Population, ageing and development

Includes bibliography

Population, social equity and changing production patterns

Includes bibliography

Proyecciones de población = Population projections

El Observatorio Demográfico 2013 contiene indicadores seleccionados de la revisión de 2013 de las estimaciones y proyecciones de la población analizada. Las cifras contenidas en esta publicación constituyen una revisión de las presentadas en el Observatorio 2012. En esta oportunidad, se actualizaron las estimaciones y proyecciones de la población urbana y rural desde 1950 hasta 2050, extendiéndose el período de estimación y de proyección. La metodología utilizada es la habitual, pero en esta oportunidad se ajustaron las tendencias observadas para lograr una proyección de más largo plazo en los países que no cuentan con censos de la década de 2010. En las próximas ediciones se irán incorporando las nuevas estimaciones y proyecciones de población en que se consideren los censos más recientes y otras fuentes a medida que estén disponibles. Como es habitual, se incluye un capítulo en el que se analizan las tendencias demográficas. En esta oportunidad, se examinan el crecimiento y la perspectiva de la población urbana en la región. En las notas técnicas de este Observatorio se enumeran las fuentes de datos consideradas para cada país. Cabe señalar que la información correspondiente a las estimaciones y proyecciones de la población nacional, urbana, rural y económicamente activa está disponible en formato de hojas de cálculo en el sitio web del CELADE-División de Población de la CEPAL (http://www.eclac.org/celade/).

Proyecciones de población = Population projections

El Observatorio Demográfico 2015 reúne indicadores seleccionados de la revisión de 2015 de las estimaciones y proyecciones de la población nacional, urbana, rural y económicamente activa. Las cifras contenidas en esta publicación constituyen una revisión de las presentadas en el Observatorio 2014. En esta oportunidad, se actualizaron las estimaciones y proyecciones de la población a nivel nacional desde 1950 hasta 2100, considerando las nuevas fuentes de información disponibles para Chile y Guatemala. En las próximas ediciones se irán incorporando las nuevas estimaciones y proyecciones de población, elaboradas con el método de los componentes, pero por edades simples y años calendario. Como es habitual, se incluye un capítulo en el que se analizan las tendencias demográficas. En esta oportunidad, se examinan los avances en el descenso de la fecundidad más allá de lo proyectado a fines de la década de 1980 y su impacto en el crecimiento de la población. En las notas técnicas de este Observatorio se enumeran las fuentes de datos consideradas para cada país.

Demography and population viability of polar bears in the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut

We estimated demographic parameters and harvest risks for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) inhabiting the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut, from 1976 to 2000. We computed survival and abundance from capture–recapture and recovery data (630 marks) using a Burnham joint live–dead model implemented in program MARK. Annual mean total survival (including harvest) was 0.889 ± 0.179 ( x ± 1 SE) for cubs, 0.883 ± 0.087 for subadults (ages 1–4), 0.919 ± 0.044 for adult females, and 0.917 ± 0.041 for adult males. Abundance in the last 3 yr of study was 1,592 ± 361 bears. Mean size of newborn litters was 1.648 ± 0.098 cubs. By age 7, 0.97 ± 0.30 of available females were producing litters. Harvest averaged 38.4 ± 4.2 bears/year in the last 5 yr of study; however, the 2002–2007 kill averaged 56.4 bears/yr. We used a harvested Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to examine impacts of increasing rates of harvest. We estimated the current population growth rate, λH, to be 1.025 ± 0.032. Although this suggests the population is growing, progressive environmental changes may require more frequent population inventory studies to maintain the same levels of harvest risk.

Three Counties Saw the Majority of Nebraska’s Housing Growth 2007 – 2008

According to estimates released by the Bureau of the Census in August, 2009, Nebraska’s total housing stock increased by 5,529 units between July 1, 2007 and July 1, 2008, an increase of 0.7 percent for the year. This represented an estimated rate of growth in housing stock slightly below the state’s estimated rate of population growth, which was 0.8 percent for the same time period.

