Human factors in estimating

It is commonly held that the ability of the estimator to apply professional skill and judgement is an important factor in the production of an accurate cost estimate. This chapter identifies these abilities and attributes of the individual estimator that affects estimating accuracy. These human factors are examined under the headings of the role of the estimators, skills of the estimator, characteristics of the estimator, interpretation of data, and the influence of expertise.

Which procurement system? Towards a universal procurement selection technique

Two approaches are described, which aid the selection of the most appropriate procurement arrangements for a building project. The first is a multi-attribute technique based on the National Economic Development Office procurement path decision chart. A small study is described in which the utility factors involved were weighted by averaging the scores of five 'experts' for three hypothetical building projects. A concordance analysis is used to provide some evidence of any abnormal data sources. When applied to the study data, one of the experts was seen to be atypical. The second approach is by means of discriminant analysis. This was found to provide reasonably consistent predictions through three discriminant functions. The analysis also showed the quality criteria to have no significant impact on the decision process. Both approaches provided identical and intuitively correct answers in the study described. Some concluding remarks are made on the potential of discriminant analysis for future research and development in procurement selection techniques.

Integrated genomic characterization of endometrial carcinoma

We performed an integrated genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic characterization of 373 endometrial carcinomas using array- and sequencing-based technologies. Uterine serous tumours and ∼25% of high-grade endometrioid tumours had extensive copy number alterations, few DNA methylation changes, low oestrogen receptor/progesterone receptor levels, and frequent TP53 mutations. Most endometrioid tumours had few copy number alterations or TP53 mutations, but frequent mutations in PTEN, CTNNB1, PIK3CA, ARID1A and KRAS and novel mutations in the SWI/SNF chromatin remodelling complex gene ARID5B. A subset of endometrioid tumours that we identified had a markedly increased transversion mutation frequency and newly identified hotspot mutations in POLE. Our results classified endometrial cancers into four categories: POLE ultramutated, microsatellite instability hypermutated, copy-number low, and copy-number high. Uterine serous carcinomas share genomic features with ovarian serous and basal-like breast carcinomas. We demonstrated that the genomic features of endometrial carcinomas permit a reclassification that may affect post-surgical adjuvant treatment for women with aggressive tumours.

A Framework for Adaptation of Australian Households to Heat Waves

Climate change is leading to an increased frequency and severity of heat waves. Spells of several consecutive days of unusually high temperatures have led to increased mortality rates for the more vulnerable in the community. The problem is compounded by the escalating energy costs and increasing peak electrical demand as people become more reliant on air conditioning. Domestic air conditioning is the primary determinant of peak power demand which has been a major driver of higher electricity costs. This report presents the findings of multidisciplinary research which develops a national framework to evaluate the potential impacts of heat waves. It presents a technical, social and economic approach to adapt Australian residential buildings to ameliorate the impact of heat waves in the community and reduce the risk of its adverse outcomes. Through the development of a methodology for estimating the impact of global warming on key weather parameters in 2030 and 2050, it is possible to re-evaluate the size and anticipated energy consumption of air conditioners in future years for various climate zones in Australia. Over the coming decades it is likely that mainland Australia will require more cooling than heating. While in some parts the total electricity usage for heating and cooling may remain unchanged, there is an overall significant increase in peak electricity demand, likely to further drive electricity prices. Through monitoring groups of households in South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland, the impact of heat waves on both thermal comfort sensation and energy consumption for air conditioning has been evaluated. The results show that households are likely to be able to tolerate slightly increased temperature levels indoors during periods of high outside temperatures. The research identified that household electricity costs are likely to rise above what is currently projected due to the impact of climate change. Through a number of regulatory changes to both household design and air conditioners, this impact can be minimised. A number of proposed retrofit and design measures are provided, which can readily reduce electricity usage for cooling at minimal cost to the household. Using a number of social research instruments, it is evident that households are willing to change behaviour rather than to spend money. Those on lower income and elderly individuals are the least able to afford the use of air conditioning and should be a priority for interventions and assistance. Increasing community awareness of cost effective strategies to manage comfort and health during heat waves is a high priority recommended action. Overall, the research showed that a combined approach including behaviour change, dwelling modification and improved air conditioner selection can readily adapt Australian households to the impact of heat waves, reducing the risk of heat related deaths and household energy costs.

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

The increased risks of death and extra lengths of hospital and ICU stay from hospital-acquired bloodstream infections : a case-control study

Objectives Hospital-acquired bloodstream infections are known to increase the risk of death and prolong hospital stay, but precise estimates of these two important outcomes from well-designed studies are rare, particularly for non-intensive care unit (ICU) patients. We aimed to calculate accurate estimates, which are vital for estimating the economic costs of hospital-acquired bloodstream infections.

