Use of posterior predictive assessments to evaluate model fit in multilevel logistic regression

Assessing the fit of a model is an important final step in any statistical analysis, but this is not straightforward when complex discrete response models are used. Cross validation and posterior predictions have been suggested as methods to aid model criticism. In this paper a comparison is made between four methods of model predictive assessment in the context of a three level logistic regression model for clinical mastitis in dairy cattle; cross validation, a prediction using the full posterior predictive distribution and two “mixed” predictive methods that incorporate higher level random effects simulated from the underlying model distribution. Cross validation is considered a gold standard method but is computationally intensive and thus a comparison is made between posterior predictive assessments and cross validation. The analyses revealed that mixed prediction methods produced results close to cross validation whilst the full posterior predictive assessment gave predictions that were over-optimistic (closer to the observed disease rates) compared with cross validation. A mixed prediction method that simulated random effects from both higher levels was best at identifying the outlying level two (farm-year) units of interest. It is concluded that this mixed prediction method, simulating random effects from both higher levels, is straightforward and may be of value in model criticism of multilevel logistic regression, a technique commonly used for animal health data with a hierarchical structure.

Modeling and Design of Phase Shifted Full Bridge Isolated DC-DC ZVS Converter with Peak Current Mode Control

Nowadays, there is a boom in the use of electrification. Electric vehicles are gaining interest worldwide due to various factors, including climate and environmental awareness. In this thesis, a step-down isolated power supply for electric tractors is investigated, specifically the phase-shifted full-bridge (PSFB) DC-DC with synchronous rectification and zero-voltage switching (ZVS). This converter was selected for its high-power capacity with high efficiency. A 3500 W PSFB converter with peak current control (PCCM) is designed and modeled in MATLAB. The input voltage range is from 550 V to 820 V and the output voltage range is limited to 9 V to 16 V with a maximum output current of 250 A. All components were commercially designed and selected, including magnetics for the high-frequency transformer and inductors, taking into account loss calculations. Zero voltage switching for the lagging leg is achieved at 13% to 100% load. The proven efficiency of the converter is around 90

Stable MPC for tracking with maximal domain of attraction

In this work, a stable MPC that maximizes the domain of attraction of the closed-loop system is proposed. The proposed approach is suitable to real applications in the sense that it accounts for the case of output tracking, it is offset free if the output target is reachable and minimizes the offset if some of the constraints are active at steady state. The new approach is based on the definition of a Minkowski functional related to the input and terminal constraints of the stable infinite horizon MPC. It is also shown that the domain of attraction is defined by the system model and the constraints, and it does not depend on the controller tuning parameters. The proposed controller is illustrated with small order examples of the control literature. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MPC for tracking zone regions

This paper deals with the problem of tracking target sets using a model predictive control (MPC) law. Some MPC applications require a control strategy in which some system outputs are controlled within specified ranges or zones (zone control), while some other variables - possibly including input variables - are steered to fixed target or set-point. In real applications, this problem is often overcome by including and excluding an appropriate penalization for the output errors in the control cost function. In this way, throughout the continuous operation of the process, the control system keeps switching from one controller to another, and even if a stabilizing control law is developed for each of the control configurations, switching among stable controllers not necessarily produces a stable closed loop system. From a theoretical point of view, the control objective of this kind of problem can be seen as a target set (in the output space) instead of a target point, since inside the zones there are no preferences between one point or another. In this work, a stable MPC formulation for constrained linear systems, with several practical properties is developed for this scenario. The concept of distance from a point to a set is exploited to propose an additional cost term, which ensures both, recursive feasibility and local optimality. The performance of the proposed strategy is illustrated by simulation of an ill-conditioned distillation column. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enlarging the domain of attraction of stable MPC controllers, maintaining the output performance

This work presents an alternative way to formulate the stable Model Predictive Control (MPC) optimization problem that allows the enlargement of the domain of attraction, while preserving the controller performance. Based on the dual MPC that uses the null local controller, it proposed the inclusion of an appropriate set of slacked terminal constraints into the control problem. As a result, the domain of attraction is unlimited for the stable modes of the system, and the largest possible for the non-stable modes. Although this controller does not achieve local optimality, simulations show that the input and output performances may be comparable to the ones obtained with the dual MPC that uses the LQR as a local controller. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Controlo preditivo distribuído em edifícios para conforto térmico e alocação de cargas

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Automação e Electrónica Industrial

Controlo preditivo distribuído para conforto térmico em edifícios

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo de Automação e Electrónica Industrial

The effect of fractional order in variable structure control

This paper studies fractional variable structure controllers. Two cases are considered namely, the sliding reference model and the control action, that are generalized from integer into fractional orders. The test bed consists in a mechanical manipulator and the effect of the fractional approach upon the system performance is evaluated. The results show that fractional dynamics, both in the switching surface and the control law are important design algorithms in variable structure controllers.

Visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: revisiting paradigms of epidemiology and control

In the last 20 years, despite the known underestimation of cases, Brazil registered a marked increase in the incidence of visceral leishmaniasis. The main goal of this review is to reflect on some aspects of this zoonosis in Brazil and also to encourage the discussion in order to find more viable, effective and affordable strategies to be implemented by the Brazilian Leishmaniasis Control Program. The current situation of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil might be seen as a paradox: the most important aspects of the disease are known, but so far the control of this disease has not yet been achieved. The current control strategies have not been able to prevent the geographical expansion, and even a rise in the incidence and lethality of visceral leishmaniasis. There is a need not only for a better definition of priority areas, but also for the implementation of a fieldwork monitoring system to the disease surveillance that could permit a further evaluation of the control program in areas where visceral leishmaniasis is endemic.

Comprehensive comparison of a current-source and a voltage-source converter for three-phase EV fast battery chargers

This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of a current-source converter and a voltage-source converter for three-phase electric vehicle (EV) fast battery chargers. Taking into account that the current-source converter (CSC) is a natural buck-type converter, the output voltage can assume a wide range of values, which varies between zero and the maximum instantaneous value of the power grid phase-to-phase voltage. On the other hand, taking into account that the voltage-source converter (VSC) is a natural boost-type converter, the output voltage is always greater than the maximum instantaneous value of the power grid phase-to-phase voltage, and consequently, it is necessary to use a dc-dc buck-type converter for applications as EV fast battery chargers. Along the paper is described in detail the principle of operation of both the CSC and the VSC for EV fast chargers, as well as the main equations of the power theory and current control strategies. The comparison between both converters is mainly established in terms of the total harmonic distortion of the grid current and the estimated efficiency for a range of operation between 10 kW and 50 kW.

Three-phase three-level current-source converter for EVs fast battery charging systems

This paper presents a three-phase three-level fast battery charger for electric vehicles (EVs) based in a current-source converter (CSC). Compared with the traditional voltage-source converters used for fast battery chargers, the CSC can be seen as a natural buck-type converter, i.e., the output voltage can assume a wide range of values, which varies between zero and the maximum instantaneous value of the power grid phase-to-phase voltage. Moreover, using the CSC it is not necessary to use a dc-dc back-end converter in the battery side, and it is also possible to control the grid current in order to obtain a sinusoidal waveform, and in phase with the power grid voltage (unitary power factor). Along the paper is described in detail the proposed CSC for EVs fast battery charging systems: the circuit topology, the power control theory, the current control strategy and the grid synchronization algorithm. Several simulation results of the EV fast battery charger operating with a maximum power of 50 kW are presented.

A bio-inspired computational model for motion detection

Tese de Doutoramento (Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Biomédica)

Economic threshold levels for the velvetbean caterpillar on soybeans in Brazil: the social and the private perspectives

Pest Control is treated as a economic problem. The social and the private perspectives differ due to the consideration of the environmental and social impacts as well as technical aspects such as resistance, resurgence and secondary pests. A mathematical model is developed to determine and compare the social and the private optimum control strategies (which define the Economic Thereshold Levels) for the velvetbean caterpillar on soybeans in Brazil. The crop/pest system incorporates effects of predators and parasites, the soybean natural capacity to compensate for injury and the pesticide effects on both pests and its natural enemies; in the social case, the environmental and social impacts and the effects of pest resistance to the pesticide are incorporated. Consideration of density dependence, weather effects, randomnes of pest attack and risk aversion are discussed. The results can be compared with current control practices and IPM programme recomendations.

Biomphalaria tenagophila/Schistosoma mansoni interaction: premises for a new approach to biological control of schistosomiasis

Biomphalaria tenagophila is very important for schistosomiasis transmission in Brazil. However its mechanisms of interaction with Schistosoma mansoni are still scantly studied. Since this snail displays strains highly susceptible or completely resistant to the parasite infection, the knowledge of that would be a useful tool to understand the mechanism of snail resistance. Particularly, the Taim strain consistently shows absolute resistance against the trematode, and this resistance is a dominant character. A multidisciplinary research group was created aiming at studying B. tenagophila/S. mansoni interaction. The possibility for applying the knowledge acquired to obtain a biological model for the control of S. mansoni transmission in endemic areas is discussed.

Sylvatic triatominae: a new challenge in vector control transmission

Over the last 10 years, Uruguay, Chile and Brazil have been certified as being free from disease transmission by Triatoma infestans, the main domiciliated vector for Chagas disease in the Southern Cone countries. This demonstrates that programmes addressing the vector for the disease's transmission are effective. These programmes have resulted in a dramatic decrease in the incidence of Chagas disease in Latin America. Guatemala was certified a few months ago as being free from disease transmission by Rhodnius prolixus, the main domiciliated vector for Chagas disease in Central American countries. However, the main concern for different countries' current control programmes is the continuity and sustainability of future vector control actions. The prevalence and incidence figures for individuals infected by Trypanosoma cruzi in Mexico and Andean and Central American countries highlights the need for broadened strategies in the struggle against the disease and its vectors. A number of triatomine insects are parasite vectors, each with a different life history. Therefore, it is important that new vector control strategies be proposed, keeping in mind that some species are found in peridomiciliary areas and wild ecotopes. The only viable control strategy is to reduce human interactions with vector insects so that the re-infestation and re-colonisation of human habitats will not take place.