Determining the long-term changes in biodiversity and provisioning services along a transect from Central Europe to the Mediterranean

Climate, land use and fire are strong determinants of plant diversity, potentially resulting in local extinctions, including rare endemic and economically valuable species. While climate and land use are decisive for vegetation composition and thus the species pool, fire disturbance can lead to landscape fragmentation, affecting the provisioning of important ecosystem services such as timber and raw natural resources. We use multi-proxy palaeoecological data with high taxonomic and temporal resolution across an environmental gradient to assess the long-term impact of major climate shifts, land use and fire disturbance on past vegetation openness and plant diversity (evenness and richness). Evenness of taxa is inferred by calculating the probability of interspecific encounter (PIE) of pollen and spores and species richness by palynological richness (PRI). To account for evenness distortions of PRI, we developed a new palaeodiversity measure, which is evenness-detrended palynological richness (DE-PRI). Reconstructed species richness increases from north to south regardless of time, mirroring the biodiversity increase across the gradient from temperate deciduous to subtropical evergreen vegetation. Climatic changes after the end of the last ice age contributed to biodiversity dynamics, usually by promoting species richness and evenness in response to warming. The data reveal that the promotion of diverse open-land ecosystems increased when human disturbance became determinant, while forests became less diverse. Our results imply that the today’s biodiversity has been shaped by anthropogenic forcing over the millennia. Future management strategies aiming at a successful conservation of biodiversity should therefore consider the millennia-lasting role of anthropogenic fire and human activities.

The long-term stability of self-esteem: Its time-dependent decay and nonzero asymptote

How stable are individual differences in self-esteem? We examined the time-dependent decay of rank-order stability of self-esteem and tested whether stability asymptotically approaches zero or a nonzero value across long test–retest intervals. Analyses were based on 6 assessments across a 29-year period of a sample of 3,180 individuals aged 14 to 102 years. The results indicated that, as test–retest intervals increased, stability exponentially decayed and asymptotically approached a nonzero value (estimated as .43). The exponential decay function explained a large proportion of variance in observed stability coefficients, provided a better fit than alternative functions, and held across gender and for all age groups from adolescence to old age. Moreover, structural equation modeling of the individual-level data suggested that a perfectly stable trait component underlies stability of self-esteem. The findings suggest that the stability of self-esteem is relatively large, even across very long periods, and that self-esteem is a trait-like characteristic.

THE LONG-TERM GROWTH OF NORMAL HUMAN B CELLS

The feasibility of establishment of continuously proliferating growth factor-dependent human B lymphocytes was investigated. Normal B lymphocytes prepared from peripheral venous blood were stimulated with a variety of known polyclonal B cell activators, in the continuous presence of various cytokine preparations. Continuously proliferating growth factor-dependent B cell populations were obtained from cultures activated with either insoluble anti-IgM ((mu)-chain specific), soluble anti-IgM, heat-killed Staphylococcus aureus Cowen I (SAC), or dextran sulphate (DxS), in the continuous presence of exogenously added growth factor preparations containing either IL-1, IL-2 and BCGF, or BCGF alone. Although growth factor-dependent B cell lines were obtained via all three methods of activation, the correlation of mode of activation and growth factor preparation proved to be critical. B cell lines could not be established with anti-(mu) activation in the presence of only BCGF; however, B cell lines were successfully obtained with SAC or DxS activation from those cultures continuously replenished with only BCGF. These cultured B lymphocyte populations were routinely maintained in logarithmic-phase growth in the presence of exogenously added growth factor, and exhibited a population doubling time of approximately 36 hours. They were shown to specifically absorb BCGF, suggesting the presence of membrane receptors for it. Also, these cultured B cells have been utilized for the development of a microassay for the assessment of a M(,r) 12,000-14,000 B cell growth factor activity that is accurate, sensitive, and precise. The pronounced sensitivity of this bioassay beyond that of the conventional peripheral blood B cell assay has aided in the purification to homogeneity of natural product extracellular BCGF (EC-BCGF), and in the determination of the nucleotide sequence for a gene coding for a protein exhibiting BCGF activity. Additionally, these B cell lines specifically absorb, and proliferate in the presence of, an affinity-purified M(,r) 60,000 trypsin-sensitive intracellular protein derived from freshly isolated human T lymphocytes, providing evidence for a putative intracellular precursor of EC-BCGF, or a novel high molecular weight BCGF species. ^

