Evaluating Spanish pension expenditure under alternativa reform scenario

In this paper we evaluate the quantitative impact that a number ofalternative reform scenarios may have on the total expenditure for publicpensions in Spain. Our quantitative findings can be summarized in twosentences. For all the reforms considered, the financial impact of themechanical effect (change in benefits) is order of magnitudes larger thanthe behavioral impact or change in behavior. For the two Spanish reforms,we find once again that their effect on the outstanding liability of theSpanish Social Security System is essentially negligible: neither themechanical nor the behavioral effects amount to much for the 1997 reform,and amount to very little for the 2002 amendment.

Adverse events to antiretrovirals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: effect on mortality and treatment modification.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) decreases morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients but is associated with considerable adverse events (AEs). METHODS: We examined the effect of AEs to ART on mortality, treatment modifications and drop-out in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. A cross-sectional evaluation of prevalence of 13 clinical and 11 laboratory parameters was performed in 1999 in 1,078 patients on ART. AEs were defined as abnormalities probably or certainly related to ART. A score including the number and severity of AEs was defined. The subsequent progression to death, drop-out and treatment modification due to intolerance were evaluated according to the baseline AE score and characteristics of individual AEs. RESULTS: Of the 1,078 patients, laboratory AEs were reported in 23% and clinical AEs in 45%. During a median follow up of 5.9 years, laboratory AEs were associated with higher mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-1.5; P < 0.001) per score point. For clinical AEs no significant association with increased mortality was found. In contrast, an increasing score for clinical AEs (HR 1.11,95% CI 1.04-1.18; P = 0.002), but not for laboratory AEs (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.97-1.17; P = 0.17), was associated with antiretroviral treatment modification. AEs were not associated with a higher drop-out rate. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of laboratory AEs to antiretroviral drugs is associated with a higher mortality. Physicians seem to change treatments to relieve clinical symptoms, while accepting laboratory AEs. Minimizing laboratory drug toxicity seems warranted and its influence on survival should be further evaluated.

Pension plan funding and stock market efficiency

The paper argues that the market signifficantly overvalues firms with severely underfunded pension plans. These companies earn lower stock returns than firms with healthier pension plans for at least five years after the first emergence of the underfunding. The low returns are not explained by risk, price momentum, earnings momentum, or accruals. Further, the evidence suggests that investors do not anticipate the impact of the pension liability on future earnings, and they are surprised when the negative implications of underfunding ultimately materialize. Finally, underfunded firms have poor operating performance, and they earn low returns, although they are value companies.

Life-time redistribution effects of the Spanish public pension system

The paper analyses the inter and intragenerational redistribution effects ofthe public pensions system in Spain. This is achieved by first comparing the expected present value of life-time income transfers (PVT) and internalrates of return (IRR) of different population cohorts. Secondly, we study the intragenerational aspects of the Spanish public pensions by calculating PVTs the IRRs for workers of different categories, grouped by earnings, gender and marital status.The results obtained show the nature of the important intergenerational effects of the Social Security System in Spain. The oldest 1935 cohort clearlybenefits in relation to the youngest 1965 cohort. This is basically due to thegap between current wages and the contribution bases established in the 60s and 70s in Spain during the early stages of the Social Security System, and to the worsening shortfall in Social Security funding, combined with the longer of life expectancy.In addition, intragenerational effects exist by income levels. For contributors who pay between the minimum and the maximum allowable contribution bases, net transfers and rates of return are higher in actuarial terms for high incomecontributors. The social security `dealï is again more profitable for highincome individuals since they contribute at the maximum basis, with respect tolow income contributors at the minimum basis. This is due to the late entry and a higher survival rate for high income contributors.The system tends to favour women, given that they generally live longer than men and this factor is only partially offset by their lower wages. Married males, given the fact that they have longer life expectancy and leave a pension to their spouse, obtain higher present net transfers too than do single contributors.We close the paper with some comments on the slight impact and moderate effects of proposals for Social Security reform and on how these may change the previously observed redistribution effects.

Portable alphas from pension mispricing

We introduce a new dynamic trading strategy based on the systematic misspricing of U.S. companies sponsoring Defined Benefit pension plans. This portfolio produces an average return of 1.51% monthly between 1989 and 2004, with a Sharpe Ratio of 0.26. The returns of the strategy are not explained by those of primary assets. These returns are not related to those of benchmarks in the alternative investments industry either. Hence, we are in the presence of a "pure alpha" strategy that can be ported into a large variety of portfolios to significantly enhance their performance.

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa Public Employees’ Retirement System (IPERS) I-Que Pension Administration System for the period March 24, 2009 through April 22, 2009

Report on a review of selected general and application controls over the Iowa Public Employees’ Retirement System (IPERS) I-Que Pension Administration System for the period March 24, 2009 through April 22, 2009

Reproductibilité et discussion des différents biais d'un questionnaire de fréquence alimentaire adapté à une population de femmes suisses âgées (>75ans)

