Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Malaysia before the Asian Crisis

This paper provides a case study to characterize the monetary policy regime in Malaysia, from a medium- and long-term perspective. Specifically, we ask how the central bank of Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), has structured its monetary policy regime, and how it has conducted monetary and exchange rate policy under the regime. By conducting three empirical analyses, we characterize the monetary and exchange rate policy regime in Malaysia by three intermediate solutions on three vectors: the degree of autonomy in monetary policy, the degree of variability of the exchange rate, and the degree of capital mobility.

Is It Worthwhile for Indonesia to Rush into a Free Trade Deal with Japan?

This report represents a preliminary attempt to refine some basic ideas on the potential impact Indonesia might experience from a free trade arrangement with Japan, using a forward-looking, multi-regional, multi-sectoral applied general equilibrium model of global trade to capture growth effects through capital accumulation paying attention to the changes in the patterns of interregional capital flows that might happen even before the policy change occurs. The simulation results revealed that the welfare gains of rushing into trade liberalization with Japan are not so large. This makes out that taking time over negotiations might be the best choice for Indonesia if the government places priority on convincing the Indonesian people that a free trade deal with Japan will definitely bring positive effects, while proceeding rapidly might be the answer if the country is serious about recovering the welfare levels that might be lowered by free trade arrangements among Malaysia, the Philippines, and Japan.

An Empirical Analysis of the Monetary Policy Reaction Function in India

This paper empirically analyzes India’s monetary policy reaction function by applying the Taylor (1993) rule and its open-economy version which employs dynamic OLS. The analysis uses monthly data from the period of April 1998 to December 2007. When the simple Taylor rule was estimated for India, the output gap coefficient was statistically significant, and its sign condition was found to be consistent with theoretical rationale; however, the same was not true of the inflation coefficient. When the Taylor rule with exchange rate was estimated, the coefficients of output gap and exchange rate had statistical significance with the expected signs, whereas the results of inflation remained the same as before. Therefore, the inflation rate has not played a role in the conduct of India’s monetary policy, and it is inappropriate for India to adopt an inflation-target type policy framework.

Large Fluctuations in Consumption in Least Developed Countries

The objective of this paper is to shed light on mechanism which increases fluctuation in consumption of least developed countries. In general large fluctuation in consumption makes consumers worse off. This fact suggests that accumulation of knowledge on the generating mechanism of the large consumption fluctuation very likely contributes to welfare improvement of the least developed countries, through policies stabilizing consumption. We specifically investigated the fluctuation in consumption, through the numerical analysis with a dynamic macroeconomic model.

Liability dollarization and fear of floating

This paper explores the idea that fear of floating can be justified as an optimal discretionary monetary policy in a dollarized emerging economy. Specifically, I consider a small open economy in which intermediate goods importers borrow in foreign currency and face a credit constraint. In this economy, exchange rate depreciation not only worsens importers' net-worth but also increases the financing amount in domestic currency, therefore exaggerating their borrowing finance premium. Besides, because of high exchange rate pass-through into import prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate also have strong impacts on domestic prices and production. These effects, together, magnify the macroeconomic consequences of the floating exchange rate policy in response to external shocks. The paper shows that the floating exchange rate regime is dominated by the fixed exchange rate regime in the role of cushioning shocks and in welfare terms.

International real business cycles : a re-visit

It is well known that several quantitative properties of international real business cycle models with are at odds with the data. First, the cross-country correlations are much higher for consumption than for output, while in the data the opposite is true (the BKK puzzle). Second, cross-country correlations of employment and investment are negative, while in the data they are positive. This paper quantitatively shows that preferences with a zero income effect on labor supply help generate a correct cross-country correlation in employment even without any restrictions on financial markets. In a bond economy, a zero income effect in labor supply, combined with time-to-build investment, can generate a positive cross-country correlation in investment, and the BKK puzzle is also resolved when the inter-temporal elasticity of substitution in labor supply is low.

