Climate variability and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome transmission in northeastern China

Background: The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic variables. However, few studies have examined the quantitative relationship between climate variation and HFRS transmission. ---------- Objective: We examined the potential impact of climate variability on HFRS transmission and developed climate-based forecasting models for HFRS in northeastern China. ---------- Methods: We obtained data on monthly counts of reported HFRS cases in Elunchun and Molidawahaner counties for 1997–2007 from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention and climate data from the Chinese Bureau of Meteorology. Cross-correlations assessed crude associations between climate variables, including rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), relative humidity (RH), and the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) and monthly HFRS cases over a range of lags. We used time-series Poisson regression models to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables to HFRS transmission. ----------- Results: Cross-correlation analyses showed that rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI were significantly associated with monthly HFRS cases with lags of 3–5 months in both study areas. The results of Poisson regression indicated that after controlling for the autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend, rainfall, LST, RH, and MEI with lags of 3–5 months were associated with HFRS in both study areas. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS. ---------- Conclusions: Climate variability plays a significant role in HFRS transmission in northeastern China. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.

How automated speed enforcement may reduce travel time variability and result in travel time savings : the case study of the loop 101 speed enforcement program in Scottsdale, Arizona

The city of Scottsdale Arizona implemented the first fixed photo Speed Enforcement camera demonstration Program (SEP) on a US freeway in 2006. A comprehensive before-and-after analysis of the impact of the SEP on safety revealed significant reductions in crash frequency and severity, which indicates that the SEP is a promising countermeasure for improving safety. However, there is often a trade off between safety and mobility when safety investments are considered. As a result, identifying safety countermeasures that both improve safety and reduce Travel Time Variability (TTV) is a desirable goal for traffic safety engineers. This paper reports on the analysis of the mobility impacts of the SEP by simulating the traffic network with and without the SEP, calibrated to real world conditions. The simulation results show that the SEP decreased the TTV: the risk of unreliable travel was at least 23% higher in the ‘without SEP’ scenario than in the ‘with SEP’ scenario. In addition, the total Travel Time Savings (TTS) from the SEP was estimated to be at least ‘569 vehicle-hours/year.’ Consequently, the SEP is an efficient countermeasure not only for reducing crashes but also for improving mobility through TTS and reduced TTV.

A DRD2 polymorphism predicts PANSS score variability in schizophrenia patients treated with antipsychotics

Antipsychotic medications act as either antagonists or partial agonists of the dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) and antipsychotic drugs vary widely in their binding affinity for the D2 receptor (Kapur and Seeman, 2000). The DRD2 957CNT (rs6277) polymorphism has previously been associated with schizophrenia (Lawford et al., 2005) and the T-allele of the 957CNT polymorphism is associated with reduced mRNA stability and synthesis of the dopamine D2 receptor (Duan et al., 2003). The aim of the study was to determine if the rs6277 polymorphism predicts some of the variability of positive and negative symptoms observed in schizophrenia patients being treated with antipsychotic medication.

Ethical fashion : the human stories driving a fashion movement

This paper examines and compares two stories, the novel Helen Fleetwood (Elizabeth, 1841) and the film China Blue (Teddy Bear Films, 2005), in relation to the Ethical Fashion movement. In 2005, more than 50 designers from around the world took part in The Ethical Fashion Show in Paris. This movement dictates that designers ensure that their garments are produced in an ethical manner, rather than support the ‘sweatshop’ environments of some industrialists determined to make a profit at the expense of workers rights. The momentum of the Ethical Fashion movement suggests that it is possible for fashion to be ethical, desirable and profitable in the 21st century. In 1841, after extensive research, Charlotte Elizabeth Tonna (using the pseudonym Charlotte Elizabeth) began to write about the atrocities of the factory system in industrialised England. Her novel, Helen Fleetwood, is one of the earliest examples of this kind of work, providing the reader with an extensive insight into the life of English factory workers in the mid-19th century. The story is about the Widow Green and her orphan dependents who are led, through circumstance, to leave their rural home and take up employment in the cotton mills of Manchester, with the hope of having an independent existence. Instead they discover the realities of factory life – extremely long hours, unsafe conditions, poor wages and a steady decline into extreme poverty. In his film China Blue (Teddy Bear Films, 2005), director Micha X. Peled tells an alarmingly similar tale set in 21st century China. This ‘docu-drama’ (a recreation from actual interviews and diary entries) tells the story of ‘Little Jasmine’ who leaves her family’s farm to pursue an independent life in Southern China’s manufacturing district. It is not long before the realities of modern factory life are revealed to the teenage ‘heroine’ – crowded dormitories, long working hours, arbitrary fines and wages that do not compare with those of workers in the Western world. While much of the human story remains unchanged, there have been significant improvements in technology and safety in the last 165 years that result in the reality that not all clothing manufacture is performed in ‘sweatshop’ conditions. After a recent visit to a manufacturing plant in China, consultation with peers in the industry and having worked in the Australian fashion industry for many years, the author compares these stories with her own experiences.

