Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the three-dimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years “target” simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-to-high latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied everywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained large-scale observations of this field.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

Interannual-decadal variability of wintertime mixed layer depths in the North Pacific detected by an ensemble of ocean syntheses

The interannual-decadal variability of the wintertime mixed layer depths (MLDs) over the North Pacific is investigated from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses. The first leading EOF mode represents the interannual MLD anomalies centered in the eastern part of the central mode water formation region in phase opposition with those in the eastern subtropics and the central Alaskan Gyre. This first EOF mode is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index on both the interannual and decadal time scales. The second leading EOF mode represents the MLD variability in the subtropical mode water (STMW) formation region and has a good correlation with the wintertime West Pacific (WP) index with time lag of 3 years, suggesting the importance of the oceanic dynamical response to the change in the surface wind field associated with the meridional shifts of the Aleutian Low. The above MLD variabilities are in basic agreement with previous observational and modeling findings. Moreover the reanalysis ensemble provides uncertainty estimates. The interannual MLD anomalies in the first and second EOF modes are consistently represented by the individual reanalyses and the amplitudes of the variabilities generally exceed the ensemble spread of the reanalyses. Besides, the resulting MLD variability indices, spanning the 1948–2012 period, should be helpful for characterizing the North Pacific climate variability. In particular, a 6-year oscillation including the WP teleconnection pattern in the atmosphere and the oceanic MLD variability in the STMW formation region is first detected.

Spatio-temporal variability of polynya dynamics and ice production in the Laptev Sea between the winters of 1979/80 and 2007/08

Polynyas in the Laptev Sea are examined with respect to recurrence and interannual wintertime ice production.We use a polynya classification method based on passive microwave satellite data to derive daily polynya area from long-term sea-ice concentrations. This provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability of open-water and thin-ice regions on the Laptev Sea Shelf. Using thermal infrared satellite data to derive an empirical thin-ice distribution within the thickness range from 0 to 20 cm, we calculate daily average surface heat loss and the resulting wintertime ice formation within the Laptev Sea polynyas between 1979 and 2008 using reanalysis data supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA, as atmospheric forcing. Results indicate that previous studies significantly overestimate the contribution of polynyas to the ice production in the Laptev Sea. Average wintertime ice production in polynyas amounts to approximately 55 km39 27% and is mostly determined by the polynya area, wind speed and associated large-scale circulation patterns. No trend in ice production could be detected in the period from 1979/80 to 2007/08.

Simulating decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

Observations and climate models suggest significant decadal variability within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG), though observations are sparse and models disagree on the details of this variability. Therefore, it is important to understand 1) the mechanisms of simulated decadal variability, 2) which parts of simulated variability are more faithful representations of reality, and 3) the implications for climate predictions. Here, we investigate the decadal variability in the NA SPG in the state-of-the-art, high resolution (0.25◦ ocean resolution), climate model ‘HadGEM3’. We find a decadal mode with a period of 17 years that explains 30% of the annual variance in related indices. The mode arises due to the advection of heat content anomalies, and shows asymmetries in the timescale of phase reversal between positive and negative phases. A negative feedback from temperature-driven density anomalies in the Labrador Sea (LS) allows for the phase reversal. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exhibits the same periodicity, amplifies the mode. The atmosphere-ocean coupling is stronger during positive rather than negative NAO states, explaining the asymmetry. Within the NA SPG, there is potential predictability arising partly from this mode for up to 5 years. There are important similarities between observed and simulated variability, such as the apparent role for the propagation of heat content anomalies. However, observations suggest interannual LS density anomalies are salinity-driven. Salinity control of density would change the temperature feedback to the south, possibly limiting real-world predictive skill in the southern NA SPG with this model. Finally, to understand the diversity of behaviours, we analyse 42 present-generation climate models. Temperature and salinity biases are found to systematically influence the driver of density variability in the LS. Resolution is a good predictor of the biases. The dependence of variability on the background state has important implications for decadal predictions.

