Potential Distribution and Risk Assessment of an Invasive Plant Species: A Case Study of Hymenachne amplexicaulis in Australia

Given the limited resources available for weed management, a strategic approach is required to give the best bang for your buck. The current study incorporates: (1) a model ensemble approach to identify areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding a species invasive potential, (2) current distribution of the invaded species, and (3) connectivity of systems to identify target regions and focus efforts for more effective management. Uncertainty in the prediction of suitable habitat for H. amplexicaulis (study species) in Australia was addressed in an ensemble-forecasting approach to compare distributional scenarios from four models (CLIMATCH; CLIMEX; boosted regression trees [BRT]; maximum entropy [Maxent]). Models were built using subsets of occurrence and environmental data. Catchment risk was determined through incorporating habitat suitability, the current abundance and distribution of H. amplexicaulis, and catchment connectivity. Our results indicate geographic differences between predictions of different approaches. Despite these differences a number of catchments in northern, central, and southern Australia were identified as high risk of invasion or further spread by all models suggesting they should be given priority for the management of H. amplexicaulis. The study also highlighted the utility of ensemble approaches in indentifying areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding the species invasive potential.

Quantitative trait loci detection and benefits from marker-assisted selection in dairy cattle

Knowing the chromosomal areas or actual genes affecting the traits under selection would add more information to be used in the selection decisions which would potentially lead to higher genetic response. The first objective of this study was to map quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting economically important traits in the Finnish Ayrshire population. The second objective was to investigate the effects of using QTL information in marker-assisted selection (MAS) on the genetic response and the linkage disequilibrium between the different parts of the genome. Whole genome scans were carried out on a grand-daughter design with 12 half-sib families and a total of 493 sons. Twelve different traits were studied: milk yield, protein yield, protein content, fat yield, fat content, somatic cell score (SCS), mastitis treatments, other veterinary treatments, days open, fertility treatments, non-return rate, and calf mortality. The average spacing of the typed markers was 20 cM with 2 to 14 markers per chromosome. Associations between markers and traits were analyzed with multiple marker regression. Significance was determined by permutation and genome-wise P-values obtained by Bonferroni correction. The benefits from MAS were investigated by simulation: a conventional progeny testing scheme was compared to a scheme where QTL information was used within families to select among full-sibs in the male path. Two QTL on different chromosomes were modelled. The effects of different starting frequencies of the favourable alleles and different size of the QTL effects were evaluated. A large number of QTL, 48 in total, were detected at 5% or higher chromosome-wise significance. QTL for milk production were found on 8 chromosomes, for SCS on 6, for mastitis treatments on 1, for other veterinary treatments on 5, for days open on 7, for fertility treatments on 7, for calf mortality on 6, and for non-return rate on 2 chromosomes. In the simulation study the total genetic response was faster with MAS than with conventional selection and the advantage of MAS persisted over the studied generations. The rate of response and the difference between the selection schemes reflected clearly the changes in allele frequencies of the favourable QTL. The disequilibrium between the polygenes and QTL was always negative and it was larger with larger QTL size. The disequilibrium between the two QTL was larger with QTL of large effect and it was somewhat larger with MAS for scenarios with starting frequencies below 0.5 for QTL of moderate size and below 0.3 for large QTL. In conclusion, several QTL affecting economically important traits of dairy cattle were detected. Further studies are needed to verify these QTL, check their presence in the present breeding population, look for pleiotropy and fine map the most interesting QTL regions. The results of the simulation studies show that using MAS together with embryo transfer to pre-select young bulls within families is a useful approach to increase the genetic merit of the AI-bulls compared to conventional selection.

Cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D and fetal growth in the China-Anhui birth cohort study

We determined the association of cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] with birth weight and the risk of small for gestational age (SGA). As part of the China-Anhui Birth Cohort (C-ABC) study, we measured cord blood levels of 25(OH)D in 1491 neonates in Hefei, China. The data on maternal sociodemographic characteristics, health status, lifestyle, birth outcomes were prospectively collected. Multiple regression models were used to estimate the association of 25(OH)D levels with birth weight and the risk of SGA. Compared with neonates in the lowest decile of cord blood 25(OH)D levels, neonates in four deciles (the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh deciles) had significantly increased birth weight and decreased risk of SGA. Multiple linear regression models showed that per 10 nmol/L increase in cord blood 25(OH)D, birth weight increased by 61.0 g (95% CI: 31.9, 89.9) at concentrations less than 40 nmol/L, and then decreased by 68.5 g (95% CI: −110.5, −26.6) at concentrations from 40 to 70 nmol/L. This study provides the first epidemiological evidence that there was an inverted U shaped relationship between neonatal vitamin D status and fetal growth, and the risk of SGA reduced at moderate concentration.