Review : "Quality of life: the assessment, analysis and interpretation of patient-reported outcomes (2nd Ed.)" by Peter M. Fayers & David Machin

An updated version, this excellent text is a timely addition to the library of any nurse researching in oncology or other settings where individuals’ quality of life must be understood. Health-related quality of life should be a central aspect of studies concerned with health and illness. Indeed, considerable evidence has recently emerged in oncology and other research settings that selfreported quality of life is of great prognostic significance and may be the most reliable predictor of subsequent morbidity and mortality. From a nursing perspective, it is also gratifying to note that novel therapy and other oncology studies increasingly recognize the importance of understanding patients’ subjective experiences of an intervention over time and to ascertain whether patients perceive that a new intervention makes a difference to their quality of life and treatment outcomes. Measurements of quality of life are now routine in clinical trials of chemotherapy drugs and are often considered the prime outcome of interest in the cost/benefit analyses of these treatments. The authors have extensive experience in qualityof- life assessment in cancer clinical trials, where most of the pioneering work into quality of life has been conducted. That said, many of the health-related qualityof- life issues discussed are common to many illnesses, and researchers outside of cancer should find the book equally helpful.

Predicting invasion in grassland ecosystems: is exotic dominance the real embarrassment of richness?

Invasions have increased the size of regional species pools, but are typically assumed to reduce native diversity. However, global-scale tests of this assumption have been elusive because of the focus on exotic species richness, rather than relative abundance. This is problematic because low invader richness can indicate invasion resistance by the native community or, alternatively, dominance by a single exotic species. Here, we used a globally replicated study to quantify relationships between exotic richness and abundance in grass-dominated ecosystems in 13 countries on six continents, ranging from salt marshes to alpine tundra. We tested effects of human land use, native community diversity, herbivore pressure, and nutrient limitation on exotic plant dominance. Despite its widespread use, exotic richness was a poor proxy for exotic dominance at low exotic richness, because sites that contained few exotic species ranged from relatively pristine (low exotic richness and cover) to almost completely exotic-dominated ones (low exotic richness but high exotic cover). Both exotic cover and richness were predicted by native plant diversity (native grass richness) and land use (distance to cultivation). Although climate was important for predicting both exotic cover and richness, climatic factors predicting cover (precipitation variability) differed from those predicting richness (maximum temperature and mean temperature in the wettest quarter). Herbivory and nutrient limitation did not predict exotic richness or cover. Exotic dominance was greatest in areas with low native grass richness at the site- or regional-scale. Although this could reflect native grass displacement, a lack of biotic resistance is a more likely explanation, given that grasses comprise the most aggressive invaders. These findings underscore the need to move beyond richness as a surrogate for the extent of invasion, because this metric confounds monodominance with invasion resistance. Monitoring species' relative abundance will more rapidly advance our understanding of invasions.

The knowledge translation pathway for timely diagnosis of dementia

There has been significant debate about the value of screening for dementia, and the need for early diagnosis. Options include Gene testing, early risk assessment, screening, case finding and review when a patient or carer identify that they have symptoms. This paper is not focused on these early approaches to identifying people with dementia. It is focused on the period when a patient or a carer has recognised that there are some memory problems and they are seeking assistance with a diagnosis or explanation in relation to memory loss.

The beneficial effects of specialist thoracic surgery on the resection rate for non-small-cell lung cancer

We aimed to evaluate the effect of the appointment of a dedicated specialist thoracic surgeon on surgical practice for lung cancer previously served by cardio-thoracic surgeons. Outcomes were compared for the 240 patients undergoing surgical resection for lung cancer in two distinct 3-year periods: Group A: 65 patients, 1994-1996 (pre-specialist); Group B: 175 patients, 1997-1999 (post-specialist). The changes implemented resulted in a significant increase in resection rate (from 12.2 to 23.4%, P<0.001), operations in the elderly (over 75 years) and extended resections. There were no significant differences in stage distribution, in-hospital mortality or stage-specific survival after surgery. Lung cancer surgery provided by specialists within a multidisciplinary team resulted in increased surgical resection rates without compromising outcome. Our results strengthen the case for disease-specific specialists in the treatment of lung cancer. © 2004 Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Retaining the thin blue line : What shapes workers' intentions not to quit the current work environment

