Bayesian model comparison in cosmology with Population Monte Carlo

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence in favour of each model using Population Monte Carlo (PMC), a new adaptive sampling technique which was recently applied in a cosmological context. The Bayesian evidence is immediately available from the PMC sample used for parameter estimation without further computational effort, and it comes with an associated error evaluation. Besides, it provides an unbiased estimator of the evidence after any fixed number of iterations and it is naturally parallelizable, in contrast with MCMC and nested sampling methods. By comparison with analytical predictions for simulated data, we show that our results obtained with PMC are reliable and robust. The variability in the evidence evaluation and the stability for various cases are estimated both from simulations and from data. For the cases we consider, the log-evidence is calculated with a precision of better than 0.08. Using a combined set of recent CMB, SNIa and BAO data, we find inconclusive evidence between flat LambdaCDM and simple dark-energy models. A curved Universe is moderately to strongly disfavoured with respect to a flat cosmology. Using physically well-motivated priors within the slow-roll approximation of inflation, we find a weak preference for a running spectral index. A Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum is weakly disfavoured. With the current data, tensor modes are not detected; the large prior volume on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r results in moderate evidence in favour of r=0.

Bayesian Inference for Retrospective Population Genetics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Genetics, the science of heredity and variation in living organisms, has a central role in medicine, in breeding crops and livestock, and in studying fundamental topics of biological sciences such as evolution and cell functioning. Currently the field of genetics is under a rapid development because of the recent advances in technologies by which molecular data can be obtained from living organisms. In order that most information from such data can be extracted, the analyses need to be carried out using statistical models that are tailored to take account of the particular genetic processes. In this thesis we formulate and analyze Bayesian models for genetic marker data of contemporary individuals. The major focus is on the modeling of the unobserved recent ancestry of the sampled individuals (say, for tens of generations or so), which is carried out by using explicit probabilistic reconstructions of the pedigree structures accompanied by the gene flows at the marker loci. For such a recent history, the recombination process is the major genetic force that shapes the genomes of the individuals, and it is included in the model by assuming that the recombination fractions between the adjacent markers are known. The posterior distribution of the unobserved history of the individuals is studied conditionally on the observed marker data by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The example analyses consider estimation of the population structure, relatedness structure (both at the level of whole genomes as well as at each marker separately), and haplotype configurations. For situations where the pedigree structure is partially known, an algorithm to create an initial state for the MCMC algorithm is given. Furthermore, the thesis includes an extension of the model for the recent genetic history to situations where also a quantitative phenotype has been measured from the contemporary individuals. In that case the goal is to identify positions on the genome that affect the observed phenotypic values. This task is carried out within the Bayesian framework, where the number and the relative effects of the quantitative trait loci are treated as random variables whose posterior distribution is studied conditionally on the observed genetic and phenotypic data. In addition, the thesis contains an extension of a widely-used haplotyping method, the PHASE algorithm, to settings where genetic material from several individuals has been pooled together, and the allele frequencies of each pool are determined in a single genotyping.

Monte Carlo simulation of Ising chains showing several phase transitions

A Monte Carlo simulation of Ising chains with competing short-range and infiniterange interactions has been carried out. Results show that whenever the system does not enter a metastable state, variation of temperature brings about phase transitions in the Ising chain. These phase transitions, except for two sets of interaction strengths, are generally of higher order and involve changes in the long-range order while the short-range order remains unaffected.

Monte carlo simulation for molecular gas dynamics

The dynamics of low-density flows is governed by the Boltzmann equation of the kinetic theory of gases. This is a nonlinear integro-differential equation and, in general, numerical methods must be used to obtain its solution. The present paper, after a brief review of Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) methods due to Bird, and Belotserkovskii and Yanitskii, studies the details of theDSMC method of Deshpande for mono as well as multicomponent gases. The present method is a statistical particle-in-cell method and is based upon the Kac-Prigogine master equation which reduces to the Boltzmann equation under the hypothesis of molecular chaos. The proposed Markoff model simulating the collisions uses a Poisson distribution for the number of collisions allowed in cells into which the physical space is divided. The model is then extended to a binary mixture of gases and it is shown that it is necessary to perform the collisions in a certain sequence to obtain unbiased simulation.

Role of molecular reorientation in the vitrification of molecular liquids: A Monte Carlo study of the liquid and glassy states of 2,2-dimethylbutane

The liquid and the glassy phases of 2,2-dimethylbutane have been investigated by isothermal isobaric ensemble Monte Carlo simulation. Thermodynamic Properties and radial distribution functions for both the liquid and the glass have been obtained. The radial distribution functions have been classified into three types based on the accessibility of the group. It has been shown that the structure of the Iiquid and the glass can be understood in terms of the above classification of the radial distribution functions. Molecular reorientation plays an important role in the structural rearrangement accompanying glass formation. As much as 35% of the contribution to the increase in the intermolecular interaction energy on vitrification is due to the reorientation of the neighbouring pairs of molecules. The observed changes in the dimerisation energy and the bonding energy distribution function are consistent with the observed structural changes.

