Transaction Banking: Respecting its role in the real economy. ECRI Policy Brief No. 6, 6 December 2013

This paper sketches the main features and issues related to recent market developments in global transaction banking (GTB), particularly in trade finance, cash management and correspondent banking. It describes the basic functioning of the GTB, its interaction with global financial markets and related implications of global regulatory developments such as Basel III. The interest in GTB has recently increased, since its low-risk profile, tendency to follow growth rates worldwide and relative independence from other financial instruments became an interesting diversification opportunity both for banks’ business models and for investors. Transaction banking has been a resilient business during the crisis, despite the reduction in world trade figures. In the post crisis period, GTB must cope with new challenges related to increased local and global regulation and the risk of inconsistency in regulatory approaches, which could negatively impact the global network and increased competition by new market entrants. Increased sophistication of corporate clients, as well as the pressure to develop and adopt technological innovations more quickly than other areas of banking continues to impact the business. The future of the industry closely depends on its ability to adjust to complex regulatory developments while at the same time being able to operate a global and efficient network.

The EU’s comprehensive approach towards security: the Lisbon Treaty and “smart power”. EU Centre Singpore Policy Brief No. 6, May 2013

The European Union (EU) has increasingly become a comprehensive security actor. With the development of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), including the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) as a reaction to the failure of the EU to act during the wars in Yugoslavia/Western Balkans in the 1990s, the EU has a wide range of instruments for crisis prevention, crisis management as well as post-crisis intervention at its disposal. Observers typically agree that “hard power” is no longer sufficient to address the complex security challenges of today’s world while the EU, often criticised for only utilising “soft power”, is now able to exercise “smart power”. Through a comprehensive approach, facilitated by the Lisbon Treaty, the EU can now use the various instruments at its disposal, such as diplomacy, development aid, humanitarian assistance, trade, sanctions, international cooperation and crisis management capabilities in a joined-up manner. This mix of tools and instruments is helping the EU to achieve the aim set out in its European Security Strategy: “a secure Europe in a better world”.

Asset-backed securities: The key to unlocking Europe's credit markets? Bruegel Policy Contribution 2014/07, 24 July 2014

The European market for asset-backed securities (ABS) has all but closed for business since the start of the economic and financial crisis. ABS (see Box 1) were in fact the first financial assets hit at the onset of the crisis in 2008. The subprime mortgage meltdown caused a deterioration in the quality of collateral in the ABS market in the United States, which in turn dried up overall liquidity because ABS AAA notes were popular collateral for inter-bank lending. The lack of demand for these products, together with the Great Recession in 2009, had a considerable negative impact on the European ABS market. The post-crisis regulatory environment has further undermined the market. The practice of slicing and dicing of loans into ABS packages was blamed for starting and spreading the crisis through the global financial system. Regulation in the post-crisis context has thus been relatively unfavourable to these types of instruments, with heightened capital requirements now necessary for the issuance of new ABS products. And yet policymakers have recently underlined the need to revitalise the ABS market as a tool to improve credit market conditions in the euro area and to enhance transmission of monetary policy. In particular, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have jointly emphasised that: “a market for prudently designed ABS has the potential to improve the efficiency of resource allocation in the economy and to allow for better risk sharing... by transforming relatively illiquid assets into more liquid securities. These can then be sold to investors thereby allowing originators to obtain funding and, potentially, transfer part of the underlying risk, while investors in such securities can diversify their portfolios... . This can lead to lower costs of capital, higher economic growth and a broader distribution of risk” (ECB and Bank of England, 2014a). In addition, consideration has started to be given to the extent to which ABS products could become the target of explicit monetary policy operations, a line of action proposed by Claeys et al (2014). The ECB has officially announced the start of preparatory work related to possible outright purchases of selected ABS1. In this paper we discuss how a revamped market for corporate loans securitised via ABS products, and how use of ABS as a monetary policy instrument, can indeed play a role in revitalising Europe’s credit market. However, before using this instrument a number of issues should be addressed: First, the European ABS market has significantly contracted since the crisis. Hence it needs to be revamped through appropriate regulation if securitisation is to play a role in improving the efficiency of resource allocation in the economy. Second, even assuming that this market can expand again, the European ABS market is heterogeneous: lending criteria are different in different countries and banking institutions and the rating methodologies to assess the quality of the borrowers have to take these differences into account. One further element of differentiation is default law, which is specific to national jurisdictions in the euro area. Therefore, the pool of loans will not only be different in terms of the macro risks related to each country of origination (which is a ‘positive’ idiosyncratic risk, because it enables a portfolio manager to differentiate), but also in terms of the normative side, in case of default. The latter introduces uncertainties and inefficiencies in the ABS market that could create arbitrage opportunities. It is also unclear to what extent a direct purchase of these securities by the ECB might have an impact on the credit market. This will depend on, for example, the type of securities targeted in terms of the underlying assets that would be considered as eligible for inclusion (such as loans to small and medium-sized companies, car loans, leases, residential and commercial mortgages). The timing of a possible move by the ECB is also an issue; immediate action would take place in the context of relatively limited market volumes, while if the ECB waits, it might have access to a larger market, provided steps are taken in the next few months to revamp the market. We start by discussing the first of these issues – the size of the EU ABS market. We estimate how much this market could be worth if some specific measures are implemented. We then discuss the different options available to the ECB should they decide to intervene in the EU ABS market. We include a preliminary list of regulatory steps that could be taken to homogenise asset-backed securities in the euro area. We conclude with our recommended course of action.

