Monotonic continuous-time random walks with drift and stochastic reset events

In this paper we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which suddenly bring the system to the starting value and analyze the relevant statistical magnitudes. We focus our attention on monotonic continuous-time random walks with a constant drift: The process increases between the reset events, either by the effect of the random jumps, or by the action of the deterministic drift. As a result of all these combined factors interesting properties emerge, like the existence (for any drift strength) of a stationary transition probability density function, or the faculty of the model to reproduce power-law-like behavior. General formulas for two extreme statistics, the survival probability, and the mean exit time, are also derived. To corroborate in an independent way the results of the paper, Monte Carlo methods were used. These numerical estimations are in full agreement with the analytical predictions.

Fronts with continuous waiting-time distributions: Theory and application to virus infections

We generalize to arbitrary waiting-time distributions some results which were previously derived for discrete distributions. We show that for any two waiting-time distributions with the same mean delay time, that with higher dispersion will lead to a faster front. Experimental data on the speed of virus infections in a plaque are correctly explained by the theoretical predictions using a Gaussian delay-time distribution, which is more realistic for this system than the Dirac delta distribution considered previously [J. Fort and V. Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett.89, 178101 (2002)]

Ambient solar wind's effect on ICME transit times

Most empirical and numerical models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) propagation use the initial CME velocity as their primary, if not only, observational input. These models generally predict a wide spread of 1 AU transit times for ICMEs with the same initial velocity. We use a 3D coupled MHD model of the corona and heliosphere to determine the ambient solar wind's effect on the propagation of ICMEs from 30 solar radii to 1 AU. We quantitatively characterize this deceleration by the velocity of the upstream ambient solar wind. The effects of varying solar wind parameters on the ICME transit time are quantified and can explain the observed spread in transit times for ICMEs of the same initial velocity. We develop an adjustment formula that can be used in conjunction with other models to reduce the spread in predicted transit times of Earth-directed ICMEs.

Predictions of the arrival time of coronal mass ejections at 1AU: an analysis of the causes of errors

Three existing models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) transit between the Sun and the Earth are compared to coronagraph and in situ observations: all three models are found to perform with a similar level of accuracy (i.e. an average error between observed and predicted 1AU transit times of approximately 11 h). To improve long-term space weather prediction, factors influencing CME transit are investigated. Both the removal of the plane of sky projection (as suffered by coronagraph derived speeds of Earth directed CMEs) and the use of observed values of solar wind speed, fail to significantly improve transit time prediction. However, a correlation is found to exist between the late/early arrival of an ICME and the width of the preceding sheath region, suggesting that the error is a geometrical effect that can only be removed by a more accurate determination of a CME trajectory and expansion. The correlation between magnetic field intensity and speed of ejecta at 1AU is also investigated. It is found to be weak in the body of the ICME, but strong in the sheath, if the upstream solar wind conditions are taken into account.

A comparison of two time-domain analysis procedures in the determination of VO2 kinetics by pseudorandom binary sequence exercise testing

The purpose of this study was to apply and compare two time-domain analysis procedures in the determination of oxygen uptake (VO2) kinetics in response to a pseudorandom binary sequence (PRBS) exercise test. PRBS exercise tests have typically been analysed in the frequency domain. However, the complex interpretation of frequency responses may have limited the application of this procedure in both sporting and clinical contexts, where a single time measurement would facilitate subject comparison. The relative potential of both a mean response time (MRT) and a peak cross-correlation time (PCCT) was investigated. This study was divided into two parts: a test-retest reliability study (part A), in which 10 healthy male subjects completed two identical PRBS exercise tests, and a comparison of the VO2 kinetics of 12 elite endurance runners (ER) and 12 elite sprinters (SR; part B). In part A, 95% limits of agreement were calculated for comparison between MRT and PCCT. The results of part A showed no significant difference between test and retest as assessed by MRT [mean (SD) 42.2 (4.2) s and 43.8 (6.9) s] or by PCCT [21.8 (3.7) s and 22.7 (4.5) s]. Measurement error (%) was lower for MRT in comparison with PCCT (16% and 25%, respectively). In part B of the study, the VO2 kinetics of ER were significantly faster than those of SR, as assessed by MRT [33.4 (3.4) s and 39.9 (7.1) s, respectively; P<0.01] and PCCT [20.9 (3.8) s and 24.8 (4.5) s; P < 0.05]. It is possible that either analysis procedure could provide a single test measurement Of VO2 kinetics; however, the greater reliability of the MRT data suggests that this method has more potential for development in the assessment Of VO2 kinetics by PRBS exercise testing.

