A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

Parametric preference functionals under risk in the gain domain: a Bayesian analysis

The performance of rank dependent preference functionals under risk is comprehensively evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Model comparisons are made at three levels of heterogeneity plus three ways of linking deterministic and stochastic models: the differences in utilities, the differences in certainty equivalents and contextualutility. Overall, the"bestmodel", which is conditional on the form of heterogeneity is a form of Rank Dependent Utility or Prospect Theory that cap tures the majority of behaviour at both the representative agent and individual level. However, the curvature of the probability weighting function for many individuals is S-shaped, or ostensibly concave or convex rather than the inverse S-shape commonly employed. Also contextual utility is broadly supported across all levels of heterogeneity. Finally, the Priority Heuristic model, previously examined within a deterministic setting, is estimated within a stochastic framework, and allowing for endogenous thresholds does improve model performance although it does not compete well with the other specications considered.

Parametric analysis of discrepant sets of data

In this paper a new parametric method to deal with discrepant experimental results is developed. The method is based on the fit of a probability density function to the data. This paper also compares the characteristics of different methods used to deduce recommended values and uncertainties from a discrepant set of experimental data. The methods are applied to the (137)Cs and (90)Sr published half-lives and special emphasis is given to the deduced confidence intervals. The obtained results are analyzed considering two fundamental properties expected from an experimental result: the probability content of confidence intervals and the statistical consistency between different recommended values. The recommended values and uncertainties for the (137)Cs and (90)Sr half-lives are 10,984 (24) days and 10,523 (70) days, respectively. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Purity and entanglement of two-photon polarization states generated by spontaneous parametric down-conversion

We elucidate the dependence of purity and entanglement of two-photon states generated by spontaneous parametric down-conversion on the parameters of the source, such as crystal length, pump beam divergence, frequency bandwidth, and detectors angular aperture. The effect of crystal anisotropy is taken into account. Numerical simulations are presented for two types of commonly used source configurations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A non-parametric vessel detection method for complex vascular structures

Modern medical imaging techniques enable the acquisition of in vivo high resolution images of the vascular system. Most common methods for the detection of vessels in these images, such as multiscale Hessian-based operators and matched filters, rely on the assumption that at each voxel there is a single cylinder. Such an assumption is clearly violated at the multitude of branching points that are easily observed in all, but the Most focused vascular image studies. In this paper, we propose a novel method for detecting vessels in medical images that relaxes this single cylinder assumption. We directly exploit local neighborhood intensities and extract characteristics of the local intensity profile (in a spherical polar coordinate system) which we term as the polar neighborhood intensity profile. We present a new method to capture the common properties shared by polar neighborhood intensity profiles for all the types of vascular points belonging to the vascular system. The new method enables us to detect vessels even near complex extreme points, including branching points. Our method demonstrates improved performance over standard methods on both 2D synthetic images and 3D animal and clinical vascular images, particularly close to vessel branching regions. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: lessons from a parametric term structure model

Parametric term structure models have been successfully applied to innumerous problems in fixed income markets, including pricing, hedging, managing risk, as well as studying monetary policy implications. On their turn, dynamic term structure models, equipped with stronger economic structure, have been mainly adopted to price derivatives and explain empirical stylized facts. In this paper, we combine flavors of those two classes of models to test if no-arbitrage affects forecasting. We construct cross section (allowing arbitrages) and arbitrage-free versions of a parametric polynomial model to analyze how well they predict out-of-sample interest rates. Based on U.S. Treasury yield data, we find that no-arbitrage restrictions significantly improve forecasts. Arbitrage-free versions achieve overall smaller biases and Root Mean Square Errors for most maturities and forecasting horizons. Furthermore, a decomposition of forecasts into forward-rates and holding return premia indicates that the superior performance of no-arbitrage versions is due to a better identification of bond risk premium.

A (semi-)parametric functional coefficient autoregressive conditional duration model

In this paper, we propose a class of ACD-type models that accommodates overdispersion, intermittent dynamics, multiple regimes, and sign and size asymmetries in financial durations. In particular, our functional coefficient autoregressive conditional duration (FC-ACD) model relies on a smooth-transition autoregressive specification. The motivation lies on the fact that the latter yields a universal approximation if one lets the number of regimes grows without bound. After establishing that the sufficient conditions for strict stationarity do not exclude explosive regimes, we address model identifiability as well as the existence, consistency, and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator for the FC-ACD model with a fixed number of regimes. In addition, we also discuss how to consistently estimate using a sieve approach a semiparametric variant of the FC-ACD model that takes the number of regimes to infinity. An empirical illustration indicates that our functional coefficient model is flexible enough to model IBM price durations.