Hydrogen Storage Capacity of Carbon-Foams: Grand Canonical Monte Carlo Simulations

Hydrogen storage in the three-dimensional carbon foams is analyzed using classical grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations. The calculated storage capacities of the foams meet the material-based DOE targets and are comparable to the capacities of a bundle of well-separated similar diameter open nanotubes. The pore sizes in the foams are optimized for the best hydrogen uptake. The capacity depends sensitively on the C-H-2 interaction potential, and therefore, the results are presented for its ``weak'' and ``strong'' choices, to offer the lower and upper bounds for the expected capacities. Furthermore, quantum effects on the effective C-H-2 as well as H-2-H-2 interaction potentials are considered. We find that the quantum effects noticeably change the adsorption properties of foams and must be accounted for even at room temperature.

Monte Carlo simulation of low temperature phase diagrams of YBa2Cu3O6+x

We report the results of Monte Carlo simulation of oxygen ordering in the oxygen deficient portion (x<0.5) of YBa2Cu3O6+x at low temperatures. We find qualitative agreement among cluster - variation, Monte Carlo and transfer matrix methods. However, low temperature and ground state simulations clearly indicate the presence of a tetragonal phase. There is also evidence for two second order phase transition lines separating the tetragonal and the �double cell� ortho II phase. The effect of decreasing the inter-chain repulsion on oxygen ordering has also been investigated.

Monte Carlo study of the phase boundary of YBa2Cu3O6 +x

A model hamiltonian previously introduced to study the oxygen ordering is considered. The phase boundary is isolated by studying the relaxation behaviour of the order parameters. Our results are consistent with the published Monte Carlo results except at low temperatures.

Monte Carlo simulation of network formation based on structural fragments in epoxy-anhydride systems

A method combining the Monte Carlo technique and the simple fragment approach has been developed for simulating network formation in amine-catalysed epoxy-anhydride systems. The method affords a detailed insight into the nature and composition of the network, showing the distribution of various fragments. It has been used to characterize the network formation in the reaction of the diglycidyl ester of isophthalic acid with hexahydrophthalic anhydride, catalysed by benzyldimethylamine. Pre-gel properties like number and weight distributions and average molecular weights have been calculated as a function of epoxy conversion, leading to a prediction of the gel-point conversion. Analysis of the simulated network further yields other characteristic properties such as concentration of crosslink points, distribution and concentration of elastically active chains, average molecular weight between crosslinks, sol content and mass fraction of pendent chains. A comparison has been made of the properties obtained through simulation with those predicted by the fragment approach alone, which, however, gives only average properties. The Monte Carlo simulation results clearly show that loops and other cyclic structures occur in the gel. This may account for the differences observed between the results of the simulation and the fragment model in the post-gel phase. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.

The effect of low intra-sublattice repulsion on phase diagram of YBa2Cu3O6+x: A Monte Carlo simulation study

We report the results of Monte Carlo simulation of the phase diagram and oxygen ordering in YBa2Cu3O6+x for low intra-sublattice repulsion. At low temperatures, apart from tetragonal (T), orthorhombic (OI) and 'double cell' ortho II phases, there is evidence for two additional orthorhombic phases labelled here as OIBAR and OIII. At high temperatures, there was no evidence for the decomposition of the OI phase into the T and OI phases. We find qualitative agreement with experimental observations and cluster-variation method results.

Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics simulation of argon clusters andn-alkanes in the confined regions of zeolites

Geometry and energy of argon clusters confined in zeolite NaCaA are compared with those of free clusters. Results indicate the possible existence of magic numbers among the confined clusters. Spectra obtained from instantaneous normal mode analysis of free and confined clusters give a larger percentage of imaginary frequencies for the latter indicating that the confined cluster atoms populate the saddle points of the potential energy surface significantly. The variation of the percentage of imaginary frequencies with temperature during melting is akin to the variation of other properties. It is shown that confined clusters might exhibit inverse surface melting, unlike medium-to-large-sized free clusters that exhibit surface melting. Configurational-bias Monte Carte (CBMC) simulations of n-alkanes in zeolites Y and A are reported. CBMC method gives reliable estimates of the properties relating to the conformation of molecules. Changes in the conformational properties of n-butane and other longer n-alkanes such as n-hexane and n-heptane when they are confined in different zeolites are presented. The changes in the conformational properties of n-butane and n-hexane with temperature and concentration is discussed. In general, in zeolite Y as well as A, there is significant enhancement of the gauche population as compared to the pure unconfined fluid.