Development of Multisector Alliances (MSAs): Organization and Leadership. ACES Working Papers, 2012

The research team reviewed numerous several multi- sectoral entities and identified nine GGNs that became the subject of our case studies. The research team conducted semi-structured interviews with executives and staff from each of these GNNs and prepared a profile, including a description of the unique evolution of the organization, goals and objectives, organizational structure and governance arrangements for each GGN. The following list provides an overview of the nine GGNs profiled: 1. Every Woman Every Child is an unprecedented global effort that mobilizes and amplifies action by governments, multilaterals, the private sector, research centers, academia and civil society to address life-threatening health challenges facing women and children globally. 2. HERproject catalyzes global partnerships and local Networks to improve female workers’ general and reproductive health in eight emerging economies. 3. R4 Rural Resilience Initiative is a cutting-edge, strategic, large-scale partnership between the public and private sectors to innovate and develop better tools to help the world’s most vulnerable people build resilient livelihoods. 4. Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative is a coalition of governments, companies, civil society groups, investors and international organizations that aims to improve transparency and accountability in the extractives sector. 5. Global Network for Neglected Tropical Diseases works with international partners at the highest level of government, business and society to break down the logistical and financial barriers to delivering existing treatments for the seven most common neglected tropical diseases. 6. Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition is an alliance that supports public-private partnerships to increase access to the missing nutrients in diets necessary for people, communities and economies to be stronger and healthier. 7. Inter-Agency Network For Education in Emergencies is a global Network of individuals and representatives from NGOs, United Nations and donor agencies, governments, academic institutions, schools and affected populations working to ensure all persons have the right to a quality and safe education in emergencies and post- crisis recovery. 8. mHealth Alliance works with diverse partners to advance mobile-based or mobile-enhanced solutions that deliver health through research, advocacy, support for the development of interoperable solutions and sustainable deployment models. 9. The Rainforest Alliance is a global non-profit that focuses on environmental conservation and sustainable development and works through collaborative partnerships with various stakeholders.