Multimodel assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: tropics and global trends

The performance of 18 coupled Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) is evaluated using qualitative and quantitative diagnostics. Trends in tropopause quantities in the tropics and the extratropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) are analyzed. A quantitative grading methodology for evaluating CCMs is extended to include variability and used to develop four different grades for tropical tropopause temperature and pressure, water vapor and ozone. Four of the 18 models and the multi-model mean meet quantitative and qualitative standards for reproducing key processes in the TTL. Several diagnostics are performed on a subset of the models analyzing the Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL), Lagrangian cold point and TTL transit time. Historical decreases in tropical tropopause pressure and decreases in water vapor are simulated, lending confidence to future projections. The models simulate continued decreases in tropopause pressure in the 21st century, along with ∼1K increases per century in cold point tropopause temperature and 0.5–1 ppmv per century increases in water vapor above the tropical tropopause. TTL water vapor increases below the cold point. In two models, these trends are associated with 35% increases in TTL cloud fraction. These changes indicate significant perturbations to TTL processes, specifically to deep convective heating and humidity transport. Ozone in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere has significant and hemispheric asymmetric trends. O3 is projected to increase by nearly 30% due to ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and due to enhancements in the stratospheric circulation. These UTLS ozone trends may have significant effects in the TTL and the troposphere.

Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real-time heliospheric imager observations

Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make “Fearless Forecasts” of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5–6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km s−1, with an average arrival speed of 425km s−1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km s−1.

Transit times – the link between hydrology and water quality at the catchment scale

In spite of trying to understand processes in the same spatial domain, the catchment hydrology and water quality scientific communities are relatively disconnected and so are their respective models. This is emphasized by an inadequate representation of transport processes, in both catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models. While many hydrological models at the catchment scale only account for pressure propagation and not for mass transfer, catchment scale water quality models are typically limited by overly simplistic representations of flow processes. With the objective of raising awareness for this issue and outlining potential ways forward we provide a non-technical overview of (1) the importance of hydrology-controlled transport through catchment systems as the link between hydrology and water quality; (2) the limitations of current generation catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models; (3) the concept of transit times as tools to quantify transport and (4) the benefits of transit time based formulations of solute transport for catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models. There is emerging evidence that an explicit formulation of transport processes, based on the concept of transit times has the potential to improve the understanding of the integrated system dynamics of catchments and to provide a stronger link between catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models.

Human-animal interaction, stress, and embryo production in Bos indicus embryo donors under tropical conditions

This study investigated the effect of human-animal interaction (HAI) and the stress response on the quality of embryo production in superovulated Nelore (Bos indicus) cattle, under tropical conditions. Thirty-two females underwent a superovulation protocol for 5 days. Cortisol concentrations were determined in blood plasma collected on days 0, 4, and 5. Artificial insemination was performed on days 4 and 5, and nonsurgical embryo flushing on day 11. Embryo production and viability were determined. Human stimulation, animal behaviors, accidents, and handling time were recorded to assess HAI. Cattle age was negatively correlated with accidents, frequency of aversive behaviors, and negative stimuli by stockperson during transit through corral compartments to receive superovulation treatments. The factor analysis revealed two distinct groups. The first group was called stressed and had higher cortisol concentration than the nonstressed group, 16.0 +/- 2.1 and 12.5 +/- 1.0 ng/mL, respectively. Comparisons between these groups showed that the frequency of voice emissions by the stockperson and the number of accidents were higher in the stressed group, and also, the mean handling time was longer in the stressed group than for the nonstressed. As a result, viability rate of the embryos was 19% lower in the stressed group (P < 0.05). This indicates that intensive negative HAI is likely related to stress, which affects embryo production in a superovulation program.

Efeito imediato e a curto prazo do cigarro sobre o transporte mucociliar nasal de fumadores

Background and objectives: The efficiency of mucociliary transport may vary in different conditions, such as in exposure to harmful particles of the cigarette smoke. The present study evaluated the acute and short term effects of smoking on nasal mucociliary clearance in current smokers by the quantification of the Saccharin Transit Time (STT), and to investigate its correlation with the history of tobacco consumption.Methods: Nineteen current smokers (11 men, 51 +/- 16 years; BMI 23 +/- 9 kg/m(2), 27 +/- 11 cigarettes per day, 44 +/- 25 pack-years), entering a smoking cessation intervention program, responded to a questionnaire concerning smoking history and were submitted to lung function assessment (spirometry) and the STT test. STT was assessed immediately after smoking and 8 hours after smoking. The STT test was also performed in nineteen matched healthy non-smokers' who served as control group.Results: When compared to STT in non-smokers' (10 +/- 4 min; mean +/- standard deviation), smokers presented similar STT immediately after smoking (11 +/- 6 min; p = 0.87) and slower SIT 8 hours after smoking (16 +/- 6 min; p = 0.005 versus non-smokers' and p = 0.003 versus immediately after smoking). STT 8 hours after smoking correlated positively with age (r = 0.59; p = 0.007), cigarettes per day (r = 0.53; p = 0.02) and pack-years index (r = 0.74; p = 0.0003).Conclusions: In smokers, although the mucociliary clearance immediately after smoking is similar to non-smokers', eight hours after smoking it is reduced, and this reduction is closely related to the smoking habits. (C) 2010 Sociedade Portuguesa de Pneumologia. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L. All rights reserved.

