The missing link of crime analysis: A systematic approach to testing competing hypotheses

Crime analysts have traditionally received little guidance from academic researchers in key tasks in the analysis process, specifically the testing of multiple hypotheses and evaluating evidence in a scientific fashion. This article attempts to fill this gap by outlining a method (the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses) of systematically analysing multiple explanations for crime problems. The method is systematic, avoids many cognitive errors common in analysis, and is explicit. It is argued that the implementation of this approach makes analytic products audit-able, the reasoning underpinning them transparent, and provides intelligence managers a rational professional development tool for individual analysts.

Fishing power and standardised catch rates: Implications of missing vessel-characteristic data from the Australian eastern king prawn fishery

Standardised time series of fishery catch rates require collations of fishing power data on vessel characteristics. Linear mixed models were used to quantify fishing power trends and study the effect of missing data encountered when relying on commercial logbooks. For this, Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) harvests were analysed with historical (from vessel surveys) and current (from commercial logbooks) vessel data. Between 1989 and 2010, fishing power increased up to 76%. To date, both forward-filling and, alternatively, omitting records with missing vessel information from commercial logbooks produce broadly similar fishing power increases and standardised catch rates, due to the strong influence of years with complete vessel data (16 out of 23 years of data). However, if gaps in vessel information had not originated randomly and skippers from the most efficient vessels were the most diligent at filling in logbooks, considerable errors would be introduced. Also, the buffering effect of complete years would be short lived as years with missing data accumulate. Given ongoing changes in fleet profile with high-catching vessels fishing proportionately more of the fleet’s effort, compliance with logbook completion, or alternatively ongoing vessel gear surveys, is required for generating accurate estimates of fishing power and standardised catch rates.

Is Mycoplasma bovis a missing component of the bovine respiratory disease complex in Australia?

Background: Bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) is a multi-factorial disease in which numerous factors, such as animal management, pathogen exposure and environmental conditions, contribute to the development of acute respiratory illness in feedlot cattle. The role of specific pathogens in the development of BRDC has been difficult to define because of the complex nature of the disease and the presence of implicated bacterial pathogens in the upper respiratory tract of healthy animals. Mycoplasma bovis is an important pathogen of cattle and recognised as a major contributor to cases of mastitis, caseonecrotic bronchopneumonia, arthritis and otitis media. To date, the role of M.bovis in the development of BRDC of Australian feeder cattle has not been investigated. Methods: In this review, the current literature pertaining to the role of M.bovis in BRDC is evaluated. In addition, preliminary data are presented that identify M.bovis as a potential contributor to BRDC in Australian feedlots, which has not been considered previously. Results and Conclusion: The preliminary results demonstrate detection of M.bovis in samples from all feedlots studied. When considered in the context of the reviewed literature, they support the inclusion of M.bovis on the list of pathogens to be considered during investigations into BRDC in Australia. © 2014 Australian Veterinary Association.

Seixas family papers, undated, 1746-1911, 1926, 1939.

The collection contains items relating to individual members of the family as well as the Seixas family in general. Included are papers of the following persons: Isaac Mendes Seixas (1708/9-1780/1), a copy of A voyage to Hudson's--Bay, by Henry Ellis, inscribed with his name on the title page, along with additional inscriptions on the end papers (1748); and a daily prayer book printed in Amsterdam (title page missing), with an inscription on the first page indicating that the book was owned by Seixas in 1758/9, and subsequently by his grandson, Theodore J. Seixas, in 1816/17.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

A Decentralized Session Management Framework for Heterogeneous Ad-Hoc and Fixed Networks