Model complexity affects transient population dynamics following a dispersal event: A case study with pea aphids

Stage-structured population models predict transient population dynamics if the population deviates from the stable stage distribution. Ecologists’ interest in transient dynamics is growing because populations regularly deviate from the stable stage distribution, which can lead to transient dynamics that differ significantly from the stable stage dynamics. Because the structure of a population matrix (i.e., the number of life-history stages) can influence the predicted scale of the deviation, we explored the effect of matrix size on predicted transient dynamics and the resulting amplification of population size. First, we experimentally measured the transition rates between the different life-history stages and the adult fecundity and survival of the aphid, Acythosiphon pisum. Second, we used these data to parameterize models with different numbers of stages. Third, we compared model predictions with empirically measured transient population growth following the introduction of a single adult aphid. We find that the models with the largest number of life-history stages predicted the largest transient population growth rates, but in all models there was a considerable discrepancy between predicted and empirically measured transient peaks and a dramatic underestimation of final population sizes. For instance, the mean population size after 20 days was 2394 aphids compared to the highest predicted population size of 531 aphids; the predicted asymptotic growth rate (λmax) was consistent with the experiments. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are discussed. Includes 4 supplemental files.

Phylodynamics and Dispersal of HRSV Entails Its Permanence in the General Population in between Yearly Outbreaks in Children

Background: Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is one of the major etiologic agents of respiratory tract infections among children worldwide. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here through a comprehensive analysis of the two major HRSV groups A and B (n = 1983) which comprise of several genotypes, we present a complex pattern of population dynamics of HRSV over a time period of 50 years (1956-2006). Circulation pattern of HRSV revealed a series of expansions and fluctuations of co-circulating lineages with a predominance of HRSVA. Positively selected amino acid substitutions of the G glycoprotein occurred upon population growth of GB3 with a 60-nucleotide insertion (GB3 Insert), while other genotypes acquired substitutions upon both population growth and decrease, thus possibly reflecting a role for immune selected epitopes in linkage to the traced substitution sites that may have important relevance for vaccine design. Analysis evidenced the co-circulation and predominance of distinct HRSV genotypes in Brazil and suggested a year-round presence of the virus. In Brazil, GA2 and GA5 were the main culprits of HRSV outbreaks until recently, when the GB3 Insert became highly prevalent. Using Bayesian methods, we determined the dispersal patterns of genotypes through several inferred migratory routes. Conclusions/Significance: Genotypes spread across continents and between neighboring areas. Crucially, genotypes also remained at any given region for extended periods, independent of seasonal outbreaks possibly maintained by re-infecting the general population.

Habitat-specific demography and source-sink dynamics in a population of Siberian jays

P>1. There are a number of models describing population structure, many of which have the capacity to incorporate spatial habitat effects. One such model is the source-sink model, that describes a system where some habitats have a natality that is higher than mortality (source) and others have a mortality that exceeds natality (sink). A source can be maintained in the absence of migration, whereas a sink will go extinct. 2. However, the interaction between population dynamics and habitat quality is complex, and concerns have been raised about the validity of published empirical studies addressing source-sink dynamics. In particular, some of these studies fail to provide data on survival, a significant component in disentangling a sink from a low quality source. Moreover, failing to account for a density-dependent increase in mortality, or decrease in fecundity, can result in a territory being falsely assigned as a sink, when in fact, this density-dependent suppression only decreases the population size to a lower level, hence indicating a 'pseudo-sink'. 3. In this study, we investigate a long-term data set for key components of territory-specific demography (mortality and reproduction) and their relationship to habitat characteristics in the territorial, group-living Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus). We also assess territory-specific population growth rates (r), to test whether spatial population dynamics are consistent with the ideas of source-sink dynamics. 4. Although average mortality did not differ between sexes, habitat-specific mortality did. Female mortality was higher in older forests, a pattern not observed in males. Male mortality only increased with an increasing amount of open areas. Moreover, reproductive success was higher further away from human settlement, indicating a strong effect of human-associated nest predators. 5. Averaged over all years, 76% of the territories were sources. These territories generally consisted of less open areas, and were located further away from human settlement. 6. The source-sink model provides a tool for modelling demography in distinct habitat patches of different quality, which can aid in identifying key habitats within the landscape, and thus, reduce the risk of implementing unsound management decisions.

