Cost-effectiveness analysis of a hypothetical hepatitis C vaccine compared to antiviral therapy

We propose a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. We assumed that a hypothetical vaccine, which cost was taken to be the initial cost of the vaccine against hepatitis B exists and it is introduced in the model. We computed its cost-effectiveness compared with the anti-HCV therapy. The calculated basic reproduction number was 1.20. The model predicts that without intervention a steady state exists with an HCV prevalence of 3%, in agreement with the Current epidemiological data. Starting from this steady state three interventions were simulated: indiscriminate vaccination, selective vaccination and anti-HCV therapy. Selective vaccination proved to be the strategy with the best cost-effectiveness ratio, followed by indiscriminate vaccination and anti-HCV therapy.

Consistency of FDG-PET Accuracy and Cost-Effectiveness in Initial Staging of Patients With Hodgkin Lymphoma Across Jurisdictions

Introduction: Two hundred ten patients with newly diagnosed Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) were consecutively enrolled in this prospective trial to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of fluorine-18 ((18)F)-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) scan in initial staging of patients with HL. Methods: All 210 patients were staged with conventional clinical staging (CCS) methods, including computed tomography (CT), bone marrow biopsy (BMB), and laboratory tests. Patients were also submitted to metabolic staging (MS) with whole-body FDG-PET scan before the beginning of treatment. A standard of reference for staging was determined with all staging procedures, histologic examination, and follow-up examinations. The accuracy of the CCS was compared with the MS. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for both strategies. Results: In the 210 patients with HL, the sensitivity for initial staging of FDG-PET was higher than that of CT and BMB in initial staging (97.9% vs. 87.3%; P < .001 and 94.2% vs. 71.4%, P < 0.003, respectively). The incorporation of FDG-PET in the staging procedure upstaged disease in 50 (24%) patients and downstaged disease in 17 (8%) patients. Changes in treatment would be seen in 32 (15%) patients. Cumulative cost for staging procedures was $3751/patient for CCS compared to $5081 for CCS + PET and $4588 for PET/CT. The ICER of PET/CT strategy was $16,215 per patient with modified treatment. PET/CT costs at the beginning and end of treatment would increase total costs of HL staging and first-line treatment by only 2%. Conclusion: FDG-PET is more accurate than CT and BMB in HL staging. Given observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost-effective in the public health care program in Brazil.

Cost Effectiveness of Positron Emission Tomography in Patients With Hodgkin`s Lymphoma in Unconfirmed Complete Remission or Partial Remission After First-Line Therapy

Purpose To assess the cost effectiveness of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in patients with Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) with unconfirmed complete remission (CRu) or partial remission (PR) after first-line treatment. Patients and Methods One hundred thirty patients with HL were prospectively studied. After treatment, all patients with CRu/PR were evaluated with FDG-PET. In addition, PET-negative patients were evaluated with standard follow-up, and PET-positive patients were evaluated with biopsies of the positive lesions. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Cost effectiveness was determined by evaluating projected annual economic impact of strategies without and with FDG-PET on HL management. Results After treatment, CRu/PR was observed in 50 (40.0%) of the 127 patients; the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of FDG-PET were 100%, 92.0%, 92.3%, and 100%, respectively (accuracy of 95.9%). Local restaging costs without PET were $350,050 compared with $283,262 with PET, a 19% decrease. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is -$3,268 to detect one true case. PET costs represented 1% of total costs of HL treatment. Simulated costs in the 974 patients registered in the 2008 Brazilian public health care database showed that the strategy including restaging PET would have a total program cost of $56,498,314, which is $516,942 less than without restaging PET, resulting in a 1% cost saving. Conclusion FDG-PET demonstrated 95.9% accuracy in restaging for patients with HL with CRu/PR after first-line therapy. Given the observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost effective and would reduce costs for the public health care program in Brazil.

