Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s

In the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1C in just 2 years. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments we show that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO, and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, we infer that the warming was partly caused by a surge, and subsequent decline, in the Meridional Overturning Circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. Our results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multi-annual timescales, and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions.

Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s

In the mid 1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) warmed rapidly, with sea surface temperatures (SST) increasing by 1°C in just a few years. By examining initialized hindcasts made with the UK Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys), it is shown that the warming could have been predicted. Conversely, hindcasts that only consider changes in radiative forcings are not able to capture the rapid warming. Heat budget analysis shows that the success of the DePreSys hindcasts is due to the initialization of anomalously strong northward ocean heat transport. Furthermore, it is found that initializing a strong Atlantic circulation, and in particular a strong Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is key for successful predictions. Finally, we show that DePreSys is able to predict significant changes in SST and other surface climate variables related to the North Atlantic warming.

Nonlinearity of ocean heat uptake during warming and cooling in the FAMOUS climate model

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to continue rising in the coming decades, but natural or artificial processes may eventually reduce it. We show that, in the FAMOUS atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, the reduction of ocean heat content as radiative forcing decreases is greater than would be expected from a linear model simulation of the response to the applied forcings. We relate this effect to the behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC): the ocean cools more efficiently with a strong AMOC. The AMOC weakens as CO2 rises, then strengthens as CO2 declines, but temporarily overshoots its original strength. This nonlinearity comes mainly from the accumulated advection of salt into the North Atlantic, which gives the system a longer memory. This implies that changes observed in response to different CO2 scenarios or from different initial states, such as from past changes, may not be a reliable basis for making projections.

The impact of ocean acidification and warming on the skeletal mechanical properties of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus from laboratory and field observations

Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is leading to changes in the carbonate chemistry and the temperature of the ocean. The impact of these processes on marine organisms will depend on their ability to cope with those changes, particularly the maintenance of calcium carbonate structures. Both a laboratory experiment (long-term exposure to decreased pH and increased temperature) and collections of individuals from natural environments characterized by low pH levels (individuals from intertidal pools and around a CO2 seep) were here coupled to comprehensively study the impact of near-future conditions of pH and temperature on the mechanical properties of the skeleton of the euechinoid sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. To assess skeletal mechanical properties, we characterized the fracture force, Young's modulus, second moment of area, material nanohardness, and specific Young's modulus of sea urchin test plates. None of these parameters were significantly affected by low pH and/or increased temperature in the laboratory experiment and by low pH only in the individuals chronically exposed to lowered pH from the CO2 seeps. In tidal pools, the fracture force was higher and the Young's modulus lower in ambital plates of individuals from the rock pool characterized by the largest pH variations but also a dominance of calcifying algae, which might explain some of the variation. Thus, decreases of pH to levels expected for 2100 did not directly alter the mechanical properties of the test of P. lividus. Since the maintenance of test integrity is a question of survival for sea urchins and since weakened tests would increase the sea urchins' risk of predation, our findings indicate that the decreasing seawater pH and increasing seawater temperature expected for the end of the century should not represent an immediate threat to sea urchins vulnerability

Colony-specific investigations reveal highly variable responses among individual corals to ocean acidification and warming

As anthropogenic climate change is an ongoing concern, scientific investigations on its impacts on coral reefs are increasing. Although impacts of combined ocean acidification (OA) and temperature stress (T) on reef-building scleractinian corals have been studied at the genus, species and population levels, there are little data available on how individual corals respond to combined OA and anomalous temperatures. In this study, we exposed individual colonies of Acropora digitifera, Montipora digitata and Porites cylindrica to four pCO2-temperature treatments including 400 µatm-28 °C, 400 µatm-31 °C, 1000 µatm-28 °C and 1000 µatm-31 °C for 26 days. Physiological parameters including calcification, protein content, maximum photosynthetic efficiency, Symbiodinium density, and chlorophyll content along with Symbiodinium type of each colony were examined. Along with intercolonial responses, responses of individual colonies versus pooled data to the treatments were investigated. The main results were: 1) responses to either OA or T or their combination were different between individual colonies when considering physiological functions; 2) tolerance to either OA or T was not synonymous with tolerance to the other parameter; 3) tolerance to both OA and T did not necessarily lead to tolerance of OA and T combined (OAT) at the same time; 4) OAT had negative, positive or no impacts on physiological functions of coral colonies; and 5) pooled data were not representative of responses of all individual colonies. Indeed, the pooled data obscured actual responses of individual colonies or presented a response that was not observed in any individual. From the results of this study we recommend improving experimental designs of studies investigating physiological responses of corals to climate change by complementing them with colony-specific examinations.