Postural balance under normal and altered sensory conditions in normal-weight and overweight children

Background Little or no research has been done in the overweight child on the relative contribution of multisensory information to maintain postural stability. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate postural balance control under normal and experimentally altered sensory conditions in normal-weight versus overweight children. Methods Sixty children were stratified into a younger (7–9 yr) and an older age group (10–12 yr). Participants were also classified as normal-weight (n = 22) or overweight (n = 38), according to the international BMI cut-off points for children. Postural stability was assessed during quiet bilateral stance in four sensory conditions (eyes open or closed, normal or reduced plantar sensation), using a Kistler force plate to quantify COP dynamics. Coefficients of variation were calculated as well to describe intra-individual variability. Findings Removal of vision resulted in systematically higher amounts of postural sway, but no significant BMI group differences were demonstrated across sensory conditions. However, under normal conditions lower plantar cutaneous sensation was associated with higher COP velocities and maximal excursion of the COP in the medial-lateral direction for the overweight group. Regardless of condition, higher variability was shown in the overweight children within the 7–9 yr old subgroup for postural sway velocity, and more specifically medial–lateral velocity. Interpretation In spite of these subtle differences, results did not establish any clear underlying sensory organization impairments that may affect standing balance performance in overweight children compared to normal-weight peers. Consequently, it is believed that other factors account for overweight children's functional balance deficiencies.

Focus of attention and its impact on movement behaviour

Investigations into the relative effectiveness of either focusing on movement form (internal focus) or movement effects (external focus) have tended to dominate research on instructional constraints. However, rather than adopting a comparative approach to determine which focus of attention is more effective, analysis of the relative efficacy of each specific instruction focus during motor learning could be more relevant for both researchers and practitioners. Theoretical advances in the motor learning literature from a nonlinear dynamics perspective might explain the processes that underlie the effect of different attentional focus instructions. Referencing ideas and concepts from a current motor learning model, differential effects of either internal or external focus of instructions are examined. This paper also highlights some deficiencies in extant theory and research design on focus of attention which require further investigations.

Variability of input parameters related to pollutants build-up in stormwater quality modelling

The variability of input parameters is the most important source of overall model uncertainty. Therefore, an in-depth understanding of the variability is essential for uncertainty analysis of stormwater quality model outputs. This paper presents the outcomes of a research study which investigated the variability of pollutants build-up characteristics on road surfaces in residential, commercial and industrial land uses. It was found that build-up characteristics vary highly even within the same land use. Additionally, industrial land use showed relatively higher variability of maximum build-up, build-up rate and particle size distribution, whilst the commercial land use displayed a relatively higher variability of pollutant-solid ratio. Among the various build-up parameters analysed, D50 (volume-median-diameter) displayed the relatively highest variability for all three land uses.

An analysis of the variability in Queensland WiM data

The Queensland Department of Main Roads uses Weigh-in-Motion (WiM) devices to covertly monitor (at highway speed) axle mass, axle configurations and speed of heavy vehicles on the road network. Such data is critical for the planning and design of the road network. Some of the data appears excessively variable. The current work considers the nature, magnitude and possible causes of WiM data variability. Over fifty possible causes of variation in WiM data have been identified in the literature. Data exploration has highlighted five basic types of variability specifically: ----- • cycling, both diurnal and annual;----- • consistent but unreasonable data;----- • data jumps;----- • variations between data from opposite sides of the one road; and ----- • non-systematic variations.----- This work is part of wider research into procedures to eliminate or mitigate the influence of WiM data variability.

