A multi-method approach for the assessment of composite indices and rankings

There is growing popularity in the use of composite indices and rankings for cross-organizational benchmarking. However, little attention has been paid to alternative methods and procedures for the computation of these indices and how the use of such methods may impact the resulting indices and rankings. This dissertation developed an approach for assessing composite indices and rankings based on the integration of a number of methods for aggregation, data transformation and attribute weighting involved in their computation. The integrated model developed is based on the simulation of composite indices using methods and procedures proposed in the area of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) and knowledge discovery in databases (KDD). The approach developed in this dissertation was automated through an IT artifact that was designed, developed and evaluated based on the framework and guidelines of the design science paradigm of information systems research. This artifact dynamically generates multiple versions of indices and rankings by considering different methodological scenarios according to user specified parameters. The computerized implementation was done in Visual Basic for Excel 2007. Using different performance measures, the artifact produces a number of excel outputs for the comparison and assessment of the indices and rankings. In order to evaluate the efficacy of the artifact and its underlying approach, a full empirical analysis was conducted using the World Bank's Doing Business database for the year 2010, which includes ten sub-indices (each corresponding to different areas of the business environment and regulation) for 183 countries. The output results, which were obtained using 115 methodological scenarios for the assessment of this index and its ten sub-indices, indicated that the variability of the component indicators considered in each case influenced the sensitivity of the rankings to the methodological choices. Overall, the results of our multi-method assessment were consistent with the World Bank rankings except in cases where the indices involved cost indicators measured in per capita income which yielded more sensitive results. Low income level countries exhibited more sensitivity in their rankings and less agreement between the benchmark rankings and our multi-method based rankings than higher income country groups.

(Figure 2) Mean discharge per day (total and baseflow part) of the San Francisco River and daily precipitation at station ECPL (Planta), in 2007

We investigated controls on the water chemistry of a South Ecuadorian cloud forest catchment which is partly pristine, and partly converted to extensive pasture. From April 2007 to May 2008 water samples were taken weekly to biweekly at nine different subcatchments, and were screened for differences in electric conductivity, pH, anion, as well as element composition. A principal component analysis was conducted to reduce dimensionality of the data set and define major factors explaining variation in the data. Three main factors were isolated by a subset of 10 elements (Ca2+, Ce, Gd, K+, Mg2+, Na+, Nd, Rb, Sr, Y), explaining around 90% of the data variation. Land-use was the major factor controlling and changing water chemistry of the subcatchments. A second factor was associated with the concentration of rare earth elements in water, presumably highlighting other anthropogenic influences such as gravel excavation or road construction. Around 12% of the variation was explained by the third component, which was defined by the occurrence of Rb and K and represents the influence of vegetation dynamics on element accumulation and wash-out. Comparison of base- and fast flow concentrations led to the assumption that a significant portion of soil water from around 30 cm depth contributes to storm flow, as revealed by increased rare earth element concentrations in fast flow samples. Our findings demonstrate the utility of multi-tracer principal component analysis to study tropical headwater streams, and emphasize the need for effective land management in cloud forest catchments.

Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

Métodos heurísticos para un problema multicriterio de distribución de ayuda humanitaria