Sources of fluctuations in parallel exchange rates and policy reform in Myanmar

Myanmar maintained a multiple exchange rate system, and the parallel market exchange rate was left untamed. In the last two decades, the Myanmar kyat exchange rate of the parallel market has exhibited the sharpest fluctuations among Southeast Asian currencies in real terms. Since the move to a managed float regime in April 2012, the question arises of whether exchange rate policies will be effective in stabilizing the real exchange rate. This paper investigates the sources of fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate using Blanchard and Quah’s (1989) structural vector autoregression model. As nominal shocks can be created by exchange rate policies, a persistent impact of a nominal shock implies more room for exchange rate policies. Decomposition of the fluctuations into nominal and real shocks indicates that the impact of nominal shocks is small and quickly diminishes, implying that complementary sterilization is necessary for effective foreign exchange market interventions.

International Capital Flows and Monetary Policy Spillovers

This dissertation examines the drivers and implications of international capital flows. The overarching motivation is the observation that countries not at the centre of global financial markets are subject to considerable spillovers from centre countries, notably from their monetary policy. I present new empirical evidence on the determinants of the observed patterns of international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, and study their effect on both financial markets and the real economy. In Chapter 2 I provide evidence on the determinants of a puzzling negative correlation observed between productivity growth and net capital inflows to developing and emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1980. By disaggregating net capital inflows into their gross components, I show that this negative correlation is explained by capital outflows related to purchases of very liquid assets from the fastest growing countries. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast growing countries is driving much of the original puzzle. In the reminder of my dissertation I pivot to study the foreign characteristics that drive international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, with a particular focus on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the United States (U.S.). In Chapter 3 I show that a significant portion of the heterogeneity in EMEs' asset price adjustment following the quantitative easing operations by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) during 2008-2014 can be explained by the degree of bilateral capital market frictions between these countries and the U.S. This is true even after accounting for capital controls, exchange rate regimes, and domestic monetary policies. Chapter 4, co-authored with Michal Ksawery Popiel, studies unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy, looking specifically at the case of Canada since the global financial crisis. We quantify the effect Canadian unconventional monetary policy shocks had on the real economy, while carefully controlling for and quantifying spillovers from U.S. unconventional monetary policy. Our results indicate that the Bank of Canada's unconventional monetary policy increased Canadian output significantly from 2009-2010, but that spillovers from the Fed's policy were even more important for increasing Canadian output after 2008.

Essays on International Asset Allocation and Pricing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Essays on Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Currency Unions: Exploring the Role of Informality and Labor Mobility

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Carbon emissions locked - in trade

In recent years there has been a growing concern about the emission trade balance of countries. It is due to the fact that countries with an open economy are active players in the international trade, though trade is not only a major factor in forging a country’s economic structure anymore, but it does contribute to the movement of embodied emissions beyond the country borders. This issue is especially relevant from the carbon accounting policy’s point of view, as it is known that the production-based principle is in effect now in the Kyoto agreement. The study aims at revealing the interdependence of countries on international trade and its environmental impacts, and how the carbon accounting method plays a crucial role in evaluating a country’s environmental performance and its role in the climate mitigation processes. The input-output models are used in the methodology, as they provide an appropriate framework for this kind of environmental accounting; the analysis shows an international comparison of four European countries (Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Hungary) with extended trading activities and carbon emissions. Moving from the production-based approach in the climate policy, to the consumptionperspective principle and allocation [15], it would also help increasing the efficiency of emission reduction targets and the evaluation of the sustainability dimension and its impacts of international trade. The results of the study have shown that there is an importance of distinction between the two emission allocation approaches, both from global and local level point of view.

