Regional integration in Latin America and dynamic gains from macroeconomic cooperation

Includes bibliography

SINGULARLY PERTURBED DISCOUNTED MARKOV CONTROL PROCESSES IN A GENERAL STATE SPACE

This paper studies the asymptotic optimality of discrete-time Markov decision processes (MDPs) with general state space and action space and having weak and strong interactions. By using a similar approach as developed by Liu, Zhang, and Yin [Appl. Math. Optim., 44 (2001), pp. 105-129], the idea in this paper is to consider an MDP with general state and action spaces and to reduce the dimension of the state space by considering an averaged model. This formulation is often described by introducing a small parameter epsilon > 0 in the definition of the transition kernel, leading to a singularly perturbed Markov model with two time scales. Our objective is twofold. First it is shown that the value function of the control problem for the perturbed system converges to the value function of a limit averaged control problem as epsilon goes to zero. In the second part of the paper, it is proved that a feedback control policy for the original control problem defined by using an optimal feedback policy for the limit problem is asymptotically optimal. Our work extends existing results of the literature in the following two directions: the underlying MDP is defined on general state and action spaces and we do not impose strong conditions on the recurrence structure of the MDP such as Doeblin's condition.

Hepatitis A vaccines and the elderly

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) exposure in unprotected adults may cause severe and serious symptoms, with risk of both morbidity and mortality increasing with age. As seroprevalence of HAV is low in industrialised countries, and an increasing number of people, with an increasing median age, travel from areas of low HAV endemicity to high endemicity, pre-travel vaccination is warranted. Vaccination of the elderly against HAV, however, may be associated with reduced seroprotection, since the immune response decreases with age. Studies with monovalent hepatitis A vaccine or combined hepatitis A and B vaccine show good efficacy in adults in general. Few studies have assessed the immune response in older adults. The only prospective study with monovalent hepatitis A vaccine in the elderly showed a reduced seroprotection of approximately 65% after a single primary dose in subjects over the age of 50 years, while seroprotection was 98% in this age group after receiving a booster dose. The only prospective study with combined hepatitis A and B vaccine in younger subjects or older than 40 years showed similar seroprotection (99-100%) against HAV compared to a monovalent vaccine after receiving three doses. As data on seroprotection for HAV in the elderly are limited, further studies are needed to elucidate how optimal protection in the elderly can be achieved. In the mean time, based on the available data, the suggestion is made to screen elderly travellers to areas endemic for HAV for the presence of naturally acquired immunity, and, if found susceptible, be immunised well in advance of their trip, to allow time for post-vaccination antibody testing and/or administration of a second dose of the vaccine.

The prospect of applying chemical elicitors and plant strengtheners to enhance the biological control of crop pests

An imminent food crisis reinforces the need for novel strategies to increase crop yields worldwide. Effective control of pest insects should be part of such strategies, preferentially with reduced negative impact on the environment and optimal protection and utilization of existing biodiversity. Enhancing the presence and efficacy of native biological control agents could be one such strategy. Plant strengthener is a generic term for several commercially available compounds or mixtures of compounds that can be applied to cultivated plants in order to ‘boost their vigour, resilience and performance’. Studies into the consequences of boosting plant resistance against pests and diseases on plant volatiles have found a surprising and dramatic increase in the plants' attractiveness to parasitic wasps. Here, we summarize the results from these studies and present new results from assays that illustrate the great potential of two commercially available resistance elicitors. We argue that plant strengtheners may currently be the best option to enhance the attractiveness of cultivated plants to biological control agents. Other options, such as the genetic manipulation of the release of specific volatiles may offer future solutions, but in most systems, we still miss fundamental knowledge on which key attractants should be targeted for this approach.

An approach to stakeholders involvement in the preparedness for nuclear and radiological emergency response & recovery in Spain

The elaboration of a generic decision-making strategy to address the evolution of an emergency situation, from the stages of response to recovery, and including a planning stage, can facilitate timely, effective and consistent decision making by the response organisations at every level within the emergency management structure and between countries, helping to ensure optimal protection of health, environment, and society. The degree of involvement of stakeholders in this process is a key strategic element for strengthening the local preparedness and response and can help a successful countermeasures strategy. A significant progress was made with the multi-national European project EURANOS (2004-2009) which brought together best practice, knowledge and technology to enhance the preparedness for Europe's response to any radiation emergency and long term contamination. The subsequent establishment of a European Technology Platform and the recent launch of the research project NERIS-TP ("Towards a self sustaining European Technology Platform (NERIS-TP) on Preparedness for Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Response and Recovery") are aimed to continue with the remaining tasks for gaining appropriate levels of emergency preparedness at local level in most European countries. One of the objectives of the NERIS-TP project is: Strengthen the preparedness at the local/national level by setting up dedicated fora and developing new tools or adapting the tools developed within the EURANOS projects (such as the governance framework for preparedness, the handbooks on countermeasures, the RODOS system, and the MOIRA DSS for long term contamination in catchments) to meet the needs of local communities. CIEMAT and UPM in close interaction with the Nuclear Safety Council will explore, within this project, the use and application in Spain of such technical tools, including other national tools and information and communication strategies to foster cooperation between local, national and international stakeholders. The aim is identify and involve relevant stakeholders in emergency preparedness to improve the development and implementation of appropriate protection strategies as part of the consequence management and the transition to recovery. In this paper, an overview of the "state of the art" on this area in Spain and the methodology and work Plan proposed by the Spanish group within the project NERIS to grow the stakeholder involvement in the preparedness to emergency response and recovery is presented.

Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

Information Guide: Food Safety

A guide to the European Union's Food Safety policy, with hyperlinks to sources of information within European Sources Online and on external websites.

Dynamic, convex, and robust optimization with Bayesian learning for response-guided dosing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Distributed control of computer communication systems

Flow control in Computer Communication systems is generally a multi-layered structure, consisting of several mechanisms operating independently at different levels. Evaluation of the performance of networks in which different flow control mechanisms act simultaneously is an important area of research, and is examined in depth in this thesis. This thesis presents the modelling of a finite resource computer communication network equipped with three levels of flow control, based on closed queueing network theory. The flow control mechanisms considered are: end-to-end control of virtual circuits, network access control of external messages at the entry nodes and the hop level control between nodes. The model is solved by a heuristic technique, based on an equivalent reduced network and the heuristic extensions to the mean value analysis algorithm. The method has significant computational advantages, and overcomes the limitations of the exact methods. It can be used to solve large network models with finite buffers and many virtual circuits. The model and its heuristic solution are validated by simulation. The interaction between the three levels of flow control are investigated. A queueing model is developed for the admission delay on virtual circuits with end-to-end control, in which messages arrive from independent Poisson sources. The selection of optimum window limit is considered. Several advanced network access schemes are postulated to improve the network performance as well as that of selected traffic streams, and numerical results are presented. A model for the dynamic control of input traffic is developed. Based on Markov decision theory, an optimal control policy is formulated. Numerical results are given and throughput-delay performance is shown to be better with dynamic control than with static control.

A busca por uma política nacional dos biocombustíveis como tutela do direito fundamental ao meio ambiente : acautelamento e avaliação de riscos

The work is to demonstrate the scope of modern-day major regulatory provisions and the policies implemented to adoption of biofuels in the national energy matrix. The adoption of biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuels, is based on the realization of the fundamental right to an ecologically balanced environment mitigating hazards and environmental hazards arising from a postmodern society. However, the change in the Brazilian energy matrix observe the precepts of certain environmental principles to essentially environmental preservation The proposed Environmental rule of law is founded on the realization of the right (duty) key to an ecologically balanced environment for sustainable development. Thus, it is up to the State, in addition to considering the dangers and risks fruits of government decisions, present the possible instruments to mitigate the irreversible environmental damage to the environment. The management of environmental risks present in the ideals of an Environmental rule of law, plays an important role in the preservation and economic development, using, therefore, of acautelatórios legal instruments, such as environmental licensing and the ecological-economic zoning, measures adopted in the light of the principles of precaution and preservation. The adoption of research in the environmental field, improvement and development of environmental technology, building a system to observe ecological changes, imposition of environmental policy objectives to be achieved in the medium and long term and systematization of organizations plan a protection policy environmental, are essential measures to control possible environmental risks and damage guided by the aforementioned environmental principles. Thus, it will be used the inductive method of approach, starting from the analysis of the new perspective of Environmental rule of law and the implementation of biofuels in the context of a post-modern society, marked by uncertainty and the risk of damage, from the study of the principles of caution, maintaining and cautionary measures in mitigating the hazards and potential risks.

Essays on Omnichannel Sale

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Empresa privada y participación digital: modelo de negocio y derecho de petición en Change.org

Esta investigación pretende aproximarse al papel de Change.org como plataforma de petición electrónica en España, donde no existen alternativas administradas por los poderes públicos. Mediante un análisis de contenido cualitativo y una entrevista semi-estructurada, investigamos el modelo de negocio de la página, con el objetivo de conocer su política de protección de datos, su sistema de verificación de los usuarios y, de forma más general, el marco legislativo en el que opera. Los resultados obtenidos muestran al proyecto alejado del derecho de petición español, con un sistema de testeo laxo y que basa sus beneficios en el coste por adquisición.

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal tradeoffs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.

The Timing of Asset Trade and Optimal Policy in Dynamic Open Economies

Using a standard open economy DSGE model, it is shown that the timing of asset trade relative to policy decisions has a potentially important impact on the welfare evaluation of monetary policy at the individual country level. If asset trade in the initial period takes place before the announcement of policy, a national policymaker can choose a policy rule which reduces the work effort of households in the policymaker’s country in the knowledge that consumption is fully insured by optimally chosen international portfolio positions. But if asset trade takes place after the policy announcement, this insurance is absent and households in the policymaker’s country bear the full consumption consequences of the chosen policy rule. The welfare incentives faced by national policymakers are very different between the two cases. Numerical examples confirm that asset market timing has a significant impact on the optimal policy rule.