Impact of ocean acidification and warming on respiration, heart rate and acid-base status of Mytilus edulis from the North Sea

Anthropogenic climate change confronts marine organisms with rapid trends of concomitant warming and CO2 induced ocean acidification. The survival and distribution of species partly depend on their ability to exploit their physiological plasticity during acclimatization. Therefore, in laboratory studies the effects of simulated future ocean acidification on thermal tolerance, energy metabolism and acid-base regulation capacity of the North Sea population of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis were examined. Following one month of pre-acclimation to 10 °C and control CO2 levels, mussels were exposed for two weeks to control and projected oceanic CO2 levels (390, 750 and 1120 µatm) before being subjected to a stepwise warming protocol between 10 °C and 31 °C (+ 3 °C each night). Oxygen consumption and heart rates, anaerobic metabolite levels and haemolymph acid-base status were determined at each temperature. CO2 exposure left oxygen consumption rate unchanged at acclimation temperature but caused a somewhat stronger increase during acute warming and thus mildly higher Q10-values than seen in controls. Interestingly, the thermally induced limitation of oxygen consumption rate set in earlier in normocapnic than in hypercapnic (1120 µatm CO2) mussels (25.2 °C vs. 28.8 °C), likely due to an onset of metabolic depression in the control group following warming. However, the temperature induced increase in heart rate became limited above 25 °C in both groups indicating an unchanged pejus temperature regardless of CO2 treatment. An upper critical temperature was reached above 28 °C in both treatments indicated by the accumulation of anaerobic metabolites in the mantle tissue, paralleled by a strong increase in haemolymph PCO2 at 31 °C. Ocean acidification caused a decrease in haemolymph pH. The extracellular acidosis remained largely uncompensated despite some bicarbonate accumulation. In all treatments animals developed a progressive warming-induced extracellular acidosis. A stronger pH drop at around 25 °C was followed by stagnating heart rates. However, normocapnic mussels enhanced bicarbonate accumulation at the critical limit, a strategy no longer available to hypercapnic mussels. In conclusion, CO2 has small effects on the response patterns of mussels to warming, leaving thermal thresholds largely unaffected. High resilience of adult North Sea mussels to future ocean acidification indicates that sensitivity to thermal stress is more relevant in shaping the response to future climate change.

Gene expression profiling in gills of the great spider crab Hyas araneus in respond to ocean acidification and warming, supplementary data

Hypercapnia and elevated temperatures resulting from climate change may have adverse consequences for many marine organisms. While diverse physiological and ecological effects have been identified, changes in those molecular mechanisms, which shape the physiological phenotype of a species and limit its capacity to compensate, remain poorly understood. Here, we use global gene expression profiling through RNA-Sequencing to study the transcriptional responses to ocean acidification and warming in gills of the boreal spider crab Hyas araneus exposed medium-term (10 weeks) to intermediate (1,120 µatm) and high (1,960 µatm) PCO2 at different temperatures (5°C and 10°C). The analyses reveal shifts in steady state gene expression from control to intermediate and from intermediate to high CO2 exposures. At 5°C acid-base, energy metabolism and stress response related genes were upregulated at intermediate PCO2, whereas high PCO2 induced a relative reduction in expression to levels closer to controls. A similar pattern was found at elevated temperature (10°C). There was a strong coordination between acid-base, metabolic and stress-related processes. Hemolymph parameters at intermediate PCO2 indicate enhanced capacity in acid-base compensation potentially supported by upregulation of a V-ATPase. The likely enhanced energy demand might be met by the upregulation of the electron transport system (ETS), but may lead to increased oxidative stress reflected in upregulated antioxidant defense transcripts. These mechanisms were attenuated by high PCO2, possibly as a result of limited acid-base compensation and metabolic down-regulation. Our findings indicate a PCO2 dependent threshold beyond which compensation by acclimation fails progressively. They also indicate a limited ability of this stenoecious crustacean to compensate for the effects of ocean acidification with and without concomitant warming.

