Estimatin of roughness lengths with a ship-mounted ADCP from Knudedyb, Denmark in October 2009

The hydraulic effect of asymmetric compound bedforms on tidal currents was assessed from field measurements of flow velocity in the Knudedyb tidal inlet, Denmark. Large asymmetric bedforms with smaller superimposed ones are a common feature of sandy shallow water environments and are known to act as hydraulic roughness elements in dependence with flow direction. The presence of a flow separation zone on the bedform lee was estimated through analysis of the measured velocity directions and the calculation of the flow separation line. The Law of the Wall was used to calculate roughness lengths and shear velocities from log-linear segments sought on transect-averaged and single-location velocity profiles. During the ebb tide a permanent flow separation zone was established over the steep (10-20°) lee sides of the ebb-oriented primary bedforms, which generated a consequent drag on the flow. During the flood, no flow separation was induced by the gentle (2°) lee side of the primary bedforms except over the steepest (10°) part of the lee side where a small separation zone was sometimes observed. As a result, hydraulic roughness was only due to the superimposed bedforms. The parameterized flow separation line was found to underestimate the length of the flow separation zone of the primary bedforms. A better estimation of the presence and shape of the flow separation zone over complex bedforms in a tidal environment still needs to be determined; in particular the relationship between flow separation zone and bedform geometry (asymmetry, relative height or slope of the lee side) is unclear. This would improve the prediction of complex bedform roughness in tidal flows.

Juvenile–adult tree associations in a continental Mediterranean ecosystem: no evidence for sustained and general facilitation at increased aridity

Question: How do tree species identity, microhabitat and water availability affect inter- and intra-specific interactions between juvenile and adult woody plants? Location: Continental Mediterranean forests in Alto Tajo Natural Park, Guadalajara, Spain. Methods: A total of 2066 juveniles and adults of four co-occurring tree species were mapped in 17 plots. The frequency of juveniles at different microhabitats and water availability levels was analysed using log-linear models. We used nearest-neighbour contingency table analysis of spatial segregation and J-functions to describe the spatial patterns. Results: We found a complex spatial pattern that varied according to species identity and microhabitat. Recruitment was more frequent in gaps for Quercus ilex, while the other three species recruited preferentially under shrubs or trees depending on the water availability level. Juveniles were not spatially associated to conspecific adults, experiencing segregation from them inmany cases. Spatial associations, both positive and negative, were more common at higher water availability levels. Conclusions: Our results do not agree with expectations from the stressgradient hypothesis, suggesting that positive interactions do not increase in importance with increasing aridity in the study ecosystem. Regeneration patterns are species-specific and depend on microhabitat characteristics and dispersal strategies. In general, juveniles do not look for conspecific adult protection. This work contributes to the understanding of species co-existence, proving the importance of considering a multispecies approach at several plots to overcome limitations of simple pair-wise comparisons in a limited number of sites.

Frequency and Intensity of drought events over Ebro River basin.

Lately, several researchers have pointed out that climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions, simultaneously increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall events. These changes could have consequences regarding rainfall regime, erosion, sediment transport and water quality, soil management, and new designs in diversion ditches. Climate change is expected to result in increasingly unpredictable and variable rainfall, in amount and timing, changing seasonal patterns and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events. Consequently, the evolution of frequency and intensity of drought periods is of most important as in agro-ecosystems many processes will be affected by them. Realising the complex and important consequences of an increasing frequency of extreme droughts at the Ebro River basin, our aim is to study the evolution of drought events at this site statistically, with emphasis on the occurrence and intensity of them. For this purpose, fourteen meteorological stations were selected based on the length of the rainfall series and the climatic classification to obtain a representative untreated dataset from the river basin. Daily rainfall series from 1957 to 2002 were obtained from each meteorological station and no-rain period frequency as the consecutive numbers of days were extracted. Based on this data, we study changes in the probability distribution in several sub-periods. Moreover we used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for identification of drought events in a year scale and then we use this index to fit log-linear models to the contingency tables between the SPI index and the sub-periods, this adjusted is carried out with the help of ANOVA inference.