The role of human-induced fire and sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivation on the long-term landscape dynamics of the southern Swiss Alps

Changes in fire occurrence during the last decades in the southern Swiss Alps make knowledge on fire history essential to understand future evolution of the ecosystem composition and functioning. In this context, palaeoecology provides useful insights into processes operating at decadal-to-millennial time scales, such as the response of plant communities to intensified fire disturbances during periods of cultural change. We provide a high-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen series from Guèr, a well-dated peat sequence at mid-elevation (832 m.a.s.l.) in southern Switzerland, where the presence of local settlements is documented since the late Bronze Age and the Iron Age. Quantitative fire reconstruction shows that fire activity sharply increased from the Neolithic period (1–3 episodes/1000 year) to the late Bronze and Iron Age (7–9 episodes/1000 year), leading to extensive clearance of the former mixed deciduous forest (Alnus glutinosa, Betula, deciduous Quercus). The increase in anthropogenic pollen indicators (e.g. Cerealia-type, Plantago lanceolata) together with macroscopic charcoal suggests anthropogenic rather than climatic forcing as the main cause of the observed vegetation shift. Fire and controlled burning were extensively used during the late Roman Times and early Middle Ages to promote the introduction and establishment of chestnut (Castanea sativa) stands, which provided an important wood and food supply. Fire occurrence declined markedly (from 9 to 5–6 episodes/1000 year) during late Middle Ages because of fire suppression, biomass removal by human population, and landscape fragmentation. Land-abandonment during the last decades allowed forest to partly re-expand (mainly Alnus glutinosa, Betula) and fire frequency to increase.

The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

Micronutrient Supplementation after Biliopancreatic Diversion with Duodenal Switch in the Long Term

Background Malabsorptive bariatric surgery requires lifelongmicronutrientsupplementation.Basedontherecommendations, we assessed the number of adjustments of micronutrientsupplementationandtheprevalenceofvitaminandmineral deficiencies at a minimum follow-up of 5 years after biliopancreatic diversion with duodenal switch (BPD-DS). Methods Between October 2010 and December 2013, a total of 51 patients at a minimum follow-up of 5 years after BPDDS were invited for a clinical check-up with a nutritional blood screening test for vitamins and minerals. Results Forty-three of fifty-one patients (84.3 %) completed the blood sampling with a median follow-up of 71.2 (range 60–102) monthsafter BPD-DS. At that time,all patientswere supplemented with at least one multivitamin. However, 35 patients (81.4 %) showed either a vitamin or a mineral deficiencyoracombinationofit.Nineteenpatients(44.1%)were anemic,and17patients(39.5%)hadanirondeficiency.High deficiency rates for fat-soluble vitamins were also present in 23.2 % for vitamin A, in 76.7 % for vitamin D, in 7.0 % for vitamin E, and in 11.6 % for vitamin K. Conclusions Theresultsofourstudyshowthattheprevalence ofvitaminandmineraldeficienciesafterBPD-DSis81.4%at a minimum follow-up of 5 years. The initial prescription of micronutrientsupplementationandfurtheradjustmentsduring thefirstfollow-upwereinsufficient toavoidlong-term micronutrient deficiencies. Life-long monitoring of micronutrients at a specialized bariatric center and possibly a better micronutrient supplementation, is crucial to avoid a deficient micronutrient status at every stage after malabsorptive bariatric surgery

The impact of Medicare, Medicaid and Schip Extension Act of 2007 (MMSEA) on the long term acute care hospitals

