The winds of change? Exploring political effects of Hurricane Andrew

Before dawn on August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew smashed into south Florida, particularly southern Dade County, and soon become the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. Andrew's impacts quickly overwhelmed local and state emergency response capabilities and eventually required major federal assistance, including regular military units. While the social and economic impacts of Hurricane Andrew are relatively well researched, much less attention has been given to its possible political effects. ^ Focusing on incumbent officeholders at three levels (municipal, state legislative, and statewide) who stood for reelection after Hurricane Andrew, this study seeks to determine whether they experienced any political effects from Andrew. That is, this study explores the possible interaction between the famous “incumbency advantage” and an “extreme event,” in this case a natural disaster. The specific foci were (1) campaigns and campaigning (a research process that included 43 personal interviews), and (2) election results before and after the event. ^ Given well-documented response problems, the working hypothesis was that incumbents experienced largely negative political fallout from the disaster. The null hypothesis was that incumbents saw no net political effects, but the reverse hypothesis was also considered: incumbents benefited politically from the event. ^ In the end, this study found that although the election process was physically disrupted, especially in south Dade County, the disaster largely reinforced the incumbency advantage. More specifically, the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew allowed most incumbent officeholders to (1) enhance constituency service, (2) associate themselves with the flow of external assistance, (3) achieve major personal visibility and media coverage, and yet (4) appear non-political or at least above normal politics. Overall, this combination allowed incumbents to very effectively “campaign without campaigning,” a point borne out by post-Andrew election results. ^

Japan in Crisis- an FIU Teach-In

Panel discussion on the subject of the March 2011 earthquake disaster in Japan featuring the following speakers: Steven Heine, Associate Director, SIPA; Director, Asian Studies Institute Dean Whitman, Associate Professor, Department fo Earth and Environment Richard Olson, Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations Joerg Reinhold, Associate Professor, Department of Physics Paul Kowert, Associate Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations Matthew Marr, Assistant Professor, Department of Global and Sociocultural Studies Pallab Mozumder, Assistant Professor, Department of Earth and Environment and Department of Economics Discussion was held at the Graham Center Ballroom of the Modesto A. Maidique Campus

Household Preferences for Financing Hurricane Risk Mitigation: A Survey Based Empirical Analysis

After a series of major storms over the last 20 years, the state of financing for U.S. natural disaster insurance has undergone substantial disruptions causing many federal and state backed programs against residential property damage to become severally underfunded. In order to regain actuarial soundness, policy makers have proposed a shift to a system that reflects risk-based pricing for property insurance. We examine survey responses from 1394 single-family homeowners in the state of Florida for support of several natural disaster mitigation policy reforms. Utilizing a partial proportional odds model we test for effects of location, risk perception, socio-economic and housing characteristics on support for policy reforms. Our findings suggest residents across the state, not just risk-prone homeowners, support the current subsidized model. We also examine several other policy questions from the survey to verify our initial results. Finally, the implications of our findings are discussed to provide inputs to policymakers.

Semi-engineered earthquake-resistant structures: one-storey buildings built up with gabion-box walls

This thesis studies the static and seismic behavior of simple structures made with gabion box walls. The analysis was performed considering a one-story building with standard dimensions in plan (6m x 5m) and a lightweight timber roof. The main focus of the present investigation is to find the principals aspects of the seismic behavior of a one story building made with gabion box walls, in order to prevent a failure due to seismic actions and in this way help to reduce the seismic risk of developing countries where this natural disaster have a significant intensity. Regarding the gabion box wall, it has been performed some calculations and analysis in order to understand the static and dynamic behavior. From the static point of view, it has been performed a verification of the normal stress computing the normal stress that arrives at the base of the gabion wall and the corresponding capacity of the ground. Moreover, regarding the seismic analysis, it has been studied the in-plane and out-of-plane behavior. The most critical aspect was discovered to be the out-of-plane behavior, for which have been developed models considering the “rigid- no tension model” for masonry, finding a kinematically admissible multiplier that will create a collapse mechanism for the structure. Furthermore, it has been performed a FEM and DEM models to find the maximum displacement at the center of the wall, maximum tension stresses needed for calculating the steel connectors for joining consecutive gabions and the dimensions (length of the wall and distance between orthogonal walls or buttresses) of a geometrical configuration for the standard modulus of the structure, in order to ensure an adequate safety margin for earthquakes with a PGA around 0.4-0.5g. Using the results obtained before, it has been created some rules of thumb, that have to be satisfy in order to ensure a good behavior of these structure.