An Exercise in Legal Honesty: Re-writing the Court of Justice and the Bundesverfassungsgericht. IHS Political Science Series No. 136, February 2014

At a time of crisis – a true state of emergency – both the Court of Justice of the European Union and the German Federal Constitutional Court have failed the rule of law in Europe. Worse still, in their evaluation of the ersatz crisis law, which has been developed in response to financial and sovereign debt crises, both courts have undermined constitutionality throughout Europe. Each jurisdiction has been implicated within the techocratisation of democratic process. Each Court has contributed to an incremental process of the undermining of the political subjectivity of European Citizens. The results are depressing for lawyers who are still attached to notions of constitutionality. Yet, we must also ask whether the Courts could have acted otherwise. Given the original flaws in the construction of Economic and Monetary Union, as well as the politically pre-emptive constraints imposed by global financial markets, each Court might thus be argued to have been forced to suspend immediate legality in a longer term effort to secure the character of the legal jurisdiction as a whole. Crisis can and does defeat the law. Nevertheless, what continues to disturb is the failure of law in Europe to open up any perspective for a return to normal constitutionality post crisis, as well as its apparent inability to give proper and honest consideration to the hardship now being experienced by millions of Europeans within crisis. This contribution accordingly seeks to reimagine each Judgment in a language of legal honesty. Above all, this contribution seeks to suggest a new form of post-national constitutional language; a language which takes as its primary function, proper protection of democratic process against the ever encroaching powers of a post-national executive power. This contribution forms a part of an on-going effort to identify a new basis for the legitimacy of European Law, conducted jointly and severally with Christian Joerges, University of Bremen and Hertie School of Government, Berlin. Differences do remain in our theoretical positions; hence this individual essay. Nevertheless, the congruence between pluralist and conflict of law approaches to the topic are also readily apparent. See, for example, Everson & Joerges (2013).

The grand divergence: global and European current account surpluses. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/08, 13 August 2015

Global current account imbalances widened before the 2007/2008 crisis and have narrowed since. While the post-crisis adjustment of European current account deficits was in line with global developments (though more forceful), European current account surpluses defied global trends and increased. We use panel econometric models to analyse the determinants of medium-term current account balances. Our results confirm that higher fiscal balances, higher GDP per capita, more rapidly aging populations, larger net foreign assets, larger oil rents and better legal systems increase the medium-term current account balance, while a larger growth differential and a higher old-age dependency ratio reduce it. European current account surpluses became excessive during the past twelve years according to our estimates, while they were in line with model predictions in the preceding three decades. Generally, the gap between the actual current account and its fitted value in the model has a strong predictive power for future current account changes. Excess deficits adjust more forcefully than excess surpluses. However, in the 2004-07 period, excess imbalances were amplified, which was followed by a forceful correction in 2008-15, with the exception of European surpluses.

Desempenho de longo prazo de IPOs no Brasil: um estudo para o período de 2004 a 2015

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o desempenho de longo prazo das empresas que abrem o capital no Brasil. Os fenômenos de (1) valorização no primeiro dia de negócios pós-IPO (underpricing) seguido de (2) desempenho inferior ao mercado no longo prazo (long-run underperformance) foram amplamente documentados em trabalhos de outros autores. O foco do estudo está em verificar a persistência dessa baixa performance quando alongamos o período de avaliação para 5 anos. Adicionalmente, o estudo pretende entender que fatores são determinantes no desempenho destas ações no longo prazo. O trabalho analisa 128 IPOs ocorridos no período de 2004 a 2012 na Bovespa. Os resultados apontam para evidências estatisticamente significantes de underpricing. Este underpricing foi mais acentuado entre os anos de 2004 a 2008, período precursor da crise financeira do subprime. Quando se analisa a performance de longo prazo os resultados apontam que a carteira de IPOs apresentou performance abaixo do mercado até o 29° mês. Os IPOs lançados no período pré-crise do subprime tiveram performance abaixo do mercado após 3 anos, enquanto que os IPOs lançados no pós-crise tiveram retorno acima do mercado para 3 e 5 anos. Não foi identificada a persistência da baixa performance dos IPOs além do 29° mês. Três variáveis principais mostraram significância na explicação dos retornos de longo prazo: (1) o período de lançamento das ações, (2) o percentual de alocação de investidores estrangeiros, (3) e a reputação do coordenador da oferta. Os IPOs lançados no período pós-crise do subprime observaram melhor performance no longo prazo. Também apresentaram melhor performance os IPOs com maior presença de investidor estrangeiro. Adicionalmente, existe uma relação inversa entre a reputação do coordenador líder da oferta e a performance de longo prazo.

