O Supervisor como mediador no processo do desenvolvimento pessoal e profissional do professor : do ideal ao real na escola do séc. XXI em Portugal

O presente estudo de investigação visa percepcionar o papel e o trabalho de um supervisor pedagógico na escola portuguesa que possibilite compreender os equívocos e deturpação ligados ao papel do supervisor, quer por quem exerce a função quer por aqueles que são supervisionados. A revisão da literatura foi orientada no sentido de definir a acção e competências do supervisor e os efeitos no desenvolvimento pessoal e profissional do professor avaliado num contexto de uma escola aprendente ou reflexiva, segundo algumas abordagens mais modernas, que gera um trabalho colaborativo entre pares e leva a melhoria do processo ensino-aprendizagem. Analisaram-se desta forma quais os aspectos mais relevantes para nomeação do supervisor, competências e trabalho a desenvolver por este e efeitos no desenvolvimento pessoal e profissional do professor supervisionado e ainda as dificuldades sentidas na concretização da supervisão pedagógica. A investigação decorreu numa Escola do concelho de Matosinhos, recorreu-se a procedimentos metodológicos quantitativos através de inquéritos por questionário aplicados aos professores Relatores/Supervisores e aos professores Avaliados/Supervisionados. Desta investigação ressalta um desfasamento entre os subgrupos inquiridos, sobretudo em relação aos aspectos a ter em conta para sua nomeação, perfil e competências inerentes à função, e no trabalho a desenvolver e desenvolvido pelo Relator/Supervisor.

Private investment in the countryside: an assessment of the role of new houses and estates in sustaining the rural economy and environment

The British countryside has been shaped and sustained over the years by the establishment of landed estates. Some of our best known, and now most protected, landmarks derive from this tradition by which money, that was often sourced from outside the rural economy, was invested in land. Whilst there was some reversal in this trend during the last century, there is again a widespread desire among people of means to invest in new country property. Paragraph 3.21 of Planning Policy Guidance Note 7: The Countryside - Environmental Quality and Economic and Social Development was introduced in 1997 as a means of perpetuating the historic tradition of innovation in the countryside through the construction of fine individual houses in landscaped grounds. That it was considered necessary to use a special provision of this kind reflects the prevailing presumption of planning authorities against allowing private residential development in open countryside. The Government is currently reviewing rural planning policy and is focusing on higher density housing, affordable homes and the use of brownfield sites. There is an underlying conception that individual private house developments contribute nothing and are seen as the least attractive option for most development sites. The purpose of paragraph 3.21 lies outside the government’s priorities and its particular provisions may therefore be excluded in forthcoming ‘policy statements’. This paper seeks to examine the role of private investors wishing to build new houses in the countryside, and the impact that that might have on local economies. It explores the interpretation placed on PPG7 through an investigation of appeal sites, and concludes by making recommendations for the review process, including the retention of some form of exceptions policy for new build houses.

The transition of the Polish real estate market within a Central and Eastern European context

The real estate market in Poland is a relatively immature market, but one that has been experiencing substantial transformation. The development of the market has been encouraged by a number of factors, including changes arising as a result of new legislation and the migration of capital between capital markets. The progress of the real estate sector towards a western style competitive market has taken place within the gradual transformation of the Polish economy into a free market economy. As investment grade property is in relatively short supply in Poland, investors consider opportunities within the wider CEE block. An analysis of the risk-return characteristics of the three largest CEE real estate markets namely, Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic, shows that the returns in these markets have been negatively correlated with the UK. As these economies and markets evolve, and being part of the wider EU trading block, their economic performance will slowly converge and become more synchronized with their western counterparts. However, the catch-up of the CEE markets to western European performance cycles will be protracted and consequently there are likely to be significant ongoing portfolio risk reduction opportunities

Forecasting UK real estate cycle phases with leading indicators: a probit approach

This paper examines the significance of widely used leading indicators of the UK economy for predicting the cyclical pattern of commercial real estate performance. The analysis uses monthly capital value data for UK industrials, offices and retail from the Investment Property Databank (IPD). Prospective economic indicators are drawn from three sources namely, the series used by the US Conference Board to construct their UK leading indicator and the series deployed by two private organisations, Lombard Street Research and NTC Research, to predict UK economic activity. We first identify turning points in the capital value series adopting techniques employed in the classical business cycle literature. We then estimate probit models using the leading economic indicators as independent variables and forecast the probability of different phases of capital values, that is, periods of declining and rising capital values. The forecast performance of the models is tested and found to be satisfactory. The predictability of lasting directional changes in property performance represents a useful tool for real estate investment decision-making.