Climate variability and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (NE Mediterranean) during the last 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multidecadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 �C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 �C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 АD ‘unknown’ and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

Precipitation variability in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

The State of Sao Paulo is the richest in Brazil, responsible for over 30% of the Brazilian gross rate. It has a population of around 30 million and its economy is based on agriculture and industrial products. Any change in climate can have a profound influence on the socio-economics of the State. In order to determine changes in total and extreme rainfall over Sao Paulo State, climate change indices derived from daily precipitation data were calculated using specially designed software. Maps of trends for a subset of 59 rain gauge stations were analysed for the period 1950-1999 and also for a subset of this period, 1990-1999, representing more recent climate. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to the time series. Maps of trends for six annual precipitation indices (annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), events greater than the 95th percentile (R95p), maximum five days precipitation total (RX5day), the length of the largest wet spell (CWD) and the length of the largest dry spell (CDD)) were analysed for the entire period. These exhibited statistically significant trends associated with a wetter climate. A significant increase in PRCPTOT, associated with very heavy precipitation days, were observed at more than 45% of the rain gauge stations. The Mann-Kendall test identified that the positive trend in PRCPTOT is possibly related to the increase in the R95p and R20mm indices. Therefore, the results suggest that there has been a change in precipitation intensity. In contrast, the indices for the more recent shorter time series are significantly different to the longer term indices. The results indicate that intense precipitation is becoming concentrated in a few days and spread over the period when the CDD and R20mm indices show positive trends, while negative ones are seen in the RX5day index. The trends found could be related to many anthropogenic aspects such as biomass burning aerosols and land use.

Genetic Variability of Human Metapneumovirus Isolated From Chilean Children, 2003-2004

Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) is a significant cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection in all age groups, particularly in children. Two genetic groups and four subgroups of hMPV have been described. They co-circulate during an epidemic in variable proportions. The aims were to characterize the genotypes of hMPV recovered from children hospitalized for acute lower respiratory tract infection and to establish the molecular epidemiology of strains circulating in Santiago of Chile during a 2-year period. The detection of the N gene by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction was carried out for screening 545 infants hospitalized for acute lower respiratory tract infection in Santiago during 2003-2004. The genetic typing of hMPV was performed by analyzing the fusion gene sequences. hMPV was detected in 10.2% (56/545 cases). Phylogenetic analysis of F gene sequences from 39 Chilean hMPV strains identified the two groups and four subgroups previously described. Strains clustered into group A were split further into the sub lineages A1, A2, and A3. Most Chilean strains clustered into the proposed novel A3 sub lineage (59%). A3 viruses were present in both years, while A1 and A2 circulated just in I year. In conclusion, hMPV is a relevant cause of acute lower respiratory infection in Chilean children and the potential novel cluster of group A emphasize the need for further regional genetic variability studies. J. Med. Virol. 81:340-344, 2009. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Spatial variability of soil CO2 emission in a sugarcane area characterized by secondary information

Soil CO2 emission (FCO2) is governed by the inherent properties of the soil, such as bulk density (BD). Mapping of FCO2 allows the evaluation and identification of areas with different accumulation potential of carbon. However, FCO2 mapping over larger areas is not feasible due to the period required for evaluation. This study aimed to assess the quality of FCO2 spatial estimates using values of BD as secondary information. FCO2 and BD were evaluated on a regular sampling grid of 60 m × 60 m comprising 141 points, which was established on a sugarcane area. Four scenarios were defined according to the proportion of the number of sampling points of FCO2 to those of BD. For these scenarios, 67 (F67), 87 (F87), 107 (F107) and 127 (F127) FCO2 sampling points were used in addition to 127 BD sampling points used as supplementary information. The use of additional information from the BD provided an increase in the accuracy of the estimates only in the F107, F67 and F87 scenarios, respectively. The F87 scenario, with the approximate ratio between the FCO2 and BD of 1.00:1.50, presented the best relative improvement in the quality of estimates, thereby indicating that the BD should be sampled at a density 1.5 time greater than that applied for the FCO2. This procedure avoided problems related to the high temporal variability associated with FCO2, which enabled the mapping of this variable to be elaborated in large areas.