Large scale disasters, such as the one caused by the Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated portions of the Philippines in 2013, or the catastrophic 2010 Haiti earthquake, which caused major damage in Port-au-Prince and other settlements in the region, have massive and lasting effects on populations. Nowadays, disasters can be considered as a consequence of inappropriately managed risk. These risks are the product of hazards and vulnerability, which refers to the extent to which a community can be affected by the impact of a hazard. In this way, developing countries, due to their greater vulnerability, suffer the highest costs when a disaster occurs. Disaster relief is a challenge for politics, economies, and societies worldwide. Humanitarian organizations face multiple decision problems when responding to disasters. In particular, once a disaster strikes, the distribution of humanitarian aid to the population affected is one of the most fundamental operations in what is called humanitarian logistics. This term is defined as the process of planning, implementing and controlling the effcient, cost-effective ow and storage of goods and materials as well as related information, from the point of origin to the point of consumption, for the purpose of meeting the end bene- ciaries' requirements and alleviate the suffering of vulnerable people, [the Humanitarian Logistics Conference, 2004 (Fritz Institute)]. During the last decade there has been an increasing interest in the OR/MS community in studying this topic, pointing out the similarities and differences between humanitarian and business logistics, and developing models suited to handle the special characteristics of these problems. Several authors have pointed out that traditional logistic objectives, such as minimizing operation cost, are not the most relevant goals in humanitarian operations. Other factors, such as the time of operation, or the design of safe and equitable distribution plans, come to the front, and new models and algorithms are needed to cope with these special features. Up to six attributes related to the distribution plan are considered in our multi-criteria approach. Even though there are usually simple ways to measure the cost of an operation, the evaluation of some other attributes such as security or equity is not easy. As a result, several attribute measures are proposed and developed, focusing on different aspects of the solutions. Furthermore, when metaheuristic solution methods are used, considering non linear objective functions does not increase the complexity of the algorithms significantly, and thus more accurate measures can be utilized...

Multi-dimensional summarization in cyber-physical society

Text summarization has been studied for over a half century, but traditional methods process texts empirically and neglect the fundamental characteristics and principles of language use and understanding. Automatic summarization is a desirable technique for processing big data. This reference summarizes previous text summarization approaches in a multi-dimensional category space, introduces a multi-dimensional methodology for research and development, unveils the basic characteristics and principles of language use and understanding, investigates some fundamental mechanisms of summarization, studies dimensions on representations, and proposes a multi-dimensional evaluation mechanism. Investigation extends to incorporating pictures into summary and to the summarization of videos, graphs and pictures, and converges to a general summarization method. Further, some basic behaviors of summarization are studied in the complex cyber-physical-social space. Finally, a creative summarization mechanism is proposed as an effort toward the creative summarization of things, which is an open process of interactions among physical objects, data, people, and systems in cyber-physical-social space through a multi-dimensional lens of semantic computing. The insights can inspire research and development of many computing areas.

GESTIÓN HÍDRICA LOCAL

Resumen La Evaluación Múlticriterio (EMC), integra las diferentes dimensiones de una realidad en un sólo marco de análisis, para brindar un acercamiento de la gestión del recurso hídrico en los cantones Barva, Santa Bárbara y San Rafael de Heredia, con el objetivo de generar las políticas hídricas locales adecuadas. Esta estructura metodológica presenta una gran transparencia como herramienta en la toma de decisiones, identificando claramente los diferentes actores involucrados, describiendo, al mismo tiempo los problemas de gestión del recurso hídrico en la zona; a la vez que permite delimitar los conflictos sociales y mostrar diferentes posibilidades para su solución a través de compromisos y diálogo entre las partes. De éste diálogo emergen soluciones concretas, estructuradas como políticas locales hídricas, tales como: Planes de Gestión Hídrica, Inversión Pública y Privada, Coordinación Institucional, Reforma Institucional/legal. La zona presenta una atmósfera conflictiva alrededor de la gestión del agua y por tanto en la estructuración de políticas hídricas locales. Esta conflictividad ‘sectorial’(es decir por cantón) se superpone a una extraordinaria conflictividad ‘territorial’. La escasez o competencia sobre el agua se fundamenta en unas demandas crecientes que son expresión de un proceso de desarrollo urbano y turístico acelerado y desordenado.   Abstract The Evaluation Multi-criteria analysis (EMA), integrates the different dimensions of a reality in an analysis mark, to offer an approach of the administration of the hydric resources in the Heredia´s cities of Barva, Santa Bárbara and San Rafael, with the objective of generating the local adequate hydrics policies. This methodological structure presents a great transparency like tool in the taking of decisions, identifying the different involved actors clearly, describing, at the same time, the problems of administration of the hydric resources in the area; and at the same time, it allows to define the social conflicts, as showing different possibilities for their solution through commitments and dialogue among the parts. Of this dialogue concrete solutions they emerge, structured as hydrics local policies, such as: Plans of hydric management, Public and Private Investment, Institutional Coordination, Institucional/legal reforms. The area presents a conflicting atmosphere around the administration of the water and therefore in the structuring of local hydrics policies. This conflict 'sectorial' (to say for canton) it is superimposed to an extraordinary 'territorial' conflict. The shortage or competition for water are based in some growing demands that are expression of a process of quick and disordered urban and tourist development.