Estimating Hydrogen Cyanide in Forage Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) by Near-Infrared Spectroscopy

Hydrogen cyanide (HCN) is a toxic chemical that can potentially cause mild to severe reactions in animals when grazing forage sorghum. Developing technologies to monitor the level of HCN in the growing crop would benefit graziers, so that they can move cattle into paddocks with acceptable levels of HCN. In this study, we developed near-infrared spectroscopy (MRS) calibrations to estimate HCN in forage sorghum and hay. The full spectral NIRS range (400-2498 nm) was used as well as specific spectral ranges within the full spectral range, i.e., visible (400-750 nm), shortwave (800-1100 nm) and near-infrared (NIR) (1100-2498 nm). Using the full spectrum approach and partial least-squares (PLS), the calibration produced a coefficient of determination (R-2) = 0.838 and standard error of cross-validation (SECV) = 0.040%, while the validation set had a R-2 = 0.824 with a low standard error of prediction (SEP = 0.047%). When using a multiple linear regression (MLR) approach, the best model (NIR spectra) produced a R-2 = 0.847 and standard error of calibration (SEC) = 0.050% and a R-2 = 0.829 and SEP = 0.057% for the validation set. The MLR models built from these spectral regions all used nine wavelengths. Two specific wavelengths 2034 and 2458 nm were of interest, with the former associated with C=O carbonyl stretch and the latter associated with C-N-C stretching. The most accurate PLS and MLR models produced a ratio of standard error of prediction to standard deviation of 3.4 and 3.0, respectively, suggesting that the calibrations could be used for screening breeding material. The results indicated that it should be feasible to develop calibrations using PLS or MLR models for a number of users, including breeding programs to screen for genotypes with low HCN, as well as graziers to monitor crop status to help with grazing efficiency.

Developing effective fumigation protocols to manage strongly phosphine-resistant Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae)

BACKGROUND The emergence of high levels of resistance in Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) in recent years threatens the sustainability of phosphine, a key fumigant used worldwide to disinfest stored grain. We aimed at developing robust fumigation protocols that could be used in a range of practical situations to control this resistant pest. RESULTS Values of the lethal time to kill 99.9% (LT99.9, in days) of mixed-age populations, containing all life stages, of a susceptible and a strongly resistant C. ferrugineus population were established at three phosphine concentrations (1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 mg L−1) and three temperatures (25, 30 and 35 °C). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that phosphine concentration and temperature both contributed significantly to the LT99.9 of a population (P < 0.003, R2 = 0.92), with concentration being the dominant variable, accounting for 75.9% of the variation. Across all concentrations, LT99.9 of the strongly resistant C. ferrugineus population was longest at the lowest temperature and shortest at the highest temperature. For example, 1.0 mg L−1 of phosphine is required for 20, 15 and 15 days, 1.5 mg L−1 for 12, 11 and 9 days and 2.0 mg L−1 for 10, 7 and 6 days at 25, 30 and 35 °C, respectively, to achieve 99.9% mortality of the strongly resistant C. ferrugineus population. We also observed that phosphine concentration is inversely proportional to fumigation period in regard to the population extinction of this pest. CONCLUSION The fumigation protocols developed in this study will be used in recommending changes to the currently registered rates of phosphine in Australia towards management of strongly resistant C. ferrugineus populations, and can be repeated in any country where this type of resistance appears.

