Change escalation processes and complex adaptive systems: from incremental reconfigurations to discontinuous restructuring

This study examines when “incremental” change is likely to trigger “discontinuous” change, using the lens of complex adaptive systems theory. Going beyond the simulations and case studies through which complex adaptive systems have been approached so far, we study the relationship between incremental organizational reconfigurations and discontinuous organizational restructurings using a large-scale database of U.S. Fortune 50 industrial corporations. We develop two types of escalation process in organizations: accumulation and perturbation. Under ordinary conditions, it is perturbation rather than the accumulation that is more likely to trigger subsequent discontinuous change. Consistent with complex adaptive systems theory, organizations are more sensitive to both accumulation and perturbation in conditions of heightened disequilibrium. Contrary to expectations, highly interconnected organizations are not more liable to discontinuous change. We conclude with implications for further research, especially the need to attend to the potential role of managerial design and coping when transferring complex adaptive systems theory from natural systems to organizational systems.

POSTMARITAL RESIDENCE PRACTICE IN SOUTHERN BRAZILIAN COASTAL GROUPS: CONTINUITY AND CHANGE

The coastal plains of the States of Parana and Santa Catarina, in Southern Brazil, were first settled around 6000 B.P. by shellmound builders, a successful fisher-hunter-gatherer population that inhabited the coastal lowlands practically unchanged for almost five thousand years. Shellmounds were typically occupied as residential sites as well as cemeteries, and are usually associated with rich alimentary zones. Around 1200 B.P., the first evidence of ceramics brought from the interior is found in coastal areas, and together with ceramics there is a progressive abandonment of shellmound construction in favor of flat cold shallow sites. Here we consider if these changes were reflected in the postmarital residence practice of coastal groups, i.e., if the arrival or intensification of contact with groups from the interior resulted in changes in this aspect of social structure among the coastal groups. To test the postmarital residence practice we analyzed within-group variability ratios between males and females, following previous studies on the topic. and between-group, correlations between Mahalanobis distances and geographic distances. The results suggest that in the pre-ceramic series a matrilocal, postmarital residential system predominated, while in the ceramic period there was a shift toward patrilocality. This favors the hypothesis that the changes experienced by coastal groups after 1200 B.P. affected not only their economy and material culture, but important aspects of their sociopolitical organization as well.

Social media crises in the organization: exploring management strategies through cases from France and Brazil

The aim of this Master’s thesis has been to shed light on the response strategies that organizations are implementing when facing a crisis created on or amplified by social media. Since the development of social media in the late 1990s, the interplay between the online and the offline spheres has become more complex, and characterized by dynamics of a new magnitude, as exemplified by the wave of “Twitter” Revolutions or the Wikileaks scandal in the mid 2000s, where online behaviors deeply affected an offline reality. The corporate world does not escape to this worldwide phenomenon, and there are more and more examples of organizational reputations destroyed by social media “fireballs”. As such, this research aims to investigate, through the analysis of six recent cases of corporate crises (2013-2015) from France and Brazil, different strategies currently in use in order to identify examples of good and bad practices for companies to adopt or avoid when facing a social media crisis. The first part of this research is dedicated to a review of the literature on crisis management and social media. From that review, we were able to design a matrix model, the Social Media Crisis Management Matrix, with which we analyzed the response strategies of the six companies we selected. This model allows the conceptualization of social media crises in a multidimensional matrix built to allow the choice, according to four parameters, of the most efficient (that is: which will limit the reputational damage) response strategy. Attribution of responsibility for the crisis to the company by stakeholders, the origin of the crisis (internal or external), the degree of reputational threat, and the emotions conveyed online by stakeholders help companies determining whether to adopt a defensive response, or an accommodative response. The results of the analysis suggest that social media crises are rather manichean objects for they are, unlike their traditional offline counterparts, characterized by emotional involvement and irrationality, and cannot be dealt with traditionally. Thus analyzing the emotions of stakeholders proved to be, in these cases, an accurate thermometer of the seriousness of the crisis, and as such, a better rudder to follow when selecting a response strategy. Consequently, in the cases, companies minimized their reputational damage when responding to their stakeholders in an accommodative way, regardless of the “objective” situation, which might be a change of paradigm in crisis management.

The Pediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organization American-College-of-Rheumatology provisional criteria for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus: Prospective validation of the definition of improvement

Objective. To use the Pediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organization (PRINTO) core set of outcome measures to develop a validated definition of improvement for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).Methods. Thirty-seven experienced pediatric rheumatologists from 27 countries, each of whom had specific experience in the assessment of juvenile SLE patients, achieved consensus on 128 patient profiles as being clinically improved or not improved. Using the physicians' consensus ratings as the gold standard measure, the chi-square, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and false-negative rates, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and kappa level of agreement for 597 candidate definitions of improvement were calculated. Only definitions with a kappa value greater than 0.7 were retained. The top definitions were selected based on the product of the content validity score multiplied by its kappa statistic.Results. The definition of improvement with the highest final score was at least 50% improvement from baseline in any 2 of the 5 core set measures, with no more than 1 of the remaining worsening by more than 30%.Conclusion. PRINTO proposes a valid and reproducible definition of improvement that reflects well the consensus rating of experienced clinicians and that incorporates clinically meaningful change in core set measures in a composite end point for the evaluation of global response to therapy in patients with juvenile SLE. The definition is now proposed for use in juvenile SLE clinical trials and may help physicians to decide whether a child with SLE responded adequately to therapy.

Photo luminescence: A probe for short, medium and long-range self-organization order in ZrTiO4 oxide

Photoluminescent disordered ZrTiO4 powders were obtained by the polymeric precursor soft-chemical method. This oxide system (ordered and disordered) was characterized by photoluminescence, Raman spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry and UV vis absorption experiments. The UV absorption tail formation in the disordered oxides was related to the diminution of optical band gap. In the disordered phase, this oxide displayed broad band photoluminescence caused by change in coordination number of titanium and zirconium with oxygen atoms. The gap decreased from 3.09 eV in crystalline oxide to 2.16 eV in disordered oxide. The crystalline oxide presented an orthorhombic alpha-PbO2-type structure in which Zr4+ and Ti4+ were randomly distributed in octahedral coordination polyhedra with oxygen atoms. The amorphous-crystalline transition occurred at almost 700 degrees C, at which point the photoluminescence vanished. The Raman peak at close to 80-200 cm(-1) indicated the presence of locally ordered Ti-O-n and Zr-O-n polyhedra in disordered photoluminescent oxides. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural organization of cetyltrimethylammonium sulfate in aqueous solution: the effect of Na2SO4

We used dynamic light scattering (DLS), a steady-state fluorescence, time resolved fluorescence quenching (TRFQ), tensiometry, conductimetry, and isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) to investigate the self-assembly of the cationic surfactant cetyltrimethylammonium sulfate (CTAS) in aqueous solution, which has SO42- as divalent counterion. We obtained the critical micelled concentration (cmc), aggregation number (N-agg), area per monomer (a(0)), hydrodynamic radius (R-H), and degree of counterion dissociation (alpha) of CTAS micelles in the absence and presence of up to 1 M Na2SO4 and at temperatures of 25 and 40 degrees C. Between 0.01 and 0.3 M salt the hydrodynamic radius of CTAS micelle R-H approximate to 16 angstrom is roughly independent on Na2SO4 concentration; below and above this concentration range R-H increases steeply with the salt concentration, indicating micelle structure transition, from spherical to rod-like structures. R-H increases only slightly as temperature increases from 25 to 40 degrees C, and the cmc decreases initially very steeply with Na2SO4 concentration up to about 10 mM, and thereafter it is constant. The area per surfactant at the water/air interface, a(0), initially increases steeply with Na2SO4 concentration, and then decrases above ca. 10 mM. Conductimetry gives alpha = 0.18 for the degree of counterion dissociation, and N-agg obtained by fluorescence methods increases with surfactant concentration but it is roughly independent of up to 80 mM salt. The ITC data yield cmc of 0.22 mM in water, and the calculated enthalpy change of micelle formation, Delta H-mic = 3.8 kJ mol(-1), Gibbs free energy of micellization of surfactant molecules, Delta G(mic) = -38.0 kJ mol(-1) and entropy T Delta S-mic = 41.7 kJ mol(-1) indicate that the formation of CTAS micelles is entropy-driven. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural organization and thermal properties of the Sb2O3-SbPO4 glass system

