Qual é o modelo legal das licitações no Brasil?: as reformas legislativas federais no sistema de contratações públicas

A pesquisa tem o objetivo de compreender as características e objetivos do atual modelo legal das licitações públicas no Brasil. Para isso, propõe a análise do percurso e do contexto das reformas legislativas federais realizadas sobre o tema. A pesquisa identifica que até a edição da Lei nº 8.666/93 o instituto das licitações públicas foi marcado por um processo de crescente legalização voltado, de um lado, à ampliação do dever de licitar e, do outro, à unificação do regime das licitações a que os entes da administração pública da União, dos Estados e dos Municípios estão sujeitos. Também constatou haver uma tendência, cujo ápice se atingiu com a edição da Lei nº 8.666/93, voltada à restrição da discricionariedade do administrador público para decidir, concretamente, a melhor forma de licitar. Verificou, ainda, que o processo de legalização das licitações resultante na Lei nº 8.666/93 foi capturado por grupos de interesses específicos – as médias empreiteiras emergentes – que foram capazes de influir em seu favor na modelagem das normas jurídicas. Por fim, demonstrou que o fato de a legislação geral sobre licitações públicas ter sido construída sobre um modelo legal excessivamente normatizado, rígido e procedimentalizado foi responsável, direta e indiretamente, pela fragmentação do sistema de licitações e contratos e pelo surgimento de um movimento de fuga da Lei nº 8.666/93.

Modelagem paramétrica de curvas de crédito no mercado brasileiro

Após a crise financeira de 2008, é perceptível a intensificação de esforços globais para aperfeiçoar métodos de avaliação de risco e ajuste de exposição de capital para tornar o sistema financeiro mundial mais sólido e consistente. O objetivo deste trabalho é propor um modelo de estimação de curvas de crédito privado no Brasil, aplicando a modelagem paramétrica de Nelson & Siegel (1987) a uma amostra de preços de debêntures. Os resultados obtidos poderão ser utilizados para auxiliar reguladores e profissionais de mercado com análises de risco, apreçamento de ativos ilíquidos e percepção de expectativas.

Uma técnica para modelagem de cenários consistentes na previsão da demanda por energia elétrica

As técnicas qualitativas disponiveis para a modelagem de cenários têm sido reconhecidas pela extrema limitação, evidenciada no principio das atividades do processo, como a fase inicial de concepção. As principais restrições têm sido: • inexistência de uma ferramenta que teste a consistência estrutural interna do modelo, ou pela utilização de relações econômicas com fundamentação teórica mas sem interface perfeita com o ambiente, ou pela adoção de variações binárias para testes de validação; • fixação "a priori" dos possíveis cenários, geralmente classificados sob três adjetivos - otimista, mais provável e pessimista - enviesados exatamente pelos atributos das pessoas que fornecem esta informação. o trabalho trata da utilização de uma ferramenta para a interação entre uma técnica que auxilia a geração de modelos, suportada pela lógica relacional com variações a quatro valores e expectativas fundamentadas no conhecimento do decisor acerca do mundo real. Tem em vista a construção de um sistema qualitativo de previsão exploratória, no qual os cenários são obtidos por procedimento essencialmente intuitivo e descritivos, para a demanda regional por eletricidade. Este tipo de abordagem - apresentada por J. Gershuny - visa principalmente ao fornecimento de suporte metodológico para a consistência dos cenários gerados qualitativamente. Desenvolvimento e estruturação do modelo são realizados em etapas, partindo-se de uma relação simples e prosseguindo com a inclusão de variáveis e efeitos que melhoram a explicação do modelo. o trabalho apresenta um conjunto de relações para a demanda regional de eletricidade nos principais setores de consumo residencial, comercial e industrial bem como os cenários resultantes das variações mais prováveis das suas componentes exógenas. Ao final conclui-se que esta técnica é útil em modelos que: • incluem variáveis sociais relevantes e de dificil mensuração; • acreditam na importância da consistência externa entre os resultados gerados pelo modelo e aqueles esperados para a tomada de decisões; • atribuem ao decisor a responsabilidade de compreender a fundamentação da estrutura conceitual do modelo. Adotado este procedimento, o autor aqui recomenda que o modelo seja validado através de um procedimento iterativo de ajustes com a participação do decisor. As técnicas quantitativas poderão ser adotadas em seguida, tendo o modelo como elemento de consistência.