Cluster analysis of movement patterns in multiarticular actions: A tutorial

The present paper proposes a technical analysis method for extracting information about movement patterning in studies of motor control, based on a cluster analysis of movement kinematics. In a tutorial fashion, data from three different experiments are presented to exemplify and validate the technical method. When applied to three different basketball-shooting techniques, the method clearly distinguished between the different patterns. When applied to a cyclical wrist supination-pronation task, the cluster analysis provided the same results as an analysis using the conventional discrete relative phase measure. Finally, when analyzing throwing performance constrained by distance to target, the method grouped movement patterns together according to throwing distance. In conclusion, the proposed technical method provides a valuable tool to improve understanding of coordination and control in different movement models, including multiarticular actions.

Exploiting system fluctuations. Differential training in physical prevention and rehabilitation programs for health and exercise

Background: Traditional causal modeling of health interventions tends to be linear in nature and lacks multidisciplinarity. Consequently, strategies for exercise prescription in health maintenance are typically group based and focused on the role of a common optimal health status template toward which all individuals should aspire. ----- ----- Materials and methods: In this paper, we discuss inherent weaknesses of traditional methods and introduce an approach exercise training based on neurobiological system variability. The significance of neurobiological system variability in differential learning and training was highlighted.----- ----- Results: Our theoretical analysis revealed differential training as a method by which neurobiological system variability could be harnessed to facilitate health benefits of exercise training. It was observed that this approach emphasizes the importance of using individualized programs in rehabilitation and exercise, rather than group-based strategies to exercise prescription.----- ----- Conclusion: Research is needed on potential benefits of differential training as an approach to physical rehabilitation and exercise prescription that could counteract psychological and physical effects of disease and illness in subelite populations. For example, enhancing the complexity and variability of movement patterns in exercise prescription programs might alleviate effects of depression in nonathletic populations and physical effects of repetitive strain injuries experienced by athletes in elite and developing sport programs.

Expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in older populations

The purpose of this review is to update expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in free-living healthy older populations. A search of the literature published since 2001 began with a keyword (pedometer, "step counter," "step activity monitor" or "accelerometer AND steps/day") search of PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), SportDiscus, and PsychInfo. An iterative process was then undertaken to abstract and verify studies of pedometer-determined physical activity (captured in terms of steps taken; distance only was not accepted) in free-living adult populations described as ≥ 50 years of age (studies that included samples which spanned this threshold were not included unless they provided at least some appropriately age-stratified data) and not specifically recruited based on any chronic disease or disability. We identified 28 studies representing at least 1,343 males and 3,098 females ranging in age from 50–94 years. Eighteen (or 64%) of the studies clearly identified using a Yamax pedometer model. Monitoring frames ranged from 3 days to 1 year; the modal length of time was 7 days (17 studies, or 61%). Mean pedometer-determined physical activity ranged from 2,015 steps/day to 8,938 steps/day. In those studies reporting such data, consistent patterns emerged: males generally took more steps/day than similarly aged females, steps/day decreased across study-specific age groupings, and BMI-defined normal weight individuals took more steps/day than overweight/obese older adults. The range of 2,000–9,000 steps/day likely reflects the true variability of physical activity behaviors in older populations. More explicit patterns, for example sex- and age-specific relationships, remain to be informed by future research endeavors.