Fluid Replacement With Hypertonic or Isotonic Solutions Guided by Mixed Venous Oxygen Saturation in Experimental Hypodynamic Sepsis

Background: Splanchnic perfusion is prone to early injury and persists despite normalization of global hemodynamic variables in sepsis. Volume replacement guided by oxygen derived variables has been recommended in the management of septic patients. Our hypothesis was that a hypertonic isoneotic solution Would improve the benefits of crystalloids replacement guided by mixed venous oxygen saturation. Methods: Seventeen anesthetized and mechanically ventilated mongrel dogs received an intravenous infusion of live E. coli in 30 minutes. They were then randomized into three groups: control group (n = 3) bacterial infusion without treatment; normal saline (n = 7), initial fluid replacement with 32 mL/kg of normal saline during 20 minutes; hypertonic solution (n = 7), initial fluid replacement with 4 mL/kg of hypertonic solution during 5 minutes. After 30 and 60 Minutes, additional boluses of normal saline were administered when mixed venous oxygen saturation remained below 70%. Mean arterial pressure, cardiac output; regional blood flows, systemic and regional oxygen-derived variables, and lactate levels were assessed. Animals were observed for 90 minutes and then killed. Hystopathological analysis including apoptosis detection using terminal deoxynucleotidil transferase mediated dUTP-biotin nick end labeling was performed. Results: A hypodynamic septic shock was observed after bacterial infusion. Both the fluid-treated groups presented similar transient benefits in systemic and regional variables. A greater degree of gut epithelial cells apoptosis was observed in normal saline-treated animals. Conclusions: Although normalization of mixed venous oxygen saturation was not associated with restoration of markers of splanchnic or other systemic perfusion variables, the initial fluid savings with hypertonic saline and its latter effect on gut apoptosis may be of interest in sepsis management.

Treatment of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome in patients from a teaching hospital in Brazil: is it possible?

The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of a cost-effective intra-oral appliance for obstructive sleep apnea syndrome built into a large teaching hospital. Out of 20 evaluated and treated patients, 14 concluded the study: eight men and six women, with a mean age of 42-46 (mean + SD) years and mean body mass index of 27.66. Inclusion criteria were mild or moderate apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) according to a polysomnographic study. All patients were treated with the monobloco intra-oral appliance. They were then submitted to a follow-up polysomnographic study after 60 days using the appliance. An orofacial clinical evaluation was carried out with the Research Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders (RDC/TMD) questionnaire and with clinical evaluation questionnaire devised by the Orofacial Pain Team before and 60 days after fitting the intra-oral appliance. The AHI showed a statistically meaningful (p = 0.002) reduction from 15.53 to 7.82 events per hour, a non-statistically significant oxygen saturation increase from 83.36 to 84.86 (p = 0.09), and Epworth`s sleepiness scale reduction from 9.14 to 6.36 (p = 0.001). Three patients did not show any improvement. The most common side effect during the use of the appliance/device was pain and facial discomfort (28.57%), without myofascial or temporomandibular joint pain as evaluated by the RDC/TMD questionnaire. The intra-oral device produced a significant reduction of the apnea-hypopnea index during the study period with the use of the monobloco intra-oral appliance. Patients did not show prior myofascial pain or 60 days after use of the intra-oral appliance.

Initial hepatosplanchnic blood flow distribution and oxygen metabolism in experimental model of hypotensive brain death

Background: Organs from the so-called marginal donors have been used with a significant higher risk of primary non function than organs retrieved from the optimal donors. We investigated the early metabolic changes and blood flow redistribution in splanchnic territory in an experimental model that mimics marginal brain-dead (BD) donor. Material/Methods: Ten dogs (21.3 +/- 0.9 kg), were subjected to a brain death protocol induced by subdural balloon inflation and observed for 30 min thereafter without ally additional interventions. Mean arterial and intracranial pressures, heart rate, cardiac output (CO), portal vein and hepatic artery blood flows (PVBF and HABF, ultrasonic flowprobe), and O(2)-derived variables were evaluated. Results: An increase in arterial pressure, CO, PVBF and HABF was observed after BD induction. At the end, an intense hypotension with normalization in CO (3.0 +/- 0.2 VS. 2.8 +/- 2.8 L/min) and PVBF (687 +/- 114 vs. 623 +/- 130 ml/min) was observed, whereas HABF (277 33 vs. 134 28 ml/min, p<0.005) remained lower than baseline values. Conclusions: Despite severe hypotension induced by sudden increase of intracranial pressure, the systemic and splanchnic blood flows were partially preserved without signs of severe hypoperfusion (i.e. hyperlactatemia). Additionally, the HABF was mostly negatively affected in this model of marginal BD donor. Our data suggest that not only the cardiac output, but the intrinsic hepatic microcirculatory mechanism plays a role in the hepatic blood flow control after BD.