Algorítmo de mapeamento usando modelagem probabilística

SOUZA, Anderson A.S. ; MEDEIROS, Adelardo A. D. ; GONÇALVES, Luiz Marcos G. . Algorítmo de mapeamento usando modelagem probabilística. In: SIMPOSIO BRASILEIRO DE AUTOMAÇÃO INTELIGENTE, 2007, Natal. Anais... Natal, 2007.

Fatores críticos de sucesso como antecedentes da aceitação de um sistema de informação em uma universidade federal

In recent decades the public sector comes under pressure in order to improve its performance. The use of Information Technology (IT) has been a tool increasingly used in reaching that goal. Thus, it has become an important issue in public organizations, particularly in institutions of higher education, determine which factors influence the acceptance and use of technology, impacting on the success of its implementation and the desired organizational results. The Technology Acceptance Model - TAM was used as the basis for this study and is based on the constructs perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. However, when it comes to integrated management systems due to the complexity of its implementation,organizational factors were added to thus seek further explanation of the acceptance of such systems. Thus, added to the model five TAM constructs related to critical success factors in implementing ERP systems, they are: support of top management, communication, training, cooperation, and technological complexity (BUENO and SALMERON, 2008). Based on the foregoing, launches the following research problem: What factors influence the acceptance and use of SIE / module academic at the Federal University of Para, from the users' perception of teachers and technicians? The purpose of this study was to identify the influence of organizational factors, and behavioral antecedents of behavioral intention to use the SIE / module academic UFPA in the perspective of teachers and technical users. This is applied research, exploratory and descriptive, quantitative with the implementation of a survey, and data collection occurred through a structured questionnaire applied to a sample of 229 teachers and 30 technical and administrative staff. Data analysis was carried out through descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling with the technique of partial least squares (PLS). Effected primarily to assess the measurement model, which were verified reliability, convergent and discriminant validity for all indicators and constructs. Then the structural model was analyzed using the bootstrap resampling technique like. In assessing statistical significance, all hypotheses were supported. The coefficient of determination (R ²) was high or average in five of the six endogenous variables, so the model explains 47.3% of the variation in behavioral intention. It is noteworthy that among the antecedents of behavioral intention (BI) analyzed in this study, perceived usefulness is the variable that has a greater effect on behavioral intention, followed by ease of use (PEU) and attitude (AT). Among the organizational aspects (critical success factors) studied technological complexity (TC) and training (ERT) were those with greatest effect on behavioral intention to use, although these effects were lower than those produced by behavioral factors (originating from TAM). It is pointed out further that the support of senior management (TMS) showed, among all variables, the least effect on the intention to use (BI) and was followed by communications (COM) and cooperation (CO), which exert a low effect on behavioral intention (BI). Therefore, as other studies on the TAM constructs were adequate for the present research. Thus, the study contributed towards proving evidence that the Technology Acceptance Model can be applied to predict the acceptance of integrated management systems, even in public. Keywords: Technology

Crenças normativas e comportamentais e suas influências na intenção de adoção de um sistema de informação: um estudo na área de compras da UFPA

The study aims to identify the factors that influence the behavior intention to adopt an academic Information System (SIE), in an environment of mandatory use, applied in the procurement process at the Federal University of Pará (UFPA). For this, it was used a model of innovation adoption and technology acceptance (TAM), focused in attitudes and intentions regarding the behavior intention. The research was conducted a quantitative survey, through survey in a sample of 96 administrative staff of the researched institution. For data analysis, it was used structural equation modeling (SEM), using the partial least squares method (Partial Least Square PLS-PM). As to results, the constructs attitude and subjective norms were confirmed as strong predictors of behavioral intention in a pre-adoption stage. Despite the use of SIE is required, the perceived voluntariness also predicts the behavior intention. Regarding attitude, classical variables of TAM, like as ease of use and perceived usefulness, appear as the main influence of attitude towards the system. It is hoped that the results of this study may provide subsidies for more efficient management of the process of implementing systems and information technologies, particularly in public universities

