An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

(Optimal) Spatial Aggregation in the Determinants of Industrial Location

Empirical studies on the determinants of industrial location typically use variables measured at the available administrative level (municipalities, counties, etc.). However, this amounts to assuming that the effects these determinants may have on the location process do not extent beyond the geographical limits of the selected site. We address the validity of this assumption by comparing results from standard count data models with those obtained by calculating the geographical scope of the spatially varying explanatory variables using a wide range of distances and alternative spatial autocorrelation measures. Our results reject the usual practice of using administrative records as covariates without making some kind of spatial correction. Keywords: industrial location, count data models, spatial statistics JEL classification: C25, C52, R11, R30

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the natural death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. We consider that the length of the lysis timing (or latent period) is distributed according to a general probability distribution function. We have carried out an optimization procedure and we have found the latent period corresponding to the maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate) of the bacteriophage population.

Novel testis germ cell-specific transcript of the CREB gene contains an alternatively spliced exon with multiple in-frame stop codons.

The gene encoding the cAMP-responsive transcription factor CREB consists of multiple small exons some of which undergo alternative RNA splicing. We describe the finding of a novel transcript of the CREB gene expressed at high levels in the germ cells of the rat testis. The transcript contains an alternatively spliced exon inserted within the sequence encoding the transcriptional transactivation domain of CREB and this exon contains multiple in-frame stop codons. Furthermore, the exon is conserved in both rat and human genes (75% nucleotide identity). Although the function(s) of this RNA or the truncated CREB protein predicted to result from the translation of this unusual transcript is unknown, the high level of expression in the testicular germ cells and remarkable conservation of sequences in rat and human suggests that it may have a unique biological function in these cells.

Research activities at european level performed at the Institute for Públic Safety of Catalonia

To start off, this document describes the Catalan model for emergencies response and its reference frame in terms of geography, location population…In addition, describes the main actors involved in emergencies response such as: police, the Fire and Rescue Emergency Service, the Emergency Medical System, Civil Protection, Reception and Management of Emergency Calls, Rural Agents, ADF’s and UME. Civil Protection, Firefighters and Police are includes in the training model developed by the Institute for Public Safety of Catalonia which at the same time does research in both security and safety matters. Research activities are performed by the Area for Research, Knowledge and International Cooperation at the ISPC and an example of these activities are European Research Projects such as COIM-Best (Coordination Improvement by Best Practices) and BESECU (cross-cultural differences of human behaviour in fire disasters and other crisis situations) among others.

Effects of brood manipulation costs on optimal sex allocation in social hymenoptera.

In eusocial Hymenoptera, queens and workers are in conflict over optimal sex allocation. Sex ratio theory, while generating predictions on the extent of this conflict under a wide range of conditions, has largely neglected the fact that worker control of investment almost certainly requires the manipulation of brood sex ratio. This manipulation is likely to incur costs, for example, if workers eliminate male larvae or rear more females as sexuals rather than workers. In this article, we present a model of sex ratio evolution under worker control that incorporates costs of brood manipulation. We assume cost to be a continuous, increasing function of the magnitude of sex ratio manipulation. We demonstrate that costs counterselect sex ratio biasing, which leads to less female-biased population sex ratios than expected on the basis of relatedness asymmetry. Furthermore, differently shaped cost functions lead to different equilibria of manipulation at the colony level. While linear and accelerating cost functions generate monomorphic equilibria, decelerating costs lead to a process of evolutionary branching and hence split sex ratios.

Lack of correlation between the optimal glycaemic control and coronary micro vascular dysfunction in patients with diabetes mellitus: a cross sectional study.