Investigating variation in bus ridership rates within localised areas of a sub-tropical city

This thesis makes a significant contribution to knowledge and understanding of 'Human Travel Behaviour' in relation to transportation research. It holds some important merits that have not been proposed before. It develops a new, comprehensive and meaningful relationship that includes bus transit ridership change due to weather variables, seasonality and transit quality of service within a single daily ridership rate estimation model. The research incorporated both temporal and spatial influences on ridership within a modelling structure, named as the Nested Model Structure. It provides a complete picture of ridership variation across the sub-tropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

Developing effective fumigation protocols to manage strongly phosphine-resistant Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae)

BACKGROUND The emergence of high levels of resistance in Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) in recent years threatens the sustainability of phosphine, a key fumigant used worldwide to disinfest stored grain. We aimed at developing robust fumigation protocols that could be used in a range of practical situations to control this resistant pest. RESULTS Values of the lethal time to kill 99.9% (LT99.9, in days) of mixed-age populations, containing all life stages, of a susceptible and a strongly resistant C. ferrugineus population were established at three phosphine concentrations (1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 mg L−1) and three temperatures (25, 30 and 35 °C). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that phosphine concentration and temperature both contributed significantly to the LT99.9 of a population (P < 0.003, R2 = 0.92), with concentration being the dominant variable, accounting for 75.9% of the variation. Across all concentrations, LT99.9 of the strongly resistant C. ferrugineus population was longest at the lowest temperature and shortest at the highest temperature. For example, 1.0 mg L−1 of phosphine is required for 20, 15 and 15 days, 1.5 mg L−1 for 12, 11 and 9 days and 2.0 mg L−1 for 10, 7 and 6 days at 25, 30 and 35 °C, respectively, to achieve 99.9% mortality of the strongly resistant C. ferrugineus population. We also observed that phosphine concentration is inversely proportional to fumigation period in regard to the population extinction of this pest. CONCLUSION The fumigation protocols developed in this study will be used in recommending changes to the currently registered rates of phosphine in Australia towards management of strongly resistant C. ferrugineus populations, and can be repeated in any country where this type of resistance appears. © 2014 Commonwealth of Australia. Pest Management Science © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry

Effects of transit quality of service characteristics on daily bus ridership

A case study of Brisbane, the capital city of Queensland, Australia, explored how explicit measures of transit quality of service (e.g., service frequency, service span, and travel time ratio) and implicit environmental predictors (e.g., topographic grade factor) influenced bus ridership. The primary hypothesis tested was that bus ridership was higher in suburbs with high transit quality of service than in suburbs with limited service quality. Multiple linear regression, used to identify a strong positive relationship between route intensity (bus-km/h-km2) and bus ridership, indicated that both increased service frequency and spatial route density corresponded to higher bus ridership. Additionally, the travel time ratio (i.e., the ratio of in-vehicle transit travel time to in-vehicle automobile travel time) had a significant negative association with suburban ridership: transit use declined as travel time ratio increased. In contrast, topographic grade and service span did not significantly affect suburban bus ridership. The study findings enhance the fundamental understanding of traveler behavior, which is informative to urban transportation policy, planning, and provision.