Operational short term health impact assessment of air pollution modelling system over Europe

The last decade, scientific studies have indicated an association between air pollution to which people are exposed and wide range of adverse health outcomes. We have developed a tool which is based on a model (MM5-CMAQ) running over Europe with 50 km spatial resolution, based on EMEP annual emissions, to produce a short-term forecast of the impact on health. In order to estimate the mortality change (forecasted for the next 24 hours) we have chosen a log-linear (Poisson) regression form to estimate the concentration-response function. The parameters involved in the C-R function have been estimated based on epidemiological studies, which have been published. Finally, we have derived the relationship between concentration change and mortality change from the C-R function which is the final health impact function.

Dual roles for DNA sequence identity and the mismatch repair system in the regulation of mitotic crossing-over in yeast

Sequence divergence acts as a potent barrier to homologous recombination; much of this barrier derives from an antirecombination activity exerted by mismatch repair proteins. An inverted repeat assay system with recombination substrates ranging in identity from 74% to 100% has been used to define the relationship between sequence divergence and the rate of mitotic crossing-over in yeast. To elucidate the role of the mismatch repair machinery in regulating recombination between mismatched substrates, we performed experiments in both wild-type and mismatch repair defective strains. We find that a single mismatch is sufficient to inhibit recombination between otherwise identical sequences, and that this inhibition is dependent on the mismatch repair system. Additional mismatches have a cumulative negative effect on the recombination rate. With sequence divergence of up to approximately 10%, the inhibitory effect of mismatches results mainly from antirecombination activity of the mismatch repair system. With greater levels of divergence, recombination is inefficient even in the absence of mismatch repair activity. In both wild-type and mismatch repair defective strains, an approximate log-linear relationship is observed between the recombination rate and the level of sequence divergence.

Diversity for Texts Builds in Language L(MT) II: Indexes Based in Abundances

One saw previously that indications of diversity IT and the one of Shannon permits to characterize globally by only one number one fundamental aspects of the text structure. However a more precise knowledge of this structure requires specific abundance distributions and the use, to represent this one, of a suitable mathematical model. Among the numerous models that would be either susceptible to be proposed, the only one that present a real convenient interest are simplest. One will limit itself to study applied three of it to the language L(MT): the log-linear, the log-normal and Mac Arthur's models very used for the calculation of the diversity of the species of ecosystems, and used, we believe that for the first time, in the calculation of the diversity of a text written in a certain language, in our case L(MT). One will show advantages and inconveniences of each of these model types, methods permitting to adjust them to text data and in short tests that permit to decide if this adjustment is acceptable.

Disentangling the impact of seroconversion age and set-point viral load on ART-free HIV survival

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Improved slope adjustment functions for soil erosion prediction

Numerous studies in the last 60 years have investigated the relationship between land slope and soil erosion rates. However, relatively few of these have investigated slope gradient responses: ( a) for steep slopes, (b) for specific erosion processes, and ( c) as a function of soil properties. Simulated rainfall was applied in the laboratory on 16 soils and 16 overburdens at 100 mm/h to 3 replicates of unconsolidated flume plots 3 m long by 0.8 m wide and 0.15 m deep at slopes of 20, 5, 10, 15, and 30% slope in that order. Sediment delivery at each slope was measured to determine the relationship between slope steepness and erosion rate. Data from this study were evaluated alongside data and existing slope adjustment functions from more than 55 other studies from the literature. Data and the literature strongly support a logistic slope adjustment function of the form S = A + B/[1 + exp (C - D sin theta)] where S is the slope adjustment factor and A, B, C, and D are coefficients that depend on the dominant detachment and transport processes. Average coefficient values when interill-only processes are active are A - 1.50, B 6.51, C 0.94, and D 5.30 (r(2) = 0.99). When rill erosion is also potentially active, the average slope response is greater and coefficient values are A - 1.12, B 16.05, C 2.61, and D 8.32 (r(2) = 0.93). The interill-only function predicts increases in sediment delivery rates from 5 to 30% slope that are approximately double the predictions based on existing published interill functions. The rill + interill function is similar to a previously reported value. The above relationships represent a mean slope response for all soils, yet the response of individual soils varied substantially from a 2.5-fold to a 50-fold increase over the range of slopes studied. The magnitude of the slope response was found to be inversely related ( log - log linear) to the dispersed silt and clay content of the soil, and 3 slope adjustment equations are proposed that provide a better estimate of slope response when this soil property is known. Evaluation of the slope adjustment equations proposed in this paper using independent datasets showed that the new equations can improve soil erosion predictions.

