A model for determining the optimal project life span and concession period of BOT projects

The concession agreement is the core feature of BOT projects, with the concession period being the most essential feature in determining the time span of the various rights, obligations and responsibilities of the government and concessionaire. Concession period design is therefore crucial for financial viability and determining the benefit/cost allocation between the host government and the concessionaire. However, while the concession period and project life span are essentially interdependent, most methods to date consider their determination as contiguous events that are determined exogenously. Moreover, these methods seldom consider the, often uncertain, social benefits and costs involved that are critical in defining, pricing and distributing benefits and costs between the various parties and evaluating potentially distributable cash flows. In this paper, we present the results of the first stage of a research project aimed at determining the optimal build-operate-transfer (BOT) project life span and concession period endogenously and interdependently by maximizing the combined benefits of stakeholders. Based on the estimation of the economic and social development involved, a negotiation space of the concession period interval is obtained, with its lower boundary creating the desired financial return for the private investors and its upper boundary ensuring the economic feasibility of the host government as well as the maximized welfare within the project life. The outcome of the new quantitative model is considered as a suitable basis for future field trials prior to implementation. The structure and details of the model are provided in the paper with Hong Kong tunnel project as a case study to demonstrate its detailed application. The basic contributions of the paper to the theory of construction procurement are that the project life span and concession period are determined jointly and the social benefits taken into account in the examination of project financial benefits. In practical terms, the model goes beyond the current practice of linear-process thinking and should enable engineering consultants to provide project information more rationally and accurately to BOT project bidders and increase the government's prospects of successfully entering into a contract with a concessionaire. This is expected to generate more negotiation space for the government and concessionaire in determining the major socioeconomic features of individual BOT contracts when negotiating the concession period. As a result, the use of the model should increase the total benefit to both parties.

Airway Inflammation and Bronchial Hyperresponsiveness in Elite Cross-Country Skiers and in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Asthma: A Bronchial Biopsy Study

The objective of these studies was to evaluate possible airway inflammation and remodeling at the bronchial level in cross-country skiers without a prior diagnosis of asthma, and relate the findings to patients with mild chronic asthma and patients with newly diagnosed asthma. We also studied the association of airway inflammatory changes and bronchial hyperresponsivess (BHR), and treatment effects in cross-country skiers and in patients with newly diagnosed asthma. Bronchial biopsies were obtained from the subjects by flexible bronchoscopy, and the inflammatory cells (eosinophils, mast cells, T-lymphocytes, macrophages, and neutrophils) were identified by immunohistochemistry. Tenascin (Tn) immunoreactivity in the bronchial basement membrane (BM) was identified by immunofluorescence staining. Lung function was measured with spirometry, and BHR was assessed by methacholine (skiers) or histamine (asthmatics) challenges. Skiers with BHR and asthma-like symptoms were recruited to a drug-intervention study. Skiers were given treatment (22 weeks) with placebo or budesonide (400 µg bid). Patients with newly diagnosed asthma were given treatment for 16 weeks with placebo, salmeterol (SLM) (50 µg bid), fluticasone propionate (FP) (250 µg bid), or disodium cromoglicate (DSCG) (5 mg qid). Bronchial biopsies were obtained at baseline and at the end of the treatment period. In the skiers a distinct airway inflammation was evident. In their bronchial biopsy specimens, T-lymphocyte, macrophage, and eosinophil counts were, respectively greater by 43-fold (P<0.001), 26-fold (P<0.001, and 2-fold (P<0.001) in skiers, and by 70-fold (p>0.001), 63-fold (P<0.001), and 8-fold (P<0.001) in asthmatic subjects than in controls. In skiers, neutrophil counts were more than 2-fold greater than in asthmatic subjects (P<0.05). Tn expression was higher in skiers than in controls and lower in skiers than in mild asthmatics. No significant changes were seen between skiers with or without BHR in the inflammatory cell counts or Tn expression. Treatment with inhaled budesonide did not attenuate asthma-like symptoms, the inflammatory cell infiltration, or BM Tn expression in the skiers. In newly diagnosed asthmatic patients, SLM, FP, and DSCG reduced asthma symptoms, and need for rescue medication (P<0.04). BHR was reduced by doubling doses 2.78, 5.22, and 1.35 respectively (all P<0.05). SLM and placebo had no effect on cell counts or Tn expression. FP and DSCG reduced eosinophil counts in the bronchial biopsy specimens (P<0.02 and <0.048, respectively). No significant change in tenascin expression appeared in any treatment group. Regarding to atopy, no significant differences existed in the inflammatory cell counts in the bronchial mucosa of subjects with newly diagnosed asthma or in elite cross country skiers. Tn expression in the BM was significantly higher in atopic asthma than in those with nonatopic asthma. Airway inflammation occurred in elite cross-country skiers with and without respiratory symptoms or BHR. Their inflammatory cell pattern differed from that in asthma. Infiltration with eosinophils, macrophages, and mast cells was milder, but lymphocyte counts did not differ from counts in asthmatic airways. Neutrophilic infiltration was more extensive in skiers than in asthmatics. Remodeling took place in the skiers’ airways, as reflected by increased expression of BM tenascin These inflammatory changes and Tn expression may be caused by prolonged exposure of the lower airways to inadequately humidified cold air. In skiers inflammatory changes and remodeling were not reversed with anti-inflammatory treatment. In contrast, in patients with newly diagnosed asthma, anti-inflammatory treatment did attenuate eosinophilic inflammation in the bronchial mucosa. In skiers, anti-inflammatory treatment did not attenuate BHR as it did in asthmatic patients. The BHR in skiers was attenuated spontaneously during placebo treatment, with no difference from budesonide treatment. Lower training intensity during the treatment period may explain this spontaneous decrease in BHR. The origin of BHR probably differs in skiers and in asthmatics. No significant association between BHR and inflammatory cell counts or between BHR and Tn expression was evident in cross-country skiers or asthmatic subjects. Airway remodeling differed between atopic and nonatopic asthma. As opposed to nonatopic asthma, Tn expression was higher in atopic asthma and is related to inflammatory cell densities.

