Modelling HIV/AIDS length of stay in Portugal

Tese apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão de Informação pelo Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Using GIS to map the spatial and temporal occurrence of cholera epidemic in Camaroon

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Syphilis seroprevalence estimates of Santa Catarina blood donors in 2010

Introduction Knowledge of blood donor characteristics is essential to better guide clinical and serological screening for hemotherapy. The objective of this study was to determine the syphilis seroprevalence and the associated factors of blood donors in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. Methods This population-based study from the State of Santa Catarina used information obtained from blood donation records. We analyzed 83,396 blood donor records generated from donors who were considered eligible to donate between January and August 2010. The aim of the study was to estimate the syphilis seroprevalence and its relationship with educational level, age, gender, geographical region and having donated blood in the past 12 months. We used descriptive analyses and a Poisson regression to calculate the prevalence ratios for the variables of interest. Results We found a 0.14% overall seroprevalence and significant differences among the following: first-time blood donors (0.19%) versus repeat donors (0.03% to 0.08%); low educational levels (0.30%) versus medium and high educational levels (0.08% to 0.19%); and donors who did not report their residence (0.88%) or age (6.94%) versus those who did. Increased syphilis seroprevalence was also significantly associated with increased age. Conclusion High syphilis seroprevalence was associated with lower educational level, age, first-time donation and the failure to provide age or residence information.

Ecological competition and the incidence of Acinetobacter baumannii bloodstream infections in a teaching hospital in Southeastern Brazil

IntroductionRecently, pathogen ecology has been recognized as an important epidemiological determinant of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). Acinetobacter baumannii is one of the most important agents known to cause HAIs. It is widespread in healthcare settings and exhibits seasonal variations in incidence. Little is known about the impact of competition with other hospital pathogens on the incidence of A. baumannii infection.MethodsWe conducted an ecological study, enrolling patients who presented with healthcare-associated bloodstream infections (HA-BSIs) from 2005 to 2010 at a 450-bed teaching hospital in Brazil. HA-BSIs were said to be present when bacteria or fungi were recovered from blood cultures collected at least three days after admission. Monthly incidence rates were calculated for all HA-BSIs (overall or caused by specific pathogens or groups of pathogens). Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to identify the impacts of the incidence of several pathogens on the incidence of A. baumannii.ResultsThe overall incidence rate of HA-BSI caused by A. baumannii was 2.5 per 10,000 patient-days. In the multivariate analysis, the incidence of HA-BSI caused by A. baumanniiwas negatively associated with the incidence rates of HA-BSI due to Staphylococcus aureus (rate ratio [RR]=0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.80-0.97), Enterobacter spp. (RR=0.84; 95%CI=0.74-0.94) and a pool of less common gram-negative pathogens.ConclusionsOur results suggest that competition between pathogens influences the etiology of HA-BSIs. It would be beneficial to take these findings into account in infection control policies.

Efeito de um resultado falso positivo da leitura da mamografia na não participação no rastreio do cancro da mama : estudo de coorte histórico de um rastreio de base populacional da região de saúde do centro em Portugal

RESUMO - Introdução: O cancro da mama é uma das principais causas de mortalidade por doença oncológica. O rastreio contribui para o aumento da sobrevivência, mas apresenta riscos como a obtenção de um resultado falso positivo com efeitos controversos sobre a participação subsequente. Métodos: Realizou-se um estudo de coorte histórico (2006-2012) de 170.835 mulheres com 45-67 anos, elegíveis para o programa de rastreio do cancro da mama da ARSC,IP. Calcularam-se as medidas de efeito de um falso positivo da leitura na não participação na volta consecutiva de rastreio do cancro da mama, e a associação entre o evento em estudo e factores sociodemográficos, relacionados com o rastreio e com a anamnese, através de análise de regressão de Poisson. Resultados: A incidência de não participação foi 12,13%. A exposição a falso positivo da leitura aumentou 8,01% o risco absoluto de não participação. O falso positivo da leitura da mamografia revelou-se um factor de risco para a não participação (RRa=1,17; IC 1,10-1,25). O efeito protector da existência de participações anteriores foi superior ao efeito dos factores de risco identificados. Identificaram-se outros factores de risco e de protecção. Discussão: De acordo com os factores de risco e de protecção identificados recomendaram-se alterações à operacionalização do programa de rastreio, a manutenção das estatégias adequadas e a realização de estudos futuros para avaliar o efeito de outros factores não incluídos neste estudo. A comunicação do risco associado a um resultado anormal da mamografia é importante para diminuir a ansiedade consequente ao rastreio, devendo ser oferecidas intervenções que promovam a participação no rastreio.