The v-MFG test: Investigating maternal, offspring and maternal-fetal genetic incompatibility effects on disease and viability

The MFG test is a family-based association test that detects genetic effects contributing to disease in offspring, including offspring allelic effects, maternal allelic effects and MFG incompatibility effects. Like many other family-based association tests, it assumes that the offspring survival and the offspring-parent genotypes are conditionally independent provided the offspring is affected. However, when the putative disease-increasing locus can affect another competing phenotype, for example, offspring viability, the conditional independence assumption fails and these tests could lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the role of the gene in disease. We propose the v-MFG test to adjust for the genetic effects on one phenotype, e.g., viability, when testing the effects of that locus on another phenotype, e.g., disease. Using genotype data from nuclear families containing parents and at least one affected offspring, the v-MFG test models the distribution of family genotypes conditional on offspring phenotypes. It simultaneously estimates genetic effects on two phenotypes, viability and disease. Simulations show that the v-MFG test produces accurate genetic effect estimates on disease as well as on viability under several different scenarios. It generates accurate type-I error rates and provides adequate power with moderate sample sizes to detect genetic effects on disease risk when viability is reduced. We demonstrate the v-MFG test with HLA-DRB1 data from study participants with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and their parents, we show that the v-MFG test successfully detects an MFG incompatibility effect on RA while simultaneously adjusting for a possible viability loss.

Institutions and firm ownership structure:evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

FDI plays a key role in development, particularly in resource-constrained transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe with relatively low savings rates. Gains from technology transfer play a critical role in motivating FDI, yet potential for it may be hampered by a large technology gap between the source and host country. While the extent of this gap has traditionally been attributed to education, skills and capital intensity, recent literature has also emphasized the possible role of institutional environment in this respect. Despite tremendous interest among policy-makers and academics to understand the factors attracting FDI (Bevan and Estrin, 2000; Globerman and Shapiro, 2003) our knowledge about the effects of institutions on the location choice and ownership structure of foreign firms remains limited. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by examining the link between institutions and foreign ownership structures. To the best of our knowledge, Javorcik (2004) is the only papers, which use firm-level data to analyse the role of institutional quality on an outward investor’s entry mode in transition countries. Our paper extends Javorcik (2004) in a number of ways: (a) rather than a cross-section, we use panel data for the period 1997-2006; (b) rather than a binary variable, we use the percentage foreign ownership as continuous variable; (c) we consider multi-dimensional institutional variables, such as corruption, intellectual property rights protection and government stability. We also use factor analysis to generate a composite index of institutional quality and see how stronger institutional environment could affect foreign ownership; (d) we explore how the distance between institutional environment in source and host countries affect foreign ownership in a host country. The firm-level data used includes both domestic and foreign firms for the period 1997-2006 and is drawn from ORBIS, a commercially available dataset provided by Bureau van Dijk. In order to examine the link between institutions and foreign ownership structures, we estimate four log-linear ownership equations/specifications augmented by institutional and other control variables. We find evidence that the decision of a foreign firm to either locate its subsidiary or acquire an existing domestic firm depends not only on factor cost differences but also on differences in institutional environment between the host and source countries.