Wireless technologies are continuously evolving. Second generation cellular networks have gained worldwide acceptance. Wireless LANs are commonly deployed in corporations or university campuses, and their diffusion in public hotspots is growing. Third generation cellular systems are yet to affirm everywhere; still, there is an impressive amount of research ongoing for deploying beyond 3G systems. These new wireless technologies combine the characteristics of WLAN based and cellular networks to provide increased bandwidth. The common direction where all the efforts in wireless technologies are headed is towards an IP-based communication. Telephony services have been the killer application for cellular systems; their evolution to packet-switched networks is a natural path. Effective IP telephony signaling protocols, such as the Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) and the H 323 protocol are needed to establish IP-based telephony sessions. However, IP telephony is just one service example of IP-based communication. IP-based multimedia sessions are expected to become popular and offer a wider range of communication capabilities than pure telephony. In order to conjoin the advances of the future wireless technologies with the potential of IP-based multimedia communication, the next step would be to obtain ubiquitous communication capabilities. According to this vision, people must be able to communicate also when no support from an infrastructured network is available, needed or desired. In order to achieve ubiquitous communication, end devices must integrate all the capabilities necessary for IP-based distributed and decentralized communication. Such capabilities are currently missing. For example, it is not possible to utilize native IP telephony signaling protocols in a totally decentralized way. This dissertation presents a solution for deploying the SIP protocol in a decentralized fashion without support of infrastructure servers. The proposed solution is mainly designed to fit the needs of decentralized mobile environments, and can be applied to small scale ad-hoc networks or also bigger networks with hundreds of nodes. A framework allowing discovery of SIP users in ad-hoc networks and the establishment of SIP sessions among them, in a fully distributed and secure way, is described and evaluated. Security support allows ad-hoc users to authenticate the sender of a message, and to verify the integrity of a received message. The distributed session management framework has been extended in order to achieve interoperability with the Internet, and the native Internet applications. With limited extensions to the SIP protocol, we have designed and experimentally validated a SIP gateway allowing SIP signaling between ad-hoc networks with private addressing space and native SIP applications in the Internet. The design is completed by an application level relay that permits instant messaging sessions to be established in heterogeneous environments. The resulting framework constitutes a flexible and effective approach for the pervasive deployment of real time applications.

Resolution prohibiting the performing of ceremonies at funerals of persons intermarried with Christians

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Query on the burial of persons married to Gentiles from the trustees answered

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Clinical and immunological studies on persons exposed toParthenium hysterophorus L

Studies on 300 persons subjected by occupational hazard to the allergenic weed, Parthenium hysterophorus L. for periods ranging from 3 to 12 months revealed that 4% of them developed contact dermatitis of the exposed parts of the body, while 56% of them got sensitized to the weed without apparently exhibiting any dermatitis. None of them suffered from allergic manifestations like rhinitis or bronchial asthma during the period of study which extended for 2 years.

Missing-In-Metastasis (MIM) regulates cell morphology by promoting plasma membrane and actin cytoskeleton dynamics

The cells of multicellular organisms have differentiated to carry out specific functions that are often accompanied by distinct cell morphology. The actin cytoskeleton is one of the key regulators of cell shape subsequently controlling multiple cellular events including cell migration, cell division, endo- and exocytosis. A large set of actin regulating proteins has evolved to achieve and tightly coordinate this wide range of functions. Some actin regulator proteins have so-called house keeping roles and are essential for all eukaryotic cells, but some have evolved to meet the requirements of more specialized cell-types found in higher organisms enabling complex functions of differentiated organs, such as liver, kidney and brain. Often processes mediated by the actin cytoskeleton, like formation of cellular protrusions during cell migration, are intimately linked to plasma membrane remodeling. Thus, a close cooperation between these two cellular compartments is necessary, yet not much is known about the underlying molecular mechanisms. This study focused on a vertebrate-specific protein called missing-in-metastasis (MIM), which was originally characterized as a metastasis suppressor of bladder cancer. We demonstrated that MIM regulates the dynamics of actin cytoskeleton via its WH2 domain, and is expressed in a cell-type specific manner. Interestingly, further examination showed that the IM-domain of MIM displays a novel membrane tubulation activity, which induces formation of filopodia in cells. Following studies demonstrated that this membrane deformation activity is crucial for cell protrusions driven by MIM. In mammals, there are five members of IM-domain protein family. Functions and expression patterns of these family members have remained poorly characterized. To understand the physiological functions of MIM, we generated MIM knockout mice. MIM-deficient mice display no apparent developmental defects, but instead suffer from progressive renal disease and increased susceptibility to tumors. This indicates that MIM plays a role in the maintenance of specific physiological functions associated with distinct cell morphologies. Taken together, these studies implicate MIM both in the regulation of the actin cytoskeleton and the plasma membrane. Our results thus suggest that members of MIM/IRSp53 protein family coordinate the actin cytoskeleton:plasma membrane interface to control cell and tissue morphogenesis in multicellular organisms.