Do males matter? The role of males in population dynamics

Models of population dynamics generally neglect the presence of males. While this assumption holds under many circumstances, behavioural ecology increasingly tells us that the presence (or absence) of males may have an impact on female fitness, and hence population sizes. Here we ask the question of whether males matter to population dynamics, operationally defined as a dependency of population growth on the relative density of males. We provide simple models, and evaluate the current empirical evidence for them, that illustrate various mechanisms of such male influence: mate searching behavior, male resource use (including effects of sexual dimorphism), sexual harassment and sexual segregation. In each case, theory predicts that males can have an effect on population densities, and in some extreme cases a positive feedback between an increasingly male-biased sex ratio and the effects on female harassment may theoretically even bring about population extinction. The results of this study, and the literature reviewed, show that the males can have a substantial effect on population dynamics, particularly so when human influences result in biased sex ratios.

Population amalgamation and genetic variation: observations on artificially agglomerated tribal populations of Central and South America.

The interpretation of data on genetic variation with regard to the relative roles of different evolutionary factors that produce and maintain genetic variation depends critically on our assumptions concerning effective population size and the level of migration between neighboring populations. In humans, recent population growth and movements of specific ethnic groups across wide geographic areas mean that any theory based on assumptions of constant population size and absence of substructure is generally untenable. We examine the effects of population subdivision on the pattern of protein genetic variation in a total sample drawn from an artificial agglomerate of 12 tribal populations of Central and South America, analyzing the pooled sample as though it were a single population. Several striking findings emerge. (1) Mean heterozygosity is not sensitive to agglomeration, but the number of different alleles (allele count) is inflated, relative to neutral mutation/drift/equilibrium expectation. (2) The inflation is most serious for rare alleles, especially those which originally occurred as tribally restricted "private" polymorphisms. (3) The degree of inflation is an increasing function of both the number of populations encompassed by the sample and of the genetic divergence among them. (4) Treating an agglomerated population as though it were a panmictic unit of long standing can lead to serious biases in estimates of mutation rates, selection pressures, and effective population sizes. Current DNA studies indicate the presence of numerous genetic variants in human populations. The findings and conclusions of this paper are all fully applicable to the study of genetic variation at the DNA level as well.

Socio-economic atlas of Kenya: Depicting the national population census by county and sub-location

The Socio-Economic Atlas of Kenya is the first of its kind to offer high-resolution spatial depictions and analyses of data collected in the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Census . The combination of geographic and socio-eco - nomic data enables policymakers at all levels, development experts, and other interested readers to gain a spatial understanding of dynamics affecting Kenya. Where is the informal economic sector most prominent? Which areas have adequate water and sanitation? Where is population growth being slowed effectively? How do education levels vary throughout the country? And where are poverty rates lowest? Answers to questions such as these, grouped into seven broad themes, are visually illustrated on high-resolution maps. By supplying precise information at the sub-location level and summarizing it at the county level, the atlas facilitates better planning that accounts for local contexts and needs. It is a valuable decision-support tool for government institutions at different administrative levels, educational institutions, and others. Three organizations – two in Kenya and one in Switzerland – worked together to create the atlas: the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the Nanyuki-based Centre for Training and Integrated Research in ASAL Development (CETRAD), and the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) at the University of Bern. Close cooperation between KNBS, CETRAD, and CDE maximized synergies and knowledge exchange.

Population mixing and the risk of childhood leukaemia in Switzerland: a census-based cohort study.

Childhood leukaemia (CL) may have an infectious cause and population mixing may therefore increase the risk of CL. We aimed to determine whether CL was associated with population mixing in Switzerland. We followed children aged <16 years in the Swiss National Cohort 1990-2008 and linked CL cases from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry to the cohort. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all CL, CL at age <5 years and acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) for three measures of population mixing (population growth, in-migration and diversity of origin), stratified by degree of urbanisation. Measures of population mixing were calculated for all municipalities for the 5-year period preceding the 1990 and 2000 censuses. Analyses were based on 2,128,012 children of whom 536 developed CL. HRs comparing highest with lowest quintile of population growth were 1.11 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.65-1.89] in rural and 0.59 (95 % CI 0.43-0.81) in urban municipalities (interaction: p = 0.271). Results were similar for ALL and for CL at age <5 years. For level of in-migration there was evidence of a negative association with ALL. HRs comparing highest with lowest quintile were 0.60 (95 % CI 0.41-0.87) in urban and 0.61 (95 % CI 0.30-1.21) in rural settings. There was little evidence of an association with diversity of origin. This nationwide cohort study of the association between CL and population growth, in-migration and diversity of origin provides little support for the population mixing hypothesis.

