Gyration

European Renaissance and Romantic landscape appeared in vistas. The conditions of the industrial revolution and, according to Patrick Maynard and Jonathon Crary, the film camera especially, led to a Modernist re-vision vividly recorded in Xavier Herbert’s contrary Modernist vision, prompted by seeing the Australian bush, its ‘... stunted trees, the mulga and the wilga and the gimlet gum, doing a kind of dance, spinning past, seeming to swing away from the train to the horizon and race ahead, to come back...the same set of trees in endless gyration’.

Towards a business analytics capability maturity model

Business analytics (BA) systems are an important strategic investment for many organisations and can potentially contribute significantly to firm performance. Establishing strong BA capabilities is currently one of the major concerns of chief information officers. This research project aims to develop a BA capability maturity model (BACMM). The BACMM will help organisations to scope and evaluate their BA initiatives. This research-in-progress paper describes the current BACMM, relates it to existing capability maturity models and explains its theoretical base. It also discusses the design science research approach being used to develop the BACMM and provides details of further work within the research project. Finally, the paper concludes with a discussion of how the BACMM might be used in practice.

The Art of Wool

An edited volume that examines the place of wool in the artistic imagination of Australia and considers visual relationships between art and fashion.Part of a wider curatorial project that brings together garments from the International Woolmark Prize archive with works from the Howard Hinton and Chandler Coventry Collections at New England Regional Art Museum. Editor's Introduction:Tanya Zoe Robinson'Introduction: stories of wool'Essay authors:Margaret Maynard, Honorary Research Consultant, Queensland University'Wool fashions: comfort, tactility, innovation'Adam Geczy, Senior Lecturer, Sydney College of the Arts'The art-fashion crossover'Christine France OAM'Wool in the artistic imagination of Australia'

A economia como ciência. Dos clássicos a Keynes

Este ensaio se propõe confrontar a abordagem neoclássica da economia como ciência positiva, com a modelo keynesiano e a visão da economia dinâmica de Kalecki, onde a economia é tratada desde a perspectiva de uma ciência moral e normativa. Para tanto analisaremos as bases teóricas de cada modelo, seus pressupostos, leis fundamentais e principais conclusões. Dado o propósito didático do texto nos preocupamos em tentar explicar os antecedentes, axiomas, leis e relações funcionais de cada modelo, dando especial ênfase às que surgem da crítica de postulados anteriores, pois admitimos que cada modelo incorpora valores, pressupostos e metodologia própria, cuja crítica é essencial para o avanço da ciência. A economia neoclássica supõe agentes racionais, informação completa e ações e resultados imediatos. Seu método de análise é a otimização com restrições. O principio ordenador, necessário e suficiente da atividade econômica, consiste no comportamento racional dos agentes. Este modelo tem sua concepção política e ética das relações econômicas, consistente com seus pressupostos, o que fica patente, por exemplo, a propósito de sua teoria da distribuição da renda. Com a introdução de conceitos como: o tempo histórico; o caracter monetário da produção; a preferência pela liquidez; o comportamento subjetivo dos agentes; o predomínio da procura sobre a oferta; as expectativas e a incerteza em relação ao futuro, etc., a macroeconomia de Keynes consegue romper o paradigma anterior, do ajuste automático dos mercados de acordo com um feedeback contínuo e estável, capaz de garantir o equilíbrio de pleno emprego. Embora a análise keynesiana tivesse permitido a abordagem precisa de questões tão importantes como: a natureza e as causas do desemprego; o papel da moeda e do crédito; a determinação dos juros; os condicionantes do investimento, etc., faltava ainda uma teoria dos preços, da distribuição e do ciclo econômico, no que o trabalho de M. Kalecki, certamente parece ter avançado. Este autor parte de um contexto cultural e ideológico que lhe permite abordar sem entraves a natureza do capitalismo. Seu enfoque micro e macroeconômico é integrado e está apoiado no pressuposto da concorrência imperfeita. No universo keynesiano os mercados podem estar em equilíbrio, mas não no de pleno emprego, já segundo Kalecki o ciclo econômico é inevitável. Em ambos os casos os mercados não são perfeitos e não tendem naturalmente para o equilíbrio, o que justifica a ação reguladora do Estado, de acordo sua opção política e um código de valores preestabelecido. É de se imaginar que cada modelo de análise esteja condicionado pelo conjunto de valores dominantes do momento, o que não invalida o caracter de ciência social da economia. Por exemplo, desde a perspectiva individualista da troca mercantil, a economia se apresenta com a metodologia de ciência pura, porém, levando em conta as relações de classe social, é uma ciência moral.

