How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

Comments This article is a U.S. government work, and is not subject to copyright in the United States. Abstract Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly 0.5 Mg ha 1 per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data : how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

Funded by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) CEH projects. Grant Numbers: NEC05264, NEC05100 Natural Environment Research Council UK. Grant Number: NE/J008001/1 © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Climate change and marine plankton

Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO2 levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries. thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate chan e impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The evolutionary history of Symbiodinium and scleractinian hosts - Symbiosis, diversity, and the effect of climate change

Marine invertebrates representing at least five phyla are symbiotic with dinoflagellates from the genus Symbiodinium. This group of single-celled protists was once considered to be a single pandemic species, Symbiodinium microadriaticum. Molecular investigations over the past 25 years have revealed, however, that Symbiodinium is a diverse group of organisms with at least eight (A-H) divergent clades that in turn contain multiple molecular subclade types. The diversity within this genus may subsequently determine the response of corals to normal and stressful conditions, leading to the proposal that the symbiosis may impart unusually rapid adaptation to environmental change by the metazoan host. These questions have added importance due to the critical challenges that corals and the reefs they build face as a consequence of current rapid climate change. This review outlines our current understanding of the diverse genus Symbiodinium and explores the ability of this genus and its symbioses to adapt to rapid environmental change. (c) 2006 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Corporate environmental and climate change disclosures:empirical evidence from Bangladesh

Purpose-In this article, we examine the nature and the extent of corporate environmental and climate change disclosures in Bangladesh. Design/methodology/ approach-For this purpose, we have undertaken a content analysis of annual reports related to the year 2008 and websites of the 100 largest companies (according to market capitalization) listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange. We have used 24 content analysis categories to capture the relevant disclosures related to climate change and other environmental issues. Findings-Key findings of our analysis suggest that the level of environmental and climate change disclosures is very low in Bangladesh. Although 91% of companies made disclosures in at least one category, most companies disclosed information only on the ''energy usage'' category, which is a mandatory requirement. Even fewer companies made disclosures in the specific areas of climate change. No disclosure was made in the significant categories such as GHG emissions. The second most popular category related to climate change was adaptation measures. Among the other environmental disclosures, a significant finding is that only 5% of (website 6%) companies disclosed that they had an effluent treatment plant. Closer examination of the nature of disclosures suggests that most of the disclosures are positive and descriptive in nature. Originality/value-As far as we are aware, this is the first study of its kind in Bangladesh which systematically examines corporate climate change disclosures as a particular focus of research. Copyright © 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Phytogeographical Units. A Case Study of the Moesz Line

Regional climate models (RCMs) provide reliable climatic predictions for the next 90 years with high horizontal and temporal resolution. In the 21st century northward latitudinal and upward altitudinal shift of the distribution of plant species and phytogeographical units is expected. It is discussed how the modeling of phytogeographical unit can be reduced to modeling plant distributions. Predicted shift of the Moesz line is studied as case study (with three different modeling approaches) using 36 parameters of REMO regional climate data-set, ArcGIS geographic information software, and periods of 1961-1990 (reference period), 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. The disadvantages of this relatively simple climate envelope modeling (CEM) approach are then discussed and several ways of model improvement are suggested. Some statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) methods (logistic regression, cluster analysis and other clustering methods, decision tree, evolutionary algorithm, artificial neural network) are able to provide development of the model. Among them artificial neural networks (ANN) seems to be the most suitable algorithm for this purpose, which provides a black box method for distribution modeling.

A forgalomban lévő fásszárú dísznövénytaxonok szárazságtűrésének értékelése a klímaváltozás tükrében (Evaluation of the impact climate change on current drought-tolerant woody plants)

Regionális klímaváltozási forgatókönyvek szerint hazánk éghajlata az elkövetkező 90 évben a mainál jóval melegebb, a nyári évszakban csapadékszegényebb, összességében pedig szárazabb lesz. Kutatásunk célja volt felmérni szárazságtűrésük szerint a legjelentősebb faiskolák katalógusában fellelhető fa- és cserjefajokat (a gyűjtésben nem szerepelnek a faj alatti taxonok). A vizsgálatainkban szereplő öt faiskola növénykínálatát a tudományos nevek ellenőrzése után összesítettük, majd ezt követően az egyes fajokat vízigény szerinti kategóriákba soroltuk. A tényleges statisztikai értékelésbe – a 451 összegyűjtött faj tudományos neveinek ellenőrzése után – 420 fajt vontunk be, melyek 20%-a vízigényes, 53%-a közepesen vízigényes és 27%-a szárazságtűrő. Várakozásainkkal ellentétben a vízigényes fajok részaránya kevésnek mondható, ugyanakkor a szárazságtűrő fajok magasabb aránya kívánatos lenne. Ezért, a gyakorlati alkalmazást elősegítve, kiemeltünk olyan nemzetségeket, melyek kereskedelmi forgalmazását meg kellene kezdeni vagy fokozni, mint pl a Cupressus, Eucommia, Halimodendron, Paliurus, Pyrus, Rhus, Yucca Zanthoxylum, Zelkova, illetve olyanokat, melyek telepítését a jövőben nem, vagy csak kellő körültekintéssel javasoljuk, mint például a Clematis, Hydrangea, Liquidambar, Magnolia, Rhododendron nemzetségek. _____ According to regional climate change scenarios, the climate in Hungary will be warmer. Less precipitation is predicted in the summer seasons so, on the whole, it will be drier over the next 90 years. Our research attempted to survey the ornamental plant species in the most important nurseries in Hungary, in terms of their drought tolerance. The intraspecifi c taxa are not included. The plant assortment of the fi ve nurseries was merged after researching their scientifi c names. We then categorized species to 3 groups of drought tolerance. Out of 451 species, 420 of them were used in the statistical research. 20% of them were water demanding, 53% were medium drought tolerant and 27% were drought tolerant. In contrast to our initial expectation, the proportion of water demanding species was not too high. Nevertheless, the proportion of drought tolerant species should have been greater. We classifi ed the genera to assist in practical application. The trade of some of these species, such as Cupressus, Eucommia, Halimodendron, Paliurus, Pyrus, Rhus, Yucca, Zanthoxylum, Zelkova should be initiated or increased in the future. Other species, especially Clematis, Hydrangea, Liquidambar, Magnolia, Rhododendron are not recommended due to either their drought intolerance or their high maintenance requirement.