The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Satisfaction in choice as a function of the number of alternatives: When "goods satiate" but "bads escalate"

Whereas people are typically thought to be better off with more choices, studiesshow that they often prefer to choose from small as opposed to large sets of alternatives.We propose that satisfaction from choice is an inverted U-shaped function of thenumber of alternatives. This proposition is derived theoretically by considering thebenefits and costs of different numbers of alternatives and is supported by fourexperimental studies. We also manipulate the perceptual costs of information processingand demonstrate how this affects the resulting satisfaction function. We furtherindicate that satisfaction when choosing from a given set is diminished if people aremade aware of the existence of other choice sets. The role of individual differences insatisfaction from choice is documented by noting effects due to gender and culture. Weconclude by emphasizing the need to have an explicit rationale for knowing how muchchoice is enough.

An estimate of the potential number of mayfly species (Ephemeroptera, Insecta) still to be described in Brazil

ABSTRACTThis study reviewed the data on the Brazilian Ephemeroptera, based on the studies published before July, 2013, estimated the number of species still to be described, and identified which regions of the country have been the subject of least research. More than half the species are known from the description of only one developmental stage, with imagoes being described more frequently than nymphs. The Brazilian Northeast is the region with the weakest database. Body size affected description rates, with a strong tendency for the larger species to be described first. The estimated number of unknown Brazilian species was accentuated by the fact that so few species have been described so far. The steep slope of the asymptote and the considerable confidence interval of the estimate reinforce the conclusion that a large number of species are still to be described. This emphasizes the need for investments in the training of specialists in systematics and ecology for all regions of Brazil to correct these deficiencies, given the role of published papers as a primary source of information, and the fundamental importance of taxonomic knowledge for the development of effective measures for the conservation of ephemeropteran and the aquatic ecosystems they depend on.

CD34/QBEND10 immunostaining in bone marrow biopsies: an additional parameter for the diagnosis and classification of myelodysplastic syndromes.

CD34/QBEND10 immunostaining has been assessed in 150 bone marrow biopsies (BMB) including 91 myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), 16 MDS-related AML, 25 reactive BMB, and 18 cases where RA could neither be established nor ruled out. All cases were reviewed and classified according to the clinical and morphological FAB criteria. The percentage of CD34-positive (CD34 +) hematopoietic cells and the number of clusters of CD34+ cells in 10 HPF were determined. In most cases the CD34+ cell count was similar to the blast percentage determined morphologically. In RA, however, not only typical blasts but also less immature hemopoietic cells lying morphologically between blasts and promyelocytes were stained with CD34. The CD34+ cell count and cluster values were significantly higher in RA than in BMB with reactive changes (p<0.0001 for both), in RAEB than in RA (p=0.0006 and p=0.0189, respectively), in RAEBt than in RAEB (p=0.0001 and p=0.0038), and in MDS-AML than in RAEBt (p<0.0001 and p=0.0007). Presence of CD34+ cell clusters in RA correlated with increased risk of progression of the disease. We conclude that CD34 immunostaining in BMB is a useful tool for distinguishing RA from other anemias, assessing blast percentage in MDS cases, classifying them according to FAB, and following their evolution.

A step beyond--the relevance of depressed mood and mastery in the interplay between the number of social roles and alcohol use.

OBJECTIVES: The present study examines whether depressed mood and external control mediate or moderate the relationship between the number of social roles and alcohol use. PARTICIPANTS: The analysis was based on a national representative sample of 25- to 45-year-old male and female drinkers in Switzerland. METHOD: The influence of depressed mood and external control on the relationship between the number of social roles (parenthood, partnership, employment) and alcohol use was examined in linear structural equation models (mediation) and in multiple regressions (moderation) stratified by gender. All analyses were adjusted for age and education level. RESULTS: Holding more roles was associated with lower alcohol use, lower external control and lower depressed mood. The study did not find evidence of depressed mood or external control mediating the social roles-alcohol relationship. A moderation effect was identified among women only, whereby a protective effect of having more roles could not be found among those who scored high on external control. In general, a stronger link was observed between roles and alcohol use, while depressed mood and external control acted independently on drinking. With the exception of women with high external control, the study found no link between a higher number of social roles and greater alcohol use. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that drinking behaviours are more strongly linked to external control and depressed mood than they are to the number of social roles. The study also demonstrates that in any effective alcohol prevention policy, societal actions that enable individuals to combine more social roles play a central role.

