A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was <32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature was ≥24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was >0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ≥32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions.

The role of spreadsheets in an investigation of Fibonacci numbers

We introduce a function Z(k) which measures the number of distinct ways in which a number can be expressed as the sum of Fibonacci numbers. Using a binary table and other devices, we explore the values that Z(k) can take and reveal a surprising relationship between the values of Z(k) and the Fibonacci numbers from which they were derived. The article shows the way in which standard spreadsheet functionalities makes it possible to reveal quite striking patterns in data.

Benefit evaluation for information providing system by WebGIS in view of users' travel costs

This paper estimates the benefit of a plan for information providing system on road administration by WebGIS. The system will reduce travel costs of visitors from their business establishments to a road administration section of a city office. The authors had individual interviews with the visitors at the section of the Ichikawa City Office. Annual total sum of travel costs was estimated at 37 million yen at most. This paper also proposes formulas which expect the frequency of visits or the total sum of travel costs from the spatial distribution of the business establishments without questionnaires.

A comparative investigation of C6-C15 hydrocarbons emitted from a passenger car powered by unleaded petrol and 10% ethanol fuel

Twenty-three non-methane hydrocarbons were captured from the exhaust of a car operating on unleaded petrol (ULP) and 10% ethanol fuels at steady speed on a chassis dynamometer. The compounds were identified and quantified by GC/MS/FID and their emission concentrations at 60 km/h, 80km/h and idle speed were evaluated. The most abundant compounds in the exhaust included n-hexane, n-heptane, benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, m- and p-xylenes, and methylcyclopentane. Because of the large number of compounds involved, no attempt was made to compare the emission concentrations of the compounds. Rather the sum of the emission concentrations for the suite of compounds identified was compared when the car was powered by ULP and 10% ethanol fuel. It was evident from the results that the emission concentrations and factors were generally higher with ULP than with 10% ethanol fuel. The total emission concentrations with the ULP fuel were 2.8, 4.2 and 2.6 times the corresponding values for the 10% ethanol fuel at 60km/h, 80km/h and idle speed, respectively. The implications of the results on the environment are discussed in the paper.

Conceptual and statistical framework for a water quality component of the integrated report card for the Great Barrier Reef catchments

This report presents the final deliverable from the project titled Conceptual and statistical framework for a water quality component of an integrated report card’ funded by the Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility (MTSRF; Project 3.7.7). The key management driver of this, and a number of other MTSRF projects concerned with indicator development, is the requirement for state and federal government authorities and other stakeholders to provide robust assessments of the present ‘state’ or ‘health’ of regional ecosystems in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments and adjacent marine waters. An integrated report card format, that encompasses both biophysical and socioeconomic factors, is an appropriate framework through which to deliver these assessments and meet a variety of reporting requirements. It is now well recognised that a ‘report card’ format for environmental reporting is very effective for community and stakeholder communication and engagement, and can be a key driver in galvanising community and political commitment and action. Although a report card it needs to be understandable by all levels of the community, it also needs to be underpinned by sound, quality-assured science. In this regard this project was to develop approaches to address the statistical issues that arise from amalgamation or integration of sets of discrete indicators into a final score or assessment of the state of the system. In brief, the two main issues are (1) selecting, measuring and interpreting specific indicators that vary both in space and time, and (2) integrating a range of indicators in such a way as to provide a succinct but robust overview of the state of the system. Although there is considerable research and knowledge of the use of indicators to inform the management of ecological, social and economic systems, methods on how to best to integrate multiple disparate indicators remain poorly developed. Therefore the objective of this project was to (i) focus on statistical approaches aimed at ensuring that estimates of individual indicators are as robust as possible, and (ii) present methods that can be used to report on the overall state of the system by integrating estimates of individual indicators. It was agreed at the outset, that this project was to focus on developing methods for a water quality report card. This was driven largely by the requirements of Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (RWQPP) and led to strong partner engagement with the Reef Water Quality Partnership.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Global burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods For each of the 20 mental and substance use disorders included in GBD 2010, we systematically reviewed epidemiological data and used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR, to model prevalence by age, sex, country, region, and year. We obtained disability weights from representative community surveys and an internet-based survey to calculate YLDs. We calculated premature mortality as YLLs from cause of death estimates for 1980–2010 for 20 age groups, both sexes, and 187 countries. We derived DALYs from the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We adjusted burden estimates for comorbidity and present them with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2010, mental and substance use disorders accounted for 183·9 million DALYs (95% UI 153·5 million–216·7 million), or 7·4% (6·2–8·6) of all DALYs worldwide. Such disorders accounted for 8·6 million YLLs (6·5 million–12·1 million; 0·5% [0·4–0·7] of all YLLs) and 175·3 million YLDs (144·5 million–207·8 million; 22·9% [18·6–27·2] of all YLDs). Mental and substance use disorders were the leading cause of YLDs worldwide. Depressive disorders accounted for 40·5% (31·7–49·2) of DALYs caused by mental and substance use disorders, with anxiety disorders accounting for 14·6% (11·2–18·4), illicit drug use disorders for 10·9% (8·9–13·2), alcohol use disorders for 9·6% (7·7–11·8), schizophrenia for 7·4% (5·0–9·8), bipolar disorder for 7·0% (4·4–10·3), pervasive developmental disorders for 4·2% (3·2–5·3), childhood behavioural disorders for 3·4% (2·2–4·7), and eating disorders for 1·2% (0·9–1·5). DALYs varied by age and sex, with the highest proportion of total DALYs occurring in people aged 10–29 years. The burden of mental and substance use disorders increased by 37·6% between 1990 and 2010, which for most disorders was driven by population growth and ageing. Interpretation Despite the apparently small contribution of YLLs—with deaths in people with mental disorders coded to the physical cause of death and suicide coded to the category of injuries under self-harm—our findings show the striking and growing challenge that these disorders pose for health systems in developed and developing regions. In view of the magnitude of their contribution, improvement in population health is only possible if countries make the prevention and treatment of mental and substance use disorders a public health priority.