Metodologia multicritério para avaliar as condições de operação do transporte de carga por cabotagem no Brasil, sob a ótica dos armadores

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, 2016.

Evaluation of the Evidential Value of the Elemental Composition of Glass, Ink and Paper by Laser-Based Micro-Spectrochemical Methods

Elemental analysis can become an important piece of evidence to assist the solution of a case. The work presented in this dissertation aims to evaluate the evidential value of the elemental composition of three particular matrices: ink, paper and glass. In the first part of this study, the analytical performance of LIBS and LA-ICP-MS methods was evaluated for paper, writing inks and printing inks. A total of 350 ink specimens were examined including black and blue gel inks, ballpoint inks, inkjets and toners originating from several manufacturing sources and/or batches. The paper collection set consisted of over 200 paper specimens originating from 20 different paper sources produced by 10 different plants. Micro-homogeneity studies show smaller variation of elemental compositions within a single source (i.e., sheet, pen or cartridge) than the observed variation between different sources (i.e., brands, types, batches). Significant and detectable differences in the elemental profile of the inks and paper were observed between samples originating from different sources (discrimination of 87 – 100% of samples, depending on the sample set under investigation and the method applied). These results support the use of elemental analysis, using LA-ICP-MS and LIBS, for the examination of documents and provide additional discrimination to the currently used techniques in document examination. In the second part of this study, a direct comparison between four analytical methods (µ-XRF, solution-ICP-MS, LA-ICP-MS and LIBS) was conducted for glass analyses using interlaboratory studies. The data provided by 21 participants were used to assess the performance of the analytical methods in associating glass samples from the same source and differentiating different sources, as well as the use of different match criteria (confidence interval (±6s, ±5s, ±4s, ±3s, ±2s), modified confidence interval, t-test (sequential univariate, p=0.05 and p=0.01), t-test with Bonferroni correction (for multivariate comparisons), range overlap, and Hotelling’s T2 tests. Error rates (Type 1 and Type 2) are reported for the use of each of these match criteria and depend on the heterogeneity of the glass sources, the repeatability between analytical measurements, and the number of elements that were measured. The study provided recommendations for analytical performance-based parameters for µ-XRF and LA-ICP-MS as well as the best performing match criteria for both analytical techniques, which can be applied now by forensic glass examiners.

SISTEMA DE INFORMACIÓN GEOGRÁFICA PARA LA GESTIÓN DE RECURSOS HÍDRICOS

Este artículo describe la puesta en funcionamiento de una herramienta de información geográfica para la gestión y planificación de recursos hídricos de Cataluña desarrollada mediante plataformas OpenSource. Esta herramienta ha de permitir responder a sucesos extremos como la sequía, facilitando de manera intuitiva y rápida elementos de  evaluación y toma de decisiones. Este Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG) de gestión de los recursos hídricos se ha  desarrollado para obtener resultados a medida del cliente. Su interfaz ágil y sencilla, su capacidad multiusuario, su alto  rendimiento y escalabilidad y la ausencia de costes de licencia hacen que, con una inversión limitada, se obtenga una amortización muy rápida. Cabe destacar la automatización de procesos sistemáticos, geoprocesos y análisis multicriterio definidos por el cliente, que le permiten ahorrar tiempo y recursos, así como aumentar la productividad.Palabras clave: Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG), acceso abierto, gestión, agua, automatizaciónAbstractThis article describes the implementation of a geographical information tool developed on an OpenSource platform for the management and planning of water resources in Catalonia. This Geographic Information System (GIS) is designed to deliver fast and intuitive evaluation and decision making criteria in response to extreme events, such as drought. Its strong customization, user friendliness, multiuser capability, performance and scalability, together with its license-free condition, allow for an extremely fast return on investment. The embedded automation of user-defined systemic processes, geo-processes and multi-criteria analyses provide significant time and resource savings and productivity Key Words: Geographic Information System (GIS), Open Source, water supply management, automation