Résumé: Un des domaines de prédilection de la recherche préventive en ostéoporose, est l'alimentation. L'étude « EVANIBUS » s'inscrit dans le cadre de cette recherche. Un de ses buts est de cibler à travers un questionnaire de fréquence alimentaire chez une population féminine âgée de plus de 75 ans, l'alimentation à risque pour l'ostéoporose. Le choix du questionnaire pour cette étude s'est porté sur le «Food Frequency Questionnaire», élaboré et validé sur une population pré-ménopausique écossaise par Susan New. Ce questionnaire se répartit en différents groupes et sous-groupes alimentaires. A l'aide de tables nutritionnelles les principaux micronutriments essentiels à la santé osseuse contenus dans lés sous-groupes alimentaires ont été calculés. Avant d'utiliser un questionnaire de fréquence alimentaire dans une population différente, il est nécessaire de procéder à une adaptation et une nouvelle validation du questionnaire. Cependant, cette procédure nécessite la collaboration d'un spécialiste en nutrition. Pour cette raison, seule la reproductibilité du questionnaire a été testée. Le test choisi est la première et deuxième étape du test de Bland-Altman. La reproductibilité s'établit entre les 2 mesures (1 mois d'intervalle) de la fréquence moyenne de consommation obtenue pour chaque item (groupes et sous-groupes alimentaires). Les résultats montrent que seule une minorité d'item présente une acceptation des 2 étapes du test de Bland-Altman. Pour expliquer cette mauvaise reproductibilité, les biais systématiques ont été mis en évidence et analysés en détails. Les erreurs dues à la méthodologie sont également analysées. Ces dernières sont en principe évitables. C'est l'absence d'adaptation du questionnaire qui semble en être la cause principale. A cet effet des mesures de correction sont proposées, telles qu'un pilotage du questionnaire dans un échantillon de la population cible. L'analyse du questionnaire relève également une diminution globale de la consommation lors de la deuxième mesure. On émet alors, l'hypothèse d'une influence météorologique par l'intermédiaire d'une hausse des températures.

Modification de la composition des cigarettes durant te XXe siècle: rôle de l'industrie du tabac et effet sur la dépendance tabagique [Chemicals added to cigarettes and their effects on tobacco dependence]

This paper summarizes data on the factors involved in addiction and dependence to cigarettes. Nicotine has been intensively studied by the tobacco industry, for instance for its addictive effect at the lowest possible rates. The addition of diammonium phosphate and urea produces an alcalinization of the pH of cigarette smoke, and promotes the absorption and the trans-membrane passage of nicotine. The taste, the smell of smoke, and the visual aspect of the pack of cigarettes are also sensory components that promote addiction. Finally, menthol, sugar, cocoa and liquorice added to cigarettes also play a role in dependence and addiction to cigarettes by, for instance, making an anesthetic effect on the airways.

Numerical simulation of ambient seismic wavefield modification caused by pore-fluid effects in an oil reservoir

We have modeled numerically the seismic response of a poroelastic inclusion with properties applicable to an oil reservoir that interacts with an ambient wavefield. The model includes wave-induced fluid flow caused by pressure differences between mesoscopic-scale (i.e., in the order of centimeters to meters) heterogeneities. We used a viscoelastic approximation on the macroscopic scale to implement the attenuation and dispersion resulting from this mesoscopic-scale theory in numerical simulations of wave propagation on the kilometer scale. This upscaling method includes finite-element modeling of wave-induced fluid flow to determine effective seismic properties of the poroelastic media, such as attenuation of P- and S-waves. The fitted, equivalent, viscoelastic behavior is implemented in finite-difference wave propagation simulations. With this two-stage process, we model numerically the quasi-poroelastic wave-propagation on the kilometer scale and study the impact of fluid properties and fluid saturation on the modeled seismic amplitudes. In particular, we addressed the question of whether poroelastic effects within an oil reservoir may be a plausible explanation for low-frequency ambient wavefield modifications observed at oil fields in recent years. Our results indicate that ambient wavefield modification is expected to occur for oil reservoirs exhibiting high attenuation. Whether or not such modifications can be detected in surface recordings, however, will depend on acquisition design and noise mitigation processing as well as site-specific conditions, such as the geologic complexity of the subsurface, the nature of the ambient wavefield, and the amount of surface noise.

Like-acetylglucosaminyltransferase (LARGE)-dependent modification of dystroglycan at Thr-317/319 is required for laminin binding and arenavirus infection.

α-dystroglycan is a highly O-glycosylated extracellular matrix receptor that is required for anchoring of the basement membrane to the cell surface and for the entry of Old World arenaviruses into cells. Like-acetylglucosaminyltransferase (LARGE) is a key molecule that binds to the N-terminal domain of α-dystroglycan and attaches ligand-binding moieties to phosphorylated O-mannose on α-dystroglycan. Here we show that the LARGE modification required for laminin- and virus-binding occurs on specific Thr residues located at the extreme N terminus of the mucin-like domain of α-dystroglycan. Deletion and mutation analyses demonstrate that the ligand-binding activity of α-dystroglycan is conferred primarily by LARGE modification at Thr-317 and -319, within the highly conserved first 18 amino acids of the mucin-like domain. The importance of these paired residues in laminin-binding and clustering activity on myoblasts and in arenavirus cell entry is confirmed by mutational analysis with full-length dystroglycan. We further demonstrate that a sequence of five amino acids, Thr(317)ProThr(319)ProVal, contains phosphorylated O-glycosylation and, when modified by LARGE is sufficient for laminin-binding. Because the N-terminal region adjacent to the paired Thr residues is removed during posttranslational maturation of dystroglycan, our results demonstrate that the ligand-binding activity resides at the extreme N terminus of mature α-dystroglycan and is crucial for α-dystroglycan to coordinate the assembly of extracellular matrix proteins and to bind arenaviruses on the cell surface.