Cost-Effectiveness of Palliation of Unresectable Esophageal Cancer

Introduction Different modalities of palliation for obstructive symptoms in patients with unresectable esophageal cancer (EC) exist. However, these therapeutic alternatives have significant differences in costs and effectiveness. Methods A Markov model was designed to compare the cost-effectiveness (CE) of self-expandable stent (SES), brachytherapy and laser in the palliation of unresectable EC. Patients were assigned to one of the strategies, and the improvement in swallowing function was compared given the treatment efficacy, probability of survival, and risks of complications associated to each strategy. Probabilities and parameters for distribution were based on a 9-month time frame. Results Under the base-case scenario, laser has the lowest CE ratio, followed by brachytherapy at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,400.00, and SES is a dominated strategy. In the probabilistic analysis, laser is the strategy with the highest probability of cost-effectiveness for willingness to pay (WTP) values lower than $3,201 and brachytherapy for all WTP yielding a positive net health benefit (NHB) (threshold $4,440). The highest probability of cost-effectiveness for brachytherapy is 96%, and consequently, selection of suboptimal strategies can lead to opportunity losses for the US health system, ranging from US$ 4.32 to US$ 38.09 million dollars over the next 5-20 years. Conclusion Conditional to the WTP and current US Medicare costs, palliation of unresectable esophageal cancers with brachytherapy provides the largest amount of NHB and is the strategy with the highest probability of CE. However, some level of uncertainly remains, and wrong decisions will be made until further knowledge is acquired.

ACCM/PALS haemodynamic support guidelines for paediatric septic shock: an outcomes comparison with and without monitoring central venous oxygen saturation

Introduction: The ACCM/PALS guidelines address early correction of paediatric septic shock using conventional measures. In the evolution of these recommendations, indirect measures of the balance between systemic oxygen delivery and demands using central venous or superior vena cava oxygen saturation ( ScvO(2) >= 70%) in a goal-directed approach have been added. However, while these additional goal-directed endpoints are based on evidence-based adult studies, the extrapolation to the paediatric patient remains unvalidated. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare treatment according to ACCM/PALS guidelines, performed with and without ScvO(2) goal-directed therapy, on the morbidity and mortality rate of children with severe sepsis and septic shock. Design, participants and interventions: Children and adolescents with severe sepsis or fluid-refractory septic shock were randomly assigned to ACCM/PALS with or without ScvO(2) goal-directed resuscitation. Measurements: Twenty-eight-day mortality was the primary endpoint. Results: Of the 102 enrolled patients, 51 received ACCM/PALS with ScvO(2) goal-directed therapy and 51 received ACCM/PALS without ScvO(2) goal-directed therapy. ScvO(2) goal-directed therapy resulted in less mortality ( 28-day mortality 11.8% vs. 39.2%, p = 0.002), and fewer new organ dysfunctions ( p = 0.03). ScvO(2) goal-directed therapy resulted in more crystalloid ( 28 ( 20-40) vs. 5 ( 0-20) ml/kg, p < 0.0001), blood transfusion ( 45.1% vs. 15.7%, p = 0.002) and inotropic ( 29.4% vs. 7.8%, p = 0.01) support in the first 6 h. Conclusions: This study supports the current ACCM/PALS guidelines. Goal-directed therapy using the endpoint of a ScvO(2) = 70% has a significant and additive impact on the outcome of children and adolescents with septic shock.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of routine rotavirus vaccination in Brazil