Lessons from the 2015 earthquake(s) in Nepal: implication for rehabilitation.

PURPOSE: There has been an increase in the number of natural disasters in recent history, and the rate of disability is increasing among survivors. The most recent major natural disaster was the earthquake(s) that occurred in Nepal on 25 April 2015 and 12 May 2015. In total, more than 8500 people were killed and over 18,500 people were left injured. This article aims to demonstrate the role of rehabilitation professionals in post-disaster relief and beyond in Nepal. METHOD: This is an experiential account of physiotherapists present during the earthquake and participating in the post-disaster relief. RESULTS: Rehabilitation professionals played an important role in the acute phase post-disaster by providing essential services and equipment. However, discharge planning emerged as an important role for rehabilitation providers in the early days of post-disaster and signaled a relatively new and innovative function that facilitated the heavy imbalance between little supply and tremendous demand for care. In the coming years, rehabilitation will need to support local initiatives that focus on minimizing the long-term effects among people with a newly acquired disability. CONCLUSIONS: Rehabilitation serves an important role across the continuum in post-disaster relief from the initial stages to the months and years following an event. IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATION: Driven by medical advances in acute field medicine, the relative proportion of casualties following natural disasters is decreasing, while relative rates of disability are rising among survivors. In post-disaster settings, the growing number of people with newly acquired disabilities will be added to the existing proportion of the population who lived with disabilities, creating a significant growth in the total number of people with disabilities (PWDs) in communities that are often ill prepared to provide necessary services. Rehabilitation interventions in the initial stages of emergency humanitarian response can minimize the long-term effects among people with newly acquired disabilities through early activation and prevention of secondary effects. Rehabilitation providers thus appear to have an important mediating effect on outcomes of disabilities in the early stages, but must also be strong partners with PWDs to advocate for social and political change in the long term.

A Study of How Economic Attitudes Are Shaped by Environmental Shocks and Life Experiences

Social attitudes, attitudes toward financial risk and attitudes toward deferred gratification are thought to influence many important economic decisions over the life-course. In economic theory, these attitudes are key components in diverse models of behavior, including collective action, saving and investment decisions and occupational choice. The relevance of these attitudes have been confirmed empirically. Yet, the factors that influence them are not well understood. This research evaluates how these attitudes are affected by large disruptive events, namely, a natural disaster and a civil conflict, and also by an individual-specific life event, namely, having children.

By implementing rigorous empirical strategies drawing on rich longitudinal datasets, this research project advances our understanding of how life experiences shape these attitudes. Moreover, compelling evidence is provided that the observed changes in attitudes are likely to reflect changes in preferences given that they are not driven just by changes in financial circumstances. Therefore the findings of this research project also contribute to the discussion of whether preferences are really fixed, a usual assumption in economics.

In the first chapter, I study how altruistic and trusting attitudes are affected by exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as long as ten years after the disaster occurred. Establishing a causal relationship between natural disasters and attitudes presents several challenges as endogenous exposure and sample selection can confound the analysis. I take on these challenges by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the tsunami and by relying on a longitudinal dataset representative of the pre-tsunami population in two districts of Aceh, Indonesia. The sample is drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR), a survey with data collected both before and after the disaster and especially designed to identify the impact of the tsunami. The altruistic and trusting attitudes of the respondents are measured by their behavior in the dictator and trust games. I find that witnessing closely the damage caused by the tsunami but without suffering severe economic damage oneself increases altruistic and trusting behavior, particularly towards individuals from tsunami affected communities. Having suffered severe economic damage has no impact on altruistic behavior but may have increased trusting behavior. These effects do not seem to be caused by the consequences of the tsunami on people’s financial situation. Instead they are consistent with how experiences of loss and solidarity may have shaped social attitudes by affecting empathy and perceptions of who is deserving of aid and trust.