Binge eating prevalence according to obesity degrees and associated factors in women

Objective Investigate binge eating (BE) prevalence in women according to the obesity degree and assess the associated factors. Methods Cross-sectional study with female adults presenting body mass index (BMI) ≥ 35 kg/m2. The analyzed variables were: sociodemographics, health status, obesity history, lifestyle, eating behavior and obesity degree. In order to analyse BE it was used the Binge Eating Scale (BES), which is considered positive when BES ≥ 18 points. Prevalence and prevalence ratios (PR) were calculated with confidence intervals (CI) of 95%. Multivariate analysis was carried out using Poisson regression. Results BE prevalence was 53.2%, and the prevalence in super superobese women (BMI ≥ 60 kg/m2) was 75%. After multivariate analysis, associations were observed between the age group 40-49 years old (PR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.2-3.4) and the “snacking habit” (PR = 1.9; 95% CI = 1.2-2.9). Conclusion The prevalence of BE in severe obese women was high. Association with the “snacking habit” can be a BE marker that should be monitored in the severely obese individuals that fit this profile.

Benzodiazepine use and associated factors in elderly in the city of Dourados, MS, Brazil

ABSTRACT Objective The use of benzodiazepines (BZD) and associated factors in the elderly of Dourados, MS, Brazil was investigated. Methods This is a cross-sectional population-based study using a multistage sampling design. Participants were 1,022 individuals aged ≥ 60 years. Measurements socioeconomic status, schooling, demographic aspects, marital status, physical activity, hospitalizations, self-rated health, use of alcohol beverages and smoking were assessed by standard questionnaire. The drugs used were obtained by checking the prescription or package and classified according to the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical Index. Chi-square test, Chi-square for linear tendency, Fisher's exact test and Poisson regression were used to assess association between variables. Results The prevalence of use of BZD was 6.5% (CI95%: 5.1-8.2%). The oldest group (PR: 1.60 for 70-79 years and PR: 1.79 for ≥ 80 years), non-use of alcohol (PR: 4.14) and use of antidepressants (PR: 8.73) were the statistically associated characteristics. Conclusions The prevalence of use of BZD in the study population was low, similar to findings of more recent Brazilian studies and lower than those obtained in international studies. The prevalence of use of BZD increased with aging and use of antidepressants.

Blood Pressure Control in Hypertensive Patients in the "Hiperdia Program": A Territory-Based Study

Background:Systemic hypertension is highly prevalent and an important risk factor for cardiovascular events. Blood pressure control in hypertensive patients enrolled in the Hiperdia Program, a program of the Single Health System for the follow-up and monitoring of hypertensive patients, is still far below the desired level.Objective:To describe the epidemiological profile and to assess blood pressure control of patients enrolled in Hiperdia, in the city of Novo Hamburgo (State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil).Methods:Cross-sectional study with a stratified cluster random sample, including 383 adults enrolled in the Hiperdia Program of the 15 Basic Health Units of the city of Porto Alegre, conducted between 2010 and 2011. Controlled blood pressure was defined as ≤140 mmHg × 90 mmHg. The hypertensive patients were interviewed and their blood pressure was measured using a calibrated aneroid device. Prevalence ratios (PR) with 95% confidence interval, Wald's χ2 test, and simple and multiple Poisson regression were used in the statistical analysis.Results:The mean age was 63 ± 10 years, and most of the patients were females belonging to social class C, with a low level of education, a sedentary lifestyle, and family history positive for systemic hypertension. Diabetes mellitus (DM) was observed in 31%; adherence to the antihypertensive treatment in 54.3%; and 33.7% had their blood pressure controlled. DM was strongly associated with inadequate BP control, with only 15.7% of the diabetics showing BP considered as controlled.Conclusion:Even for hypertensive patients enrolled in the Hiperdia Program, BP control is not satisfactorily reached or sustained. Diabetic hypertensive patients show the most inappropriate BP control.

Cardiovascular Research Publications from Latin America between 1999 and 2008. A Bibliometric Study