Objective. The objective of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal rotavirus vaccination program among children : 5 years of age in Brazil. Methods. Considering a hypothetical annual cohort of approximately 3 300 000 newborns followed over 5 years, a decision-tree model was constructed to examine the possible clinical and economic effects of rotavirus infection with and without routine vaccination of children. Probabilities and unit costs were derived from published research and national administrative data. The impact of different estimates for key parameters was studied using sensitivity analysis. The analysis was conducted from both healthcare system and societal perspectives. Results. The vaccination program was estimated to prevent approximately 1735 351 (54%) of the 3 210 361 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis and 703 (75%) of 933 rotavirus-associated deaths during the 5-year period. At a vaccine price of 18.6 Brazilian reais (R$) per dose, this program would cost R$121 673 966 and would save R$38 536 514 in direct costs to the public healthcare system and R$71 778 377 in direct and indirect costs to society. The program was estimated to cost R$1 028 and R$1 713 per life-years saved (LYS)from the societal and healthcare system perspectives, respectively. Conclusions. Universal rotavirus vaccination was a cost-effective strategy for both perspectives. However, these findings are highly sensitive to diarrhea incidence rate, proportion of severe cases, vaccine coverage, and vaccine price.

Age-related increase of reactive oxygen species in neat semen in healthy fertile men

OBJECTIVES The effects of advancing paternal age on the male reproductive system are well known, but its effects on fecundity remain controversial. Although oxidative stress is associated with poor semen quality and function, a relationship with advancing male age has not been established. The objective of this study was to analyze the relationship between male age and seminal reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels in men presenting for voluntary sterilization. METHODS We prospectively evaluated 98 fertile men who were candidates for vasectomy. These were divided into 2 age groups: less than 40 years (n = 78) and 40 or more years (n = 20). We used 46 infertile patients as positive controls. Standard semen analysis, seminal leukocyte count and ROS levels were measured in all samples. Fertile men with leukocytospermia were excluded. RESULTS The mean age of the men was 35.1 +/- 5.6 years. Men 40 years and older had significantly higher ROS levels compared with younger men (P < 0.001). We observed a positive correlation between seminal ROS levels and age (r = 0.20; P = 0.040). In addition, ROS was negatively correlated with sperm concentration (r = -0-48; P < 0.001) and motility (r = -0.21; P = 0.030). CONCLUSIONS Reactive oxygen species levels are significant higher in seminal ejaculates of healthy fertile men older than 40 years. ROS levels in whole ejaculate are significantly correlated to age among fertile men. Because ROS are clearly implicated in the pathogenesis of male infertility, these data suggest that delayed fatherhood may reduce the chances of pregnancy as men become progressively less fertile with age.

Comparison of Full Versus Short Induced-Sleep Polysomnography for the Diagnosis of Sleep Apnea

Objectives/Hypothesis: Polysomnography (PSG) is the gold-standard method for diagnosing obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). However, the gap between demand and capacity in performing PSG is a major health-care problem. We sought to validate a short day-time induced sleep for the diagnosis of OSA. Study Design: Prospective diagnostic method validation. Methods: We studied 25 consecutive patients referred to the sleep laboratory and 15 healthy volunteers. All subjects were evaluated by means of full overnight PSG (Full-PSG) and short day-time induced-sleep PSG (Induced-PSG). Sleep was monitored during both procedures (Embla, 16 channels). Sleep was induced by slow intravenous drip infusion of midazolam. Results: The population studied (N = 40) was 60% male (mean age, 42 +/- 10 years; body mass index, 29 +/- 6.5 kg/m(2)). Sleep was successfully induced in all subjects, and no complications were observed (midazolam doses, 6.2 +/- 3.8 mg; time of induced sleep 41.5 +/- 18.9 minutes). The apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and minimal oxygen saturation during Full-PSG versus Induced-PSG were similar: median AHI (with 25%-75% interquartile range) was 13 (3-35) events per hour versus 17 (4-36) events per hour, and median oxygen saturation was 84% (75-90) versus 85% (76-92); P = .89 and P = .53, respectively. The majority of the respiratory events during induced sleep were obstructive and similar to those observed during Full-PSG. AHI and lowest oxygen saturation during Induced-PSG correlated significantly with Full-PSG (r = 0.67 and r = 0.77, respectively). Sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of OSA (AHI > 15 events per hour) by Induced-PSG were 0.83 and 0.72, respectively. Conclusions: Induced-PSG by midazolam during the day is safe and correlates with Full-PSG; it therefore is a promising alternative method in the diagnosis of OSA.

