High-resolution sedimentological and paleontological record of ODP Site 167-1019

Holocene and latest Pleistocene oceanographic conditions and the coastal climate of northern California have varied greatly, based upon high-resolution studies (ca. every 100 years) of diatoms, alkenones, pollen, CaCO3%, and total organic carbon at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1019 (41.682°N, 124.930°W, 980 m water depth). Marine climate proxies (alkenone sea surface temperatures [SSTs] and CaCO3%) behaved remarkably like the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP)-2 oxygen isotope record during the Bølling-Allerod, Younger Dryas (YD), and early part of the Holocene. During the YD, alkenone SSTs decreased by >3°C below mean Bølling-Allerod and Holocene SSTs. The early Holocene (ca. 11.6 to 8.2 ka) was a time of generally warm conditions and moderate CaCO3 content (generally >4%). The middle part of the Holocene (ca. 8.2 to 3.2 ka) was marked by alkenone SSTs that were consistently 1-2°C cooler than either the earlier or later parts of the Holocene, by greatly reduced numbers of the gyre-diatom Pseudoeunotia doliolus (<10%), and by a permanent drop in CaCO3% to <3%. Starting at ca. 5.2 ka, coastal redwood and alder began a steady rise, arguing for increasing effective moisture and the development of the north coast temperate rain forest. At ca. 3.2 ka, a permanent ca. 1°C increase in alkenone SST and a threefold increase in P. doliolus signaled a warming of fall and winter SSTs. Intensified (higher amplitude and more frequent) cycles of pine pollen alternating with increased alder and redwood pollen are evidence that rapid changes in effective moisture and seasonal temperature (enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation [ENSO] cycles) have characterized the Site 1019 record since about 3.5 ka.

Epibiosis between the sand crab Emerita analoga and the mussel Semimytilus algosus

Coastal zones of the Humboldt Current Upwelling System (HCUS) are composed both of rocky and sandy beaches inhabited by macrozoobenthic communities. These show oscillating changes in the dominance of species; the abundance of the sand crab Emerita analoga is linked to phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The biogenic surfaces of these crabs serve as substrate for opportunistic colonizers. This study is the first record of an epibiosis between E. analoga and the rock mussel Semimytilus algosus, detected at a southern Peruvian sandy beach. Mussels fouled a wide size-range of adult E. analoga (7.3%) but they themselves belonged to small-size classes. The largest S. algosus was 17.4 mm in length. Highest permanence of epibionts was found on larger sand crabs (maximum between 24 and 27 mm). Significantly more mussels were found on the ventral surface (39.4%) compared to 10 other surface areas of the sand crab. Possible benefits and disadvantages of the observed epibiosis for both the basibiont and the epibiont are discussed.

Holocene corals from the South China Sea

The South China Sea (SCS) is well connected with the western Pacific and influenced by the East Asian monsoon. We have examined temporal variations in radiocarbon marine reservoir ages (R) and regional marine reservoir corrections (DeltaR) of the SCS during the Holocene using paired measurements of AMS 14C and TIMS 230Th on 20 pristine corals. The results show large fluctuations in both R and DeltaR values over the past 7500 years (yrs) with two distinct plateaus during 7.5-5.6 and 3.5-2.5 thousand calendar years before present (cal ka BP). The respective weighted mean DeltaR values of these plateaus are 151 ± 85 and 89 ± 59 yrs, which are significantly higher than its modern value of -23 ± 52 yrs. This suggests that using a constant modern DeltaR value to calibrate 14C dates of the SCS marine samples will introduce additional errors to the calibrated ages. Our results provide the first database for the Holocene R and DeltaR values of the SCS for improved radiocarbon calibration of marine samples. We interpret the two DeltaR plateaus as being related to two intervals with weakened El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and intensified East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). This is because the 14C content of the SCS surface water is controlled by both the 14C concentration of the Pacific North Equatorial Current (NEC) which is in turn influenced by ENSO-induced upwelling along the Pacific equator and vertical upwelling within the SCS as a result of moisture transportation to midlatitude region to supply the EASM rainfall.