A legitimate paradox: Neo-liberal reform and the return of the state in Korea

This article examines the neo-liberal reforms that the Kim government implemented in post-crisis Korea. It argues that by embracing the reforms, the state, paradoxicaliy, re-legitimised itself in the national political economy. The process of enacting the reforms completed the power shift from a collusive state-chaebol alliance towards a new alliance based on a more populist social contract - but one that nonetheless generally conformed to the tenets of neo-liberalism. Kim and his closest associates identified the malpractices of the chaebols as the main cause of the crisis, so reforming the chaebols would be the key to economic recovery. Combining populism and neo-liberalism, they drew on support from both domestic and international sources to rein in, rather than nurture, the chaebols.

Evolution of capital structure in East Asia - corporate inertia of endeavours?

The paper examines the capital structure adjustment dynamics of listed non-financial corporations in seven east Asian countries before, during and after the crisis of 1997–1998. Our methodology allows for speeds of adjustment to vary, not only among firms, but also over time, distinguishing between cases of sudden and smooth adjustment.Whereas, compared with firms in the least affected countries, average leverages were much higher, generalized method-ofmoments analysis of the Worldscope panel data suggests that average speeds of adjustment were lower in the worst affected countries. This holds also for the severely financially distressed firms in some worst affected countries, though the trend reversed in the post-crisis period. These findings have important implications for the regulatory environment as well as access to market finance.

A community-based approach to supply chain design

The role of beneficiaries in the humanitarian supply chain is highlighted in the imperative to meet their needs but disputed in terms of their actual decision-making and purchasing power. This paper discusses the use of a beneficiary-focused, community-based approach in the case of a post-crisis housing reconstruction programme. In the community-based approach, beneficiaries become active members of the humanitarian supply chain. Implications of this community-based approach are discussed in the light of supply chain design and aid effectiveness. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Heterodox gazdaságpolitikák korszaka? (An Age of Heterodox Economic Policies?)

A világ fejlett pénzügyi piacainak válságát követően önvizsgálatra kényszerült a közgazdaságtudomány, amelyet nemcsak az alternatív és heterodox irányzatok képviselői, a média és a nagyközönség, hanem a gazdasági döntéshozók részéről is erős kritikák értek. Egyidejűleg gyors változásokon ment át a gazdaságpolitikai gyakorlat, különösen a válság által erősen érintett országokban, megszaporodtak a korábbi mérvadó kormányzati gyakorlat (best practice) ajánlásaitól távol álló, nem szokványos megoldások, heterodox politikák. Az esszé szerzője meghatározó személyiségek véleményének, vezető intézmények álláspontjának és kormányzati gazdaságpolitikáknak az áttekintése alapján egyfelől azt a kérdést vizsgálja, hogy körvonalazódik-e új gazdaságelméleti irányzat, amely doktrinális alapul szolgálhatna a gazdaságpolitikai döntéshozatalhoz, másodsorban pedig: átmeneti jelenség-e az egymástól alapvetően különböző felfogású, logikájú gazdaságpolitikák egyidejű megléte, avagy várható-e egy új konszenzus kialakulása. ______ In the wake of the recent financial turmoil emanating from top financial centers, the economic profession has been forced to conduct introspection due to harsh criticism from alternative and heterodox economists, the media, and the general public as well as from decision makers. Meanwhile, the economic policy making practice has profoundly changed, particularly in countries heavily affected in the crisis; decision makers increasingly apply non customary (heterodox) measures in defiance of former best practice of economic policy making. The author of this essay, having investigated the related views of leading economists and influential international institutions and having reviewed economic policy making practice, raises two questions. One: is there a new economic theory evolving that will provide doctrinal underpinning to post crisis economic policy making? Second: is the simultaneity of widely differing economic policy practices and policy orientations a transitional phenomenon, or are there signs of a new policy consensus emerging? It may be too early to give argued answers to the questions, but the present – rather technical – economic theory mainstream seems to maintain its central position, yet is becomes more open to research topics and methods acknowledging the complexity of economic processes and social institutions, and to impulses emanating from economic practice. As for economic policy making is concerned, continuous decline of the economic importance of leading Western nations prolongs the period of heterogeneity of non conventional, heterodox policies both in advanced and in emerging countries until new policy norms, a “new normal” emerges.