Reversibility of impaired nasal mucociliary clearance in smokers following a smoking cessation programme

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

AC Biosusceptometry as a Tool for Monitoring the Gastrointestinal Transit of Multiparticulate Drug Delivery System

Drug delivery systems based on natural polysaccharides, such as chitosan (CS) and pectin (PC), rather than on synthetic polymers, have been widely studied. Some reasons for that are low toxicity and costs and high biodegradability of the formers. A multiparticulate system based on CS and PC was developed in our laboratories, including the addition of an enteric polymer, cellulose acetate phtalate (CAP). Such improvement promoted stronger gastric and enteric resistances, as assessed in vitro, making the systems more selective to enzymatic degradation in the colon. Although in vitro dissolution tests can simulate some properties concerning the gastrointestinal transit (GT), collaborating to characterize the systems behavior in the biological fluids, frequently they do not result in satisfactory in vitro/in vivo correlations. The objective of this work was to follow in vivo the GT of the particles developed by means of AC biosusceptometry (ACB), a non-invasive and of low cost methodology. The particles containing ferrite in powder form were prepared by complex coacervation using an ideal 3:1:1 mass ratio for PC:CS:CAP. The magnetic particles were administered to healthy volunteers by oral route. The GT was monitored by using multi-sensor ACB system and the signal acquisition was performed every IS min until the colonic region was reached. By means of ACB technique, it was possible to acquiring images generated by the magnetic particles within the whole gastrointestinal tract including the colonic region. Variable particles transit times were observed among the volunteers, but without interference on the mapping of the particles until the colonic region. The particles were able to produce magnetic field strong enough to generate signals adequate for mapping the particles. The results suggest that integral particles reached the colon, after they resisted against gastric and enteric media. Studies associating transit time and in vivo drug release are in development in order to confirm the efficiency of the systems.

The influence of sour taste and cold temperature in pharyngeal transit duration in patients with stroke

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effects of a muscarinic type-2 antagonist on cardiorespiratory function and intestinal transit in horses anesthetized with halothane and xylazine

Objective-To evaluate the cardiorespiratory and intestinal effects of the muscarinic type-2 (M-2) antagonist, methoctramine, in anesthetized horses.Animals-6 horses.Procedure-Horses were allocated to 2 treatments in a randomized complete block design. Anesthesia was maintained with halothane (1% end-tidal concentration) combined with a constant-rate infusion of xylazine hydrochloride (1 mg/kg/h, IV) and mechanical ventilation. Hemodynamic variables were monitored after induction of anesthesia and for 120 minutes after administration of methoctramine or saline (0.9% NaCl) solution (control treatment). Methoctramine was given at 10-minute intervals (10 mug/kg, IV) until heart rate (HR) increased at least 30% above baseline values or until a maximum cumulative dose of 30 mug/kg had been administered. Recovery characteristics, intestinal auscultation scores, and intestinal transit determined by use of chromium oxide were assessed during the postanesthetic period.Results-Methoctramine was given at a total cumulative dose of 30 mug/kg to 4 horses, whereas 2 horses received 10 mug/kg. Administration of methoctramine resulted in increases in HR, cardiac output, arterial blood pressure, and tissue oxygen delivery. Intestinal auscultation scores and intestinal transit time (interval to first and last detection of chromium oxide in the feces) did not differ between treatment groups.Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Methoctramine improved hemodynamic function in horses anesthetized by use of halothane and xylazine without causing a clinically detectable delay in the return to normal intestinal motility during the postanesthetic period. Because of their selective positive chronotropic effects, M-2 antagonists may represent a safe alternative for treatment of horses with intraoperative bracycardia.

Avaliação do tempo de trânsito esofágico pelo ultrassom: influência do gênero e índice de massa corpórea

OBJETIVO: Utilizar a ultrassonografia do esôfago intra-abdominal para avaliar o tempo de trânsito esofágico para água e iogurte, em posição ortostática, e avaliar a influência do gênero e índice de massa corpórea. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: Foram estudados 89 indivíduos adultos jovens, sem clínica de doenças do trato gastrintestinal superior, sendo 40 do gênero feminino (média de 20,13 ± 1,62 anos) e 49 do gênero masculino (média de 20,43 ± 2,17 anos). O tempo de trânsito esofágico foi cronometrado, com o paciente em posição ortostática, durante a deglutição de água e iogurte. RESULTADOS: O tempo de trânsito esofágico para as mulheres e para os homens foi, respectivamente: para água, de 5,84 ± 1,60 segundos versus 6,66 ± 1,68 segundos, e para iogurte, de 9,12 ± 1,96 segundos versus 9,28 ± 1,70 segundos. Não se constatou diferença entre os gêneros masculino e feminino, apesar de o fator índice de massa corpórea ser menor nas mulheres. CONCLUSÃO: Os dados obtidos do tempo de trânsito esofágico para alimento líquido (água) e pastoso (iogurte), em posição ortostática, em adultos jovens não mostraram diferença entre os gêneros, mesmos nas mulheres com índice de massa corpórea menor em relação aos homens.