Automated fit quantification of tibial nail designs during the insertion using computer three-dimensional modelling

Intramedullary nailing is the standard fixation method for displaced diaphyseal fractures of the tibia. An optimal nail design should both facilitate insertion and anatomically fit the bone geometry at its final position in order to reduce the risk of stress fractures and malalignments. Due to the nonexistence of suitable commercial software, we developed a software tool for the automated fit assessment of nail designs. Furthermore, we demonstrated that an optimised nail, which fits better at the final position, is also easier to insert. Three-dimensional models of two nail designs and 20 tibiae were used. The fitting was quantified in terms of surface area, maximum distance, sum of surface areas and sum of maximum distances by which the nail was protruding into the cortex. The software was programmed to insert the nail into the bone model and to quantify the fit at defined increment levels. On average, the misfit during the insertion in terms of the four fitting parameters was smaller for the Expert Tibial Nail Proximal bend (476.3 mm2, 1.5 mm, 2029.8 mm2, 6.5 mm) than the Expert Tibial Nail (736.7 mm2, 2.2 mm, 2491.4 mm2, 8.0 mm). The differences were statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05). The software could be used by nail implant manufacturers for the purpose of implant design validation.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Assessment of volatile organic compounds in urban schools

There is an increased concern about airborne particles not only because of their environmental effects, but also due to their potential adverse health effects on humans, especially children. Despite the growing evidence of airborne particles having an impact on children’s health, there have been limited studies investigating the long term health effects as well as the chemical composition of ambient air which further helps in determining their toxicity. Therefore, a systematic study on the chemical composition of air in school environment has been carried out in Brisbane, which is known as “Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions on Children’s Health” (UPTECH). This study is also a part of the larger project focusing on analysis of the chemical composition of ambient air, as well as source apportionment and the quantification of ambient concentrations of organic pollutants in the vicinity of schools. However, this particular paper presents some of the results on concentration of different Volatile Organic Compounds in both indoor and outdoor location from different schools. The database consisted of 750 samples (500 outdoor and 250 indoor) collected for VOCs at 25 different schools. The sampling and analysis were conducted following the standard methods. A total of 90 individual VOCs were identified from the schools studied. Compounds such as toluene, acetic acid, nonanal, benzaldehyde, 2- ethyl 1- hexanol, limonene were the most common in indoors whereas isopentane, toluene, hexane, heptane were dominant in outdoors. The indoor/ outdoor ratio of average sum of VOCs were found to be more than one in most of the schools indicating that there might be additional indoor sources along with the outdoor air in those schools. However, further expansion of the study in relation to source apportionment, correlating with traffic and meteorological data is in progress.

‘Not a criminal in the classic sense': @DrRimmer on the sentencing of Jono Moylan #leardblockade #standwithjono

On July 25, 2014, Justice David Davies sentenced Jonathan Moylan at the Supreme Court of New South Wales for a breach of section 1041E (1) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). The ruling is a careful and deliberate decision, showing equipoise. Justice Davies has a reputation for being a thoughtful and philosophical adjudicator. The judge convicted and sentenced Moylan to imprisonment for 1 year and 8 months. The judge ordered that Moylan be “immediately released upon giving security by way of recognisance in the sum of $1000 to be of good behaviour for a period of 2 years commencing today”.

