The turnover of organic carbon in subsoils. Part 2. Modelling carbon turnover

A new model, RothPC-1, is described for the turnover of organic C in the top metre of soil. RothPC-1 is a version of RothC-26.3, an earlier model for the turnover of C in topsoils. In RothPC-1 two extra parameters are used to model turnover in the top metre of soil: one, p, which moves organic C down the profile by an advective process, and the other, s, which slows decomposition with depth. RothPC-1 is parameterized and tested using measurements (described in Part 1, this issue) of total organic C and radiocarbon on soil profiles from the Rothamsted long-term field experiments, collected over a period of more than 100 years. RothPC-1 gives fits to measurements of organic C and radiocarbon in the 0-23, 23-46, 46-69 and 69-92 cm layers of soil that are almost all within (or close to) measurement error in two areas of regenerating woodland (Geescroft and Broadbalk Wildernesses) and an area of cultivated land from the Broadbalk Continuous Wheat Experiment. The fits to old grassland (the Park Grass Experiment) are less close. Two other sites that provide the requisite pre- and post-bomb data are also fitted; a prairie Chernozem from Russia and an annual grassland from California. Roth-PC-1 gives a close fit to measurements of organic C and radiocarbon down the Chernozem profile, provided that allowance is made for soil age; with the annual grassland the fit is acceptable in the upper part of the profile, but not in the clay-rich Bt horizon below. Calculations suggest that treating the top metre of soil as a homogeneous unit will greatly overestimate the effects of global warming in accelerating the decomposition of soil C and hence on the enhanced release of CO2 from soil organic matter; more realistic estimates will be obtained from multi-layer models such as RothPC-1.

A contour-advective semi-lagrangian numerical algorithm for simulating fine-scale conservative dynamical fields

This paper describes a novel numerical algorithm for simulating the evolution of fine-scale conservative fields in layer-wise two-dimensional flows, the most important examples of which are the earth's atmosphere and oceans. the algorithm combines two radically different algorithms, one Lagrangian and the other Eulerian, to achieve an unexpected gain in computational efficiency. The algorithm is demonstrated for multi-layer quasi-geostrophic flow, and results are presented for a simulation of a tilted stratospheric polar vortex and of nearly-inviscid quasi-geostrophic turbulence. the turbulence results contradict previous arguments and simulation results that have suggested an ultimate two-dimensional, vertically-coherent character of the flow. Ongoing extensions of the algorithm to the generally ageostrophic flows characteristic of planetary fluid dynamics are outlined.

A new Snow-SVAT to simulate the accumulation and ablation of seasonal snow cover beneath a forest canopy

A new snow-soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (Snow-SVAT) scheme, which simulates the accumulation and ablation of the snow cover beneath a forest canopy, is presented. The model was formulated by coupling a canopy optical and thermal radiation model to a physically-based multi-layer snow model. This canopy radiation model is physically-based yet requires few parameters, so can be used when extensive in-situ field measurements are not available. Other forest effects such as the reduction of wind speed, interception of snow on the canopy and the deposition of litter were incorporated within this combined model, SNOWCAN, which was tested with data taken as part of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) international collaborative experiment. Snow depths beneath four different canopy types and at an open site were simulated. Agreement between observed and simulated snow depths was generally good, with correlation coefficients ranging between r^2=0.94 and r^2=0.98 for all sites where automatic measurements were available. However, the simulated date of total snowpack ablation generally occurred later than the observed date. A comparison between simulated solar radiation and limited measurements of sub-canopy radiation at one site indicates that the model simulates the sub-canopy downwelling solar radiation early in the season to within measurement uncertainty.

Chlorine tolerant, multilayer reverse-somosis membranes with high permeate flux and high salt rejection

A new class of high molecular weight polyethersulfone ionomers is described in which the ionic content can be varied, at will, over a very wide and fully-controllable range. A novel type of coating process enables these materials to be deposited from alcohol-type solvents as cohesive but very thin (50 – 250 nm) films on porous support-membranes, giving high-flux membranes (3.3 – 5.0 L m-2 h-1 bar-1) with very good, though not outstanding salt rejection (typically 92 - 96%). A secondary layer, of formaldehyde-cross-linked polyvinyl alcohol, can be deposited from aqueous solution on the surface of the ionomer membrane, and this layer increases salt rejection to greater than 99% without serious loss of water permeability. The final multi-layer membrane shows excellent chlorine tolerance in reverse-osmosis operation.