Measuring the expressed emotion in Chinese family caregivers of persons with dementia: Validation of a Chinese version of the Family Attitude Scale

- Background Expressed emotion (EE) captures the affective quality of the relationship between family caregivers and their care recipients and is known to increase the risk of poor health outcomes for caregiving dyads. Little is known about expressed emotion in the context of caregiving for persons with dementia, especially in non-Western cultures. The Family Attitude Scale (FAS) is a psychometrically sound self-reporting measure for EE. Its use in the examination of caregiving for patients with dementia has not yet been explored. - Objectives This study was performed to examine the psychometric properties of the Chinese version of the FAS (FAS-C) in Chinese caregivers of relatives with dementia, and its validity in predicting severe depressive symptoms among the caregivers. - Methods The FAS was translated into Chinese using Brislin's model. Two expert panels evaluated the semantic equivalence and content validity of this Chinese version (FAS-C), respectively. A total of 123 Chinese primary caregivers of relatives with dementia were recruited from three elderly community care centers in Hong Kong. The FAS-C was administered with the Chinese versions of the 5-item Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5), the Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI) and the Revised Memory and Behavioral Problem Checklist (RMBPC). - Results The FAS-C had excellent semantic equivalence with the original version and a content validity index of 0.92. Exploratory factor analysis identified a three-factor structure for the FAS-C (hostile acts, criticism and distancing). Cronbach's alpha of the FAS-C was 0.92. Pearson's correlation indicated that there were significant associations between a higher score on the FAS-C and greater caregiver burden (r = 0.66, p < 0.001), poorer mental health of the caregivers (r = −0.65, p < 0.001) and a higher level of dementia-related symptoms (frequency of symptoms: r = 0.45, p < 0.001; symptom disturbance: r = 0.51, p < 0.001), which serves to suggest its construct validity. For detecting severe depressive symptoms of the family caregivers, the receiving operating characteristics (ROC) curve had an area under curve of 0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.69–0.87, p < 0.0001). The optimal cut-off score was >47 with a sensitivity of 0.720 (95% CI = 0.506–0.879) and specificity of 0.742 (95% CI = 0.643–0.826). - Conclusions The FAS-C is a reliable and valid measure to assess the affective quality of the relationship between Chinese caregivers and their relatives with dementia. It also has acceptable predictability in identifying family caregivers with severe depressive symptoms.

Reduced incidence of foot-related hospitalisation and amputation amongst persons with diabetes in Queensland, Australia

Objective To determine trends in the incidence of foot-related hospitalisation and amputation amongst persons with diabetes in Queensland (Australia) between 2005 and 2010 that coincided with changes in state-wide ambulatory diabetic foot-related complication management. Methods All data from cases admitted for the principal reason of diabetes foot-related hospitalisation or amputation in Queensland from 2005–2010 were obtained from the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patient Data Collection dataset. Incidence rates for foot-related hospitalisation (admissions, bed days used) and amputation (total, minor, major) cases amongst persons with diabetes were calculated per 1,000 person-years with diabetes (diabetes population) and per 100,000 person-years (general population). Age-sex standardised incidence and age-sex adjusted Poisson regression models were also calculated for the general population. Results There were 4,443 amputations, 24,917 hospital admissions and 260,085 bed days used for diabetes foot-related complications in Queensland. Incidence per 1,000 person-years with diabetes decreased from 2005 to 2010: 43.0% for hospital admissions (36.6 to 20.9), 40.1% bed days (391 to 234), 40.0% total amputations (6.47 to 3.88), 45.0% major amputations (2.18 to 1.20), 37.5% minor amputations (4.29 to 2.68) (p < 0.01 respectively). Age-sex standardised incidence per 100,000 person-years in the general population also decreased from 2005 to 2010: 23.3% hospital admissions (105.1 to 80.6), 19.5% bed days (1,122 to 903), 19.3% total amputations (18.57 to 14.99), 26.4% major amputations (6.26 to 4.61), 15.7% minor amputations (12.32 to 10.38) (p < 0.01 respectively). The age-sex adjusted incidence rates per calendar year decreased in the general population (rate ratio (95% CI)); hospital admissions 0.949 (0.942–0.956), bed days 0.964 (0.962–0.966), total amputations 0.962 (0.946–0.979), major amputations 0.945 (0.917–0.974), minor amputations 0.970 (0.950–0.991) (p < 0.05 respectively). Conclusions There were significant reductions in the incidence of foot-related hospitalisation and amputation amongst persons with diabetes in the population of Queensland over a recent six-year period.

