Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

Design Parameter Analysis of Point Absorber WEC via an Evolutionary-Algorithm-Based Dimensioning Tool

Wave energy conversion has an essential difference from other renewable energies since the dependence between the devices design and the energy resource is stronger. Dimensioning is therefore considered a key stage when a design project of Wave Energy Converters (WEC) is undertaken. Location, WEC concept, Power Take-Off (PTO) type, control strategy and hydrodynamic resonance considerations are some of the critical aspects to take into account to achieve a good performance. The paper proposes an automatic dimensioning methodology to be accomplished at the initial design project stages and the following elements are described to carry out the study: an optimization design algorithm, its objective functions and restrictions, a PTO model, as well as a procedure to evaluate the WEC energy production. After that, a parametric analysis is included considering different combinations of the key parameters previously introduced. A variety of study cases are analysed from the point of view of energy production for different design-parameters and all of them are compared with a reference case. Finally, a discussion is presented based on the results obtained, and some recommendations to face the WEC design stage are given.

A new form of harmonic synthetiser.

Reprinted from the Proceedings of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, session 1905-1906, v. 76, pt. 4.

Fast reconstruction of harmonic functions from Cauchy data using the Dirichlet-to-Neumann map and integral equations

We propose and investigate a method for the stable determination of a harmonic function from knowledge of its value and its normal derivative on a part of the boundary of the (bounded) solution domain (Cauchy problem). We reformulate the Cauchy problem as an operator equation on the boundary using the Dirichlet-to-Neumann map. To discretize the obtained operator, we modify and employ a method denoted as Classic II given in [J. Helsing, Faster convergence and higher accuracy for the Dirichlet–Neumann map, J. Comput. Phys. 228 (2009), pp. 2578–2576, Section 3], which is based on Fredholm integral equations and Nyström discretization schemes. Then, for stability reasons, to solve the discretized integral equation we use the method of smoothing projection introduced in [J. Helsing and B.T. Johansson, Fast reconstruction of harmonic functions from Cauchy data using integral equation techniques, Inverse Probl. Sci. Eng. 18 (2010), pp. 381–399, Section 7], which makes it possible to solve the discretized operator equation in a stable way with minor computational cost and high accuracy. With this approach, for sufficiently smooth Cauchy data, the normal derivative can also be accurately computed on the part of the boundary where no data is initially given.

Fast reconstruction of harmonic functions from Cauchy data using integral equation techniques

We consider the problem of stable determination of a harmonic function from knowledge of the solution and its normal derivative on a part of the boundary of the (bounded) solution domain. The alternating method is a procedure to generate an approximation to the harmonic function from such Cauchy data and we investigate a numerical implementation of this procedure based on Fredholm integral equations and Nyström discretization schemes, which makes it possible to perform a large number of iterations (millions) with minor computational cost (seconds) and high accuracy. Moreover, the original problem is rewritten as a fixed point equation on the boundary, and various other direct regularization techniques are discussed to solve that equation. We also discuss how knowledge of the smoothness of the data can be used to further improve the accuracy. Numerical examples are presented showing that accurate approximations of both the solution and its normal derivative can be obtained with much less computational time than in previous works.

Parameter Identification of a Fed-Batch Cultivation of S. Cerevisiae using Genetic Algorithms

Fermentation processes as objects of modelling and high-quality control are characterized with interdependence and time-varying of process variables that lead to non-linear models with a very complex structure. This is why the conventional optimization methods cannot lead to a satisfied solution. As an alternative, genetic algorithms, like the stochastic global optimization method, can be applied to overcome these limitations. The application of genetic algorithms is a precondition for robustness and reaching of a global minimum that makes them eligible and more workable for parameter identification of fermentation models. Different types of genetic algorithms, namely simple, modified and multi-population ones, have been applied and compared for estimation of nonlinear dynamic model parameters of fed-batch cultivation of S. cerevisiae.

Reduced-parameter model of head-related transfer functions for synthesized spatial audio