Concepts and tools for comprehensive sustainability assessments for tourism destinations: a comparative review

This paper reviews a wide range of tools for comprehensive sustainability assessments at whole tourism destinations, covering socio-cultural, economic and environmental issues. It considers their strengths, weaknesses and site specific applicability. It is intended to facilitate their selection (and combination where necessary). Tools covered include Sustainability Indicators, Environmental Impact Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment, Environmental Audits, Ecological Footprints, Multi-Criteria Analysis and Adaptive Environmental Assessment. Guidelines for evaluating their suitability for specific sites and situations are given as well as examples of their use.

Seleção de ferramenta para avaliação do desempenho ambiental de produtos: estudo de caso na indústria automóvel

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Biológica

Prognostic modelling of breast cancer patients: a benchmark of predictive models with external validation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores – Sistemas Digitais e Percepcionais pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Multicriteria decision making: a case study in the automobile industry

Multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA) has been one of the fastest-growing areas of operations research during the last decades. The academic attention devoted to MCDA motivated the development of a great variety of approaches and methods within the field. These methods distinguish themselves in terms of procedures, theoretical assumptions and type of decision addressed. This diversity poses challenges to the process of selecting the most suited method for a specific real-world decision problem. In this paper we present a case study in a real-world decision problem arising in the painting sector of an automobile plant. We tackle the problem by resorting to the well-known AHP method and to the MCDA method proposed by Pereira and Fontes (2012) (MMASSI). By relying on two, rather than one, MCDA methods we expect to improve the confidence and robustness of the obtained results. The contributions of this paper are twofold: first, we intend to investigate the contrasts and similarities of the results obtained by distinct MCDA approaches (AHP and MMASSI); secondly, we expect to enrich the literature of the field with a real-world MCDA case study on a complex decision making problem since there is a paucity of applied research work addressing real decision problems faced by organizations.

Multicriteria decision making: a case study in the automobile industry

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been one of the fastest-growing areas of operations research during the last decades. The academic attention devoted to MCDA motivated the development of a great variety of approaches and methods within the field. These methods distinguish themselves in terms of procedures, theoretical assumptions and type of decision addressed. This diversity poses challenges to the process of selecting the most suited method for a specific real-world decision problem. In this paper we present a case study in a real-world decision problem arising in the painting sector of an automobile plant. We tackle the problem by resorting to the well-known AHP method and to the MCDA method proposed by Pereira and Fontes (2012) (MMASSI). By relying on two, rather than one, MCDA methods we expect to improve the confidence and robustness of the obtained results. The contributions of this paper are twofold: first, we intend to investigate the contrasts and similarities of the results obtained by distinct MCDA approaches (AHP and MMASSI); secondly, we expect to enrich the literature of the field with a real-world MCDA case study on a complex decision making problem since there is a paucity of applied research work addressing real decision problems faced by organizations.

Group decision making for selection of an information system in a business context

The main objective of this work is to report on the development of a multi-criteria methodology to support the assessment and selection of an Information System (IS) framework in a business context. The objective is to select a technological partner that provides the engine to be the basis for the development of a customized application for shrinkage reduction on the supply chains management. Furthermore, the proposed methodology di ers from most of the ones previously proposed in the sense that 1) it provides the decision makers with a set of pre-defined criteria along with their description and suggestions on how to measure them and 2)it uses a continuous scale with two reference levels and thus no normalization of the valuations is required. The methodology here proposed is has been designed to be easy to understand and use, without a specific support of a decision making analyst.