Classical and technological convergence:beyond the Solow-Swann model

Recent investigations into cross-country convergence follow Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) in using a log-linear approximation to the Swan-Solow growth model to specify regressions. These studies tend to assume a common and exogenous technology. In contrast, the technology catch-up literature endogenises the growth of technology. The use of capital stock data renders the approximations and over-identification of the Mankiw model unnecessary and enables us, using dynamic panel estimation, to estimate the separate contributions of diminishing returns and technology transfer to the rate of conditional convergence. We find that both effects are important.

Weakly-constrained codes for suppression of patterning effects in digital communications

We propose weakly-constrained stream and block codes with tunable pattern-dependent statistics and demonstrate that the block code capacity at large block sizes is close to the the prediction obtained from a simple Markov model published earlier. We demonstrate the feasibility of the code by presenting original encoding and decoding algorithms with a complexity log-linear in the block size and with modest table memory requirements. We also show that when such codes are used for mitigation of patterning effects in optical fibre communications, a gain of about 0.5dB is possible under realistic conditions, at the expense of small redundancy 10%). © 2006 IEEE.

Reliability analysis of encapsulation methods for lead -based paint through an accelerated life testing

The adverse health effects of long-term exposure to lead are well established, with major uptake into the human body occurring mainly through oral ingestion by young children. Lead-based paint was frequently used in homes built before 1978, particularly in inner-city areas. Minority populations experience the effects of lead poisoning disproportionately. ^ Lead-based paint abatement is costly. In the United States, residents of about 400,000 homes, occupied by 900,000 young children, lack the means to correct lead-based paint hazards. The magnitude of this problem demands research on affordable methods of hazard control. One method is encapsulation, defined as any covering or coating that acts as a permanent barrier between the lead-based paint surface and the environment. ^ Two encapsulants were tested for reliability and effective life span through an accelerated lifetime experiment that applied stresses exceeding those encountered under normal use conditions. The resulting time-to-failure data were used to extrapolate the failure time under conditions of normal use. Statistical analysis and models of the test data allow forecasting of long-term reliability relative to the 20-year encapsulation requirement. Typical housing material specimens simulating walls and doors coated with lead-based paint were overstressed before encapsulation. A second, un-aged set was also tested. Specimens were monitored after the stress test with a surface chemical testing pad to identify the presence of lead breaking through the encapsulant. ^ Graphical analysis proposed by Shapiro and Meeker and the general log-linear model developed by Cox were used to obtain results. Findings for the 80% reliability time to failure varied, with close to 21 years of life under normal use conditions for encapsulant A. The application of product A on the aged gypsum and aged wood substrates yielded slightly lower times. Encapsulant B had an 80% reliable life of 19.78 years. ^ This study reveals that encapsulation technologies can offer safe and effective control of lead-based paint hazards and may be less expensive than other options. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the CDC are committed to eliminating childhood lead poisoning by 2010. This ambitious target is feasible, provided there is an efficient application of innovative technology, a goal to which this study aims to contribute. ^

Aids em idosos no Brasil no período de 2000 a 2012: uma análise de série temporal e dos fatores contextuais associados