Digital systems can generate left and right audio channels that create the effect of virtual sound source placement (spatialization) by processing an audio signal through pairs of Head-Related Transfer Functions (HRTFs) or, equivalently, Head-Related Impulse Responses (HRIRs). The spatialization effect is better when individually-measured HRTFs or HRIRs are used than when generic ones (e.g., from a mannequin) are used. However, the measurement process is not available to the majority of users. There is ongoing interest to find mechanisms to customize HRTFs or HRIRs to a specific user, in order to achieve an improved spatialization effect for that subject. Unfortunately, the current models used for HRTFs and HRIRs contain over a hundred parameters and none of those parameters can be easily related to the characteristics of the subject. This dissertation proposes an alternative model for the representation of HRTFs, which contains at most 30 parameters, all of which have a defined functional significance. It also presents methods to obtain the value of parameters in the model to make it approximately equivalent to an individually-measured HRTF. This conversion is achieved by the systematic deconstruction of HRIR sequences through an augmented version of the Hankel Total Least Squares (HTLS) decomposition approach. An average 95% match (fit) was observed between the original HRIRs and those re-constructed from the Damped and Delayed Sinusoids (DDSs) found by the decomposition process, for ipsilateral source locations. The dissertation also introduces and evaluates an HRIR customization procedure, based on a multilinear model implemented through a 3-mode tensor, for mapping of anatomical data from the subjects to the HRIR sequences at different sound source locations. This model uses the Higher-Order Singular Value Decomposition (HOSVD) method to represent the HRIRs and is capable of generating customized HRIRs from easily attainable anatomical measurements of a new intended user of the system. Listening tests were performed to compare the spatialization performance of customized, generic and individually-measured HRIRs when they are used for synthesized spatial audio. Statistical analysis of the results confirms that the type of HRIRs used for spatialization is a significant factor in the spatialization success, with the customized HRIRs yielding better results than generic HRIRs.

Parameter space of experimental chaotic circuits with high-precision control parameters

The authors thank Professor Iber^e Luiz Caldas for the suggestions and encouragement. The authors F.F.G.d.S., R.M.R., J.C.S., and H.A.A. acknowledge the Brazilian agency CNPq and state agencies FAPEMIG, FAPESP, and FAPESC, and M.S.B. also acknowledges the EPSRC Grant Ref. No. EP/I032606/1.

Generation of harmonic oscillations in ring resonator with high Q-factor

We report on generation of harmonic oscillations with frequencies of hundreds of MHz and radio-frequency linewidth of 13 Hz in unidirectional ring laser oscillator. This high stability makes these oscillators a suitable substitute for existing quartz resonators used in high frequency optoelectronics applications.

An experiment on the parameter uncertainty of hydrological models with different levels of complexity in a climate change context

La possibilité d’estimer l’impact du changement climatique en cours sur le comportement hydrologique des hydro-systèmes est une nécessité pour anticiper les adaptations inévitables et nécessaires que doivent envisager nos sociétés. Dans ce contexte, ce projet doctoral présente une étude sur l’évaluation de la sensibilité des projections hydrologiques futures à : (i) La non-robustesse de l’identification des paramètres des modèles hydrologiques, (ii) l’utilisation de plusieurs jeux de paramètres équifinaux et (iii) l’utilisation de différentes structures de modèles hydrologiques. Pour quantifier l’impact de la première source d’incertitude sur les sorties des modèles, quatre sous-périodes climatiquement contrastées sont tout d’abord identifiées au sein des chroniques observées. Les modèles sont calés sur chacune de ces quatre périodes et les sorties engendrées sont analysées en calage et en validation en suivant les quatre configurations du Different Splitsample Tests (Klemeš, 1986;Wilby, 2005; Seiller et al. (2012);Refsgaard et al. (2014)). Afin d’étudier la seconde source d’incertitude liée à la structure du modèle, l’équifinalité des jeux de paramètres est ensuite prise en compte en considérant pour chaque type de calage les sorties associées à des jeux de paramètres équifinaux. Enfin, pour évaluer la troisième source d’incertitude, cinq modèles hydrologiques de différents niveaux de complexité sont appliqués (GR4J, MORDOR, HSAMI, SWAT et HYDROTEL) sur le bassin versant québécois de la rivière Au Saumon. Les trois sources d’incertitude sont évaluées à la fois dans conditions climatiques observées passées et dans les conditions climatiques futures. Les résultats montrent que, en tenant compte de la méthode d’évaluation suivie dans ce doctorat, l’utilisation de différents niveaux de complexité des modèles hydrologiques est la principale source de variabilité dans les projections de débits dans des conditions climatiques futures. Ceci est suivi par le manque de robustesse de l’identification des paramètres. Les projections hydrologiques générées par un ensemble de jeux de paramètres équifinaux sont proches de celles associées au jeu de paramètres optimal. Par conséquent, plus d’efforts devraient être investis dans l’amélioration de la robustesse des modèles pour les études d’impact sur le changement climatique, notamment en développant les structures des modèles plus appropriés et en proposant des procédures de calage qui augmentent leur robustesse. Ces travaux permettent d’apporter une réponse détaillée sur notre capacité à réaliser un diagnostic des impacts des changements climatiques sur les ressources hydriques du bassin Au Saumon et de proposer une démarche méthodologique originale d’analyse pouvant être directement appliquée ou adaptée à d’autres contextes hydro-climatiques.