Glycemic Control in Diabetic Pregnancies: Effects on Fetal and Maternal Outcome

Background: Both maternal and fetal complications are increased in diabetic pregnancies. Although hypertensive complications are increased in pregnant women with pregestational diabetes, reports on hypertensive complications in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) have been contradictory. Congenital malformations and macrosomia are the main fetal complications in Type 1 diabetic pregnancies, whereas fetal macrosomia and birth trauma but not congenital malformations are increased in GDM pregnancies. Aims: To study the frequency of hypertensive disorders in gestational diabetes mellitus. To evaluate the risk of macrosomia and brachial plexus injury (Erb’s palsy) and the ability of the 2-hour glucose tolerance test (OGTT) combined with the 24-hour glucose profile to distinguish between low and high risks of fetal macrosomia among women with GDM. To evaluate the relationship between glycemic control and the risk of fetal malformations in pregnancies complicated by Type 1 diabetes mellitus. To assess the effect of glycemic control on the occurrence of preeclampsia and pregnancy-induced hypertension in Type 1 diabetic pregnancies. Subjects: A total of 986 women with GDM and 203 women with borderline glucose intolerance (one abnormal value in the OGTT) with a singleton pregancy, 488 pregnant women with Type 1 diabetes (691 pregnancies and 709 offspring), and 1154 pregnant non-diabetic women (1181 pregnancies and 1187 offspring) were investigated. Results: In a prospective study on 81 GDM patients the combined frequency of preeclampsia and PIH was higher than in 327 non-diabetic controls (19.8% vs 6.1%, p<0.001). On the other hand, in 203 women with only one abnormal value in the OGTT, the rate of hypertensive complications did not differ from that of the controls. Both GDM women and those with only one abnormal value in the OGTT had higher pre-pregnancy weights and BMIs than the controls. In a retrospective study involving 385 insulin-treated and 520 diet-treated GDM patients, and 805 non-diabetic control pregnant women, fetal macrosomia occurred more often in the insulin-treated GDM pregnancies (18.2%, p<0.001) than in the diet-treated GDM pregnancies (4.4%), or the control pregnancies (2.2%). The rate of Erb’s palsy in vaginally delivered infants was 2.7% in the insulin-treated group of women and 2.4% in the diet-treated women compared with 0.3% in the controls (p<0.001). The cesarean section rate was more than twice as high (42.3% vs 18.6%) in the insulin-treated GDM patients as in the controls. A major fetal malformation was observed in 30 (4.2%) of the 709 newborn infants in Type 1 diabetic pregnancies and in 10 (1.4%) of the 735 controls (RR 3.1, 95% CI 1.6–6.2). Even women whose levels of HbA1c (normal values less than 5.6%) were only slightly increased in early pregnancy (between 5.6 and 6.8%) had a relative risk of fetal malformation of 3.0 (95% CI 1.2–7.5). Only diabetic patients with a normal HbA1c level (<5.6%) in early pregnancy had the same low risk of fetal malformations as the controls. Preeclampsia was diagnosed in 12.8% and PIH in 11.4% of the 616 Type 1 diabetic women without diabetic nephropathy. The corresponding frequencies among the 854 control women were 2.7% (OR 5.2; 95% CI 3.3–8.4) for preeclampsia and 5.6% (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.5–3.1) for PIH. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that glycemic control, nulliparity, diabetic retinopathy and duration of diabetes were statistically significant independent predictors of preeclampsia. The adjusted odds ratios for preeclampsia were 1.6 (95% CI 1.3–2.0) for each 1%-unit increment in the HbA1c value during the first trimester and 0.6 (95% CI 0.5–0.8) for each 1%-unit decrement during the first half of pregnancy. In contrast, changes in glycemic control during the second half of pregnancy did not alter the risk of preeclampsia. Conclusions: In type 1 diabetic pregnancies it is extremely important to achieve optimal glycemic control before pregnancy and maintain it throughout pregnancy in order to decrease the complication rates both in the mother and in her offspring. The rate of fetal macrosomia and birth trauma in GDM pregnancies, especially in the group of insulin-treated women, is still relatively high. New strategies for screening, diagnosing, and treatment of GDM must be developed in order to decrease fetal and neonatal complications.

Social Media as a Form of Organizational Knowledge Sharing

This study investigates the role of social media as a form of organizational knowledge sharing. Social media is investigated in terms of the Web 2.0 technologies that organizations provide their employees as tools of internal communication. This study is anchored in the theoretical understanding of social media as technologies which enable both knowledge collection and knowledge donation. This study investigates the factors influencing employees’ use of social media in their working environment. The study presents the multidisciplinary research tradition concerning knowledge sharing. Social media is analyzed especially in relation to internal communication and knowledge sharing. Based on previous studies, it is assumed that personal, organizational, and technological factors influence employees’ use of social media in their working environment. The research represents a case study focusing on the employees of the Finnish company Wärtsilä. Wärtsilä represents an eligible case organization for this study given that it puts in use several Web 2.0 tools in its intranet. The research is based on quantitative methods. In total 343 answers were obtained with the aid of an online survey which was available in Wärtsilä’s intranet. The associations between the variables are analyzed with the aid of correlations. Finally, with the aid of multiple linear regression analysis the causality between the assumed factors and the use of social media is tested. The analysis demonstrates that personal, organizational and technological factors influence the respondents’ use of social media. As strong predictive variables emerge the benefits that respondents expect to receive from using social media and respondents’ experience in using Web 2.0 in their private lives. Also organizational factors such as managers’ and colleagues’ activeness and organizational guidelines for using social media form a causal relationship with the use of social media. In addition, respondents’ understanding of their responsibilities affects their use of social media. The more social media is considered as a part of individual responsibilities, the more frequently social media is used. Finally, technological factors must be recognized. The more user-friendly social media tools are considered and the better technical skills respondents have, the more frequently social media is used in the working environment. The central references in relation to knowledge sharing include Chun Wei Choo’s (2006) work Knowing Organization, Ikujiro Nonaka and Hirotaka Takeuchi’s (1995) work The Knowledge Creating Company and Linda Argote’s (1999) work Organizational Learning.

