses the work of Foucault and how his ideas will be applied to particular texts of the book of Joshua. The focused analysis of these texts occurs within chapters 3 to 6. Chapter 7 presents an integration of the observations made through the analyses performed in the previous chapters and expands on the ethical significance of this study.

Monopoly power, trade protection and growth: cross industry evidence

This paper investigates the impact of monopoly power on trade policy. Annual panel-databases of Brazilian industries for the years 1988 through 1994 were used. The regressions reported here are robust to openness indicator, concentration index, control variables and sample size, and suggest that industries with higher monopoly power are more protected than competitive sectors. In the period of study the country experienced a major trade liberalization, but the results in the paper show that the reduction in protection was smaller in sectors with higher monopoly power. We thus have evidence favoring recent growth literature which stresses that interest groups with control over creasing productivity. The results here confirm the first part of this argument and show that organized groups in fact are able to obtain policy advantages that reduce competition.

The promised LAN: the transformative power of information and communications technology in developing countries

Este tese analise as implicações dos investimentos em tecnologia de informação e comunicação (ICT) em países ainda em desenvolvimento, especialmente em termos de educação, para estimular a implementação de uma infra-estrutura mais moderna em vez da continuação do uso de métodos tradicionais. Hoje, como o interesse e os investimentos em ICT estão crescendo rapidamente, os módulos e as idéias que existem para medir o estado de ICT são velhos e inexatos, e não podem ser aplicados às culturas de países em desenvolvimento. Políticos e investidores têm que considerar estes problemas quando estão pensando em investimentos ou socorros para programas em ICT no futuro, e investigadores e professores precisam entender os fatores importantes no desenvolvimento para os ICTs e a educação antes de começar estudos nestes países. Este tese conclue que investimentos em tecnologias móbeis e sem fios ajudarem organizações e governos ultrapassar a infra-estrutura tradicional, estreitando a divisão digital e dando o resulto de educação melhor, alfabetização maior, e soluções sustentáveis pelo desenvolvimento nas comunidades pobres no mundo de países em desenvolvimento.

Pole placement by coordinated tuning of Power System Stabilizers and FACTS-POD stabilizers

This work presents the application of the Decentralized Modal Control method for pole placement in multimachine power systems utilizing FACTS (Flexible AC Transmission Systems), STATCOM (Static Synchronous Compensator) and UPFC (Unified Power Flow Controller) devices. For this, these devices are equipped with supplementary damping controllers, denominated POD ( Power Oscillation Damping), achieving a coordinated project with local controllers (Power System Stabilizers - PSS). Comparative analysis on the function of damping of the FACTS, STATCOM and UPFC is performed using the New England System that has 10 generators, 39 buses and 46 transmission lines. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A high efficiency HPF-ZCS-PWM Sepic for electronic ballast with multiple tubular fluorescent lamps

This paper presents a high efficiency Sepic rectifier for an electronic ballast application with multiple fluorescent lamps. The proposed Sepic rectifier is based on a Zero-Current-Switching (ZCS) Pulse-Width-Modulated (PWM) soft-commutation cell. The high power-factor of this structure is obtained using the instantaneous average-current control technique, in order to attend properly IEC61000-3-2 standards. The inverting stage of this new electronic ballast is a classical Zero-Voltage-Switching (ZVS) Half-Bridge inverter. A proper design methodology is developed for this new electronic ballast, and a design example is presented for an application with five fluorescent lamps 40W-T12 (200W output power), 220Vrms input voltage, 130Vdc dc link voltage, with rectifier and inverter stages operating at 50kHz. Experimental results are also presented. The THD at input current is equal to 6.41%, for an input voltage THD equal to 2.14%, and the measured overall efficiency is about 92.8%, at rated load.

Mathematical optimisation techniques applied to power system operation and planning

Nowadays, power system operation becomes more complex because of the critical operating conditions resulting from the requirements of a market-driven operation. In this context, efficient methods for optimisation of power system operation and planning become critical to satisfy the operational (technical), financial and economic demands. Therefore, the detailed analysis of modern optimisation techniques as well as their application to the power system problems represent a relevant issue from the scientific and technological points of view. This paper presents a brief overview of the developments on modern mathematical optimisation methods applied to power system operation and planning. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Development of a DC-DC converter for DC bus voltage control of series connected device

The purpose of this work is to study voltage control and energy balance of a split DC bus topology within a power electronics equipment connected to the AC mains, such as UPS systems, wind power generators, active filters and FACTS devices. A typical configuration in such equipment has two mains connected converters sharing a common DC bus, one series connected and the other parallel connected. The DC bus is usually composed by a battery or a capacitor bank. In the proposed topology, the DC bus is divided in two sides, interconnected with a buck-boost converter, which controls power flow and DC voltage on both sides. © 2009 IEEE.

A new family of zero-current-switching PWM converters and a novel HPF-ZCS-PWM boost rectifier

A new family of direct current (DC) to DC converters based on a zero current switching pulse width modulated (ZCS-PWM) soft commutation cell is presented. This ZCS-PWM cell is consists of two transistors, two diodes, two inductors and one capacitor; and provides zero voltage turn-on to the diodes, a zero-current turn-on and a zero-current zero-voltage turn-off to the transistors. In addition, a new commutation cell in a new ZCS-PWM boost rectifier is developed, obtaining a structure with power factor near the unity, high efficiency at wide load range and low total harmonic distortion in the input current.

Power laws, Discontinuities and Regional City Size Distributions

Urban systems are manifestations of human adaptation to the natural environment. City size distributions are the expression of hierarchical processes acting upon urban systems. In this paper, we test the entire city size distributions for the southeastern and southwestern United States (1990), as well as the size classes in these regions for power law behavior. We interpret the differences in the size of the regional city size distributions as the manifestation of variable growth dynamics dependent upon city size. Size classics in the city size distributions are snapshots of stable states within urban systems in flux.