Modelagem do desempenho ambiental dos projetos de exploração e produção aplicando equações estruturais

A legislação ambiental e os principais agentes que se relacionam com a empresa se constituem em fatores exógenos que não podem ser negligenciados ao formular-se e avaliar-se a política ambiental corporativa. As influências exógenas e seus efeitos sobre a gestão ambiental e o gerenciamento de projetos de exploração e produção (E&P) e, por essa via, sobre o desempenho ambiental, foram objetos de estudo desta tese. Embora o desempenho ambiental seja um assunto relevante, a pesquisa sobre esse tema ainda é escassa. Tal carência desponta ainda mais acentuada quando se aborda o desempenho ambiental de projetos na indústria de petróleo e gás. O principal objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a relação entre a legislação ambiental vigente, as ações de órgãos reguladores, fornecedores, empresas terceirizadas e comunidades locais e o desempenho ambiental dos projetos de E&P na indústria de petróleo e gás e, também, analisar os efeitos do sistema de gestão ambiental e o gerenciamento dos projetos sobre tal desempenho. Na fase abdutiva, foi conduzido um estudo de caso com abordagem qualitativa em uma grande empresa brasileira do setor de petróleo e gás, na fase dedutiva, foi realizada uma pesquisa survey explanatória de corte transversal com abordagem quantitativa, incluindo 113 projetos de E&P de cinco unidades executoras da empresa. Foi formulado um modelo conceitual, com cinco construtos e sete hipóteses de pesquisa, representativo dos efeitos de fatores externos sobre o desempenho ambiental dos projetos de E&P. Os dados foram tratados aplicando a Análise Fatorial Exploratória e a Modelagem de Equações Estruturais com aplicação dos softwares IBM® SPSS® Statistics 20.0 e IBM® SPSS® Amos 18.0. O modelo de equações estruturais foi reespecificado e estimado utilizando o método de Máxima Verossimilhança e o procedimento bootstrap com 2000 reamostragens, até alcançar adequados valores dos índices de ajustamento. O modelo mostrou boa aderência às evidências empíricas, representando uma teoria explicativa dos fatores que influenciam o desempenho ambiental dos projetos de E&P na empresa estudada. As estatísticas descritivas apontaram adequado desempenho dos projetos de E&P com relação aos efluentes descartados, volume de água reutilizada, redução de resíduos e práticas de reciclagem. Identificou-se que projetos de maior porte alcançam melhor desempenho ambiental em relação aos de menor tamanho. Não foram achadas diferenças significativas entre os desempenhos de projetos executados por unidades operacionais distintas. Os resultados da modelagem indicaram que nem a legislação ambiental, nem os agentes externos exercem influência significativa sobre a sistemática da gestão dos projetos de E&P. Os agentes externos atuam sobre a gestão ambiental da empresa exercitando capacidades colaborativas, obstrutivas e propositivas. A legislação ambiental é percebida como entrave ao desenvolvimento dos projetos ao longo de seu ciclo de vida, principalmente, pelas deficiências dos órgãos ambientais. Identificou-se que o sistema de gestão ambiental influencia diretamente o Programa de Desenvolvimento e Execução de Projetos de E&P, que, por sua vez, provoca efeitos diretos e indiretos sobre o desempenho ambiental. Finalmente, comprovou-se que o Sistema de Gestão Ambiental da empresa é determinante para o desempenho ambiental dos projetos de E&P, tanto pelos seus efeitos diretos, como pelos indiretos, estes últimos mediados pela sistemática de gestão dos projetos de E&P

Modelagem matemática para o transporte de partículas sujeitas a múltiplos mecanismos de retenção