Statistical downscaling of river flows

An extensive statistical ‘downscaling’ study is done to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in SW France for 51 gauging stations ranging from nival (snow-dominated) to pluvial (rainfall-dominated) river-systems. This study helps to select the appropriate statistical method at a given spatial and temporal scale to downscale hydrology for future climate change impact assessment of hydrological resources. The four proposed statistical downscaling models use large-scale predictors (derived from climate model outputs or reanalysis data) that characterize precipitation and evaporation processes in the hydrological cycle to estimate summary flow statistics. The four statistical models used are generalized linear (GLM) and additive (GAM) models, aggregated boosted trees (ABT) and multi-layer perceptron neural networks (ANN). These four models were each applied at two different spatial scales, namely at that of a single flow-gauging station (local downscaling) and that of a group of flow-gauging stations having the same hydrological behaviour (regional downscaling). For each statistical model and each spatial resolution, three temporal resolutions were considered, namely the daily mean flows, the summary statistics of fortnightly flows and a daily ‘integrated approach’. The results show that flow sensitivity to atmospheric factors is significantly different between nival and pluvial hydrological systems which are mainly influenced, respectively, by shortwave solar radiations and atmospheric temperature. The non-linear models (i.e. GAM, ABT and ANN) performed better than the linear GLM when simulating fortnightly flow percentiles. The aggregated boosted trees method showed higher and less variable R2 values to downscale the hydrological variability in both nival and pluvial regimes. Based on GCM cnrm-cm3 and scenarios A2 and A1B, future relative changes of fortnightly median flows were projected based on the regional downscaling approach. The results suggest a global decrease of flow in both pluvial and nival regimes, especially in spring, summer and autumn, whatever the considered scenario. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling flow at different spatial and temporal scales as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability.

On simple adaptive momentum

Simple Adaptive Momentum [1] was introduced as a simple means of speeding the training of multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) by changing the momentum term depending on the angle between the current and previous changes in the weights of the MLP. In the original paper. the weight changes of the whole network are used in determining this angle. This paper considers adapting the momentum term using certain subsets of these weights. This idea was inspired by the author's object oriented approach to programming MLPs. successfully used in teaching students: this approach is also described. It is concluded that the angle is best determined using the weight changes in each layer separately.

Neural and wavelet network models for financial distress classification

This work analyzes the use of linear discriminant models, multi-layer perceptron neural networks and wavelet networks for corporate financial distress prediction. Although simple and easy to interpret, linear models require statistical assumptions that may be unrealistic. Neural networks are able to discriminate patterns that are not linearly separable, but the large number of parameters involved in a neural model often causes generalization problems. Wavelet networks are classification models that implement nonlinear discriminant surfaces as the superposition of dilated and translated versions of a single "mother wavelet" function. In this paper, an algorithm is proposed to select dilation and translation parameters that yield a wavelet network classifier with good parsimony characteristics. The models are compared in a case study involving failed and continuing British firms in the period 1997-2000. Problems associated with over-parameterized neural networks are illustrated and the Optimal Brain Damage pruning technique is employed to obtain a parsimonious neural model. The results, supported by a re-sampling study, show that both neural and wavelet networks may be a valid alternative to classical linear discriminant models.

Comparison of extrasystolic ECG signal classifiers using discrete wavelet transforms

This work compares and contrasts results of classifying time-domain ECG signals with pathological conditions taken from the MITBIH arrhythmia database. Linear discriminant analysis and a multi-layer perceptron were used as classifiers. The neural network was trained by two different methods, namely back-propagation and a genetic algorithm. Converting the time-domain signal into the wavelet domain reduced the dimensionality of the problem at least 10-fold. This was achieved using wavelets from the db6 family as well as using adaptive wavelets generated using two different strategies. The wavelet transforms used in this study were limited to two decomposition levels. A neural network with evolved weights proved to be the best classifier with a maximum of 99.6% accuracy when optimised wavelet-transform ECG data wits presented to its input and 95.9% accuracy when the signals presented to its input were decomposed using db6 wavelets. The linear discriminant analysis achieved a maximum classification accuracy of 95.7% when presented with optimised and 95.5% with db6 wavelet coefficients. It is shown that the much simpler signal representation of a few wavelet coefficients obtained through an optimised discrete wavelet transform facilitates the classification of non-stationary time-variant signals task considerably. In addition, the results indicate that wavelet optimisation may improve the classification ability of a neural network. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reversible ageing effects in cryogenically cooled infrared filter radiometers