In the second chapter, co-authored with Ryan Brown, Duncan Thomas and Andrea Velasquez, we investigate how attitudes toward financial risk are affected by elevated levels of insecurity and uncertainty brought on by the Mexican Drug War. To conduct our analysis, we pair the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), a rich longitudinal dataset ideally suited for our purposes, with a dataset on homicide rates at the month and municipality-level. The homicide rates capture well the overall crime environment created by the drug war. The MxFLS elicits risk attitudes by asking respondents to choose between hypothetical gambles with different payoffs. Our strategy to identify a causal effect has two key components. First, we implement an individual fixed effects strategy which allows us to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity. The remaining time variant heterogeneity is unlikely to be correlated with changes in the local crime environment given the well-documented political origins of the Mexican Drug War. We also show supporting evidence in this regard. The second component of our identification strategy is to use an intent-to-treat approach to shield our estimates from endogenous migration. Our findings indicate that exposure to greater local-area violent crime results in increased risk aversion. This effect is not driven by changes in financial circumstances, but may be explained instead by heightened fear of victimization. Nonetheless, we find that having greater economic resources mitigate the impact. This may be due to individuals with greater economic resources being able to avoid crime by affording better transportation or security at work.

The third chapter, co-authored with Duncan Thomas, evaluates whether attitudes toward deferred gratification change after having children. For this study we also exploit the MxFLS, which elicits attitudes toward deferred gratification (commonly known as time discounting) by asking individuals to choose between hypothetical payments at different points in time. We implement a difference-in-difference estimator to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity and show that our results are robust to the inclusion of time varying characteristics likely correlated with child birth. We find that becoming a mother increases time discounting especially in the first two years after childbirth and in particular for those women without a spouse at home. Having additional children does not have an effect and the effect for men seems to go in the opposite direction. These heterogeneous effects suggest that child rearing may affect time discounting due to generated stress or not fully anticipated spending needs.

Position measurements at five permanent GPS stations in the Bavarian Alps as part of the Geodetic Alpine Integrated Network (GAIN) of the ALPS-GPSQUAKENET project

In the frame of the transnational ALPS-GPSQUAKENET project, a component of the Alpine Space Programme of the European Community Initiative Programme (CIP) INTERREG III B, the Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut (DGFI) in Munich, Germany, installed in 2005 five continuously operating permanent GPS stations located along the northern Alps boundary in Bavaria. The main objective of the ALPS-GPSQUAKENET project was to build-up a high-performance transnational space geodetic network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers in the Alpine region (the so-called Geodetic Alpine Integrated Network, GAIN). Data from this network allows for studying crustal deformations in near real-time to monitor Earthquake hazard and improve natural disaster prevention. The five GPS stations operatied by DGFI are mounted on concrete pillars attached to solid rock. The names of the stations are (from west to east) Hochgrat (HGRA), Breitenberg (BREI), Fahrenberg (FAHR), Hochries (HRIE) and Wartsteinkopf (WART). The provided data series start from October 7, 2005. Data are stored with a temporal spacing of 15 seconds in daily RINEX files.

“I am in a constant state of insecurity trying to make ends meet, like our service users”: Shared austerity reality between social workers and service users: Towards a preliminary conceptualization

This article introduces the concept of an emerging shared austerity reality, which refers to the socio-economic context of austerity that is shared both by social workers and service users, albeit to different degrees. Traditionally, the concept of the shared reality has been utilized to encompass the experiences of welfare professionals working in situations where both they and service users are exposed to the adverse effects of a natural disaster, war or terrorist attack. Here, the concept of shared reality is expanded through the introduction of the context of austerity. Drawing on 21 in-depth interviews with public sector social work practitioners in Greece it discusses, among other things, social anxieties about their children’s future, and their inability to take care of their elderly relatives that suggest an emerging shared austerity reality, reflecting the deterioration of socio-economic conditions. The paper ends with a discussion about the possibilities of alliance and division that emerge from the concept and future research directions. Moreover, it concludes with a reflection on the role of the social work profession and recent political developments in Greece in anti-austerity struggles.

Resilience and the cultural landscape : the case of the Lower Ninth Ward after Hurricane Katrina