Background Coronary microvascular dysfunction (CMD) is associated with cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Optimal glycaemic control does not always preclude future events. We sought to assess the effect of the current target of HBA1c level on the coronary microcirculatory function and identify predictive factors for CMD in T2DM patients. Methods We studied 100 patients with T2DM and 214 patients without T2DM. All of them with a history of chest pain, non-obstructive angiograms and a direct assessment of coronary blood flow increase in response to adenosine and acetylcholine coronary infusion, for evaluation of endothelial independent and dependent CMD. Patients with T2DM were categorized as having optimal (HbA1c < 7 %) vs. suboptimal (HbA1c ≥ 7 %) glycaemic control at the time of catheterization. Results Baseline characteristics and coronary endothelial function parameters differed significantly between T2DM patients and control group. The prevalence of endothelial independent CMD (29.8 vs. 39.6 %, p = 0.40) and dependent CMD (61.7 vs. 62.2 %, p = 1.00) were similar in patients with optimal vs. suboptimal glycaemic control. Age (OR 1.10; CI 95 % 1.04–1.18; p < 0.001) and female gender (OR 3.87; CI 95 % 1.45–11.4; p < 0.01) were significantly associated with endothelial independent CMD whereas glomerular filtrate (OR 0.97; CI 95 % 0.95–0.99; p < 0.05) was significantly associated with endothelial dependent CMD. The optimal glycaemic control was not associated with endothelial independent (OR 0.60, CI 95 % 0.23–1.46; p 0.26) or dependent CMD (OR 0.99, CI 95 % 0.43–2.24; p = 0.98). Conclusions The current target of HBA1c level does not predict a better coronary microcirculatory function in T2DM patients. The appropriate strategy for prevention of CMD in T2DM patients remains to be addressed. Keywords: Endothelial dysfunction; Diabetes mellitus; Coronary microcirculation

Auditory-visual multisensory interactions in humans: timing, topography, directionality, and sources.

Current models of brain organization include multisensory interactions at early processing stages and within low-level, including primary, cortices. Embracing this model with regard to auditory-visual (AV) interactions in humans remains problematic. Controversy surrounds the application of an additive model to the analysis of event-related potentials (ERPs), and conventional ERP analysis methods have yielded discordant latencies of effects and permitted limited neurophysiologic interpretability. While hemodynamic imaging and transcranial magnetic stimulation studies provide general support for the above model, the precise timing, superadditive/subadditive directionality, topographic stability, and sources remain unresolved. We recorded ERPs in humans to attended, but task-irrelevant stimuli that did not require an overt motor response, thereby circumventing paradigmatic caveats. We applied novel ERP signal analysis methods to provide details concerning the likely bases of AV interactions. First, nonlinear interactions occur at 60-95 ms after stimulus and are the consequence of topographic, rather than pure strength, modulations in the ERP. AV stimuli engage distinct configurations of intracranial generators, rather than simply modulating the amplitude of unisensory responses. Second, source estimations (and statistical analyses thereof) identified primary visual, primary auditory, and posterior superior temporal regions as mediating these effects. Finally, scalar values of current densities in all of these regions exhibited functionally coupled, subadditive nonlinear effects, a pattern increasingly consistent with the mounting evidence in nonhuman primates. In these ways, we demonstrate how neurophysiologic bases of multisensory interactions can be noninvasively identified in humans, allowing for a synthesis across imaging methods on the one hand and species on the other.