Nonlinear methods of heart rate variability analysis in diabetes

Background: The autonomic dysfunction stands out among the complications associated to diabetes mellitus (DM) and may be evaluated through the heart rate variability (HRV), a noninvasive tool to investigate the autonomic nervous system that provides information of health impairments and may be analyzed by using linear and nonlinear methods. Several studies have shown that HRV measured in a linear form is altered in DM. Nevertheless, a few studies investigate the nonlinear behavior of HRV. Therefore, this study aims at gathering information regarding the autonomic changes in subjects with DM identified by nonlinear analysis of HRV.Methods: For that, searches were performed on Medline, SciELO, Lilacs and Cochrane databases using the crossing between the key-words: diabetic autonomic neuropathy, autonomic nervous system, diabetes mellitus and heart rate variability. As inclusion criteria, articles published on a period from 2000 to 2010 with DM type land type II population which assessed the autonomic nervous system by nonlinear indices HRV were considered.Results: The electronic search resulted in a total of 1873 references with the exclusion of 1623 titles and abstracts and from the 250 abstracts remaining, 8 studies were selected to the final analysis that completed the inclusion criteria.Conclusions: In general, the analysis showed that the nonlinear techniques of HRV allowed detecting autonomic changes in DM. The methods of nonlinear analysis are indicated as a possible tool to be used for early diagnosis and prognosis of autonomic dysfunction in DM.

Variability of the conserved V3 loop tip motif in HIV-1 subtype B isolates collected from Brazilian and French patients

The diversity of the V3 loop tip motif sequences of HIV-1 subtype B was analyzed in patients from Botucatu (Brazil) and Montpellier (France). Overall, 37 tetrameric tip motifs were identified, 28 and 17 of them being recognized in Brazilian and French patients, respectively. The GPGR (P) motif was predominant in French but not in Brazilian patients (53.5% vs 31.0%), whereas the GWGR (W) motif was frequent in Brazilian patients (23.0%) and absent in French patients. Three tip motif groups were considered: P, W, and non-P non-W groups. The distribution of HIV-1 isolates into the three groups was significantly different between isolates from Botucatu and from Montpellier (P < 0.001). A higher proportion of CXCR4-using HIV-1 (X4 variants) was observed in the non-P non-W group as compared with the P group (37.5% vs 19.1%), and no X4 variant was identified in the W group (P < 0.001). The higher proportion of X4 variants in the non-P non-W group was essentially observed among the patients from Montpellier, who have been infected with HIV-1 for a longer period of time than those from Botucatu. Among patients from Montpellier, CD4+ cell counts were lower in patients belonging to the non-P non-W group than in those belonging to the P group (24 cells/µL vs 197 cells/µL; P = 0.005). Taken together, the results suggest that variability of the V3 loop tip motif may be related to HIV-1 coreceptor usage and to disease progression. However, as analyzed by a bioinformatic method, the substitution of the V3 loop tip motif of the subtype B consensus sequence with the different tip motifs identified in the present study was not sufficient to induce a change in HIV-1 coreceptor usage.

Short-term variability of copepod abundance in Jurumirim Reservoir, São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

On the development of the brown spider Loxosceles gaucho Gertsch (Araneae, Sicariidae): the nympho-imaginal period

Observations of the developmental biology of Loxosceles gaucho Gertsch, 1967, the brown spider of southeastern Brazil are scarce. The present study reports the method of individualized rearing of 18 populations of L. gaucho, kept in laboratory under varied diet conditions, and characterizes their nympho-imaginal period as well as factors related to their reproduction. Females built the first egg sac about 20 days after copulation and nymphs hatched 40 days after the laying date. Average offspring was 61.3 spiderlings and females usually built three to four successive egg sacs in a period of five to seven months. First nymphs initiated their predatory activity between the 5th and 8th days after hatching and the majority reached adulthood within six moults (range of five to eight) in approximately 15 to 17 months (male) and 15.5 to 18 months (female). The average sex ratio equaled 1.0:1.7 (male:female). The wide individual variability of this species intermoult intervals is herewith expressed by the intermoult rate, which was fairly uniform for both intra and interpopulations and gives a relevant aspect for a general idea of the life cycles of spiders.

Aging reduces complexity of heart rate variability assessed by conditional entropy and symbolic analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)