Distribuição de Poisson e sistema de informações geográficas: analisando secas mensais.

O objetivo deste documento é mostrar o potencial da integração de um sistema de informações geográficas (SIG) com um modelo de probabilidade, usando a distribuição de Poisson, para espacializar variáveis discretas. Modelos estatísticos são ferramentas importantes no estudo de variáveis ambientais, principalmente com a crescente importância da valoração do capital ambiental. A distribuição do Poisson é um bom modelo estatístico para manejo de variáveis discretas, pois mostra seu comportamento. Um passo posterior seria saber como essas variáveis se comportam no espaço, mostrando sua distribuição espacial. Nesse caso, os sistemas de informações geográficas (SIG) são bastante eficientes (Miranda, 2005). Para testar o uso de ambas as ferramentas e mostrar sua eficiência, este trabalho traz uma implementação específica usando uma variável ambiental discreta, secas mensais.

The Rawls-Tawney theorem and the digital divide in postindustrial society.

The digital divide continues to challenge political and academic circles worldwide. A range of policy solutions is briefly evaluated, from laissez-faire on the right to “arithmetic” egalitarianism on the left. The article recasts the digital divide as a problem for the social distribution of presumptively important information (e.g., electoral data, news, science) within postindustrial society. Endorsing in general terms the left-liberal approach of differential or “geometric” egalitarianism, it seeks to invest this with greater precision, and therefore utility, by means of a possibly original synthesis of the ideas of John Rawls and R. H. Tawney. It is argued that, once certain categories of information are accorded the status of “primary goods,” their distribution must then comply with principles of justice as articulated by those major 20th century exponents of ethical social democracy. The resultant Rawls-Tawney theorem, if valid, might augment the portfolio of options for interventionist information policy in the 21st century

Quantum Stratonovich Stochastic Calculus and the Quantum Wong-Zakai Theorem

Gough, John, 'Quantum Stratonovich Stochastic Calculus and the Quantum Wong-Zakai Theorem', Journal of Mathematical Physics. 47, 113509, (2006)

A new proposition on the martingale representation theorem and on the approximate hedging of contingent claim in mean-variance criterion

In this work we revisit the problem of the hedging of contingent claim using mean-square criterion. We prove that in incomplete market, some probability measure can be identified so that becomes -martingale under .This is in fact a new proposition on the martingale representation theorem. The new results also identify a weight function that serves to be an approximation to the Radon-Nikodým derivative of the unique neutral martingale measure.

Convergence of numerical time-averaging and stationary measures via Poisson equations

Numerical approximation of the long time behavior of a stochastic di.erential equation (SDE) is considered. Error estimates for time-averaging estimators are obtained and then used to show that the stationary behavior of the numerical method converges to that of the SDE. The error analysis is based on using an associated Poisson equation for the underlying SDE. The main advantages of this approach are its simplicity and universality. It works equally well for a range of explicit and implicit schemes, including those with simple simulation of random variables, and for hypoelliptic SDEs. To simplify the exposition, we consider only the case where the state space of the SDE is a torus, and we study only smooth test functions. However, we anticipate that the approach can be applied more widely. An analogy between our approach and Stein's method is indicated. Some practical implications of the results are discussed. Copyright © by SIAM. Unauthorized reproduction of this article is prohibited.

A Markov modulated Poisson process model for rainfall increments

The problems encountered when using traditional rectangular pulse hierarchical point processmodels for fine temporal resolution and the growing number of available tip-time records suggest that rainfall increments from tipping-bucket gauges be modelled directly. Poisson processes are used with an arrival rate modulated by a Markov chain in Continuous time. The paper shows how, by using two or three states for this chain, much of the structure of the rainfall intensity distribution and the wet/dry sequences can be represented for time-scales as small as 5 minutes.