In this paper we report the observation of drifts in the responsivity of cryogenically cooled InSb detector-based infrared filter radiometers which have very strong wavelength dependence. These drifts can result in the increase or decrease of the response of the filter radiometers by over 5%. The origin of these variations was investigated and was shown to arise due to a thin film of ice formed on the multi-layer bandpass filter used to define the spectral response of the filter radiometer. The thin layer of ice interacts with the characteristics of the filter (which itself consists of a number of thin layers) and modifies the filter spectral transmission thus modifying the response of the filter radiometer of which the filter is part of. These observations are particularly relevant to space instruments which use infrared filter radiometers for earth observation. Debris from the spacecraft engines is known to accumulate on cold surfaces of instruments carried on board. The deposition of this debris on cold filters can modify the spectral response of the instruments, which use these filters to define a spectral response. Crown Copyright (c) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improvements in or relating to the manufacture of multilayer interference filters

This invention relates to the manufacture of multi-layer interference filters for use with infra-red radiation, especially at wavelengths beyond 3.8 microns. A method of manufacturing a multi-layer interference filter comprising the steps of forming on a substrate successive layers of lead telluride and another material in alternation, under conditions in which sufficient oxygen is included in the lead telluride layers to reduce the apparent free charge carrier concentration therein, so that the resulting filter exhibits enhanced transparency to radiation of wavelengths greater than 3.8 microns and enhanced natural absorption to radiation of wavelength less than 3.8 microns.

Improvements relating to the manufacture of coated substrates

This invention relates to the manufacture of coated substrates, and particularly, but not exclusively, to the deposition of multi-layer coatings in the manufacture of interference filters consisting of multiple thin films. An object of the invention is to allow accurate control of the deposition of a succession of layers having good uniformity, for example during the manufacture by vacuum evaporation of multilayer interference filters for use with infrared radiation of particularly long wavelength, using a method which is self calibrating and which avoids the repetitive use of individual control layers.

Neural networks for linear control: an analysis

This paper considers the use of radial basis function and multi-layer perceptron networks for linear or linearizable, adaptive feedback control schemes in a discrete-time environment. A close look is taken at the model structure selected and the extent of the resulting parameterization. A comparison is made with standard, nonneural network algorithms, e.g. self-tuning control.

A critique of neural networks for discrete-time linear control

This paper discusses the use of multi-layer perceptron networks for linear or linearizable, adaptive feedback.control schemes in a discrete-time environment. A close look is taken at the model structure selected and the extent of the resulting parametrization. A comparison is made with standard, non-perceptron algorithms, e.g. self-tuning control, and it is shown how gross over-parametrization can occur in the neural network case. Because of the resultant heavy computational burden and poor controller convergence, a strong case is made against the use of neural networks for discrete-time linear control.

The control of dynamical systems by neural networks

In this paper the use of neural networks for the control of dynamical systems is considered. Both identification and feedback control aspects are discussed as well as the types of system for which neural networks can provide a useful technique. Multi-layer Perceptron and Radial Basis function neural network types are looked at, with an emphasis on the latter. It is shown how basis function centre selection is a critical part of the implementation process and that multivariate clustering algorithms can be an extremely useful tool for finding centres.

Cloud statistics and cloud radiative effect for a low-mountain site

In 2007, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) was operated for a nine-month period in the Murg Valley, Black Forest, Germany, in support of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). The synergy of AMF and COPS partner instrumentation was exploited to derive a set of high-quality thermodynamic and cloud property profiles with 30 s resolution. In total, clouds were present 72% of the time, with multi-layer mixed phase (28.4%) and single-layer water clouds (11.3%) occurring most frequently. A comparison with the Cloudnet sites Chilbolton and Lindenberg for the same time period revealed that the Murg Valley exhibits lower liquid water paths (LWPs; median = 37.5 g m−2) compared to the two sites located in flat terrain. In order to evaluate the derived thermodynamic and cloud property profiles, a radiative closure study was performed with independent surface radiation measurements. In clear sky, average differences between calculated and observed surface fluxes are less than 2% and 4% for the short wave and long wave part, respectively. In cloudy situations, differences between simulated and observed fluxes, particularly in the short wave part, are much larger, but most of these can be related to broken cloud situations. The daytime cloud radiative effect (CRE), i.e. the difference of cloudy and clear-sky net fluxes, has been analysed for the whole nine-month period. For overcast, single-layer water clouds, sensitivity studies revealed that the CRE uncertainty is likewise determined by uncertainties in liquid water content and effective radius. For low LWP clouds, CRE uncertainty is dominated by LWP uncertainty; therefore refined retrievals, such as using infrared and/or higher microwave frequencies, are needed.