Discrepancies between classical model predictions and experimental data for deep bed filtration have been reported by various authors. In order to understand these discrepancies, an analytic continuum model for deep bed filtration is proposed. In this model, a filter coefficient is attributed to each distinct retention mechanism (straining, diffusion, gravity interception, etc.). It was shown that these coefficients generally cannot be merged into an effective filter coefficient, as considered in the classical model. Furthermore, the derived analytic solutions for the proposed model were applied for fitting experimental data, and a very good agreement between experimental data and proposed model predictions were obtained. Comparison of the obtained results with empirical correlations allowed identifying the dominant retention mechanisms. In addition, it was shown that the larger the ratio of particle to pore sizes, the more intensive the straining mechanism and the larger the discrepancies between experimental data and classical model predictions. The classical model and proposed model were compared via statistical analysis. The obtained p values allow concluding that the proposed model should be preferred especially when straining plays an important role. In addition, deep bed filtration with finite retention capacity was studied. This work also involves the study of filtration of particles through porous media with a finite capacity of filtration. It was observed, in this case, that is necessary to consider changes in the boundary conditions through time evolution. It was obtained a solution for such a model using different functions of filtration coefficients. Besides that, it was shown how to build a solution for any filtration coefficient. It was seen that, even considering the same filtration coefficient, the classic model and the one here propposed, show different predictions for the concentration of particles retained in the porous media and for the suspended particles at the exit of the media

Uma modelagem de indicadores de desempenho para instituições de ensino superior no Brasil na abordagem do balanced scorecard: um estudo com instituições privadas

This Master of Science Thesis deals with a BSC modeling for higher education institution focusing on private institution in the Brazilian context. It‟s accomplished a literature review in order to understand the BSC and its application to for profit and non for profit organizations and as a main result it is proposed a BSC conceptual model with a new perspective (Government) and a change in the hierarchy of the main BSC perspective equaling financial to customer/society. Taking the national higher education assessment system of Education Ministry indicators a model is deployed and the relations between the indicators are measured with the Pearson correlation coefficient. As a result a model emerges with sound relations of indicators but a improvement in the financial indicators is needed

Desenvolvimento de um sistema de indicadores de desempenho para empreendimentos em construção civil, utilizando a abordagem macroergonômica

This paper presents the validation of the Performance Indicator System for Projects under Construction - SIDECC. The goal was to develop a system of performance indicators from the macroergonômica approach, considering criteria of usefulness, practicality and applicability and the concept of continuous improvement in the construction industry. The validation process SIDECC consisted of three distinct models. Modeling I corresponded to the theoretical development and validation of a system of indicators. Modeling II concerns the development and validation of multi- indicator system. For this modeling, we used the Mother of Use and Importance and Multivariate Analysis. Modeling III corresponded to the validation situated, which consisted of a case study of a work of construction of buildings, which were applied and analyzed the results of modeling II. This work resulted in the development of an applied and tested for the construction of an integrated system of performance indicators methodology, involving aspects of production, quality, environmental, health and safety. It is inferred that the SIDECC can be applied, in full or in part, the construction companies as a whole, as well as in other economic sectors

Uma aplicação de análise de decisão com o método AHP Processo de hierarquia analítica: um estudo sobre adoção de Sistema eletrônico de cobrança no Transporte público urbano

This thesis carries through an application of Analysis of Multicriterion Decision with use of the method of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in the problematic one of taking of decision of the adoption of electronic collecting in the system of urban transport in the country, a subject that has been controversial. A modeling of criteria and alternatives is carried through and applied a questionnaire based on method AHP the excellent actors in the system of urban transport - Leading of the Managing Agency Public Municipal theatre of Urban Transports, Controller of Company of Bus, Controller of Labor union, Controller of Union of Companies, Communitarian Leader. The considered alternatives were: the maintenance of the current state with collectors, the implementation of electronic collection without collectors, and the implementation of electronic collection with collectors. The used criteria were: job, impact in the fare, control of the system, easiness of use, information. The study was carried through in the city of Natal, RN, where if the adoption of electronic collection argues and where this implementation in some bus lines between Natal and Parnamirim exists, city that integrates the region of the great Natal. The main results of the method evidence in a dimension, the viability of use of method AHP with questionnaire by means of validation of the judgments with analysis of variance beyond proper the normal mechanisms of analysis of consistency to the method, and in another one, the contribution of the analysis boarding multicriterion to become the judgments more clearly. The main results of the analysis help to show that although to models of criteria and distinct judgments of the actors, the method evidenced that it has inclination the adoption of the electronic collection on the current situation, even so with divergences between the maintenance or not of the collector. The research points to the possibility of accomplishment of the application of the AHP in successive rounds of judgments