One size fits all: stability of metabolic scaling under warming and ocean acidification in echinoderms

Responses by marine species to ocean acidification (OA) have recently been shown to be modulated by external factors including temperature, food supply and salinity. However the role of a fundamental biological parameter relevant to all organisms, that of body size, in governing responses to multiple stressors has been almost entirely overlooked. Recent consensus suggests allometric scaling of metabolism with body size differs between species, the commonly cited 'universal' mass scaling exponent (b) of ¾ representing an average of exponents that naturally vary. One model, the Metabolic-Level Boundaries hypothesis, provides a testable prediction: that b will decrease within species under increasing temperature. However, no previous studies have examined how metabolic scaling may be directly affected by OA. We acclimated a wide body-mass range of three common NE Atlantic echinoderms (the sea star Asterias rubens, the brittlestars Ophiothrix fragilis and Amphiura filiformis) to two levels of pCO2 and three temperatures, and metabolic rates were determined using closed-chamber respirometry. The results show that contrary to some models these echinoderm species possess a notable degree of stability in metabolic scaling under different abiotic conditions; the mass scaling exponent (b) varied in value between species, but not within species under different conditions. Additionally, we found no effect of OA on metabolic rates in any species. These data suggest responses to abiotic stressors are not modulated by body size in these species, as reflected in the stability of the metabolic scaling relationship. Such equivalence in response across ontogenetic size ranges has important implications for the stability of ecological food webs.

Consumers mediate the effects of experimental ocean acidification and warming on primary producers

It is well known that ocean acidification can have profound impacts on marine organisms. However, we know little about the direct and indirect effects of ocean acidification and also how these effects interact with other features of environmental change such as warming and declining consumer pressure. In this study, we tested whether the presence of consumers (invertebrate mesograzers) influenced the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming on benthic microalgae in a seagrass community mesocosm experiment. Net effects of acidification and warming on benthic microalgal biomass and production, as assessed by analysis of variance, were relatively weak regardless of grazer presence. However, partitioning these net effects into direct and indirect effects using structural equation modeling revealed several strong relationships. In the absence of grazers, benthic microalgae were negatively and indirectly affected by sediment-associated microalgal grazers and macroalgal shading, but directly and positively affected by acidification and warming. Combining indirect and direct effects yielded no or weak net effects. In the presence of grazers, almost all direct and indirect climate effects were nonsignificant. Our analyses highlight that (i) indirect effects of climate change may be at least as strong as direct effects, (ii) grazers are crucial in mediating these effects, and (iii) effects of ocean acidification may be apparent only through indirect effects and in combination with other variables (e.g., warming). These findings highlight the importance of experimental designs and statistical analyses that allow us to separate and quantify the direct and indirect effects of multiple climate variables on natural communities.

Effects of Ocean Acidification and Warming on Sperm Activity and Early Life Stages of the Mediterranean Mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis)

Larval stages are among those most vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA). Projected atmospheric CO2 levels for the end of this century may lead to negative impacts on communities dominated by calcifying taxa with planktonic life stages. We exposed Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) sperm and early life stages to pHT levels of 8.0 (current pH) and 7.6 (2100 level) by manipulating pCO2 level (380 and 1000 ppm). Sperm activity was examined at ambient temperatures (16-17 °C) using individual males as replicates. We also assessed the effects of temperature (ambient and = 20 °C) and pH on larval size, survival, respiration and calcification of late trochophore/early D-veliger stages using a cross-factorial design. Increased pCO2 had a negative effect on the percentage of motile sperm (mean response ratio R= 71%) and sperm swimming speed (R= 74%), possibly indicating reduced fertilization capacity of sperm in low concentrations. Increased temperature had a more prominent effect on larval stages than pCO2, reducing performance (RSize = 90% and RSurvival = 70%) and increasing energy demand (RRespiration = 429%). We observed no significant interactions between pCO2 and temperature. Our results suggest that increasing temperature might have a larger impact on very early larval stages of M. galloprovincialis than OA at levels predicted for the end of the century.