A Consumption-Based Approach to Carbon Emission Accounting – Sectoral Differences and Environmental Benefits

In recent years there has been growing concern about the emission trade balances of countries. This is due to the fact that countries with an open economy are active players in international trade. Trade is not only a major factor in forging a country’s economic structure, but contributes to the movement of embodied emissions beyond country borders. This issue is especially relevant from the carbon accounting policy and domestic production perspective, as it is known that the production-based principle is employed in the Kyoto agreement. The research described herein was designed to reveal the interdependence of countries on international trade and the corresponding embodied emissions both on national and on sectoral level and to illustrate the significance of the consumption-based emission accounting. It is presented here to what extent a consumption-based accounting would change the present system based on production-based accounting and allocation. The relationship of CO2 emission embodied in exports and embodied in imports is analysed here. International trade can blur the responsibility for the ecological effects of production and consumption and it can lengthen the link between consumption and its consequences. Input-output models are used in the methodology as they provide an appropriate framework for climate change accounting. The analysis comprises an international comparative study of four European countries (Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Hungary) with extended trading activities and carbon emissions. Moving from a production-based approach in climate policy to a consumption-based principle and allocation approach would help to increase the efficiency of emission reductions and would force countries to rethink their trading activities in order to decrease the environmental load of production activities. The results of this study show that it is important to distinguish between the two emission accounting approaches, both on the global and the local level.

The international impact of productivity shocks

Even though many studies have confirmed the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) finding that savings and investment rates are highly correlated, there is no consensus on the major reason for this correlation. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop theoretical models and calibrate and simulate these to compare their implications to explain the observed time-series comovement between savings and investment in an attempt to show that this high correlation may stem from technological shocks.^ The dissertation is comprised of three studies. The first two studies construct overlapping-generations, two-economy models of saving and investment under conditions of perfect international capital mobility. The second study differs from the first by endogenizing the labor supply. Employing simulations, the models are used to generate time-series for savings and investment. These are then compared with the actual data for specific economies. The models show that productivity shocks produce a high correlation between savings and investment. Further, while the model with exogenous labor supply displays monotonic adjustment, the economy with endogenous labor supply adjusts cyclically.^ The third model, on the other hand, constructs a general equilibrium model for a small open economy. The study is based on two important elements: adjustment costs in investment and endogenous, recursive time preferences. Again, the simulation results show that the model generates, at least in a significant part of the adjustment path, a positive correlation between domestic savings and investment in response to a supply shock. ^

Essays on exchange rate economics

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. ^ Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. ^ Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. ^ Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption. ^

Essays on Exchange Rate Economics

Exchange rate economics has achieved substantial development in the past few decades. Despite extensive research, a large number of unresolved problems remain in the exchange rate debate. This dissertation studied three puzzling issues aiming to improve our understanding of exchange rate behavior. Chapter Two used advanced econometric techniques to model and forecast exchange rate dynamics. Chapter Three and Chapter Four studied issues related to exchange rates using the theory of New Open Economy Macroeconomics. Chapter Two empirically examined the short-run forecastability of nominal exchange rates. It analyzed important empirical regularities in daily exchange rates. Through a series of hypothesis tests, a best-fitting fractionally integrated GARCH model with skewed student-t error distribution was identified. The forecasting performance of the model was compared with that of a random walk model. Results supported the contention that nominal exchange rates seem to be unpredictable over the short run in the sense that the best-fitting model cannot beat the random walk model in forecasting exchange rate movements. Chapter Three assessed the ability of dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price monetary models to generate volatile foreign exchange risk premia. It developed a tractable two-country model where agents face a cash-in-advance constraint and set prices to the local market; the exogenous money supply process exhibits time-varying volatility. The model yielded approximate closed form solutions for risk premia and real exchange rates. Numerical results provided quantitative evidence that volatile risk premia can endogenously arise in a new open economy macroeconomic model. Thus, the model had potential to rationalize the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle. Chapter Four sought to resolve the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly, which refers to the inability of most international macro models to generate negative cross-correlations between real exchange rates and relative consumption across two countries as observed in the data. While maintaining the assumption of complete asset markets, this chapter introduced endogenously segmented asset markets into a dynamic sticky-price monetary model. Simulation results showed that such a model could replicate the stylized fact that real exchange rates tend to move in an opposite direction with respect to relative consumption.