Em busca do tempo perdido : a recuperação pos-keynesiana da economia do emprego de Keynes

Situada na área de história dda teoria econômica, a presente dissertação ocupa-se de uma avaliação integrada e crítica das leituras dos fundamentos da economia do emprego formulada por John Maynard Keynes empreendidas por quatro vertentes da teoria econômica comtemporânea

A lealdade dos servidores públicos brasileiros: uma análise na área de segurança pública do Distrito Federal

Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo contribuir para compreensão dos vínculos de lealdade que orientam a atuação dos servidores públicos brasileiros. Após a revisão bibliográfica, foram realizadas entrevistas a fim de coletar e analisar as percepções dos profissionais. O estudo focou em funcionários da segurança pública do DF, como peritos criminais, delegados e policiais, abrangendo aqueles que atuam na linha de frente, assim como chefes e dirigentes. Adaptou-se o referencial teórico de Maynard-Moody e Musheno (2003), assim como o de De Graaf (2010), acerca da lealdade dos servidores públicos e buscou-se reunir narrativas que ilustrassem situações cotidianas em que as decisões são tomadas e a discricionariedade é exercida. Nesse sentido, procurou-se investigar as instâncias de reponsabilidade mais representativas, assim como possíveis tensões e conflitos, sobretudo em um panorama em que governança e accountability estão em evidência. Os regulamentos são sempre rigorosamente cumpridos? Ou haveria um juízo de ponderação moral abrangendo outras facetas e interesses? Respondidas estas questões, procedeu-se o cotejo entre os resultados obtidos e aqueles oriundos das pesquisas referenciais. Por fim, também se procurou entabular tópicos que possam ser desenvolvidos como desdobramentos desta pesquisa.

Probabilidades imprecisas: intervalar, fuzzy e fuzzy intuicionista

The idea of considering imprecision in probabilities is old, beginning with the Booles George work, who in 1854 wanted to reconcile the classical logic, which allows the modeling of complete ignorance, with probabilities. In 1921, John Maynard Keynes in his book made explicit use of intervals to represent the imprecision in probabilities. But only from the work ofWalley in 1991 that were established principles that should be respected by a probability theory that deals with inaccuracies. With the emergence of the theory of fuzzy sets by Lotfi Zadeh in 1965, there is another way of dealing with uncertainty and imprecision of concepts. Quickly, they began to propose several ways to consider the ideas of Zadeh in probabilities, to deal with inaccuracies, either in the events associated with the probabilities or in the values of probabilities. In particular, James Buckley, from 2003 begins to develop a probability theory in which the fuzzy values of the probabilities are fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy probability, follows analogous principles to Walley imprecise probabilities. On the other hand, the uses of real numbers between 0 and 1 as truth degrees, as originally proposed by Zadeh, has the drawback to use very precise values for dealing with uncertainties (as one can distinguish a fairly element satisfies a property with a 0.423 level of something that meets with grade 0.424?). This motivated the development of several extensions of fuzzy set theory which includes some kind of inaccuracy. This work consider the Krassimir Atanassov extension proposed in 1983, which add an extra degree of uncertainty to model the moment of hesitation to assign the membership degree, and therefore a value indicate the degree to which the object belongs to the set while the other, the degree to which it not belongs to the set. In the Zadeh fuzzy set theory, this non membership degree is, by default, the complement of the membership degree. Thus, in this approach the non-membership degree is somehow independent of the membership degree, and this difference between the non-membership degree and the complement of the membership degree reveals the hesitation at the moment to assign a membership degree. This new extension today is called of Atanassov s intuitionistic fuzzy sets theory. It is worth noting that the term intuitionistic here has no relation to the term intuitionistic as known in the context of intuitionistic logic. In this work, will be developed two proposals for interval probability: the restricted interval probability and the unrestricted interval probability, are also introduced two notions of fuzzy probability: the constrained fuzzy probability and the unconstrained fuzzy probability and will eventually be introduced two notions of intuitionistic fuzzy probability: the restricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability and the unrestricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability

Clássicos versus Keynes: a abordagem formal de David Champernowne

Este texto tem por objetivo ressaltar um aspecto que não tem sido tratado com a devida profundidade na literatura que estuda a formalização da Teoria Geral do Emprego, dos Juros e da Moeda de John Maynard Keynes (1936). Mais precisamente, o texto destaca a estratégia de formalização adotada por David G. Champernowne em seu artigo intitulado Unemployment, Basic and Monetary: the classical analysis and the keynesian, publicado em 1935-36 na Review of Economic Studies. Chamamos a atenção para o fato dele distinguir a teoria clássica da teoria de Keynes não apenas pelos pressupostos adotados por cada teoria, mas principalmente pela construção de subsistemas a partir de um sistema geral, com características recursivas (relações de causalidade) distintas. As explicações em prosa, a descrição algébrica das funções comportamentais e condições de equilíbrio e a ilustração por meio de diagramas, além da escolha de conjuntos específicos de variáveis para representar cada uma das teorias e suas diferentes versões são aspectos deste artigo de Champernowne que merecem uma análise mais minuciosa.