Sibling rivalry and vocal negotiation in the barn owl Tyto alba

Chez les animaux, les jeunes dépendant des parents durant leur développement sont en compétition pour obtenir la nourriture, qu'ils quémandent par des cris et postures ostentatoires et se disputent physiquement. Les frères et soeurs n'ont pas la même compétitivité, en particulier s'ils diffèrent en âge, et leur niveau de faim fluctue dans le temps. Comme dans tout type de compétition, chacun doit ajuster son investissement aux rivaux, c'est à dire aux besoins et comportements de ses frères et soeurs. Dans le contexte de la famille, selon la théorie de sélection de parentèle, les jeunes bénéficient de leur survie mutuelle et donc de la propagation de la part de gènes qu'ils ont en commun. L'hypothèse de la « négociation frères-soeurs » prédit que, sous certaines conditions, les jeunes négocient entre eux la nourriture, ce qui réduit les coûts de compétition et permet de favoriser les frères et soeurs les plus affamés. La littérature actuelle se focalise sur les signaux de quémande entre enfants et parents et les interactions compétitives frères-soeurs sont étudiées principalement au sein de paires, alors que les nichées ou portées en comprennent souvent de nombreux. Cette thèse vise à mieux comprendre comment et jusqu'à quel point plusieurs jeunes ajustent mutuellement leurs signaux de besoin. C'est une question importante, étant donné que cela influence la répartition de nourriture entre eux, donc la résolution du conflit qui les oppose et à terme leur valeur évolutive. Le modèle d'étude est la chouette effraie (Tyto alba), chez laquelle jusqu'à neufs poussins émettent des milliers de cris chacun par nuit. Ils négocieraient entre eux la prochaine proie indivisible rapportée au nid avant que les parents ne reviennent : un poussin affamé crie plus qu'un autre moins affamé, ce qui dissuade ce dernier de crier en retour et par la suite de quémander la nourriture aux parents. L'investissement optimal correspondrait donc à écarter son frère en permanence vu que l'arrivée des parents est imprévisible, mais à moindre coût. Dans un premier axe, nous avons exploré au sein de dyades les mécanismes acoustiques permettant aux poussins de doser leur effort vocal durant les heures de compétition où ils sont laissés seuls au nid. Nous avons trouvé que les poussins évitent de crier simultanément, ce qui optimiserait la discrimination du nombre et de la durée de leurs cris, lesquels reflètent de façon honnête leur niveau de faim et donc leur motivation. L'alternance des cris paraît particulièrement adaptée au fait que les poussins se fient à des variations temporelles subtiles dans le rythme et la durée de leurs vocalisations pour prendre la parole. En particulier, allonger ses cris tout en criant moins dissuade efficacement le rival de répondre, ce qui permet de monopoliser la parole dans de longs « monologues ». Ces règles seraient universelles puisqu'elles ne dépendent pas de la séniorité, de la faim, ni de la parenté et les poussins répondent à un playback de façon similaire à un vrai frère. Tous ces résultats apportent la première preuve expérimentale que les juvéniles communiquent de façon honnête sur leurs besoins, ajustent activement le rythme de leurs cris et utilisent des composantes multiples de leurs vocalisations d'une façon qui réduit le coût de la compétition. De plus, il s'agit de la première démonstration que des règles de conversation régissent de longs échanges vocaux chez les animaux de façon comparable aux règles basiques observées chez l'Homme. Dans un second axe, nous avons exploré les stratégies comportementales que les poussins adoptent pour rivaliser avec plusieurs frères et soeurs, par le biais d'expériences de playback. Nous avons trouvé que les poussins mémorisent des asymétries de compétitivité entre deux individus qui dialoguent et répondent plus agressivement au moins compétitif une fois qu'ils sont confrontés à chacun isolément. Dans la même ligne, quand ils entendent un nombre variable d'individus criant à un taux variable, les poussins investissent le plus contre des rivaux moins nombreux et moins motivés. En accord avec les prédictions des modèles théoriques, les poussins de chouette effraie escaladent donc les conflits pour lesquels leur chance de gagner contrebalance le plus l'énergie dépensée. Nous révélons ainsi que 1) les jeunes frères et soeurs 'espionnent' les interactions de leurs rivaux pour évaluer leur compétitivité relative, ce qui est sans doute moins coûteux qu'une confrontation directe avec chacun, et 2) dosent leur investissement vocal en fonction du nombre de rivaux actuellement en compétition et de leur motivation de façon concomitante. Ces résultats montrent que les interactions entre frères et soeurs au nid reposent sur des mécanismes similaires à ceux observés, mais encore de façon anecdotique, chez les adultes non apparentés qui se disputent les territoires et partenaires sexuels. Cette thèse souligne donc combien il est crucial de considérer dorénavant la famille comme un réseau de communication à part entière