Parameters of population dynamics and energetics of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in Sevastopol Bay from January 1995 to March 1996

Population dynamics of abundance and biomass were studied and specific production of population of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi was estimated in the Sevastopol Bay from January 1995 to March 1996. The ctenophores achieved maximum abundance and biomass in July during period of intensive reproduction. Young specimens (<5 mm) contributed during that period as much as 50-87% to total abundance of population. Annually averaged daily specific growth rate was 0.039. Growth, food consumption, and rate of filtration were measured in a laboratory under two concentrations of food (Acartia clausi and Moina micrura: 60 and 100 specimens per liter, 0.35 and 0.60 mg wet weight/l). Both concentrations sustained growth of animals with dry weight less than 20 mg. However these concentrations were insufficient to sustain growth of larger ctenophores. Specific growth rate of the ctenophores with dry weight <20 mg under favorable food conditions was 0.20-0.30 l/day. Specific growth rate of the ctenophores in the Sevastopol Bay never exceeded 0.093 l/day, mean biomass of fodder zooplankton in the bay being 90 mg/m**3 in terms of wet weight. Hence a conclusion was made that population of M. leidyi in the bay was limited by lack of food.

Effects of seawater pCO2 and temperature on shell growth, shell stability, condition and cellular stress of Western Baltic Sea Mytilus edulis (L.) and Arctica islandica (L.)

Acidification of the World's oceans may directly impact reproduction, performance and shell formation of marine calcifying organisms. In addition, since shell production is costly and stress in general draws on an organism's energy budget, shell growth and stability of bivalves should indirectly be affected by environmental stress. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a combination of warming and acidification leads to increased physiological stress (lipofuscin accumulation and mortality) and affects the performance [shell growth, shell breaking force, condition index (Ci)] of young Mytilus edulis and Arctica islandica from the Baltic Sea. We cultured the bivalves in a fully-crossed 2-factorial experimental setup (seawater (sw) pCO2 levels "low", "medium" and "high" for both species, temperature levels 7.5, 10, 16, 20 and 25 °C for M. edulis and 7.5, 10 and 16 °C for A. islandica) for 13 weeks in summer. Mytilus edulis and A. islandica appeared to tolerate wide ranges of sw temperature and pCO2. Lipofuscin accumulation of M. edulis increased with temperature while the Ci decreased, but shell growth of the mussels only sharply decreased while its mortality increased between 20 and 25 °C. In A. islandica, lipofuscin accumulation increased with temperature, whereas the Ci, shell growth and shell breaking force decreased. The pCO2 treatment had only marginal effects on the measured parameters of both bivalve species. Shell growth of both bivalve species was not impaired by under-saturation of the sea water with respect to aragonite and calcite. Furthermore, independently of water temperatures shell breaking force of both species and shell growth of A. islandica remained unaffected by the applied elevated sw pCO2 for several months. Only at the highest temperature (25 °C), growth arrest of M. edulis was recorded at the high sw pCO2 treatment and the Ci of M. edulis was slightly higher at the medium sw pCO2 treatment than at the low and high sw pCO2 treatments. The only effect of elevated sw pCO2 on A. islandica was an increase in lipofuscin accumulation at the high sw pCO2 treatment compared to the medium sw pCO2 treatment. Our results show that, despite this robustness, growth of both M. edulis and A. islandica can be reduced if sw temperatures remain high for several weeks in summer. As large body size constitutes an escape from crab and sea star predation, this can make bivalves presumably more vulnerable to predation with possible negative consequences on population growth. In M. edulis, but not in A. islandica, this effect is amplified by elevated sw pCO2. We follow that combined effects of elevated sw pCO2 and ocean warming might cause shifts in future Western Baltic Sea community structures and ecosystem services; however, only if predators or other interacting species do not suffer as strong from these stressors.