The Long Term Acute Care Hospitals (LTACH), which serve medically complex patients, have grown tremendously in recent years, by expanding the number of Medicare patient admissions and thus increasing Medicare expenditures (Stark 2004). In an attempt to mitigate the rapid growth of the LTACHs and reduce related Medicare expenditures, Congress enacted Section 114 of P.L. 110-173 (§114) of the Medicare, Medicaid and SCHIP Extension Act (MMSEA) in December 29, 2007 to regulate the LTCAHs industry. MMSEA increased the medical necessity reviews for Medicare admissions, imposed a moratorium on new LTCAHs, and allowed the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to recoup Medicare overpayments for unnecessary admissions. ^ This study examines whether MMSEA impacted LTACH admissions, operating margins and efficiency. These objectives were analyzed by comparing LTACH data for 2008 (post MMSEA) and data for 2006-2007 (pre-MMSEA). Secondary data were utilized from the American Hospital Association (AHA) database and the American Hospital Directory (AHD).^ This is a longitudinal retrospective study with a total sample of 55 LTACHs, selected from 396 LTACHs facilities that were fully operational during the study period of 2006-2008. The results of the research found no statistically significant change in total Medicare admissions; instead there was a small but not statistically significant reduction of 5% in Medicare admissions for 2008 in comparison to those for 2006. A statistically significant decrease in mean operating margins was confirmed between the years 2006 and 2008. The LTACHs' Technical Efficiency (TE), as computed by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), showed significant decrease in efficiency over the same period. Thirteen of the 55 LTACHs in the sample (24%) in 2006 were calculated as “efficient” utilizing the DEA analysis. This dropped to 13% (7/55) in 2008. Longitudinally, the decrease in efficiency using the DEA extension technique (Malmquist Index or MI) indicated a deterioration of 10% in efficiency over the same period. Interestingly, however, when the sample was stratified into high efficient versus low efficient subgroups (approximately 25% in each group), a comparison of the MIs suggested a significant improvement in Efficiency Change (EC) for the least efficient (MI 0.92022) and reduction in efficiency for the most efficient LTACHs (MI = 1.38761) over same period. While a reduction in efficiency for the most efficient is unexpected, it is not particularly surprising, since efficiency measure can vary over time. An improvement in efficiency, however, for the least efficient should be expected as those LTACHs begin to manage expenses (and controllable resources) more carefully to offset the payment/reimbursement pressures on their margins from MMSEA.^

In-utero exposure to chemotherapy: What are the long term effects?

There is not a large body of evidence on in-utero exposure to chemotherapy for pregnancy-associated cancers to help determine the long term effects on offspring. This study is a systematic review of long term follow-up to find evidence for adverse outcomes in exposed offspring. In order for studies to be eligible for this systematic review, they had to have a median follow up of at least 24 months with the resulting child. PubMed, Medline, and Scopus were the databases used, and we included all eligible articles, regardless of the date of publication. The search resulted in six articles meeting the eligibility requirements. The review of findings of these studies suggested that there is not enough evidence to make a determination of the risk of chemotherapy for the offspring. Exposed children in the sample of reviewed papers did have some medical conditions, but the rate and type did not differ from the non-exposed population. However, a limitation of this literature review is the very small sample size of publications on this important topic. This finding of few studies on this topic is an important result of this systematic review. More research and long term follow-up studies must be conducted to address this issue.^

Eruption of the Håkon Mosby mud volcano recorded by the long-term observatory on mud-volcano eruptions (LOOME) between 2009 and 2010

Submarine mud volcanoes are considered an important source of methane to the water column. However, the temporal variability of their fluid transport including mud and methane emissions is largely unknown. Assuming that this transport was continuous and at steady state, methane emissions were previously proposed to result from a dynamic equilibrium between upward migration and consumption at the seabed by methane-consuming microbes. Here we have investigated non-steady state situations of vigorous mud movements and their reflection in fluid flow, seabed temperature and bathymetry. Time series of pressure, temperature, pH and seafloor photography were collected by a benthic observatory (LOOME) for 431 days at the active Håkon Mosby mud volcano. These new data document eruptions, which were accompanied by pulses of hot subsurface fluids and triggered rapid sediment uplift and lateral movement, as well as emissions of free gas.

A new approach on the long term dynamics of neo's under Yarkorsky effect

To calculate the force associated with the Yarkovsky effect the temperature distribution on the surface of the asteroid should be determined; it depends on the asteroid orbit, size and shape, spin axis orientation and period, mass, density of surface layers, albedo, thermal conductivity, capacity and IR emissivity of the material. The uncertainty of many of these parameters invites to develop simplified methods to calculate the influence of the Yarkovsky effect on long term dynamics of asteroids. In this paper we present one of this method based in a special perturbation procedure developed in our group.