Le but de cette recherche est d’évaluer l’importance du paysage culturel dans la résilience des communautés urbaines post-catastrophes. Ce travail se concentre sur le quartier du Lower Ninth Ward dans la ville de La Nouvelle-Orléans (États-Unis) après le passage de l’ouragan Katrina en 2005. Les catastrophes naturelles prennent une envergure et causent des dommages considérables lorsqu’elles touchent des villes. La reconstruction post -désastre est donc très dispendieuse pour les villes et les gouvernements, d’autant que certaines régions sont dévastées au point qu’elles doivent être reconstruites au complet. Cependant, le coût le plus lourd à assumer reste celui en vies humaines et si rebâtir les éléments concrets d’une ville est une tâche difficile à entreprendre, reconstruire une communauté est considérablement plus complexe. Dans le but de comprendre une telle démarche, cette recherche se concentre sur les éléments intangibles, comme l’attachement au lieu et les réseaux sociaux, dont une communauté a besoin pour se reconstituer de façon durable et résiliente. Le concept de résilience est très contesté dans la littérature et plusieurs chercheurs se sont essayés à le mesurer. Cette recherche adopte une perspective critique sur le concept et le revisite d’un point de vue holistique pour mettre en lumière sa complexité. Cette démarche permet de remettre en question l’importance de mesurer un concept finalement en perpétuelle redéfinition dans le temps et selon les échelles géographiques. De plus, en établissant une relation entre résilience et paysage culturel, il a été possible de mieux comprendre la complexité de la résilience. Touchant à plusieurs disciplines (architecture de paysage, urbanisme et sociologie), cette recherche utilise une méthodologie qui reflète son aspect multidisciplinaire : les méthodes mixtes. Ces dernières permettent la collecte de données quantitatives et qualitatives qui produisent une vue globale de la situation post-Katrina à travers le regroupement de recensions statistiques, d’observations de terrain et d’articles de journaux. Parallèlement, des entretiens ont été réalisés avec des résidents du quartier ainsi qu’avec des professionnels pour mieux comprendre les différents points de vue. Cette méthodologie a permis de produire des résultats au niveau du cas d’étude autant qu’au niveau théorique. La recherche valide l’importance de prendre en compte le paysage culturel dans les situations post-catastrophes, (en particulier) dans la mesure où il s’agit d’un élément souvent négligé par les urbanistes et les acteurs locaux. En effet, les éléments constitutifs du paysage culturel tels que l’attachement au lieu et les réseaux sociaux, participent d’un sentiment d'appartenance (« home ») et d’une volonté, pour les résidents, de reconstruire leurs habitations, leur communauté ainsi que leur quartier. Toutefois, il faut reconnaître que ces éléments ne suffisent pas à retrouver ce qu’ils ont perdu. Ainsi, l’étude du paysage culturel permet non seulement de mieux comprendre la complexité de la résilience, mais démontre également que cette dernière est une construction sociale.

Simplified design method for energy dissipating devices in retrofitting of seismically isolated bridges

Abstract: Highway bridges have great values in a country because in case of any natural disaster they may serve as lines to save people’s lives. Being vulnerable under significant seismic loads, different methods can be considered to design resistant highway bridges and rehabilitate the existing ones. In this study, base isolation has been considered as one efficient method in this regards which in some cases reduces significantly the seismic load effects on the structure. By reducing the ductility demand on the structure without a notable increase of strength, the structure is designed to remain elastic under seismic loads. The problem associated with the isolated bridges, especially with elastomeric bearings, can be their excessive displacements under service and seismic loads. This can defy the purpose of using elastomeric bearings for small to medium span typical bridges where expansion joints and clearances may result in significant increase of initial and maintenance cost. Thus, supplementing the structure with dampers with some stiffness can serve as a solution which in turn, however, may increase the structure base shear. The main objective of this thesis is to provide a simplified method for the evaluation of optimal parameters for dampers in isolated bridges. Firstly, performing a parametric study, some directions are given for the use of simple isolation devices such as elastomeric bearings to rehabilitate existing bridges with high importance. Parameters like geometry of the bridge, code provisions and the type of soil on which the structure is constructed have been introduced to a typical two span bridge. It is concluded that the stiffness of the substructure, soil type and special provisions in the code can determine the employment of base isolation for retrofitting of bridges. Secondly, based on the elastic response coefficient of isolated bridges, a simplified design method of dampers for seismically isolated regular highway bridges has been presented in this study. By setting objectives for reduction of displacement and base shear variation, the required stiffness and damping of a hysteretic damper can be determined. By modelling a typical two span bridge, numerical analyses have followed to verify the effectiveness of the method. The method has been used to identify equivalent linear parameters and subsequently, nonlinear parameters of hysteretic damper for various designated scenarios of displacement and base shear requirements. Comparison of the results of the nonlinear numerical model without damper and with damper has shown that the method is sufficiently accurate. Finally, an innovative and simple hysteretic steel damper was designed. Five specimens were fabricated from two steel grades and were tested accompanying a real scale elastomeric isolator in the structural laboratory of the Université de Sherbrooke. The test procedure was to characterize the specimens by cyclic displacement controlled tests and subsequently to test them by real-time dynamic substructuring (RTDS) method. The test results were then used to establish a numerical model of the system which went through nonlinear time history analyses under several earthquakes. The outcome of the experimental and numerical showed an acceptable conformity with the simplified method.