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between workplace factors and the intentions of police officers to quit their current department. Design/methodology/approach – Data from a survey of Baltimore officers, designed to examine the relationship between police stress and domestic violence in police families were used. Using multivariate regression analysis, the authors focus on the officers' stated intentions to look for alternative employment, with proxies for social and workplace factors. Findings – Higher levels of cooperation (trust), interactional justice and work-life-balance reduce police officers' intentions to quit. While high levels of physical and psychological strain and trauma are not correlated with intentions to quit. Research limitations/implications – A discernible limitation of this study is the age of the data analyzed and that many changes have occurred in recent times (policing and social). It would be of great interest to repeat this study to gauge the true effect. Practical implications – There are policy implications for retention and recruitment: it may possible to decrease the ethnic and gender gaps, through identifying officers at risk and creating programs to hold existing minorities, recruit more, whilst maintaining a strong, happy and healthy department. Originality/value – This study examines the impact of workplace factors on quitting intention for police officers. It is demonstrated that social capital, fairness and work-life balance are moderators for quitting, adding to the literature on worker retention, as little research has been done using multivariate analysis on quitting intentions.

Treatment rationale study design for the MetLung trial : a randomized, double-blind phase III study of onartuzumab (MetMAb) in combination with erlotinib versus erlotinib alone in patients who have received standard chemotherapy for stage IIIB or IV met-positive non-small-cell lung cancer

We present the treatment rationale and study design of the MetLung phase III study. This study will investigate onartuzumab (MetMAb) in combination with erlotinib compared with erlotinib alone, as second- or third-line treatment, in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who are Met-positive by immunohistochemistry. Approximately 490 patients (245 per treatment arm) will receive erlotinib (150 mg oral daily) plus onartuzumab or placebo (15 mg/kg intravenous every 3 weeks) until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, patient or physician decision to discontinue, or death. The efficacy objectives of this study are to compare overall survival (OS) (primary endpoint), progression-free survival, and response rates between the 2 treatment arms. In addition, safety, quality of life, pharmacokinetics, and translational research will be investigated across treatment arms. If the primary objective (OS) is achieved, this study will provide robust results toward an alternative treatment option for patients with Met-positive second- or third-line NSCLC. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All Rights Reserved.

The effect of extent of local resection on patterns of disease progression in malignant pleural mesothelioma

Background We sought to determine whether or not there are differences in disease progression after radical or nonradical (debulking) surgical procedures for malignant pleural mesothelioma. Methods Over a 49-month period, 132 patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma underwent surgery. Fifty-three underwent extrapleural pneumonectomy and 79 underwent nonradical procedures. Time to evidence of clinical disease progression was recorded, as was the site(s) of that disease. Results One-hundred nineteen patients were evaluable, of which 59% (22 radical; 48 nonradical) had disease progression. Overall 30-day mortality was 8.5% (7.5% radical; 9% nonradical). The median time to overall disease progression was considerably longer after extrapleural pneumonectomy than debulking surgery (319 days vs 197 days, p = 0.019), as was the time to local disease progression (631 days vs 218 days, p = 0.0018). There was no preponderance of earlier stage disease in the radical surgery group. There was a trend toward prolonged survival in those undergoing radical surgery, but no significant difference between the groups (497 days vs 324 days, p = 0.079). In those who had extrapleural pneumonectomy, time-to-disease progression significantly decreased with N2 disease compared with N0/1 involvement (197 days vs 358 days, p = 0.02). Conclusions Extrapleural pneumonectomy may be preferable to debulking surgery in malignant pleural mesothelioma to delay disease progression and give greater control of local disease. Involvement of N2 nodes is associated with accelerated disease progression and is therefore a contraindication to extrapleural pneumonectomy. © 2004 by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons.

French version of the Family Attitude Scale : psychometric properties and relation of attitudes to the respondent's psychiatric status

The Family Attitude Scale (FAS) is a self-report measure of critical or hostile attitudes and behaviors towards another family member, and demonstrates an ability to predict relapse in psychoses. Data are not currently available on a French version of the scale. The present study developed a French version of the FAS, using a large general population sample to test its internal structure, criterion validity and relationships with the respondents' symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses, and examined the reciprocity of FAS ratings by respondents and their partners. A total of 2072 adults from an urban population undertook a diagnostic interview and completed self-report measures, including an FAS about their partner. A subset of participants had partners who also completed the FAS. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed an excellent fit by a single-factor model, and the FAS demonstrated a strong association with dyadic adjustment. FAS scores of respondents were affected by their anxiety levels and mood, alcohol and anxiety diagnoses, and moderate reciprocity of attitudes and behaviors between the partners was seen. The French version of the FAS has similarly strong psychometric properties to the original English version. Future research should assess the ability of the French FAS to predict relapse of psychiatric disorders.