Methods in general model localization

The aim of this study was to evaluate and test methods which could improve local estimates of a general model fitted to a large area. In the first three studies, the intention was to divide the study area into sub-areas that were as homogeneous as possible according to the residuals of the general model, and in the fourth study, the localization was based on the local neighbourhood. According to spatial autocorrelation (SA), points closer together in space are more likely to be similar than those that are farther apart. Local indicators of SA (LISAs) test the similarity of data clusters. A LISA was calculated for every observation in the dataset, and together with the spatial position and residual of the global model, the data were segmented using two different methods: classification and regression trees (CART) and the multiresolution segmentation algorithm (MS) of the eCognition software. The general model was then re-fitted (localized) to the formed sub-areas. In kriging, the SA is modelled with a variogram, and the spatial correlation is a function of the distance (and direction) between the observation and the point of calculation. A general trend is corrected with the residual information of the neighbourhood, whose size is controlled by the number of the nearest neighbours. Nearness is measured as Euclidian distance. With all methods, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were lower, but with the methods that segmented the study area, the deviance in single localized RMSEs was wide. Therefore, an element capable of controlling the division or localization should be included in the segmentation-localization process. Kriging, on the other hand, provided stable estimates when the number of neighbours was sufficient (over 30), thus offering the best potential for further studies. Even CART could be combined with kriging or non-parametric methods, such as most similar neighbours (MSN).

Lahopuumäärän ennustaminen ja kartoitus lentokonelaserkeilauksen avulla

Lahopuun määrästä ja sijoittumisesta ollaan kiinnostuneita paitsi elinympäristöjen monimuotoisuuden, myös ilmakehän hiilen varastoinnin kannalta. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli kehittää aluepohjainen laserkeilausdataa hyödyntävä malli lahopuukohteiden paikantamiseksi ja lahopuun määrän estimoimiseksi. Samalla tutkittiin mallin selityskyvyn muuttumista mallinnettavan ruudun kokoa suurennettaessa. Tutkimusalue sijaitsi Itä-Suomessa Sonkajärvellä ja koostui pääasiassa nuorista hoidetuista talousmetsistä. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin harvapulssista laserkeilausdataa sekä kaistoittain mitattua maastodataa kuolleesta puuaineksesta. Aineisto jaettiin siten, että neljäsosa datasta oli käytössä mallinnusta varten ja loput varattiin valmiiden mallien testaamiseen. Lahopuun mallintamisessa käytettiin sekä parametrista että ei-parametrista mallinnusmenetelmää. Logistisen regression avulla erikokoisille (0,04, 0,20, 0,32, 0,52 ja 1,00 ha) ruuduille ennustettiin todennäköisyys lahopuun esiintymiselle. Muodostettujen mallien selittävät muuttujat valittiin 80 laserpiirteen ja näiden muunnoksien joukosta. Mallien selittävät muuttujat valittiin kolmessa vaiheessa. Aluksi muuttujia tarkasteltiin visuaalisesti kuvaamalla ne lahopuumäärän suhteen. Ensimmäisessä vaiheessa sopivimmiksi arvioitujen muuttujien selityskykyä testattiin mallinnuksen toisessa vaiheessa yhden muuttujan mallien avulla. Lopullisessa usean muuttujan mallissa selittävien muuttujien kriteerinä oli tilastollinen merkitsevyys 5 % riskitasolla. 0,20 hehtaarin ruutukoolle luotu malli parametrisoitiin muun kokoisille ruuduille. Logistisella regressiolla toteutetun parametrisen mallintamisen lisäksi, 0,04 ja 1,0 hehtaarin ruutukokojen aineistot luokiteltiin ei-parametrisen CART-mallinnuksen (Classification and Regression Trees) avulla. CARTmenetelmällä etsittiin aineistosta vaikeasti havaittavia epälineaarisia riippuvuuksia laserpiirteiden ja lahopuumäärän välillä. CART-luokittelu tehtiin sekä lahopuustoisuuden että lahopuutilavuuden suhteen. CART-luokituksella päästiin logistista regressiota parempiin tuloksiin ruutujen luokituksessa lahopuustoisuuden suhteen. Logistisella mallilla tehty luokitus parani ruutukoon suurentuessa 0,04 ha:sta(kappa 0,19) 0,32 ha:iin asti (kappa 0,38). 0,52 ha:n ruutukoolla luokituksen kappa-arvo kääntyi laskuun (kappa 0,32) ja laski edelleen hehtaarin ruutukokoon saakka (kappa 0,26). CART-luokitus parani ruutukoon kasvaessa. Luokitustulokset olivat logistista mallinnusta parempia sekä 0,04 ha:n (kappa 0,24) että 1,0 ha:n (kappa 0,52) ruutukoolla. CART-malleilla määritettyjen ruutukohtaisten lahopuutilavuuksien suhteellinen RMSE pieneni ruutukoon kasvaessa. 0,04 hehtaarin ruutukoolla koko aineiston lahopuumäärän suhteellinen RMSE oli 197,1 %, kun hehtaarin ruutukoolla vastaava luku oli 120,3 %. Tämän tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella voidaan todeta, että maastossa mitatun lahopuumäärän ja tutkimuksessa käytettyjen laserpiirteiden yhteys on pienellä ruutukoolla hyvin heikko, mutta vahvistuu hieman ruutukoon kasvaessa. Kun mallinnuksessa käytetty ruutukoko kasvaa, pienialaisten lahopuukeskittymien havaitseminen kuitenkin vaikeutuu. Tutkimuksessa kohteen lahopuustoisuus pystyttiin kartoittamaan kohtuullisesti suurella ruutukoolla, mutta pienialaisten kohteiden kartoittaminen ei onnistunut käytetyillä menetelmillä. Pienialaisten kohteiden paikantaminen laserkeilauksen avulla edellyttää jatkotutkimusta erityisesti tiheäpulssisen laserdatan käytöstä lahopuuinventoinneissa.