Faunal analysis and Mg/Ca records of planktic foraminifera in sediment core SO189/2_039KL

Climate phenomena like the monsoon system, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are interconnected via various feedback mechanisms and control the climate of the Indian Ocean and its surrounding continents on various timescales. The eastern tropical Indian Ocean is a key area for the interplay of these phenomena and for reconstructing their past changes and forcing mechanisms. Here we present records of upper ocean thermal gradient, thermocline temperatures (TT) and relative abundances of planktic foraminifera in core SO 189-39KL taken off western Sumatra (0°47.400' S, 99°54.510' E) for the last 8 ka that we use as proxies for changes in upper ocean structure. The records suggest a deeper thermocline between 8 ka and ca 3 ka compared to the late Holocene. We find a shoaling of the thermocline after 3 ka, most likely indicating an increased occurrence of upwelling during the late Holocene compared to the mid-Holocene which might represent changes in the IOD-like mean state of the Indian Ocean with a more negative IOD-like mean state during the mid-Holocene and a more positive IOD-like mean state during the past 3 ka. This interpretation is supported by a transient Holocene climate model simulation in which an IOD-like mode is identified that involves an insolation-forced long-term trend of increasing anomalous surface easterlies over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean.

Daily mean surface meteorology and river discharge in Central Sulawesi for the period 2002-2005

The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest known natural interannual climate fluctuation. The most recent two extreme ENSO events of 1982/83 and 1997/98 severley hit the socio-economy of main parts of Indonesia. As the climate variability is not homogeneous over the whole Archipelago of Indonesia, ENSO events cause negative precipitation anomalies of diverse magnitude and uration in different regions. Understanding the hydrology of humid tropical catchments is an essential prerequisite to investigate the impact of climate variability on the catchment hydrology. Together with the quantitative assessment of future water resource changes they are essential tools to develop mitigation strategies on a catchment scale. These results can be integrated into long term Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) strategies. The general objective of this study is to investigate and quantify the impact of ENSO caused climate variability on the water balance and the implications for water resources of a mesoscale tropical catchment.

Model parameter

Interannual environmental variability in Peru is dominated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The most dramatic changes are associated with the warm El Niño (EN) phase (opposite the cold La Niña phase), which disrupts the normal coastal upwelling and affects the dynamics of many coastal marine and terrestrial resources. This study presents a trophic model for Sechura Bay, located at the northern extension of the Peruvian upwelling system, where ENSO-induced environmental variability is most extreme. Using an initial steady-state model for the year 1996, we explore the dynamics of the ecosystem through the year 2003 (including the strong EN of 1997/98 and the weaker EN of 2002/03). Based on support from literature, we force biomass of several non-trophically-mediated 'drivers' (e.g. Scallops, Benthic detritivores, Octopus, and Littoral fish) to observe whether the fit between historical and simulated changes (by the trophic model) is improved. The results indicate that the Sechura Bay Ecosystem is a relatively inefficient system from a community energetics point of view, likely due to the periodic perturbations of ENSO. A combination of high system productivity and low trophic level target species of invertebrates (i.e. scallops) and fish (i.e. anchoveta) results in high catches and an efficient fishery. The importance of environmental drivers is suggested, given the relatively small improvements in the fit of the simulation with the addition of trophic drivers on remaining functional groups' dynamics. An additional multivariate regression model is presented for the scallop Argopecten purpuratus, which demonstrates a significant correlation between both spawning stock size and riverine discharge-mediated mortality on catch levels. These results are discussed in the context of the appropriateness of trophodynamic modeling in relatively open systems, and how management strategies may be focused given the highly environmentally influenced marine resources of the region.

Investigations on fossil bivalves and wood from Seymour Island, Antarctica

Quasi-periodic variation in sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and sea-level pressure in the equatorial Pacific known as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of interannual variability in global climate. A collapse of the tropical Pacific onto a state resembling a so-called 'permanent El Niño', with a preferentially warmed eastern equatorial Pacific, flatter thermocline, and reduced interannual variability, in a warmer world is predicted by prevailing ENSO theory. If correct, future warming will be accompanied by a shift toward persistent conditions resembling El Niño years today, with major implications for global hydrological cycles and consequent impacts on socioeconomic and ecological systems. However, much uncertainty remains about how interannual variability will be affected. Here, we present multi-annual records of climate derived from growth increment widths in fossil bivalves and co-occurring driftwood from the Antarctic peninsula that demonstrate significant variability in the quasi-biennial and 3-6 year bands consistent with ENSO, despite early Eocene (~50 Mya) greenhouse conditions with global average temperature -10 degrees higher than today. A coupled climate model suggests an ENSO signal and teleconnections to this region during the Eocene, much like today. The presence of ENSO variation during this markedly warmer interval argues for the persistence of robust interannual variability in our future greenhouse world.