Causes of death in patients with rheumatoid arthritis over a 40-year period : with special emphasis on autopsy

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have premature mortality. Contrary to the general population, mortality in RA has not declined over time. This study aimed to evaluate determinants of mortality in RA by examining causes of death (CoDs) over time, accuracy of CoD diagnoses, and contribution of RA medication to CoDs. This study further evaluated detection rate of reactive systemic amyloid A amyloidosis, which is an important contributor to RA mortality. CoDs were examined in 960 RA patients between 1971 and 1991 (Study population A) and in 369 RA patients autopsied from 1952 to 1991, with non-RA patients serving as the reference cases (Study population B). In Study population B, CoDs by the clinician before autopsy were compared to those by the pathologist at autopsy to study accuracy of CoD diagnoses. In Study population B, autopsy tissue samples were re-examined systematically for amyloidosis (90% of patients) and clinical data for RA patients was studied from 1973. RA patients died most frequently of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), infections, and RA. RA deaths declined over time. Coronary deaths showed no major change in Study population A, but, in Study population B, coronary deaths in RA patients increased from 1952 to 1991, while non-RA cases had a decrease in coronary deaths starting in the 1970s. Between CoD diagnoses by the clinician and those by the pathologist, RA patients had lower agreement than non-RA cases regarding cardiovascular (Kappa reliability measure: 0.31 vs. 0.51) and coronary deaths (0.33 vs. 0.46). Use of disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs was not associated with any CoD. In RA patients, re-examination of autopsy tissue samples doubled the prevalence of amyloid compared with the original autopsy: from 18% to 30%. In the amyloid-positive RA patients, amyloidosis was diagnosed before autopsy in only 37%; and they had higher inflammatory levels and longer duration of RA than amyloid-negative RA patients. Of the RA patients with amyloid, only half had renal failure or proteinuria during lifetime. In RA, most important determinants of mortality were CVDs, RA, and infections. In RA patients, RA deaths decreased over time, but this was not true for coronary deaths. Coronary death being less accurately diagnosed in RA may indicate that coronary heart disease (CHD) often goes unrecognized during lifetime. Thus, active search for CHD and its effective treatment is important to reduce cardiovascular mortality. Reactive amyloidosis may often go undetected. In RA patients with proteinuria or renal failure, as well as with active and long-lasting RA, a systematic search for amyloid is important to enable early diagnosis and early enhancement of therapy. This is essential to prevent clinical manifestations of amyloidosis such as renal failure, which has a poor prognosis.

Mothers' sleepiness and driving in the postpartum period

The postpartum period is typically a time of increased sleepiness, however little research has investigated mothers' sleepiness whilst driving during this period. The research presented in this thesis details three studies systematically designed to assess postpartum mothers' sleepiness and driving, followed by the utilisation of this information in the development of an information-based program designed to convey pertinent evidence-based information about postpartum sleepiness, sleep, and sleepy driving.