Perinatal mortality and maternal health in rural China

Background and context Since the economic reforms of 1978, China has been acclaimed as a remarkable economy, achieving 9% annual growth per head for more than 25 years. However, China's health sector has not fared well. The population health gains slowed down and health disparities increased. In the field of health and health care, significant progress in maternal care has been achieved. However, there still remain important disparities between the urban and rural areas and among the rural areas in terms of economic development. The excess female infant deaths and the rapidly increasing sex ratio at birth in the last decade aroused serious concerns among policy makers and scholars. Decentralization of the government administration and health sector reform impacts maternal care. Many studies using census data have been conducted to explore the determinants of a high sex ratio at birth, but no agreement has been so far reached on the possible contributing factors. No study using family planning system data has been conducted to explore perinatal mortality and sex ratio at birth and only few studies have examined the impact of the decentralization of government and health sector reforms on the provision and organization of maternal care in rural China. Objectives The general objective of this study was to investigate the state of perinatal health and maternal care and their determinants in rural China under the historic context of major socioeconomic reforms and the one child family planning policy. The specific objectives of the study included: 1) to study pregnancy outcomes and perinatal health and their correlates in a rural Chinese county; 2) to examine the issue of sex ratio at birth and its determinants in a rural Chinese county; 3) to explore the patterns of provision, utilization, and content of maternal care in a rural Chinese county; 4) to investigate the changes in the use of maternal care in China from 1991 to 2003. Materials and Methods This study is based on a project for evaluating the prenatal care programme in Dingyuan county in 1999-2003, Anhui province, China and a nationwide household health survey to describe the changes in maternal care utilization. The approaches used included a retrospective cohort study, cross sectional interview surveys, informant interviews, observations and the use of statistical data. The data sources included the following: 1) A cohort of pregnant women followed from pregnancy up to 7 days after birth in 20 townships in the study county, collecting information on pregnancy outcomes using family planning records; 2) A questionnaire interview survey given to women who gave birth between 2001 and 2003; 3) Various statistical and informant surveys data collected from the study county; 4) Three national household health interview survey data sets (1993-2003) were utilized, and reanalyzed to described the changes in maternity care utilization. Relative risks (RR) and their confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for comparison between parity, approval status, infant sex and township groups. The chi-square test was used to analyse the disparity of use of maternal care between and within urban and rural areas and its trend across the years in China. Logistic regression was used to analyse the factors associated with hospital delivery in rural areas. Results There were 3697 pregnancies in the study cohort, resulting in 3092 live births in a total population of 299463 in the 20 study townships during 1999-2000. The average age at pregnancy in the cohort was 25.9 years. Of the women, 61% were childless, 38% already had one child and 0.3% had two children before the current pregnancy. About 90% of approved pregnancies ended in a live birth while 73% of the unapproved ones were aborted. The perinatal mortality rate was 69 per thousand births. If the 30 induced abortions in which the gestational age was more than 28 weeks had been counted as perinatal deaths, the perinatal mortality rate would have been as high as 78 per thousand. The perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the wealth of the township. Approximately two thirds of the perinatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period. Both the still birth rate and the early neonatal death rate increased with parity. The risk of a stillbirth in a second pregnancy was almost four times that for a first pregnancy, while the risk of early neonatal deaths doubled. The early neonatal mortality rate was twice as high for female as for male infants. The sex difference in the early neonatal mortality rate was mainly attributable to mortality in second births. The male early neonatal mortality rate was not affected by parity, while the female early neonatal mortality rate increased dramatically with parity: it was about six times higher for second births than for first births. About 82% early neonatal deaths happened within 24 hours after birth, and during that time, girls were almost three times more likely to die than boys. The death rate of females on the day of birth increased much more sharply with parity than that of males. The total sex ratio at birth of 3697 registered pregnancies was 152 males to 100 females, with 118 and 287 in first and second pregnancies, respectively. Among unapproved pregnancies, there were almost 5 live-born boys for each girl. Most prenatal and delivery care was to be taken care of in township hospitals. At the village level, there were small private clinics. There was no limitation period for the provision of prenatal and postnatal care by private practitioners. They were not permitted to provide delivery care by the county health bureau, but as some 12% of all births occurred either at home or at private clinics; some village health workers might have been involved. The county level hospitals served as the referral centers for the township hospitals in the county. However, there was no formal regulation or guideline on how the referral system should work. Whether or not a woman was referred to a higher level hospital depended on the individual midwife's professional judgment and on the clients' compliance. The county health bureau had little power over township hospitals, because township hospitals had in the decentralization process become directly accountable to the township government. In the township and county hospitals only 10-20% of the recurrent costs were funded by local government (the township hospital was funded by the township government and the county hospital was funded by the county government) and