Background:Cardiovascular research publications seem to be increasing in Latin America overall.Objective:To analyze trends in cardiovascular publications and their citations from countries in Latin America between 1999 and 2008, and to compare them with those from the rest of the countries.Methods:We retrieved references of cardiovascular publications between 1999 and 2008 and their five-year post-publication citations from the Web of Knowledge database. For countries in Latin America, we calculated the total number of publications and their citation indices (total citations divided by number of publications) by year. We analyzed trends on publications and citation indices over time using Poisson regression models. The analysis was repeated for Latin America as a region, and compared with that for the rest of the countries grouped according to economic development.Results:Brazil (n = 6,132) had the highest number of publications in1999-2008, followed by Argentina (n = 1,686), Mexico (n = 1,368) and Chile (n = 874). Most countries showed an increase in publications over time, leaded by Guatemala (36.5% annually [95%CI: 16.7%-59.7%]), Colombia (22.1% [16.3%-28.2%]), Costa Rica (18.1% [8.1%-28.9%]) and Brazil (17.9% [16.9%-19.1%]). However, trends on citation indices varied widely (from -33.8% to 28.4%). From 1999 to 2008, cardiovascular publications of Latin America increased by 12.9% (12.1%-13.5%) annually. However, the citation indices of Latin America increased 1.5% (1.3%-1.7%) annually, a lower increase than those of all other country groups analyzed.Conclusions:Although the number of cardiovascular publications of Latin America increased from 1999 to 2008, trends on citation indices suggest they may have had a relatively low impact on the research field, stressing the importance of considering quality and dissemination on local research policies.

Maternal Factors and Adverse Perinatal Outcomes in Women with Preeclampsia in Maceió, Alagoas

Abstract Background: Preeclampsia has been associated with several risk factors and events. However, it still deserves further investigation, considering the multitude of related factors that affect different populations. Objective: To evaluate the maternal factors and adverse perinatal outcomes in a cohort of pregnant women with preeclampsia receiving care in the public health network of the city of Maceió. Methods: Prospective cohort study carried out in 2014 in the public health network of the city with a sample of pregnant women calculated based on a prevalence of preeclampsia of 17%, confidence level of 90%, power of 80%, and ratio of 1:1. We applied a questionnaire to collect socioeconomic, personal, and anthropometric data, and retrieved perinatal variables from medical records and certificates of live birth. The analysis was performed with Poisson regression and chi-square test considering p values < 0.05 as significant. Results: We evaluated 90 pregnant women with preeclampsia (PWP) and 90 pregnant women without preeclampsia (PWoP). A previous history of preeclampsia (prevalence ratio [PR] = 1.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.47 - 1.67, p = 0.000) and black skin color (PR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.00 - 1.33, p = 0.040) were associated with the occurrence of preeclampsia. Among the newborns of PWP and PWoP, respectively, 12.5% and 13.1% (p = 0.907) were small for gestational age and 25.0% and 23.2% (p = 0.994) were large for gestational age. There was a predominance of cesarean delivery. Conclusion: Personal history of preeclampsia and black skin color were associated with the occurrence of preeclampsia. There was a high frequency of birth weight deviations and cesarean deliveries.

Dyslipidemia is Associated with Unfit and Overweight-Obese Children and Adolescents

Abstract Background: Both poor aerobic fitness and obesity, separately, are associated with abnormal lipid profiles. Objective: To identify possible relationships of dyslipidemia with cardiorespiratory fitness and obesity, evaluated together, in children and adolescents. Methods: This cross-sectional study included 1,243 children and adolescents (563 males and 680 females) between 7 and 17 years of age from 19 schools. Obesity was assessed using body mass index (BMI) measurements, and cardiorespiratory fitness was determined via a 9-minute run/walk test. To analyze the lipid profile of each subject, the following markers were used: total cholesterol, cholesterol fractions (high-density lipoprotein and low-density lipoprotein) and triglycerides. Data were analyzed using SPSS v. 20.0, via prevalence ratio (PR), using the Poisson regression. Results: Dyslipidemia is more prevalent among unfit/overweight-obese children and adolescents compared with fit/underweight-normal weight boys (PR: 1.25; p = 0.007) and girls (PR: 1.30, p = 0.001). Conclusions: The prevalence of dyslipidemia is directly related to both obesity and lower levels of cardiorespiratory fitness.

Predictors of temporary and permanent work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results of the swiss inflammatory bowel disease cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease can decrease the quality of life and induce work disability. We sought to (1) identify and quantify the predictors of disease-specific work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and (2) assess the suitability of using cross-sectional data to predict future outcomes, using the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study data. METHODS: A total of 1187 patients were enrolled and followed up for an average of 13 months. Predictors included patient and disease characteristics and drug utilization. Potential predictors were identified through an expert panel and published literature. We estimated adjusted effect estimates with 95% confidence intervals using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson regression. RESULTS: Overall, 699 (58.9%) experienced Crohn's disease and 488 (41.1%) had ulcerative colitis. Most important predictors for temporary work disability in patients with Crohn's disease included gender, disease duration, disease activity, C-reactive protein level, smoking, depressive symptoms, fistulas, extraintestinal manifestations, and the use of immunosuppressants/steroids. Temporary work disability in patients with ulcerative colitis was associated with age, disease duration, disease activity, and the use of steroids/antibiotics. In all patients, disease activity emerged as the only predictor of permanent work disability. Comparing data at enrollment versus follow-up yielded substantial differences regarding disability and predictors, with follow-up data showing greater predictor effects. CONCLUSIONS: We identified predictors of work disability in patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Our findings can help in forecasting these disease courses and guide the choice of appropriate measures to prevent adverse outcomes. Comparing cross-sectional and longitudinal data showed that the conduction of cohort studies is inevitable for the examination of disability.