Non- parametric specification tests for conditional duration models

This paper deals with the estimation and testing of conditional duration models by looking at the density and baseline hazard rate functions. More precisely, we foeus on the distance between the parametric density (or hazard rate) function implied by the duration process and its non-parametric estimate. Asymptotic justification is derived using the functional delta method for fixed and gamma kernels, whereas finite sample properties are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we show the practical usefulness of such testing procedures by carrying out an empirical assessment of whether autoregressive conditional duration models are appropriate to oIs for modelling price durations of stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange.

Regulation and wage adjustment patterns : non parametric evidence from longitudinal data

This paper gives a first step toward a methodology to quantify the influences of regulation on short-run earnings dynamics. It also provides evidence on the patterns of wage adjustment adopted during the recent high inflationary experience in Brazil.The large variety of official wage indexation rules adopted in Brazil during the recent years combined with the availability of monthly surveys on labor markets makes the Brazilian case a good laboratory to test how regulation affects earnings dynamics. In particular, the combination of large sample sizes with the possibility of following the same worker through short periods of time allows to estimate the cross-sectional distribution of longitudinal statistics based on observed earnings (e.g., monthly and annual rates of change).The empirical strategy adopted here is to compare the distributions of longitudinal statistics extracted from actual earnings data with simulations generated from minimum adjustment requirements imposed by the Brazilian Wage Law. The analysis provides statistics on how binding were wage regulation schemes. The visual analysis of the distribution of wage adjustments proves useful to highlight stylized facts that may guide future empirical work.

Improved combinations of parametric and nonparametric Regression estimators

This paper provides a systematic and unified treatment of the developments in the area of kernel estimation in econometrics and statistics. Both the estimation and hypothesis testing issues are discussed for the nonparametric and semiparametric regression models. A discussion on the choice of windowwidth is also presented.

Assessment of the ergonomic design of diagnostic ultrasound transducers through wrist movements and subjective evaluation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efficacy of linear and convex transducers for ultrasound-guided transvaginal follicle aspiration

A new device was developed to hold linear transducers for transvaginal follicle aspiration. Efficacy of follicle aspiration was compared using a linear 6 MHz and a convex 5 MHz transducer. Fifty-five cows were submitted to follicle aspiration at random days of the estrous cycle. Aspirations were conducted with linear (n = 28) and convex (n = 38) transducers with 18 G needles at a negative pressure corresponding to 13 ml H2O/min. A greater number of follicles were aspirated using convex than to linear probe (12.4 versus 7.8, respectively, P < 0.05). Mean number of oocytes and recovery rates were similar for convex (5.4 and 48.6%) and linear (4.6 and 59.3%) transducers. Limited space between the linear transducer and needle guide restricted access to some portions of the ovary, reducing the number of follicles aspirated using a linear transducer. The newly developed adaptor allowed greater stability, holding the ovaries firmly against the linear transducer. This diminished mobility permitted a similar number of oocytes to be recovered with both transducers. In conclusion, this new adaptor provided a low cost alternative for routine follicle aspiration and oocyte recovery in cattle. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Layer-by-Layer Technique as a New Approach to Produce Nanostructured Films Containing Phospholipids as Transducers in Sensing Applications

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The presence of fungi on contact electrical stimulation electrodes and ultrasound transducers in physiotherapy clinics

Objectives To evaluate the presence of fungi on contact electrodes and ultrasound transducers from physiotherapy clinics.Design Quantitative study conducted at the Laboratory of Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Health Sciences and Technology of Piaui - NOVAFAPI, Teresina, Brazil.Setting Sample collection was performed in 10 clinics ( 20 ultrasound transducers and 20 contact electrodes).Main outcome measures Swabs were soaked with saline solution, inoculated in culture and incubated for filamentous fungi and yeast growth.Results Fourteen taxons were identified: Acremomium hyalinulum (Sacc.), Aspergillus terreus, Candida albicans, Cladosporium cladosporioides, Cladosporium elatum, Cladosporium oxysporum, Cladosporium sphaerospermum, Cladosphialophora bantiana, Curvularia clavata, Curvularia senegalensis, Fusarium oxysporum, Penicillium decumbens, Scopulariopsis candida and Sporothrix schenckii. Aspergillus terreus, Cladosporium oxysporum, Sporothrix shenckii and Candida albicans were found most often on contact electrodes, and Penicillium decumbens and Cladosporium cladosporioides were found most often on ultrasound transducers.Conclusion Fungi were found on all of the contact electrodes and ultrasound transducers. Physiotherapy professionals need to improve the disinfection procedures for this equipment. (C) 2010 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.