MOIRA-PLUS use in decision making on the long-term management of contaminated freshwater bodies and catchments

In the mid-long-term after a nuclear accident, the contamination of drinking water sources, fish and other aquatic foodstuffs, irrigation supplies and people?s exposure during recreational activities may create considerable public concern, even though dose assessment may in certain situations indicate lesser importance than for other sources, as clearly experienced in the aftermath of past accidents. In such circumstances there are a number of available countermeasure options, ranging from specific chemical treatment of lakes to bans on fish ingestion or on the use of water for crop irrigation. The potential actions can be broadly grouped into four main categories, chemical, biological, physical and social. In some cases a combination of actions may be the optimal strategy and a decision support system (DSS) like MOIRA-PLUS can be of great help to optimise a decision. A further option is of course not to take any remedial actions, although this may also have significant socio-economic repercussions which should be adequately evaluated. MOIRA-PLUS is designed to allow for a reliable assessment of the long-term evolution of the radiological situation and of feasible alternative rehabilitation strategies, including an objective evaluation of their social, economic and ecological impacts in a rational and comprehensive manner. MOIRA-PLUS also features a decision analysis methodology, making use of multi-attribute analysis, which can take into account the preferences and needs of different types of stakeholders. The main functions and elements of the system are described summarily. Also the conclusions from end-user?s experiences with the system are discussed, including exercises involving the organizations responsible for emergency management and the affected services, as well as different local and regional stakeholders. MOIRAPLUS has proven to be a mature system, user friendly and relatively easy to set up. It can help to better decisionmaking by enabling a realistic evaluation of the complete impacts of possible recovery strategies. Also, the interaction with stakeholders has allowed identifying improvements of the system that have been recently implemented.

Dynamic & Cyclic behaviour of ballast in the long term as determined in Cedex's track box

The 6 cylinder servo-hydraulic loading system of CEDEX's track box (250 kN, 50 Hz) has been recently implemented with a new piezoelectric loading system (±20 kN, 300 Hz) allowing the incorporation of low amplitude high frequency dynamic load time histories to the high amplitude low frequency quasi-static load time histories used so far in the CEDEX's track box to assess the inelastic long term behavior of ballast under mixed traffic in conventional and high- speed lines. This presentation will discuss the results obtained in the first long-duration test performed at CEDEX's track box using simultaneously both loading systems, to simulate the pass-by of 6000 freight vehicles (1M of 225 kN axle loads) travelling at a speed of 120 km/h over a line with vertical irregularities corresponding to a medium quality lin3e level. The superstructure of the track tested at full scale consisted of E 60 rails, stiff rail pads (mayor que 450 kN/mm), B90.2 sleepers with USP 0.10 N/mm and a 0.35 m thick ballast layer of ADIF first class. A shear wave velocity of 250 m/s can be assumed for the different layers of the track sub-base. The ballast long-term settlements will be compared with those obtained in a previous long-duration quasi- static test performed in the same track, for the RIVAS [EU co-funded] project, in which no dynamic loads where considered. Also, the results provided by a high diameter cyclic triaxial cell with ballast tested in full size will be commented. Finally, the progress made at CEDEX's Geotechnical Laboratory to reproduce numerically the long term behavior of ballast will be discussed.

Thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH)-directed induction of the CREM gene in the thyroid gland participates in the long-term desensitization of the TSH receptor.

Thyroid gland function is regulated by the hypothalamic-pituitary axis via the secretion of TSH, according to environmental, developmental, and circadian stimuli. TSH modulates both the secretion of thyroid hormone and gland trophism through interaction with a specific guanine nucleotide-binding protein-coupled receptor (TSH receptor; TSH-R), which elicits the activation of the cAMP-dependent signaling pathway. After TSH stimulation, the levels of TSH-R RNA are known to decrease dramatically within a few hours. This phenomenon ultimately leads to homologous long-term desensitization of the TSH-R. Here we show that TSH drives the induction of the inducible cAMP early repressor (ICER) isoform of the cAMP response element (CRE) modulator gene both in rat thyroid gland and in the differentiated thyroid cell line FRTL-5. The kinetics of ICER protein induction mirrors the down-regulation of TSH-R mRNA. ICER binds to a CRE-like sequence in the TSH-R promoter and represses its expression. Thus, ICER induction by TSH in the thyroid gland represents a paradigm of the molecular mechanism by which pituitary hormones elicit homologous long-term desensitization.