Chronopotentiometry with power-law perturbation functions at an expanding plane electrode with and without a preceding blank period for systems with a coupled first-order homogeneous chemical reaction

The systems formalism is used to obtain the interfacial concentration transients for power-law current input at an expanding plane electrode. The explicit results for the concentration transients obtained here pertain to arbitrary homogeneous reaction schemes coupled to the oxidant and reductant of a single charge-transfer step and the power-law form without and with a preceding blank period (for two types of power-law current profile, say, (i) I(t) = I0(t−t0)q for t greater-or-equal, slanted t0, I(t) = 0 for t < t0; and (ii) I(t) = I0tq for t greater-or-equal, slanted t0, I(t) = 0 for t < t0). Finally the potential transients are obtained using Padé approximants. The results of Galvez et al. (for E, CE, EC, aC) (J. Electroanal. Chem., 132 (1982) 15; 146 (1983) 221, 233, 243), Molina et al. (for E) (J. Electroanal. Chem., 227 (1987) 1 and Kies (for E) (J. Electroanal. Chem., 45 (1973) 71) are obtained as special cases.

Observation of the doubling of critical exponents in reentrant phase transitions

Electrical resistance (R) measurements are reported for ternary mixtures of 3-methylpyridine, water and heavy water as a function of temperature (T) and heavy water content in total water. These mixtures exhibit a limited two-phase region marked by a loop size (ΔT) that goes to zero as the double critical point (DCP) is approached. The measurements scanned the ΔT range 1.010°C less-than-or-equals, slant ΔT less-than-or-equals, slant 77.5°C. The critical exponent (θ), which signifies the divergence of ∂R/∂T, doubles within our experimental uncertainties as the DCP is reached very closely.

Luteal-phase defect induced by deprivation of FSH at a specific period of the follicular phase prevents pregnancy in the bonnet monkey (Macaca radiata)

Female bonnet monkeys were injected i.v. with 25 µl antiserum to FSH on Days 5, 6 or 7 of the cycle: the length of the luteal phase was shortened but there was no alteration in cycle length. Proven fertile females (N = 6) were caged throughout the period of the experiment (6 cycles) with proven fertile males and treated with 25 µl FSH antiserum on Day 7 of each of 3 successive cycles. Out of 18 cycle exposures during the treatment phase, 17 were ovulatory, but no pregnancies occurred. In the post-treatment phase, 5 monkeys became pregnant within 3 cycle exposures. These results show that it is possible to render female monkeys infertile by creating luteal insufficiency and this can be achieved repeatedly in a reproducible manner by depriving the cyclic females of FSH support on Day 7 of consecutive cycles.

On the bifurcation in a “modulated” logistic map

We comment on a paper by Luang [On the bifurcation in a ''modulated'' logistic map, Physics Letters A 194(1994) 57]. The numerical evidence given in that paper, for a peculiar type of bifurcation, is shown to be incorrect. The causes of such anomalous results are explained. An accurate bifurcation diagram for the map is also given.

Secretion of endocrine signals by the primate embryo during the peri-implantation period

Development of preimplantation embryos and blastocyst implantation are critical early events in the establishment of pregnancy. In primates, embryonic signals, secreted during the peri-implantation period, are believed to play a major role in the regulation of embryonic differentiation and implantation. However, only limited progress has been made in the molecular and functional characterization of embryonic signals, partly due to severe paucity of primate embryos and the lack of optimal culture conditions to obtain viable embryo development. Two embryonic (endocrine) secretions, i.e. chorionic gonadotrophin (CG) and gonadotrophin releasing hormone (GnRH) are being studied. This article reviews the current status of knowledge on the recovery and culture of embryos, their secretion of CG, GnRH and other potential endocrine signals and their regulation and physiological role(s) during the peri-implantation period in primates, including humans.

The effect of boundaries on the plane Couette flow of granular materials: a bifurcation analysis

The tendency of granular materials in rapid shear flow to form non-uniform structures is well documented in the literature. Through a linear stability analysis of the solution of continuum equations for rapid shear flow of a uniform granular material, performed by Savage (1992) and others subsequently, it has been shown that an infinite plane shearing motion may be unstable in the Lyapunov sense, provided the mean volume fraction of particles is above a critical value. This instability leads to the formation of alternating layers of high and low particle concentrations oriented parallel to the plane of shear. Computer simulations, on the other hand, reveal that non-uniform structures are possible even when the mean volume fraction of particles is small. In the present study, we have examined the structure of fully developed layered solutions, by making use of numerical continuation techniques and bifurcation theory. It is shown that the continuum equations do predict the existence of layered solutions of high amplitude even when the uniform state is linearly stable. An analysis of the effect of bounding walls on the bifurcation structure reveals that the nature of the wall boundary conditions plays a pivotal role in selecting that branch of non-uniform solutions which emerges as the primary branch. This demonstrates unequivocally that the results on the stability of bounded shear how of granular materials presented previously by Wang et al. (1996) are, in general, based on erroneous base states.