Adjuncts to Physical Training of Patients With Severe COPD: Oxygen or Noninvasive Ventilation?

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown positive effects from noninvasive ventilation (NIV) or supplemental oxygen on exercise capacity in patients with COPD. However, the best adjunct for promoting physiologic adaptations to physical training in patients with severe COPD remains to be investigated. METHODS: Twenty-eight patients (mean +/- SD age 68 +/- 7 y) with stable COPD (FEV(1) 34 +/- 9% of predicted) undergoing an exercise training program were randomized to either NIV (n = 14) or supplemental oxygen (n = 14) during group training to maintain peripheral oxygen saturation (S(pO2)) >= 90%. Physical training consisted of treadmill walking (at 70% of maximal speed) 3 times a week, for 6 weeks. Patients were assessed at baseline and after 6 weeks. Assessments included physiological adaptations during incremental exercise testing (ratio of lactate concentration to walk speed, oxygen uptake [(V) over dot(O2)], and dyspnea), exercise tolerance during 6-min walk test, leg fatigue, maximum inspiratory pressure, and health-related quality of life. RESULTS: Two patients in each group dropped out due to COPD exacerbations and lack of exercise program adherence, and 24 completed the training program. Both groups improved 6-min walk distance, symptoms, and health-related quality of life. However, there were significant differences between the NIV and supplemental-oxygen groups in lactate/speed ratio (33% vs -4%), maximum inspiratory pressure (80% vs 23%), 6-min walk distance (122 m vs 47 m), and leg fatigue (25% vs 11%). In addition, changes in S(pO2)/speed, (V) over dot(O2), and dyspnea were greater with NIV than with supplemental-oxygen. CONCLUSIONS: NIV alone is better than supplemental oxygen alone in promoting beneficial physiologic adaptations to physical exercise in patients with severe COPD.

Right adolescent idiopathic thoracic curve (Lenke 1 A and B): does cost of instrumentation and implant density improve radiographic and cosmetic parameters?

In adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) there has been a shift towards increasing the number of implants and pedicle screws, which has not been proven to improve cosmetic correction. To evaluate if increasing cost of instrumentation correlates with cosmetic correction using clinical photographs. 58 Lenke 1A and B cases from a multicenter AIS database with at least 3 months follow-up of clinical photographs were used for analysis. Cosmetic parameters on PA and forward bending photographs included angular measurements of trunk shift, shoulder balance, rib hump, and ratio measurements of waist line asymmetry. Pre-op and follow-up X-rays were measured for coronal and sagittal deformity parameters. Cost density was calculated by dividing the total cost of instrumentation by the number of vertebrae being fused. Linear regression and spearman`s correlation were used to correlate cost density to X-ray and photo outcomes. Three independent observers verified radiographic and cosmetic parameters for inter/interobserver variability analysis. Average pre-op Cobb angle and instrumented correction were 54A degrees (SD 12.5) and 59% (SD 25) respectively. The average number of vertebrae fused was 10 (SD 1.9). The total cost of spinal instrumentation ranged from $6,769 to $21,274 (Mean $12,662, SD $3,858). There was a weak positive and statistically significant correlation between Cobb angle correction and cost density (r = 0.33, p = 0.01), and no correlation between Cobb angle correction of the uninstrumented lumbar spine and cost density (r = 0.15, p = 0.26). There was no significant correlation between all sagittal X-ray measurements or any of the photo parameters and cost density. There was good to excellent inter/intraobserver variability of all photographic parameters based on the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC 0.74-0.98). Our method used to measure cosmesis had good to excellent inter/intraobserver variability, and may be an effective tool to objectively assess cosmesis from photographs. Since increasing cost density only improves mildly the Cobb angle correction of the main thoracic curve and not the correction of the uninstrumented spine or any of the cosmetic parameters, one should consider the cost of increasing implant density in Lenke 1A and B curves. In the area of rationalization of health care expenses, this study demonstrates that increasing the number of implants does not improve any relevant cosmetic or radiographic outcomes.