The structural organization of Sb2O3-SbPO4 glasses has been studied by FTIR, Raman, P-31 MAS and spin echo NMR, Mossbauer and X-ray absorption spectroscopy (EXAFS and XANES at K and L-3,L-1-Sb edges). The combined results can be explained in terms of two potential mechanisms describing the change of the Sb(m) local environment upon incorporation of Q((4))-type phosphate. The formation of the latter species requires anionic compensation that may be adjusted by (a) formation of non bridging oxygen or (b) formation of SbO4E- groups (E = non-bonding electron pair). The second model is favored.

Developing a research agenda for promoting physical activity in Brazil through environmental and policy change

Objective. To identify the highest priorities for research on environmental and policy changes for promoting physical activity (PA) in Brazil; to uncover any gaps between researchers' and practitioners' priorities; and to consider which tools, methods, collaborative strategies, and actions could be useful to moving a research agenda forward.Methods. This was a mixed-methods study (qualitative and quantitative) conducted by Project GUIA (Guide for Useful Interventions for Activity in Brazil and Latin America) in February 2010-January 2011. A total of 240 individuals in the PA field (186 practitioners and 54 researchers) were asked to generate research ideas; 82 participants provided 266 original statements from which 52 topics emerged. Participants rated topics by "importance" and "feasibility;" a separate convenience sample of 21 individuals categorized them. Cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling were used to create concept maps and pattern matches.Results. Five distinct clusters emerged from the concept mapping, of which " effectiveness and innovation in PA interventions" was rated most important by both practitioners and researchers. Pattern matching showed a divergence between the groups, especially regarding feasibility, where there was no consensus.Conclusions. The study results provided the basis for a research agenda to advance the understanding of environmental and policy influences on PA promotion in Brazil and Latin America. These results should stimulate future research and, ultimately, contribute to the evidence-base of successful PA strategies in Latin America.

Structural change and productivity growth, 20 years later: old problems, new opportunities

Includes bibliography

Tax performance and reform in the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS)

Includes bibliography

The in-bond assembly industry and technical change

Includes bibliography

Structural change and domestic technological capabilities

Includes bibliography

Structural change and productivity growth 20 years later: old problems, new opportunities. Summary

Includes bibliography

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Guyana

Climate change is considered to be the most pervasive and truly global of all issues affecting humanity. It poses a serious threat to the environment, as well as to economies and societies. Whilst it is clear that the impacts of climate change are varied, scientists have agreed that its effects will not be evenly distributed and that developing countries and small island developing States (SIDS) will be the first and hardest hit. Small island developing States, many of whom have fewer resources to adapt socially, technologically and financially to climate change, are considered to be the most vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. An economic analysis of climate change can provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Caribbean closer to solving the problems associated with climate change, and to attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Climate change is expected to affect the health of populations. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO), in Protecting Health from Climate Change (2008), states that the continuation of current patterns of fossil fuel use, development and population growth will lead to ongoing climate change, with serious effects on the environment and, consequently, on human lives and health. Assessing the economics of potential health impacts of climate variability and change requires an understanding of both the vulnerability of a population and its capacity to respond to new conditions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines vulnerability as the degree to which individuals and systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes (WHO and others, 2003). The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in collaboration with the Caribbean Community Centre for Climate Change (CCCCC), is pursuing a regional project to ―Review the Economics of Climate Change in the Caribbean‖ (RECCC). The purpose of the project is to assess the likely economic impacts of climate change on key sectors of Caribbean economies, through applying robust simulation modelling analyses under various socio-economic scenarios and carbon emission trajectories for the next 40 years. The findings are expected to stimulate local and national governments, regional institutions, the private sector and civil society to craft and implement policies, cost-effective options and efficient choices to mitigate and adapt to climate change.