Do institutions matter in business strategy? – The changing focus of strategic management to institutions: a literature review

The post-crisis managerial literature emphasizes the roles of institutional factors in any disruption of the ecosystem of market capitalism and puts it in the middle of its analytical framework. It has become clear that nowadays, scientific discussions about the measure of increase of direct state involvement in certain economic areas has become more relevant. The socio-economic model based on market coordination was no doubt shaken by the crisis in 2008 across the world and inspired various representatives of the scientific and political community to revise their theses on coordination mechanisms that support the way out of an economic downturn. This paper intends to give a brief summary of the two leading strategic management approaches (Porter’s five forces and the resource-based view of the firm) on institutions. The author’s aim is to demonstrate that incorporation of the institution-based view into the mainstream theories can enrich the analytical framework of strategic management by providing deeper understanding of the contextual factors that underpin interactions between institutions and organizations.

Aplicação do exame da proporcionalidade diante da implantação de empreendimentos eólicos em áreas de preservação permanente

The setting up of wind power enterprises at Permanent Preservation Areas reflects the obvious conflict and necessary convergence between free market and energy security on the one hand, and the promotion of environmental quality on the other. From the perspective of energy sustainability, and in order to achieve development (in its complex meaning, which converges economic, social, environmental and cultural aspects), the harmonization between free market and an ecologically sustainable environment is required. This work aims to identify the link between the protection system of the Permanent Preservation Areas and the current constitutional order, by analyzing the implementation of wind power enterprises in these protected zones focusing on the proportionality aspects. A legal and purposeful research was developed, from a theoretical method, followed by collecting and analyzing both primary and secondary data. From these data, the law, the legal literature and judicial decisions were cross-examined, under the light of the Constitution and guided by the theory of proportionality and related development imperatives. In this context, the present study identified the link between the principles of the economic order, environment and energy law, finding their basis under the Federal Constitution and development. By reproducing this interrelationship and by means of post-crisis institutional reforms, the guiding objectives of the Brazilian electric sector began to corroborate the precepts of development, although issues regarding its sustainability still persist. The appraisal of proportionality indicates that the Permanent Preservation Areas protection system is insufficient to materialize the right to a healthy quality of life upon the implementation of wind projects at Permanent Preservation Areas, albeit seeking the harmonization between free market and environmental protection.

Aplicação do exame da proporcionalidade diante da implantação de empreendimentos eólicos em áreas de preservação permanente

The setting up of wind power enterprises at Permanent Preservation Areas reflects the obvious conflict and necessary convergence between free market and energy security on the one hand, and the promotion of environmental quality on the other. From the perspective of energy sustainability, and in order to achieve development (in its complex meaning, which converges economic, social, environmental and cultural aspects), the harmonization between free market and an ecologically sustainable environment is required. This work aims to identify the link between the protection system of the Permanent Preservation Areas and the current constitutional order, by analyzing the implementation of wind power enterprises in these protected zones focusing on the proportionality aspects. A legal and purposeful research was developed, from a theoretical method, followed by collecting and analyzing both primary and secondary data. From these data, the law, the legal literature and judicial decisions were cross-examined, under the light of the Constitution and guided by the theory of proportionality and related development imperatives. In this context, the present study identified the link between the principles of the economic order, environment and energy law, finding their basis under the Federal Constitution and development. By reproducing this interrelationship and by means of post-crisis institutional reforms, the guiding objectives of the Brazilian electric sector began to corroborate the precepts of development, although issues regarding its sustainability still persist. The appraisal of proportionality indicates that the Permanent Preservation Areas protection system is insufficient to materialize the right to a healthy quality of life upon the implementation of wind projects at Permanent Preservation Areas, albeit seeking the harmonization between free market and environmental protection.