pour mieux comprendre comment les jeunes résolvent les conflits autour du partage des ressources parentales. Plus généralement, elle révèle l'importance de la dynamique temporelle des vocalisations dans les conflits et la communication des animaux. A la lumière de nos résultats, la chouette effraie apparaît comme un modèle clé pour de futures recherches sur la résolution des conflits et la communication acoustique. - In species with parental care, offspring contest priority access to food by begging through conspicuous postures and vocalisations and by physically jockeying. Siblings differ in their competitiveness, especially in the case of age and size hierarchies, and their hunger level fluctuates in time. As in competition in general, each individual should adjust its investment to opponents that is to say to its siblings' needs and behaviours. In the particular context of family, according to kin selection theory, siblings derive extra fitness benefits from their mutual survival and hence the spreading of the genes they share. The "sibling negotiation" predicts that, under certain conditions, young would negotiate among them priority access to food, which reduces competition costs and enables promoting the most hungry siblings. To date, the literature focuses on signals of need between parents and offspring and competitive interactions (in particular among siblings) are mostly studied within pairwise interactions, yet they commonly involve more numerous rivals. This PhD aims at better understanding how and the extent to which several young siblings compete through signalling. This is important since this influences how food is allocated among them, thus the outcome of sibling rivalry and ultimately their fitness. I use the barn owl (Tyto alba) as a model, in which the one to nine nestlings emit a simple noisy call thousands of times per night. Thereby, they would negotiate among them priority access to the indivisible food next delivered prior to parents' feeding visits. A hungry nestling emits more calls than a less hungry sibling, which deters it to call in return and ultimately beg food at parents. The optimal investment thus corresponds to constantly deterring the rival to compete, given that parents' arrival is unpredictable, but at the lowest costs. In the first axis of my thesis, we explored within dyads the acoustic mechanisms by which owlets dose vocal effort when competing during the hours they are left alone. We found that owlets avoid overlapping each other's calls. This would enhance the discrimination of both call number and duration, which honestly reflect individuals' hunger level and hence motivation to compete. Such antiphony seems best adapted to the fact that siblings actually use subtle temporal variations in the rhythm and duration of their calls to take or give their turn. Owlets alternate monologs, in which lengthening calls efficiently deters the rival to respond while reducing call number. Such rules depend neither on seniority, hunger level nor kinship since nestlings responded similarly to a live sibling and an unrelated playback individual. Taken together, these findings provide the first experimental proof that dependent young honestly communicate about their need, actively adjust the timing of their calls and use multicomponent signals in a way that reduces vocal costs. Moreover, this is the first demonstration of conversational rules underlying animal long-lasting vocal exchanges comparable to the basic turn-taking signals observed in humans. In the second axis, we focused on the behavioural strategies owlets adopt to compete with more than one sibling, using playback experiments. We found that singleton bystanders memorised competitive asymmetries between two playback individuals dialoguing and responded more aggressively to the submissive one once they later faced each of both alone. Moreover, when hearing a varying number of nestlings calling at varying rates, owlets vocally invested the most towards fewer and less motivated rivals. In line with predictions from models on conflict settlement, barn owls thus escalate contests in which their chance of winning best counterbalances the energy spent. These results reveal that young socially eavesdrop on their siblings' interactions to assess their relative competitiveness at likely lower costs than direct confrontation, and dose vocal effort relative to both their number and motivation. This shows that young siblings' interactions imply mechanisms similar to those observed, yet still anecdotally, in unrelated adults that contest mates and territories. This PhD therefore highlights how crucial it is to further consider family as a communication network to better understand how siblings resolve conflicts over the share of parental resources. More generally, it provides important insights into the role of the temporal dynamics of signalling during animal contests and communication. In the light of our findings, the barn owl emerges as a key model for future research on conflict resolution and acoustic communication in animals.