the hospitals collected user fees to balance their budgets. Also the staff salaries depended on fee incomes by the hospital. The hospitals could define the user charges themselves. Prenatal care consultations were however free in most township hospitals. None of the midwives made postnatal home visits, because of low profit of these services. The three national household health survey data showed that the proportion of women receiving their first prenatal visit within 12 weeks increased greatly from the early to middle 1990s in all areas except for large cities. The increase was much larger in the rural areas, reducing the urban-rural difference from more than 4 times to about 1.4 times. The proportion of women that received antenatal care visits meeting the Ministry of Health s standard (at least 5 times) in the rural areas increased sharply from 12% in 1991-1993 to 36% in 2001-2003. In rural areas, the proportion increase was much faster in less developed areas than in developed areas. The hospital delivery rate increased slightly from 90% to 94% in urban areas while the proportion increased from 27% to 69% in rural areas. The fastest change was found to be in type 4 rural areas, where the utilization even quadrupled. The overall difference between rural and urban areas was substantially narrowed over the period. Multiple logistic regression analysis shows that time periods, residency in rural or urban areas, income levels, age group, education levels, delivery history, occupation, health insurance and distance from the nearest health care facilities were significantly associated with hospital delivery rates. Conclusions 1. Perinatal mortality in this study was much higher than that for urban areas as well as any reported rate from specific studies in rural areas of China. Previous studies in which calculations of infant mortality were not based on epidemiological surveys have been shown to underestimate the rates by more than 50%. 2. Routine statistics collected by the Chinese family planning system proved to be a reliable data source for studying perinatal health, including still births, neonatal deaths, sex ratio at birth and among newborns. National Household Health Survey data proved to be a useful and reliable data source for studying population health and health services. Prior to this research there were few studies in these areas available to international audiences. 3.Though perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the level of township economic development, the excess female early neonatal mortality rate contributed much more to high perinatal mortality rate than economic factors. This was likely a result of the role of the family planning policy and the traditional preferences for sons, which leads to lethal neglect of female newborns and high perinatal mortality. 4. The selective abortions of female foetuses were likely to contribute most to the high sex ratio at birth. The underreporting of female births seemed to have played a secondary role. The higher early neonatal mortality rate in second-born as compared to first-born children, particularly in females, may indicate that neglect or poorer care of female newborn infants also contributes to the high sex ratio at birth or among newborns. Existing family planning policy proved not to effectively control the steadily increased birth sex ratio. 5. The rural-urban gap in service utilization was on average significantly narrowed in terms of maternal healthcare in China from 1991 to 2003. This demonstrates that significant achievements in reducing inequities can be made through a combination of socio-economic development and targeted investments in improving health services, including infrastructure, staff capacities, and subsidies to reduce the costs of service utilization for the poorest. However, the huge gap which persisted among cities of different size and within different types of rural areas indicated the need for further efforts to support the poorest areas. 6. Hospital delivery care in the study county was better accepted by women because most of women think delivery care was very important while prenatal and postnatal care were not. Hospital delivery care was more systematically provided and promoted than prenatal and postnatal care by township hospital in the study area. The reliance of hospital staff income on user fees gave the hospitals an incentive to put more emphasis on revenue generating activities such as delivery care instead of prenatal and postnatal care, since delivery care generated much profits than prenatal and postnatal care . Recommendations 1. It is essential for the central government to re-assess and modify existing family planning policies. In order to keep national sex balance, the existing practice of one couple one child in urban areas and at-least-one-son a couple in rural areas should be gradually changed to a two-children-a-couple policy throughout the country. The government should establish a favourable social security policy for couples, especially for rural couples who have only daughters, with particular emphasis on their pension and medical care insurance, combined with an educational campaign for equal rights for boys and girls in society. 2. There is currently no routine vital-statistics registration system in rural China. Using the findings of this study, the central government could set up a routine vital-statistics registration system using family planning routine work records, which could be used by policy makers and researchers. 3. It is possible for the central and provincial government to invest more in the less developed and poor rural areas to increase the access of pregnant women in these areas to maternal care services. Central government together with local government should gradually provide free maternal care including prenatal and postnatal as well as delivery care to the women in poor and less developed rural areas. 4. Future research could be done to explore if county and the township level health care sector and the family planning system could be merged to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of maternal and child care. 5. Future research could be done to explore the relative contribution of maternal care, economic development and family planning policy on perinatal and child health using prospective cohort studies and community based randomized trials. Key words: perinatal health, perinatal mortality, stillbirth, neonatal death, sex selective abortion, sex ratio at birth, family planning, son preference, maternal care, prenatal care, postnatal care, equity, China