Periprocedural Hemodynamic Depression Is Associated With a Higher Number of New Ischemic Brain Lesions After Stenting in the International Carotid Stenting Study-MRI Substudy.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Carotid artery stenting (CAS) is associated with a higher risk of both hemodynamic depression and new ischemic brain lesions on diffusion-weighted imaging than carotid endarterectomy (CEA). We assessed whether the occurrence of hemodynamic depression is associated with these lesions in patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis treated by CAS or CEA in the randomized International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS)-MRI substudy. METHODS: The number and total volume of new ischemic lesions on diffusion-weighted imaging 1 to 3 days after CAS or CEA was measured in the ICSS-MRI substudy. Hemodynamic depression was defined as periprocedural bradycardia, asystole, or hypotension requiring treatment. The number of new ischemic lesions was the primary outcome measure. We calculated risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals per treatment with Poisson regression comparing the number of lesions in patients with or without hemodynamic depression. RESULTS: A total of 229 patients were included (122 allocated CAS; 107 CEA). After CAS, patients with hemodynamic depression had a mean of 13 new diffusion-weighted imaging lesions, compared with a mean of 4 in those without hemodynamic depression (risk ratio, 3.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.73-6.50). The number of lesions after CEA was too small for reliable analysis. Lesion volumes did not differ between patients with or without hemodynamic depression. CONCLUSIONS: In patients treated by CAS, periprocedural hemodynamic depression is associated with an excess of new ischemic lesions on diffusion-weighted imaging. The findings support the hypothesis that hypoperfusion increases the susceptibility of the brain to embolism. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN25337470.

Industrial Location and Space: New Insights

This paper tries to resolve some of the main shortcomings in the empirical literature of location decisions for new plants, i.e. spatial effects and overdispersion. Spatial effects are omnipresent, being a source of overdispersion in the data as well as a factor shaping the functional relationship between the variables that explain a firm’s location decisions. Using Count Data models, empirical researchers have dealt with overdispersion and excess zeros by developments of the Poisson regression model. This study aims to take this a step further, by adopting Bayesian methods and models in order to tackle the excess of zeros, spatial and non-spatial overdispersion and spatial dependence simultaneously. Data for Catalonia is used and location determinants are analysed to that end. The results show that spatial effects are determinant. Additionally, overdispersion is descomposed into an unstructured iid effect and a spatially structured effect. Keywords: Bayesian Analysis, Spatial Models, Firm Location. JEL Classification: C11, C21, R30.

Epidemiology of small intestinal atresia in Europe: a register-based study.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of congenital small intestinal atresia (SIA) has not been well studied. This study describes the presence of additional anomalies, pregnancy outcomes, total prevalence and association with maternal age in SIA cases in Europe. METHODS: Cases of SIA delivered during January 1990 to December 2006 notified to 20 EUROCAT registers formed the population-based case series. Prevalence over time was estimated using multilevel Poisson regression, and heterogeneity between registers was evaluated from the random component of the intercept. RESULTS: In total 1133 SIA cases were reported among 5126, 164 registered births. Of 1044 singleton cases, 215 (20.6%) cases were associated with a chromosomal anomaly. Of 829 singleton SIA cases with normal karyotype, 221 (26.7%) were associated with other structural anomalies. Considering cases with normal karyotype, the total prevalence per 10 000 births was 1.6 (95% CI 1.5 to 1.7) for SIA, 0.9 (95% CI 0.8 to 1.0) for duodenal atresia and 0.7 (95% CI 0.7 to 0.8) for jejunoileal atresia (JIA). There was no significant trend in SIA, duodenal atresia or JIA prevalence over time (RR=1.0, 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.0 to 1.0 for each), but SIA and duodenal atresia prevalence varied by geographical location (p=0.03 and p=0.04, respectively). There was weak evidence of an increased risk of SIA in mothers aged less than 20 years compared with mothers aged 20 to 29 years (RR=1.3, 95% CrI: 1.0 to 1.8). CONCLUSION: This study found no evidence of a temporal trend in the prevalence of SIA, duodenal atresia or JIA, although SIA and duodenal atresia prevalence varied significantly between registers.