Metodologia para modelagem, validação e programação de controladores lógicos industriais usando statecharts básicos

Due of industrial informatics several attempts have been done to develop notations and semantics, which are used for classifying and describing different kind of system behavior, particularly in the modeling phase. Such attempts provide the infrastructure to resolve some real problems of engineering and construct practical systems that aim at, mainly, to increase the productivity, quality, and security of the process. Despite the many studies that have attempted to develop friendly methods for industrial controller programming, they are still programmed by conventional trial-and-error methods and, in practice, there is little written documentation on these systems. The ideal solution would be to use a computational environment that allows industrial engineers to implement the system using high-level language and that follows international standards. Accordingly, this work proposes a methodology for plant and control modelling of the discrete event systems that include sequential, parallel and timed operations, using a formalism based on Statecharts, denominated Basic Statechart (BSC). The methodology also permits automatic procedures to validate and implement these systems. To validate our methodology, we presented two case studies with typical examples of the manufacturing sector. The first example shows a sequential control for a tagged machine, which is used to illustrated dependences between the devices of the plant. In the second example, we discuss more than one strategy for controlling a manufacturing cell. The model with no control has 72 states (distinct configurations) and, the model with sequential control generated 20 different states, but they only act in 8 distinct configurations. The model with parallel control generated 210 different states, but these 210 configurations act only in 26 distinct configurations, therefore, one strategy control less restrictive than previous. Lastly, we presented one example for highlight the modular characteristic of our methodology, which it is very important to maintenance of applications. In this example, the sensors for identifying pieces in the plant were removed. So, changes in the control model are needed to transmit the information of the input buffer sensor to the others positions of the cell

Um sistema para estimação da vazão de gás de poços produzindo por Plunger Lift para vaso separador de teste em plataformas de petróleo

This work intends to analyze the behavior of the gas flow of plunger lift wells producing to well testing separators in offshore production platforms to aim a technical procedure to estimate the gas flow during the slug production period. The motivation for this work appeared from the expectation of some wells equipped with plunger lift method by PETROBRAS in Ubarana sea field located at Rio Grande do Norte State coast where the produced fluids measurement is made in well testing separators at the platform. The oil artificial lift method called plunger lift is used when the available energy of the reservoir is not high enough to overcome all the necessary load losses to lift the oil from the bottom of the well to the surface continuously. This method consists, basically, in one free piston acting as a mechanical interface between the formation gas and the produced liquids, greatly increasing the well s lifting efficiency. A pneumatic control valve is mounted at the flow line to control the cycles. When this valve opens, the plunger starts to move from the bottom to the surface of the well lifting all the oil and gas that are above it until to reach the well test separator where the fluids are measured. The well test separator is used to measure all the volumes produced by the well during a certain period of time called production test. In most cases, the separators are designed to measure stabilized flow, in other words, reasonably constant flow by the use of level and pressure electronic controllers (PLC) and by assumption of a steady pressure inside the separator. With plunger lift wells the liquid and gas flow at the surface are cyclical and unstable what causes the appearance of slugs inside the separator, mainly in the gas phase, because introduce significant errors in the measurement system (e.g.: overrange error). The flow gas analysis proposed in this work is based on two mathematical models used together: i) a plunger lift well model proposed by Baruzzi [1] with later modifications made by Bolonhini [2] to built a plunger lift simulator; ii) a two-phase separator model (gas + liquid) based from a three-phase separator model (gas + oil + water) proposed by Nunes [3]. Based on the models above and with field data collected from the well test separator of PUB-02 platform (Ubarana sea field) it was possible to demonstrate that the output gas flow of the separator can be estimate, with a reasonable precision, from the control signal of the Pressure Control Valve (PCV). Several models of the System Identification Toolbox from MATLAB® were analyzed to evaluate which one better fit to the data collected from the field. For validation of the models, it was used the AIC criterion, as well as a variant of the cross validation criterion. The ARX model performance was the best one to fit to the data and, this way, we decided to evaluate a recursive algorithm (RARX) also with real time data. The results were quite promising that indicating the viability to estimate the output gas flow rate from a plunger lift well producing to a well test separator, with the built-in information of the control signal to the PCV