Constructing the ideal victim in the United States of America's annual trafficking in persons reports

Human trafficking as a global phenomenon continues to elude accurate quantitative measure, and remains a controversial policy domain significantly influenced by anecdotal evidence. Drawing on the policy analysis framework of Bacchi (1999; 2007) the problem representation of trafficking through narratives can be considered a direct antecedent of contemporary anti-human trafficking policy. This article explores the construction of human trafficking within the Trafficking in Persons Reports, published annually by the United States of America’s Department of State. An examination of the victim and offender narratives contained within the reports published between 2001 and 2012 demonstrates that human trafficking is predominantly represented as a crime committed by ideal offenders against idealized victims, consistent with Christie’s (1986) landmark criteria of ideal victimization. This representation of an ideal prototype has the potential to inform policy that diverts focus from the causative role of global socioeconomic injustice towards criminal justice policies targeting individual offenders.

Pitfalls in the Treatment of Persons with Dementia

Pitfalls in the treatment of persons with dementia Persons with dementia require high-quality health care, rehabilitation and sufficient social services to support their autonomy and to postpone permanent institutionalization. This study sought to investigate possible pitfalls in the care of patients with dementia: hip fracture rehabilitation, use of inappropriate or antipsychotic medication, social and medicolegal services offered to dementia caregiving families. Three different Finnish samples were used from years 1999-2005, mean age 78 to 86 years. After hip fracture operation, the weight-bearing restriction especially in group of patients with dementia, was associated with a longer rehabilitation period (73.5 days vs. 45.5 days, p=0.03) and the inability to learn to walk after six weeks (p<0.001). Almost half (44%) of the pre-surgery home-dwellers with dementia in our sample required permanent hospitalization after hip fracture. Potentially inappropriate medication was used among 36.2% of nursing home and hospital patients. The most common PIDs in Finland were temazepam over 15 mg/day, oxybutynin, and dipyridamole. However, PID use failed to predict mortality or the use of health services. Nearly half (48.4%) of the nursing home and hospital patients with dementia used antipsychotic medication. The two-year mortality did not differ among the users of conventional or atypical antipsychotics or the non-users (45.3% vs.32.1% vs.49.6%, p=0.195). The mean number of hospital admissions was highest among non-users (p=0.029). A high number of medications (HR 1.12, p<0.001) and the use of physical restraints (HR 1.72, p=0.034) predicted higher mortality at two years, while the use of atypical antipsychotics (HR 0.49, p=0.047) showed a protective effect, if any. The services most often offered to caregiving families of persons with Alzheimer s disease (AD) included financial support from the community (36%), technical devices (33%), physiotherapy (32%), and respite care in nursing homes (31%). Those services most often needed included physiotherapy for the spouse with dementia (56%), financial support (50%), house cleaning (41%), and home respite (40%). Only a third of the caregivers were satisfied with these services, and 69% felt unable to influence the range of services offered. The use of legal guardians was quite rare (only 4.3%), while the use of financial powers of attorney was 37.8%. Almost half (47.9%) of the couples expressed an unmet need for discussion with their doctor about medico-legal issues, while only 9.9% stated that their doctor had informed them of such matters. Although we already have many practical methods to develop the medical and social care of persons with AD, these patients and their families require better planning and tailoring of such services. In this way, society could offer these elderly persons better quality of life while economizing on its financial resources. This study was supported by Social Insurance Institution of Finland and part of it made in cooperation with the The Central Union of the Welfare for the Aged, Finland.