The characteristics profile of individuals who develop AIDS in Brazil has changed over time. Among these modifications, a worrying finding is the increased incidence of AIDS in the elderly across the country. But, however, is not yet clear whether the increase in AIDS cases is sufficient to produce a change in the trend of measures in recent years in the Brazilian states, and this increase has an effect from the socioeconomic and demographic indicators. In this sense, the objective of this study is to analyze the AIDS incidence rates among the elderly in Brazil and its effect on socioeconomic and demographic inequalities in the period 2000 to 2012. This is an ecological time-series study to meet behavior of the time series of the incidence rates of AIDS in the elderly from 2000 to 2012. the rates were calculated using the secondary data from Diseases Information System Notification and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Data were analyzed statistically to know the trends in incidence rates, by polynomial regression model and joinpoint log-linear regression model, but also the simple linear regression analysis to find the relationship of trends with variables socioeconomic and demographic. SPSS 20.0® and Joinpoint 4.1.1 programs were used. All tests were carried out considering a significance of 5%. After the analysis, in Brazil were reported 62,052 new cases of AIDS in the elderly from 2000 to 2012. During this period, a significant increase was found for males, both aged 50-59 years (APPC: 3.46 %, p <0.001), such as above 59 years (AAPC: 4.38%; p <0.001). For females, the increase was significant and has the largest increments in the time series, when compared to males in both age groups (AAPC: 4.62%, p <0.001 and AAPC: 6.53%; p <0.001) respectively. The largest increases are observed in women and in the states of North and Northeast. In the Southeast Region is observed stabilization of rates throughout the series. The reason of trends between the sexes had a significant reduction, but also an approach in both age groups of the study, reaching a ratio of 1.7 males for every female in the youngest age group. The trends were related to illiteracy rates, with increasing social inequality and the lowest human development in the Brazilian states. We conclude that in Brazil the incidence of AIDS in the elderly follows an increasing trend in individuals over 50 years. Noteworthy are the highest rates of study in women and in the states of North and Northeast. In this sense, the country needs to enhance policies towards older people with STD / AIDS, training health professionals and developing effective measures for the prevention and early diagnosis of infected people, especially in places with limited resources and high social inequality. In the long term, it is developing new studies to understand whether the measures taken were effective in reducing the trends identified in this study.

The mosses of Terra Nova National Park, Eastern Newfoundland, a bryofloristic analysis and interpretation

The known moss flora of Terra Nova National Park, eastern Newfoundland, comp~ises 210 species. Eighty-two percent of the moss species occurring in Terra Nova are widespread or widespread-sporadic in Newfoundland. Other Newfoundland distributional elements present in the Terra Nova moss flora are the northwestern, southern, southeastern, and disjunct elements, but four of the mosses occurring in Terra Nova appear to belong to a previously unrecognized northeastern element of the Newfoundland flora. The majority (70.9%) of Terra Nova's mosses are of boreal affinity and are widely distributed in the North American coniferous forest belt. An additional 10.5 percent of the Terra Nova mosses are cosmopolitan while 9.5 percent are temperate and 4.8 percent are arctic-montane species. The remaining 4.3 percent of the mosses are of montane affinity, and disjunct between eastern and western North America. In Terra Nova, temperate species at their northern limit are concentrated in balsam fir stands, while arctic-montane species are restricted to exposed cliffs, scree slopes, and coastal exposures. Montane species are largely confined to exposed or freshwater habitats. Inability to tolerate high summer temperatures limits the distributions of both arctic-montane and montane species. In Terra Nova, species of differing phytogeographic affinities co-occur on cliffs and scree slopes. The microhabitat relationships of five selected species from such habitats were evaluated by Discriminant Functions Analysis and Multiple Regression Analysis. The five mosses have distinct and different microhabitats on cliffs and scree slopes in Terra Nova, and abundance of all but one is associated with variation in at least one microhabitat variable. Micro-distribution of Grimmia torquata, an arctic-montane species at its southern limit, appears to be deterJ]lined by sensitivity to high summer temperatures. Both southern mosses at their northern limit (Aulacomnium androgynum, Isothecium myosuroides) appear to be limited by water availability and, possibly, by low winter temperatures. The two species whose distributions extend both north and south or the study area (Encalypta procera, Eurhynchium pulchellum) show no clear relationship with microclimate. Dispersal factors have played a significant role in the development of the Terra Nova moss flora. Compared to the most likely colonizing source (i .e. the rest of the island of Newfoundland), species with small diaspores have colonized the study area to a proportionately much greater extent than have species with large diaspores. Hierarchical log-linear analysis indicates that this is so for all affinity groups present in Terra Nova. The apparent dispersal effects emphasize the comparatively recent glaciation of the area, and may also have been enhanced by anthropogenic influences. The restriction of some species to specific habitats, or to narrowly defined microhabitats, appears to strengthen selection for easily dispersed taxa.