BIO-INSPIRED COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO THE CLUSTERING AND VISUALIZATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL GEOSPATIAL DATA

The coverage and volume of geo-referenced datasets are extensive and incessantly¦growing. The systematic capture of geo-referenced information generates large volumes¦of spatio-temporal data to be analyzed. Clustering and visualization play a key¦role in the exploratory data analysis and the extraction of knowledge embedded in¦these data. However, new challenges in visualization and clustering are posed when¦dealing with the special characteristics of this data. For instance, its complex structures,¦large quantity of samples, variables involved in a temporal context, high dimensionality¦and large variability in cluster shapes.¦The central aim of my thesis is to propose new algorithms and methodologies for¦clustering and visualization, in order to assist the knowledge extraction from spatiotemporal¦geo-referenced data, thus improving making decision processes.¦I present two original algorithms, one for clustering: the Fuzzy Growing Hierarchical¦Self-Organizing Networks (FGHSON), and the second for exploratory visual data analysis:¦the Tree-structured Self-organizing Maps Component Planes. In addition, I present¦methodologies that combined with FGHSON and the Tree-structured SOM Component¦Planes allow the integration of space and time seamlessly and simultaneously in¦order to extract knowledge embedded in a temporal context.¦The originality of the FGHSON lies in its capability to reflect the underlying structure¦of a dataset in a hierarchical fuzzy way. A hierarchical fuzzy representation of¦clusters is crucial when data include complex structures with large variability of cluster¦shapes, variances, densities and number of clusters. The most important characteristics¦of the FGHSON include: (1) It does not require an a-priori setup of the number¦of clusters. (2) The algorithm executes several self-organizing processes in parallel.¦Hence, when dealing with large datasets the processes can be distributed reducing the¦computational cost. (3) Only three parameters are necessary to set up the algorithm.¦In the case of the Tree-structured SOM Component Planes, the novelty of this algorithm¦lies in its ability to create a structure that allows the visual exploratory data analysis¦of large high-dimensional datasets. This algorithm creates a hierarchical structure¦of Self-Organizing Map Component Planes, arranging similar variables' projections in¦the same branches of the tree. Hence, similarities on variables' behavior can be easily¦detected (e.g. local correlations, maximal and minimal values and outliers).¦Both FGHSON and the Tree-structured SOM Component Planes were applied in¦several agroecological problems proving to be very efficient in the exploratory analysis¦and clustering of spatio-temporal datasets.¦In this thesis I also tested three soft competitive learning algorithms. Two of them¦well-known non supervised soft competitive algorithms, namely the Self-Organizing¦Maps (SOMs) and the Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Maps (GHSOMs); and the¦third was our original contribution, the FGHSON. Although the algorithms presented¦here have been used in several areas, to my knowledge there is not any work applying¦and comparing the performance of those techniques when dealing with spatiotemporal¦geospatial data, as it is presented in this thesis.¦I propose original methodologies to explore spatio-temporal geo-referenced datasets¦through time. Our approach uses time windows to capture temporal similarities and¦variations by using the FGHSON clustering algorithm. The developed methodologies¦are used in two case studies. In the first, the objective was to find similar agroecozones¦through time and in the second one it was to find similar environmental patterns¦shifted in time.¦Several results presented in this thesis have led to new contributions to agroecological¦knowledge, for instance, in sugar cane, and blackberry production.¦Finally, in the framework of this thesis we developed several software tools: (1)¦a Matlab toolbox that implements the FGHSON algorithm, and (2) a program called¦BIS (Bio-inspired Identification of Similar agroecozones) an interactive graphical user¦interface tool which integrates the FGHSON algorithm with Google Earth in order to¦show zones with similar agroecological characteristics.

Prominent use of distal 5' transcription start sites and discovery of a large number of additional exons in ENCODE regions.

This report presents systematic empirical annotation of transcript products from 399 annotated protein-coding loci across the 1% of the human genome targeted by the Encyclopedia of DNA elements (ENCODE) pilot project using a combination of 5' rapid amplification of cDNA ends (RACE) and high-density resolution tiling arrays. We identified previously unannotated and often tissue- or cell-line-specific transcribed fragments (RACEfrags), both 5' distal to the annotated 5' terminus and internal to the annotated gene bounds for the vast majority (81.5%) of the tested genes. Half of the distal RACEfrags span large segments of genomic sequences away from the main portion of the coding transcript and often overlap with the upstream-annotated gene(s). Notably, at least 20% of the resultant novel transcripts have changes in their open reading frames (ORFs), most of them fusing ORFs of adjacent transcripts. A significant fraction of distal RACEfrags show expression levels comparable to those of known exons of the same locus, suggesting that they are not part of very minority splice forms. These results have significant implications concerning (1) our current understanding of the architecture of protein-coding genes; (2) our views on locations of regulatory regions in the genome; and (3) the interpretation of sequence polymorphisms mapping to regions hitherto considered to be "noncoding," ultimately relating to the identification of disease-related sequence alterations.