Política fiscal e reestruturação da dívida pública no Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

OPENING REMARKS - THIRD VERTEBRATE PEST CONFERENCE

To open this Third Vertebrate Pest Conference is a real privilege. It is a pleasure to welcome all of you in attendance, and I know there are others who would like to be meeting with us, but, for one reason or another cannot be. However, we can serve them by taking back the results of discussion and by making available the printed transactions of what is said here. It has been the interest and demand for the proceedings of the two previous conferen- ces which, along with personal contacts many of you have with the sponsoring committee, have gauged the need for continuing these meetings. The National Pest Control Association officers who printed the 1962 proceedings still are supplying copies of that conference. Two reprintings of the 1964 conference have been necessary and repeat orders from several universities indicate that those proceedings have become textbooks for special classes. When Dr. Howard mentioned in opening the first Conference in 1962 that publication of those papers would make a valuable handbook of animal control, he was prophetic, indeed. We are pleased that this has happened, but not surprised, since to many of us in this specialized field, the conferences have provided a unique opportunity to meet colleagues with similar interests, to exchange information on control techniques and to be informed by research workers of problem solving investigations as well as to hear of promising basic research. The development of research is a two-way street and we think these conferences also identify areas of inadequate knowledge, thereby stimulating needed research. We have represented here a number of types of specialists—animal ecologists, public health and transmissible disease experts, control methods specialists, public agency administration and enforcement staffs, agricultural extension people, manufacturing and sale industry representatives, commercial pest control operators, and others—and in addition to improving communications among these professional groups an equally important purpose of these conferences is to improve understanding between them and the general public. Within the term general public are many individuals and also organizations dedicated to appreciation and protection of certain animal forms or animal life in general. Proper concepts of vertebrate pest control do not conflict with such views. It is worth repeating for the record the definition of "vertebrate pest" which has been stated at our previous conferences. "A vertebrate pest is any native or introduced, wild or feral, non-human spe- cies of vertebrate animal that is currently troublesome locally or over a wide area to one or more persons either by being a general nuisance, a health hazard or by destroying food or natural resources. In other words, vertebrate pest status is not an inherent quality or fixed classification but is a circumstantial relationship to man's interests." I believe progress has been made in reducing the misunderstanding and emotion with which vertebrate pest control was formerly treated whenever a necessity for control was stated. If this is true, I likewise believe it is deserved, because control methods and programs have progressed. Control no longer refers only to population reductions by lethal means. We have learned something of alternate control approaches and the necessity for studying the total environment; where reduction of pest animal numbers is the required solution to a problem situation we have a wider choice of more selective, safe and efficient materials. Although increased attention has been given to control methods, research when we take a close look at the severity of animal damage to so many facets of our economy, particularly to agricultural production and public health, we realize it still is pitifully small and slow. The tremendous acceleration of the world's food and health requirements seems to demand expediting vertebrate pest control to effectively neutralize the enormous impact of animal damage to vital resources. The efforts we are making here at problem delineation, idea communication and exchange of methodology could well serve as both nucleus and rough model for a broader application elsewhere. I know we all hope this Third Conference will advance these general objectives, and I think there is no doubt of its value in increasing our own scope of information.

Aggressive vs. conservative phototherapy for infants with extremely low birth weight.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether aggressive phototherapy to prevent neurotoxic effects of bilirubin benefits or harms infants with extremely low birth weight (1000 g or less). METHODS: We randomly assigned 1974 infants with extremely low birth weight at 12 to 36 hours of age to undergo either aggressive or conservative phototherapy. The primary outcome was a composite of death or neurodevelopmental impairment determined for 91% of the infants by investigators who were unaware of the treatment assignments. RESULTS: Aggressive phototherapy, as compared with conservative phototherapy, significantly reduced the mean peak serum bilirubin level (7.0 vs. 9.8 mg per deciliter [120 vs. 168 micromol per liter], P<0.01) but not the rate of the primary outcome (52% vs. 55%; relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87 to 1.02; P=0.15). Aggressive phototherapy did reduce rates of neurodevelopmental impairment (26%, vs. 30% for conservative phototherapy; relative risk, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.99). Rates of death in the aggressive-phototherapy and conservative-phototherapy groups were 24% and 23%, respectively (relative risk, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.22). In preplanned subgroup analyses, the rates of death were 13% with aggressive phototherapy and 14% with conservative phototherapy for infants with a birth weight of 751 to 1000 g and 39% and 34%, respectively (relative risk, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.34), for infants with a birth weight of 501 to 750 g. CONCLUSIONS: Aggressive phototherapy did not significantly reduce the rate of death or neurodevelopmental impairment. The rate of neurodevelopmental impairment alone was significantly reduced with aggressive phototherapy. This reduction may be offset by an increase in mortality among infants weighing 501 to 750 g at birth. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00114543.)

Die wirtschaftlichen Folgen des Friedensvertrages

von John Maynard Keynes