A high-resolution multiproxy study of sediment core GeoB7186-3 from SE Pacific off southern South America

A high-resolution multiproxy study performed on a marine record from SE Pacific off southern South America was used to reconstruct past regional environmental changes and their relation to global climate, particularly to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon during the last 2200 years. Our results suggest a sustained northward shift in the position of the zonal systems, i.e. the Southern Westerly Wind belt and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which occurred between 1300 and 750 yr BP. The synchrony of the latitudinal shift with cooling in Antarctica and reduced ENSO activity observed in several marine and terrestrial archives across South America suggests a causal link between ENSO and the proposed displacement of the zonal systems. This shift might have acted as a positive feedback to more La Niña-like conditions between 1300 and 750 yr BP by steepening the hemispheric and tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient. This scenario further suggests different boundary conditions for ENSO before 1300 and after 750 yr BP.

Uranium-Thorium dating and sea surface temperatures from corals from Hainan Island, South China Sea

Three mid-Holocene sea surface temperature (SST) records spanning more than 30 years were reconstructed for the northern South China Sea using Sr/Ca ratios in Porites corals. The results indicate warmer than present climates between circa 6100 yr B.P. and circa 6500 yr B.P. with the mid-Holocene average minimum monthly winter SSTs, the average maximum monthly summer SSTs, and the average annual SSTs being about 0.5°-1.4°C, 0°-2.0°C, and 0.2°-1.5°C higher, respectively, than they were during 1970-1994. Summer SSTs decrease from circa 6500 yr B.P. to circa 6100 yr B.P. with a minimum centered at circa 6300 yr B.P. The higher average summer SSTs are consistent with a stronger summer monsoon during the mid-Holocene, and the decreasing trend indicates a secular decrease of summer monsoon strength, which reflects the change in summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles were apparent in both the mid-Holocene coral and modern instrumental records. However, the ENSO variability in the mid-Holocene SSTs was weaker than that in the modern record, and the SST record with the highest summer temperatures from circa 6460 yr B.P. to 6496 yr B.P. shows no robust ENSO cycle. This agrees with other studies that indicate that stronger summer monsoon circulation may have been associated with suppressed ENSO variability during the mid-Holocene.

(Table S1) Age determination of ODP Site 202-1240

Interannual-decadal variability in the equatorial Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induces climate changes at global scale, but its potential influence during past global climate change is not yet well constrained. New high-resolution eastern equatorial Pacific proxy records of thermocline conditions present new evidence of strong orbital control in ENSO-like variability over the last 275,000 years. Recurrent intervals of saltier thermocline waters are associated with the dominance of La Niña-like conditions during glacial terminations, coinciding with periods of low precession and high obliquity. The parallel dominance of d13C-depleted waters supports the advection of Antarctic origin waters toward the tropical thermocline. This "oceanic tunneling" is proposed to have reinforced orbitally induced changes in ENSO-like variability, composing a complex high- and low-latitude feedback during glacial terminations.

Geochemistry of corals: Proxies of past ocean chemistry, ocean circulation, and climate

This paper presents a discussion of the status of the field of coral geochemistry as it relates to the recovery of past records of ocean chemistry, ocean circulation, and climate. The first part is a brief review of coral biology, density banding, and other important factors involved in understanding corals as proxies of environmental variables. The second part is a synthesis of the information available to date on extracting records of the carbon cycle and climate change. It is clear from these proxy records that decade time-scale variability of mixing processes in the oceans is a dominant signal. That Western and Eastern tropical Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) records differ is an important piece of the puzzle for understanding regional and global climate change. Input of anthropogenic CO2 to the oceans as observed by 13C and 14C isotopes in corals is partially obscured by natural variability. Nonetheless, the general trend over time toward lower δ18O values at numerous sites in the world’s tropical oceans suggests a gradual warming and/or freshening of the surface ocean over the past century.

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (high-top') and models that do not (low-top'). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (December-March) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) and how they relate to predictive skill on intraseasonal to seasonal time-scales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

Australian water mass variations from GRACE data linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability

Time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used to study total water content over Australia for the period 2002–2010. A time-varying annual signal explains 61% of the variance of the data, in good agreement with two independent estimates of the same quantity from hydrological models. Water mass content variations across Australia are linked to Pacific and Indian Ocean variability, associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), respectively. From 1989, positive (negative) IOD phases were related to anomalously low (high) precipitation in southeastern Australia, associated with a reduced (enhanced) tropical moisture flux. In particular, the sustained water mass content reduction over central and southern regions of Australia during the period 2006–2008 is associated with three consecutive positive IOD events.