Optimal Design of Permit Markets with an Ex Ante Pollution Target, August 2006

In this paper, we examine the design of permit trading programs when the objective is to minimize the cost of achieving an ex ante pollution target, that is, one that is defined in expectation rather than an ex post deterministic value. We consider two potential sources of uncertainty, the presence of either of which can make our model appropriate: incomplete information on abatement costs and uncertain delivery coefficients. In such a setting, we find three distinct features that depart from the well-established results on permit trading: (1) the regulator’s information on firms’ abatement costs can matter; (2) the optimal permit cap is not necessarily equal to the ex ante pollution target; and (3) the optimal trading ratio is not necessarily equal to the delivery coefficient even when it is known with certainty. Intuitively, since the regulator is only required to meet a pollution target on average, she can set the trading ratio and total permit cap such that there will be more pollution when abatement costs are high and less pollution when abatement costs are low. Information on firms’ abatement costs is important in order for the regulator to induce the optimal alignment between pollution level and abatement costs.

Genetic team composition and level of selection in the evolution of cooperation

In cooperative multiagent systems, agents interac to solve tasks. Global dynamics of multiagent teams result from local agent interactions, and are complex and difficult to predict. Evolutionary computation has proven a promising approach to the design of such teams. The majority of current studies use teams composed of agents with identical control rules ("geneti- cally homogeneous teams") and select behavior at the team level ("team-level selection"). Here we extend current approaches to include four combinations of genetic team composition and level of selection. We compare the performance of genetically homo- geneous teams evolved with individual-level selection, genetically homogeneous teams evolved with team-level selection, genetically heterogeneous teams evolved with individual-level selection, and genetically heterogeneous teams evolved with team-level selection. We use a simulated foraging task to show that the optimal combination depends on the amount of cooperation required by the task. Accordingly, we distinguish between three types of cooperative tasks and suggest guidelines for the optimal choice of genetic team composition and level of selection

Influence of the timing of cardiac surgery on the outcome of patients with infective endocarditis and stroke.

BACKGROUND: The timing of cardiac surgery after stroke in infective endocarditis (IE) remains controversial. We examined the relationship between the timing of surgery after stroke and the incidence of in-hospital and 1-year mortalities. METHODS: Data were obtained from the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study of 4794 patients with definite IE who were admitted to 64 centers from June 2000 through December 2006. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were performed to estimate the impact of early surgery on hospital and 1-year mortality after adjustments for other significant covariates. RESULTS: Of the 857 patients with IE complicated by ischemic stroke syndromes, 198 who underwent valve replacement surgery poststroke were available for analysis. Overall, 58 (29.3%) patients underwent early surgical treatment vs 140 (70.7%) patients who underwent late surgical treatment. After adjustment for other risk factors, early surgery was not significantly associated with increased in-hospital mortality rates (odds ratio, 2.308; 95% confidence interval [CI], .942-5.652). Overall, probability of death after 1-year follow-up did not differ between 2 treatment groups (27.1% in early surgery and 19.2% in late surgery group, P = .328; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.138; 95% CI, .802-1.650). CONCLUSIONS: There is no apparent survival benefit in delaying surgery when indicated in IE patients after ischemic stroke. Further observational analyses that include detailed pre- and postoperative clinical neurologic findings and advanced imaging data (eg, ischemic stroke size), may allow for more refined recommendations on the optimal timing of valvular surgery in patients with IE and recent stroke syndromes.

Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union

We lay out a tractable model for fiscal and monetary policy analysis in a currency union, and study its implications for the optimal design of such policies. Monetary policy is conducted by a common central bank, which sets the interest rate for the union as a whole. Fiscal policy is implemented at the countrylevel, through the choice of government spending. The model incorporates country-specific shocks and nominal rigidities. Under our assumptions, the optimal cooperative policy arrangement requires that inflation be stabilized at the union level by the common central bank, while fiscal policy is used by each country for stabilization purposes. By contrast, when the fiscal authorities act in a non-coordinated way, their joint actions lead to a suboptimal outcome, and make the common central bank face a trade-off between inflation and output gap stabilization at the union level.

Optimal negligence rule under limited liability

We study the standard economic model of unilateral accidents, in its simplest form, assumingthat the injurers have limited assets.We identify a second-best optimal rule that selects as duecare the minimum of first-best care, and a level of care that takes into account the wealth ofthe injurer. We show that such a rule in fact maximizes the precautionary effort by a potentialinjurer. The idea is counterintuitive: Being softer on an injurer, in terms of the required level ofcare, actually improves the incentives to take care when he is potentially insolvent. We extendthe basic result to an entire population of potentially insolvent injurers, and find that the optimalgeneral standards of care do depend on wealth, and distribution of income. We also show theconditions for the result that higher income levels in a given society call for higher levels of carefor accidents.