SEMIPARAMETRIC METHODS IN THE ESTIMATION OF TAIL PROBABILITIES AND EXTREME QUANTILES

In quantitative risk analysis, the problem of estimating small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles arise ubiquitously in bio-surveillance, economics, natural disaster insurance actuary, quality control schemes, etc. A useful way to make an assessment of extreme events is to estimate the probabilities of exceeding large threshold values and extreme quantiles judged by interested authorities. Such information regarding extremes serves as essential guidance to interested authorities in decision making processes. However, in such a context, data are usually skewed in nature, and the rarity of exceedance of large threshold implies large fluctuations in the distribution's upper tail, precisely where the accuracy is desired mostly. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a branch of statistics that characterizes the behavior of upper or lower tails of probability distributions. However, existing methods in EVT for the estimation of small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles often lead to poor predictive performance in cases where the underlying sample is not large enough or does not contain values in the distribution's tail. In this dissertation, we shall be concerned with an out of sample semiparametric (SP) method for the estimation of small threshold probabilities and extreme quantiles. The proposed SP method for interval estimation calls for the fusion or integration of a given data sample with external computer generated independent samples. Since more data are used, real as well as artificial, under certain conditions the method produces relatively short yet reliable confidence intervals for small exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles.

Resilience and the cultural landscape : the case of the Lower Ninth Ward after Hurricane Katrina

Le but de cette recherche est d’évaluer l’importance du paysage culturel dans la résilience des communautés urbaines post-catastrophes. Ce travail se concentre sur le quartier du Lower Ninth Ward dans la ville de La Nouvelle-Orléans (États-Unis) après le passage de l’ouragan Katrina en 2005. Les catastrophes naturelles prennent une envergure et causent des dommages considérables lorsqu’elles touchent des villes. La reconstruction post -désastre est donc très dispendieuse pour les villes et les gouvernements, d’autant que certaines régions sont dévastées au point qu’elles doivent être reconstruites au complet. Cependant, le coût le plus lourd à assumer reste celui en vies humaines et si rebâtir les éléments concrets d’une ville est une tâche difficile à entreprendre, reconstruire une communauté est considérablement plus complexe. Dans le but de comprendre une telle démarche, cette recherche se concentre sur les éléments intangibles, comme l’attachement au lieu et les réseaux sociaux, dont une communauté a besoin pour se reconstituer de façon durable et résiliente. Le concept de résilience est très contesté dans la littérature et plusieurs chercheurs se sont essayés à le mesurer. Cette recherche adopte une perspective critique sur le concept et le revisite d’un point de vue holistique pour mettre en lumière sa complexité. Cette démarche permet de remettre en question l’importance de mesurer un concept finalement en perpétuelle redéfinition dans le temps et selon les échelles géographiques. De plus, en établissant une relation entre résilience et paysage culturel, il a été possible de mieux comprendre la complexité de la résilience. Touchant à plusieurs disciplines (architecture de paysage, urbanisme et sociologie), cette recherche utilise une méthodologie qui reflète son aspect multidisciplinaire : les méthodes mixtes. Ces dernières permettent la collecte de données quantitatives et qualitatives qui produisent une vue globale de la situation post-Katrina à travers le regroupement de recensions statistiques, d’observations de terrain et d’articles de journaux. Parallèlement, des entretiens ont été réalisés avec des résidents du quartier ainsi qu’avec des professionnels pour mieux comprendre les différents points de vue. Cette méthodologie a permis de produire des résultats au niveau du cas d’étude autant qu’au niveau théorique. La recherche valide l’importance de prendre en compte le paysage culturel dans les situations post-catastrophes, (en particulier) dans la mesure où il s’agit d’un élément souvent négligé par les urbanistes et les acteurs locaux. En effet, les éléments constitutifs du paysage culturel tels que l’attachement au lieu et les réseaux sociaux, participent d’un sentiment d'appartenance (« home ») et d’une volonté, pour les résidents, de reconstruire leurs habitations, leur communauté ainsi que leur quartier. Toutefois, il faut reconnaître que ces éléments ne suffisent pas à retrouver ce qu’ils ont perdu. Ainsi, l’étude du paysage culturel permet non seulement de mieux comprendre la complexité de la résilience, mais démontre également que cette dernière est une construction sociale.