Climate change induced risk in water quality control problems

A modeling framework is presented in this paper, integrating hydrologic scenarios projected from a General Circulation Model (GCM) with a water quality simulation model to quantify the future expected risk. Statistical downscaling with a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is carried out to develop the future scenarios of hydro-climate variables starting with simulations provided by a GCM. A Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) is used to quantify the risk of Low Water Quality (LWQ) corresponding to a threshold quality level, by considering the streamflow and water temperature as explanatory variables. An Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) presented in an earlier study is then used to develop adaptive policies to address the projected water quality risks. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated with the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river in India. The results showed that the projected changes in the hydro-climate variables tend to diminish DO levels, thus increasing the future risk levels of LWQ. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature using support vector machine

Climate change impact assessment studies involve downscaling large-scale atmospheric predictor variables (LSAPVs) simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to site-scale meteorological variables. This article presents a least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM)-based methodology for multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature series. The methodology involves (1) delineation of sites in the study area into clusters based on correlation structure of predictands, (2) downscaling LSAPVs to monthly time series of predictands at a representative site identified in each of the clusters, (3) translation of the downscaled information in each cluster from the representative site to that at other sites using LS-SVM inter-site regression relationships, and (4) disaggregation of the information at each site from monthly to daily time scale using k-nearest neighbour disaggregation methodology. Effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by application to data pertaining to four sites in the catchment of Beas river basin, India. Simulations of Canadian coupled global climate model (CGCM3.1/T63) for four IPCC SRES scenarios namely A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT were downscaled to future projections of the predictands in the study area. Comparison of results with those based on recently proposed multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) based downscaling method and multi-site multivariate statistical downscaling (MMSD) method indicate that the proposed method is promising and it can be considered as a feasible choice in statistical downscaling studies. The performance of the method in downscaling daily minimum temperature was found to be better when compared with that in downscaling daily maximum temperature. Results indicate an increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures at all the sites for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The projected increment is high for A2 scenario, and it is followed by that for A1B, B1 and COMMIT scenarios. Projections, in general, indicated an increase in mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures during January to February and October to December.