Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Transition from adolescence to adulthood in congenital heart disease - Many roads lead to Rome

More than 90% of children born with heart defects reach adulthood. They continue to require specialized medical care. In most countries, their care has to be transferred from the pediatric care environment to specialized adult clinics. This transfer of care usually occurs at a time when adolescents become young adults. Supporting adolescents and emerging adults with congenital heart disease through transition has been recognized as an important task of their treating teams in recent years. An environment where adolescents feel welcome and where education and patient participation are fostered is crucial. For an optimal transition process, patients, their families and all health care providers need to be involved. Different models for transition programs have emerged, depending on local policies and resources. The authors offer insight into established transition programs in Bern and Zurich, Switzerland. Advantages and challenges of different models of care and transition programs are presented.

Editorial: Take Me Home, Down Country Roads

Those of us committed to the tenets of Family Preservation must advocate for increased awareness and attention to the needs of children and their families in rural America. "Country roads" and the rural spaces they traverse have been eulogized by many poets and song writers as ideal places to live. But they may not be ideal for everyone. The past few months, it has become all too evident that rural America is not immune to acts of extreme violence by troubled children. Even though almost 1/3 of American youth live in rural areas, they have been "virtually ignored by mental health service planners and providers"(Cutrona, Halvorson, & Russell, 1996, p. 217). Mental health risk factors such as poverty, parental alcohol abuse, and family instability are on the rise in rural areas, and there has been an increase in suicide attempts, family violence, depression, and alcohol abuse (Cutrona, Halvorson, & Russell, 1996; Petti & Leviton, 1986; National Mental Health Association, 1988). Native Americans are especially concerned about the increases in child abuse and neglect, depression, substance abuse, and suicide in their communities.

Abundance and biomass of dinoflagellates and ciliates at time series station Helgoland Roads, North Sea, 2007-2009

A monitoring programme for microzooplankton was started at the long-term sampling station ''Kabeltonne'' at Helgoland Roads (54°11.30' N; 7°54.00' E) in January 2007 in order to provide more detailed knowledge on microzooplankton occurrence, composition and seasonality patterns at this site and to complement the existing plankton data series. Ciliate and dinoflagellate cell concentration and carbon biomass were recorded on a weekly basis. Heterotrophic dinoflagellates were considerably more important in terms of biomass than ciliates, especially during the summer months. However, in early spring, ciliates were the major group of microzooplankton grazers as they responded more quickly to phytoplankton food availability. Mixotrophic dinoflagellates played a secondary role in terms of biomass when compared to heterotrophic species; nevertheless, they made up an intense late summer bloom in 2007. The photosynthetic ciliate Myrionecta rubra bloomed at the end of the sampling period. Due to its high biomass when compared to crustacean plankton especially during the spring bloom, microzooplankton should be regarded as the more important phytoplankton grazer group at Helgoland Roads. Based on these results, analyses of biotic and abiotic factors driving microzooplankton composition and abundance are necessary for a full understanding of this important component of the plankton.