Centro de Excelência Aeroterrestre

Neste Trabalho de Investigação Científico iremos analisar o impacto que um Centro de Excelência Aeroterrestre traria a Portugal. São analisadas várias variáveis que têm impacto direto, na vantagem que Portugal possui face a outros países para a elaboração de um Centro de Excelência Aeroterrestre. Iremos investigar, também o impacto que este Centro teria tanto nas Forças Armadas como também na utilização destas em apoio às populações civis. Tendo em vista a obtenção de resultados nesta investigação, faremos uma comparação de determinadas características de Portugal face a outros países, passando quer por detalhes técnicos mais específicos da vertente aeroterrestres, também pelos detalhes ambientais. Neste trabalho abordaremos também o papel do Centro de Excelência junto da a Proteção Civil Portuguesa, nomeadamente nas suas capacidades de apoio às populações em caso de catástrofe natural.

L’analyse de la vulnérabilité d’une population déplacée suite à un désastre naturel : le cas du site planifié Corail à Port-au-Prince

À travers l’augmentation des désastres dits « naturels » au cours de la dernière décennie, des populations se sont retrouvées soudainement sans maison, sans endroit où loger. L’absence d’endroit où loger amènera donc les populations affectées à se déplacer temporairement et parfois de façon permanente. Cette étude s’intéresse à un cas spécifique de relocalisation dans un site organisé, Corail-Cesselesse, créé quelques mois après le tremblement de terre dévastateur de janvier 2010, en Haïti. Initialement occupé par des ménages provenant surtout des quartiers de Delmas et Port-au-Prince et qui s’étaient réfugiés sur le vaste terrain de golf de Pétionville après avoir perdu leurs habitations, le site de Corail est ainsi étudié de façon descriptive et comparative pour évaluer l’évolution de la vulnérabilité des ménages qui y vivent. Pour ce faire, une revue du concept portant sur la vulnérabilité et la gestion des risques est nécessaire pour y dégager les indicateurs clés servant à l’analyse de l’évolution des états précédant et succédant à une catastrophe naturelle. En particulier, une approche combinant trois méthodes ralliant le qualitatif et quantitatif est utile pour conduire cette évaluation. À travers des questionnaires, des données géospatiales et d’entrevues auprès de professionnels en aménagement dans les pays en développement, on analyse dans quelle mesure la vulnérabilité sociale a évolué. On constate que la prise de décision sur la création de Corail a négligé plusieurs dimensions sociales nécessaires pour permettre aux familles de se rétablir d’un aléa d’une telle amplitude.

L’analyse de la vulnérabilité d’une population déplacée suite à un désastre naturel : le cas du site planifié Corail à Port-au-Prince

À travers l’augmentation des désastres dits « naturels » au cours de la dernière décennie, des populations se sont retrouvées soudainement sans maison, sans endroit où loger. L’absence d’endroit où loger amènera donc les populations affectées à se déplacer temporairement et parfois de façon permanente. Cette étude s’intéresse à un cas spécifique de relocalisation dans un site organisé, Corail-Cesselesse, créé quelques mois après le tremblement de terre dévastateur de janvier 2010, en Haïti. Initialement occupé par des ménages provenant surtout des quartiers de Delmas et Port-au-Prince et qui s’étaient réfugiés sur le vaste terrain de golf de Pétionville après avoir perdu leurs habitations, le site de Corail est ainsi étudié de façon descriptive et comparative pour évaluer l’évolution de la vulnérabilité des ménages qui y vivent. Pour ce faire, une revue du concept portant sur la vulnérabilité et la gestion des risques est nécessaire pour y dégager les indicateurs clés servant à l’analyse de l’évolution des états précédant et succédant à une catastrophe naturelle. En particulier, une approche combinant trois méthodes ralliant le qualitatif et quantitatif est utile pour conduire cette évaluation. À travers des questionnaires, des données géospatiales et d’entrevues auprès de professionnels en aménagement dans les pays en développement, on analyse dans quelle mesure la vulnérabilité sociale a évolué. On constate que la prise de décision sur la création de Corail a négligé plusieurs dimensions sociales nécessaires pour permettre aux familles de se rétablir d’un aléa d’une telle amplitude.