Modeling of the hemodynamic responses in block design fMRI studies

The hemodynamic response function (HRF) describes the local response of brain vasculature to functional activation. Accurate HRF modeling enables the investigation of cerebral blood flow regulation and improves our ability to interpret fMRI results. Block designs have been used extensively as fMRI paradigms because detection power is maximized; however, block designs are not optimal for HRF parameter estimation. Here we assessed the utility of block design fMRI data for HRF modeling. The trueness (relative deviation), precision (relative uncertainty), and identifiability (goodness-of-fit) of different HRF models were examined and test-retest reproducibility of HRF parameter estimates was assessed using computer simulations and fMRI data from 82 healthy young adult twins acquired on two occasions 3 to 4 months apart. The effects of systematically varying attributes of the block design paradigm were also examined. In our comparison of five HRF models, the model comprising the sum of two gamma functions with six free parameters had greatest parameter accuracy and identifiability. Hemodynamic response function height and time to peak were highly reproducible between studies and width was moderately reproducible but the reproducibility of onset time was low. This study established the feasibility and test-retest reliability of estimating HRF parameters using data from block design fMRI studies.

Development of a new design expression for the in-plane shear capacity of the partially grouted concrete masonry walls

Partially grouted masonry walls subjected to in-plane shear exhibit a complex behaviour because of the influence of the aspect ratio, the pre-compression, the grouting pattern, the ratios of the horizontal and the vertical reinforcements, the boundary conditions and the characteristics of the constituent materials. The existing in-plane shear expressions for the partially grouted masonry are formulated as sum of strength of three parameters, namely, the masonry, the reinforcement and the axial force. The parameter ‘masonry’ includes the wall aspect ratio and the masonry compressive strength; the aspect ratio of the unreinforced panel inscribed into the grouted cores and bond beams are not considered, although failure is often dominated by these unreinforced masonry panels. This paper describes the dominance of these panels, particularly those that are squat, to the shear capacity of whole of shear walls. Further, the current design formulae are shown highly un-conservative by many researchers; this paper provides a potential reason for this un-conservativeness. It is shown that by including an additional term of the unreinforced panel aspect ratio a rational design formula could be established. This new expression is validated with independent test results reported in the literature – both Australian and overseas; the predictions are shown to be conservative.

Export of radioactive cesium from agricultural fields under simulated rainfall in Fukushima

In this study, we investigated the impact of rainfall on runoff, soil erosion and consequently on the discharge of radioactive cesium in agricultural fields in Fukushima prefecture using a rainfall simulator. Simulated heavy rainfalls (50 mm h-1) generated significant runoff and soil erosion. The average concentration of radioactive cesium (the sum of 134Cs and 137Cs) in the runoff sediments was [similar]3500 Bq kg-1 dry soil, more than double the concentrations measured in the field soils which should be considered in studies using the 137Cs loss to estimate long-term soil erosion. However, the estimated mass of cesium discharged through one runoff event was less than 2% of the cesium inventory in the field. This suggested that cesium discharge via soil erosion is not a significant factor in reducing the radioactivity of contaminated soils in Fukushima prefecture. However, the eroded sediment carrying radioactive cesium will deposit into the river systems and potentially pose a radioactivity risk for aquatic living organisms.

Spatial distribution of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Australia's atmosphere

A nation-wide passive air sampling campaign recorded concentrations of persistent organic pollutants in Australia's atmosphere in 2012. XAD-based passive air samplers were deployed for one year at 15 sampling sites located in remote/background, agricultural and semi-urban and urban areas across the continent. Concentrations of 47 polychlorinated biphenyls ranged from 0.73 to 72 pg m-3 (median of 8.9 pg m-3) and were consistently higher at urban sites. The toxic equivalent concentration for the sum of 12 dioxin-like PCBs was low, ranging from below detection limits to 0.24 fg m-3 (median of 0.0086 fg m-3). Overall, the levels of polychlorinated biphenyls in Australia were among the lowest reported globally to date. Among the organochlorine pesticides, hexachlorobenzene had the highest (median of 41 pg m-3) and most uniform concentration (with a ratio between highest and lowest value [similar]5). Bushfires may be responsible for atmospheric hexachlorobenzene levels in Australia that exceeded Southern Hemispheric baseline levels by a factor of [similar]4. Organochlorine pesticide concentrations generally increased from remote/background and agricultural sites to urban sites, except for high concentrations of [small alpha]-endosulfan and DDTs at specific agricultural sites. Concentrations of heptachlor (0.47-210 pg m-3), dieldrin (ND-160 pg m-3) and trans- and cis-chlordanes (0.83-180 pg m-3, sum of) in Australian air were among the highest reported globally to date, whereas those of DDT and its metabolites (ND-160 pg m-3, sum of), [small alpha]-, [small beta]-, [gamma]- and [small delta]-hexachlorocyclohexane (ND-6.7 pg m-3, sum of) and [small alpha]-endosulfan (ND-27 pg m-3) were among the lowest.