Responses of the metabolism of the larvae of Pocillopora damicornis to ocean acidification and warming

Ocean acidification and warming are expected to threaten the persistence of tropical coral reef ecosystems. As coral reefs face multiple stressors, the distribution and abundance of corals will depend on the successful dispersal and settlement of coral larvae under changing environmental conditions. To explore this scenario, we used metabolic rate, at holobiont and molecular levels, as an index for assessing the physiological plasticity of Pocillopora damicornis larvae from this site to conditions of ocean acidity and warming. Larvae were incubated for 6 hours in seawater containing combinations of CO2 concentration (450 and 950 µatm) and temperature (28 and 30°C). Rates of larval oxygen consumption were higher at elevated temperatures. In contrast, high CO2 levels elicited depressed metabolic rates, especially for larvae released later in the spawning period. Rates of citrate synthase, a rate-limiting enzyme in aerobic metabolism, suggested a biochemical limit for increasing oxidative capacity in coral larvae in a warming, acidifying ocean. Biological responses were also compared between larvae released from adult colonies on the same day (cohorts). The metabolic physiology of Pocillopora damicornis larvae varied significantly by day of release. Additionally, we used environmental data collected on a reef in Moorea, French Polynesia to provide information about what adult corals and larvae may currently experience in the field. An autonomous pH sensor provided a continuous time series of pH on the natal fringing reef. In February/March, 2011, pH values averaged 8.075±0.023. Our results suggest that without adaptation or acclimatization, only a portion of naïve Pocillopora damicornis larvae may have suitable metabolic phenotypes for maintaining function and fitness in an end-of-the century ocean.

Effects of ocean acidification and global warming on reef bioerosion-lessons from a clionaid sponge

Coral reefs are under threat, exerted by a number of interacting effects inherent to the present climate change, including ocean acidification and global warming. Bioerosion drives reef degradation by recycling carbonate skeletal material and is an important but understudied factor in this context. Twelve different combinations of pCO2 and temperature were applied to elucidate the consequences of ocean acidification and global warming on the physiological response and bioerosion rates of the zooxanthellate sponge Cliona orientalis-one of the most abundant and effective bioeroders on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Our results confirm a significant amplification of the sponges' bioerosion capacity with increasing pCO2, which is expressed by more carbonate being chemically dissolved by etching. The health of the sponges and their photosymbionts was not affected by changes in pCO2, in contrast to temperature, which had significant negative impacts at higher levels. However, we could not conclusively explain the relationship between temperature and bioerosion rates, which were slightly reduced at both colder as well as warmer temperatures than ambient. The present findings on the effects of ocean acidification on chemical bioerosion, however, will have significant implications for predicting future reef carbonate budgets, as sponges often contribute the lion's share of internal bioerosion on coral reefs.

Assessing the physiological responses of the gastropod Crepidula fornicata to predicted ocean acidification and warming

Organisms inhabiting coastal waters naturally experience diel and seasonal physico-chemical variations. According to various assumptions, coastal species are either considered to be highly tolerant to environmental changes or, conversely, living at the thresholds of their physiological performance. Therefore, these species are either more resistant or more sensitive, respectively, to ocean acidification and warming. Here, we focused on Crepidula fornicata, an invasive gastropod that colonized bays and estuaries on northwestern European coasts during the 20th century. Small (<3 cm in length) and large (>4.5 cm in length), sexually mature individuals of C. fornicata were raised for 6 months in three different pCO2 conditions (390 µatm, 750 µatm, and 1400 µatm) at four successive temperature levels (10°C, 13°C, 16°C, and 19°C). At each temperature level and in each pCO2 condition, we assessed the physiological rates of respiration, ammonia excretion, filtration and calcification on small and large individuals. Results show that, in general, temperature positively influenced respiration, excretion and filtration rates in both small and large individuals. Conversely, increasing pCO2 negatively affected calcification rates, leading to net dissolution in the most drastic pCO2 condition (1400 µatm) but did not affect the other physiological rates. Overall, our results indicate that C. fornicata can tolerate ocean acidification, particularly in the intermediate pCO2 scenario. Moreover, in this eurythermal species, moderate warming may play a buffering role in the future responses of organisms to ocean acidification.