Spatial correlations and cross sections of clusters in the A + B -> 0 reaction

We consider the distribution of cross sections of clusters and the density-density correlation functions for the A+B¿0 reaction. We solve the reaction-diffusion equations numerically for random initial distributions of reactants. When both reactant species have the same diffusion coefficients the distribution of cross sections and the correlation functions scale with the diffusion length and obey superuniversal laws (independent of dimension). For different diffusion coefficients the correlation functions still scale, but the scaling functions depend on the dimension and on the diffusion coefficients. Furthermore, we display explicitly the peculiarities of the cluster-size distribution in one dimension.

Spatial correlations and cross sections of clusters in the A + B -> 0 reaction

We consider the distribution of cross sections of clusters and the density-density correlation functions for the A+B¿0 reaction. We solve the reaction-diffusion equations numerically for random initial distributions of reactants. When both reactant species have the same diffusion coefficients the distribution of cross sections and the correlation functions scale with the diffusion length and obey superuniversal laws (independent of dimension). For different diffusion coefficients the correlation functions still scale, but the scaling functions depend on the dimension and on the diffusion coefficients. Furthermore, we display explicitly the peculiarities of the cluster-size distribution in one dimension.

Number of Inmates with Life Sentences Leveling Off, April 2013, Corrections, Department of

For over three decades, the number of Iowa inmates with life sentences has shown a steady increase. As the chart below shows, that number has risen from 111 in 1980 to 680 in 2012 (data for 1987 is unavailable due to transitioning to new data systems)

The number of Toll-like receptor 9-agonist motifs in the adenovirus genome correlates with induction of dendritic cell maturation by adenovirus immune complexes.

Adenovirus serotype 5 (Ad5) vectors and specific neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) generate immune complexes (ICs) which are potent inducers of dendritic cell (DC) maturation. Here we show that ICs generated with rare Ad vector serotypes, such as Ad26 and Ad35, which are lead candidates in HIV vaccine development, are poor inducers of DC maturation and that their potency in inducing DC maturation strongly correlated with the number of Toll-like receptor 9 (TLR9)-agonist motifs present in the Ad vector's genome. In addition, we showed that antihexon but not antifiber antibodies are responsible for the induction of Ad IC-mediated DC maturation.

Changes in volume, surface estimate, three-dimensional shape and total number of neurons of the human primary visual cortex from midgestation until old age.

Macroscopic features such as volume, surface estimate, thickness and caudorostral length of the human primary visual cortex (Brodman's area 17) of 46 human brains between midgestation and 93 years were studied by means of camera lucida drawings from serial frontal sections. Individual values were best fitted by a logistic function from midgestation to adulthood and by a regression line between adulthood and old age. Allometric functions were calculated to study developmental relationships between all the features. The three-dimensional shape of area 17 was also reconstructed from the serial sections in 15 cases and correlated with the sequence of morphological events. The sulcal pattern of area 17 begins to develop around 21 weeks of gestation but remains rather simple until birth, while it becomes more convoluted, particularly in the caudal part, during the postnatal period. Until birth, a large increase in cortical thickness (about 83% of its mean adult value) and caudorostral length (69%) produces a moderate increase in cortical volume (31%) and surface estimate (40%) of area 17. After birth, the cortical volume and surface undergo their maximum growth rate, in spite of a rather small increase in cortical thickness and caudorostral length. This is due to the development of the pattern of gyrification within and around the calcarine fissure. All macroscopic features have reached the mean adult value by the end of the first postnatal year. With aging, the only features to undergo significant regression are the cortical surface estimate and the caudorostral length. The total number of neurons in area 17 shows great interindividual variability at all ages. No decrease in the postnatal period or in aging could be demonstrated.

A novel approach to reducing number of sensing units for wearable gait analysis systems.

Gait analysis methods to estimate spatiotemporal measures, based on two, three or four gyroscopes attached on lower limbs have been discussed in the literature. The most common approach to reduce the number of sensing units is to simplify the underlying biomechanical gait model. In this study, we propose a novel method based on prediction of movements of thighs from movements of shanks. Datasets from three previous studies were used. Data from the first study (ten healthy subjects and ten with Parkinson's disease) were used to develop and calibrate a system with only two gyroscopes attached on shanks. Data from two other studies (36 subjects with hip replacement, seven subjects with coxarthrosis, and eight control subjects) were used for comparison with the other methods and for assessment of error compared to a motion capture system. Results show that the error of estimation of stride length compared to motion capture with the system with four gyroscopes and our new method based on two gyroscopes was close ( -0.8 ±6.6 versus 3.8 ±6.6 cm). An alternative with three sensing units did not show better results (error: -0.2 ±8.4 cm). Finally, a fourth that also used two units but with a simpler gait model had the highest bias compared to the reference (error: -25.6 ±7.6 cm). We concluded that it is feasible to estimate movements of thighs from movements of shanks to reduce number of needed sensing units from 4 to 2 in context of ambulatory gait analysis.