Risk management and the corporate real estate portfolio

In a global business economy, firms have a broad range of corporate real estate needs. During the past decade, multiple strategies and tactics have emerged in the corporate real estate community for meeting those needs. We propose here a framework for analysing and prioritising the various types of risk inherent in corporate real estate decisions. From a business strategy perspective, corporate real estate must serve needs beyond the simple one of shelter for the workforce and production process. Certain uses are strategic in that they allow access to externalities, embody the business strategy, or provide entrée to new markets. Other uses may be tactical, in that they arise from business activities of relatively short duration or provide an opportunity to pre-empt competitors. Still other corporate real estate uses can be considered “core” to the existence of the business enterprise. These might be special use properties or may be generic buildings that have become embodiments of the organisation’s culture. We argue that a multi-dimensional matrix approach organised around three broad themes and nine sub-categories allow the decision-maker to organise and evaluate choices with an acceptable degree of rigor and thoroughness. The three broad themes are Use (divided into Core, Cyclical or Casual) – Asset Type (which can be Strategic, Specialty or Generic) and Market Environment (which ranges from Mature Domestic to Emerging Economy). Proper understanding of each of these groupings brings critical variables to the fore and allows for efficient resource allocation and enhanced risk management.

Analyzing the performance of non-listed real estate funds: an panel data analysis

The rapid growth of non-listed real estate funds over the last several years has contributed towards establishing this sector as a major investment vehicle for gaining exposure to commercial real estate. Academic research has not kept up with this development, however, as there are still only a few published studies on non-listed real estate funds. This paper aims to identify the factors driving the total return over a seven-year period. Influential factors tested in our analysis include the weighted underlying direct property returns in each country and sector as well as fund size, investment style gearing and the distribution yield. Furthermore, we analyze the interaction of non-listed real estate funds with the performance of the overall economy and that of competing asset classes and found that lagged GDP growth and stock market returns as well as contemporaneous government bond rates are significant and positive predictors of annual fund performance.

Long run relationships between City office rents and the economy in the UK: creating a database for research

This paper sets out progress during the first eighteen months of doctoral research into the City of London office market. The overall aim of the research is to explore relationships between office rents and the economy in the UK over the last 150 years. To do this, a database of lettings has been created from which a long run index of City office rents can be constructed. With this index, it should then be possible to analyse trends in rents and relationships with their long run determinants. The focus of this paper is on the creation of the rent database. First, it considers the existing secondary sources of long run rental data for the UK. This highlights a lack of information for years prior to 1970 and the need for primary data collection if earlier periods are to be studied. The paper then discusses the selection of the City of London and of the time period chosen for research. After this, it describes how a dataset covering the period 1860-1960 has been assembled using the records of property companies active in the City office market. It is hoped that, if successful, this research will contribute to existing knowledge on the long run characteristics of commercial real estate. In particular, it should add a price dimension (rents) to the existing long run information on stock/supply and investment. Hence, it should enable a more complete picture of the development and performance of commercial real estate through time to be gained.

First announcements and real economic activity

The recent literature suggests that first announcements of real output growth in the US have predictive power for the future course of the economy while the actual value of output growth does not. We show that this need not point to a behavioural relationship, whereby agents respond to perceptions instead of the truth, but may instead simply be a by-product of the data revision process. The revisions to the initial estimates which define the final values of the observations are shown to be key in determining any relationship between first announcements and the future course of the economy.

Agricultural commodity markets : reference point for the real value of a currency

Using monthly time-series data 1999-2013, the paper shows that markets for agricultural commodities provide a yardstick for real purchasing power, and thus a reference point for the real value of fiat currencies. The daily need for each adult to consume about 2800 food calories is universal; data from FAO food balance sheets confirm that the world basket of food consumed daily is non-volatile in comparison to the volatility of currency exchange rates, and so the replacement cost of food consumed provides a consistent indicator of economic value. Food commodities are storable for short periods, but ultimately perishable, and this exerts continual pressure for markets to clear in the short term; moreover, food calories can be obtained from a very large range of foodstuffs, and so most households are able to use arbitrage to select a near optimal weighting of quantities purchased. The paper proposes an original method to enable a standard of value to be established, definable in physical units on the basis of actual worldwide consumption of food goods, with an illustration of the method.

Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities in relation to macroeconomic risk

Real estate securities have a number of distinct characteristics that differentiate them from stocks generally. Key amongst them is that under-pinning the firms are both real as well as investment assets. The connections between the underlying macro-economy and listed real estate firms is therefore clearly demonstrated and of heightened importance. To consider the linkages with the underlying macro-economic fundamentals we extract the ‘low-frequency’ volatility component from aggregate volatility shocks in 11 international markets over the 1990-2014 period. This is achieved using Engle and Rangel’s (2008) Spline-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (Spline-GARCH) model. The estimated low-frequency volatility is then examined together with low-frequency macro data in a fixed-effect pooled regression framework. The analysis reveals that the low-frequency volatility of real estate securities has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies examined. These include interest rates, inflation, GDP and foreign exchange rates.

Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Determinantes do crescimento das gestoras independentes de recursos no Brasil, pós plano real

A dissertação objetivou identificar os principais determinantes que exercem influência no número de gestoras independentes de recursos de terceiros (Assets) em funcionamento no Brasil, um segmento que apresentou franco crescimento na última década. O método de análise empregado foi quantitativo, utilizando o modelo de regressão linear múltipla, e teve, como base de dados analisados, dados históricos de 15 variáveis macroeconômicas da economia brasileira. O período analisado contempla 14 anos (de 1994 a 2008). Dado o enfoque deste trabalho, considerou-se necessária uma revisão das principais mudanças ocorridas na economia e no setor financeiro do país, bem como seus reflexos nas taxas de juros, níveis de poupança, endividamento interno e externo e no setor bancário. Através da análise realizada foi possível perceber, através do emprego da análise de correlação, que as variáveis macroeconômicas são altamente relacionadas entre si, bem como identificar que as principais variáveis que têm impacto no mercado de Assets em funcionamento são: bancos em funcionamento no país; volume de recursos depositados em poupança e expectativa de inflação.

The political economy of exchange rate policy in Brazil: 1964-1999

This paper was developed as part of a broader research program on the political economy of exchange rate policies in Latin America and the Caribbean. We are grateful for helpful comments and suggestions from Jeff Frieden, Ernesto Stein, Jorge Streb, Marcelo Neri and seminar participants at Getulio Vargas Foundation, PUC-Rio, IDB workshop on The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean, and LACEA meeting in Buenos Aires. We thank René Garcia for providing us with a Fortran program for estimating the Markov Switching Model, Ilan Goldfajn for sending us updated estimates of the real exchange rate series of Goldfajn and Valdés (1996), Altamir Lopes and Ricardo Markwald for kindly furnishing data on Brazilian external accounts, and Carla Bernardes, Gabriela Domingues, Juliana Pessoa de Araújo, and, specially, Marcelo Pinheiro for excellent research assistant. Both authors thank CNPq for a research fellowship.

Estimating Relative Risk Aversion, Risk-Neutral and Real-World Densities using Brazilian Real Currency Options

Building Risk-Neutral Densities (RND) from options data can provide market-implied expectations about the future behavior of a financial variable. And market expectations on financial variables may influence macroeconomic policy decisions. It can be useful also for corporate and financial institutions decision making. This paper uses the Liu et all (2007) approach to estimate the option-implied Risk-neutral densities from the Brazilian Real/US Dollar exchange rate distribution. We then compare the RND with actual exchange rates, on a monthly basis, in order to estimate the relative risk-aversion of investors and also obtain a Real-world density for the exchange rate. We are the first to calculate relative risk-aversion and the option-implied Real World Density for an emerging market currency. Our empirical application uses a sample of Brazilian Real/US Dollar options traded at BM&F-Bovespa from 1999 to 2011. The RND is estimated using a Mixture of Two Log-Normals distribution and then the real-world density is obtained by means of the Liu et al. (2007) parametric risktransformations. The relative risk aversion is calculated for the full sample. Our estimated value of the relative risk aversion parameter is around 2.7, which is in line with other articles that have estimated this parameter for the Brazilian Economy, such as Araújo (2005) and Issler and Piqueira (2000). Our out-of-sample evaluation results showed that the RND has some ability to forecast the Brazilian Real exchange rate. Abe et all (2007) found also mixed results in the out-of-sample analysis of the RND forecast ability for exchange rate options. However, when we incorporate the risk aversion into RND in order to obtain a Real-world density, the out-of-sample performance improves substantially, with satisfactory results in both Kolmogorov and Berkowitz tests. Therefore, we would suggest not using the “pure” RND, but rather taking into account risk aversion in order to forecast the Brazilian Real exchange rate.

Estimando a taxa de juros real neutra brasileira via modelo DSGE

Este trabalho objetiva estimar uma série trimestral para a taxa de juros real neutra brasileira via modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Dinâmico Estocástico (DSGE), para o período compreendido entre o primeiro trimestre de 2000 e o último de 2011. O modelo representa uma economia fechada, com famílias maximizando utilidade do tipo CRRA, firmas maximizando lucro em um mercado de concorrência imperfeita e um governo com política fiscal de orçamento equilibrado e regra de política monetária à la Taylor, em um contexto de rigidez de preços. Neste arcabouço, a taxa de juros real neutra foi calculada com base nos choques de produtividade e de gastos de governo, que foram considerados os mais relevantes para a economia brasileira. Adicionalmente, analisou-se o impacto dos choques de produtividade e gastos do governo sobre a taxa neutra, assim como seu comportamento ao longo do período estimado e sua sensibilidade a calibragens alternativas. Por fim, ao comparar o comportamento do hiato de taxa de juros vis-à-vis à inflação, encontramos correlações negativas de 56% e 83% para todo o período estimado e para uma amostra mais recente (do primeiro trimestre de 2006 até o último de 2011), respectivamente, indicando certa consistência na série obtida.