Microscopic modelling of freeway operations

Freeways are divided roadways designed to facilitate the uninterrupted movement of motor vehicles. However, many freeways now experience demand flows in excess of capacity, leading to recurrent congestion. The Highway Capacity Manual (TRB, 1994) uses empirical macroscopic relationships between speed, flow and density to quantify freeway operations and performance. Capacity may be predicted as the maximum uncongested flow achievable. Although they are effective tools for design and analysis, macroscopic models lack an understanding of the nature of processes taking place in the system. Szwed and Smith (1972, 1974) and Makigami and Matsuo (1990) have shown that microscopic modelling is also applicable to freeway operations. Such models facilitate an understanding of the processes whilst providing for the assessment of performance, through measures of capacity and delay. However, these models are limited to only a few circumstances. The aim of this study was to produce more comprehensive and practical microscopic models. These models were required to accurately portray the mechanisms of freeway operations at the specific locations under consideration. The models needed to be able to be calibrated using data acquired at these locations. The output of the models needed to be able to be validated with data acquired at these sites. Therefore, the outputs should be truly descriptive of the performance of the facility. A theoretical basis needed to underlie the form of these models, rather than empiricism, which is the case for the macroscopic models currently used. And the models needed to be adaptable to variable operating conditions, so that they may be applied, where possible, to other similar systems and facilities. It was not possible to produce a stand-alone model which is applicable to all facilities and locations, in this single study, however the scene has been set for the application of the models to a much broader range of operating conditions. Opportunities for further development of the models were identified, and procedures provided for the calibration and validation of the models to a wide range of conditions. The models developed, do however, have limitations in their applicability. Only uncongested operations were studied and represented. Driver behaviour in Brisbane was applied to the models. Different mechanisms are likely in other locations due to variability in road rules and driving cultures. Not all manoeuvres evident were modelled. Some unusual manoeuvres were considered unwarranted to model. However the models developed contain the principal processes of freeway operations, merging and lane changing. Gap acceptance theory was applied to these critical operations to assess freeway performance. Gap acceptance theory was found to be applicable to merging, however the major stream, the kerb lane traffic, exercises only a limited priority over the minor stream, the on-ramp traffic. Theory was established to account for this activity. Kerb lane drivers were also found to change to the median lane where possible, to assist coincident mergers. The net limited priority model accounts for this by predicting a reduced major stream flow rate, which excludes lane changers. Cowan's M3 model as calibrated for both streams. On-ramp and total upstream flow are required as input. Relationships between proportion of headways greater than 1 s and flow differed for on-ramps where traffic leaves signalised intersections and unsignalised intersections. Constant departure onramp metering was also modelled. Minimum follow-on times of 1 to 1.2 s were calibrated. Critical gaps were shown to lie between the minimum follow-on time, and the sum of the minimum follow-on time and the 1 s minimum headway. Limited priority capacity and other boundary relationships were established by Troutbeck (1995). The minimum average minor stream delay and corresponding proportion of drivers delayed were quantified theoretically in this study. A simulation model was constructed to predict intermediate minor and major stream delays across all minor and major stream flows. Pseudo-empirical relationships were established to predict average delays. Major stream average delays are limited to 0.5 s, insignificant compared with minor stream delay, which reach infinity at capacity. Minor stream delays were shown to be less when unsignalised intersections are located upstream of on-ramps than signalised intersections, and less still when ramp metering is installed. Smaller delays correspond to improved merge area performance. A more tangible performance measure, the distribution of distances required to merge, was established by including design speeds. This distribution can be measured to validate the model. Merging probabilities can be predicted for given taper lengths, a most useful performance measure. This model was also shown to be applicable to lane changing. Tolerable limits to merging probabilities require calibration. From these, practical capacities can be estimated. Further calibration is required of traffic inputs, critical gap and minimum follow-on time, for both merging and lane changing. A general relationship to predict proportion of drivers delayed requires development. These models can then be used to complement existing macroscopic models to assess performance, and provide further insight into the nature of operations.

A mathematical model of chlamydial infection incorporating movement of chlamydial particles

We present a spatiotemporal mathematical model of chlamydial infection, host immune response and spatial movement of infectious particles. The re- sulting partial differential equations model both the dynamics of the infection and changes in infection profile observed spatially along the length of the host genital tract. This model advances previous chlamydia modelling by incorporating spatial change, which we also demonstrate to be essential when the timescale for movement of infectious particles is equal to, or shorter than, the developmental cycle timescale. Numerical solutions and model analysis are carried out, and we present a hypothesis regarding the potential for treatment and prevention of infection by increasing chlamydial particle motility.

Real-time evaluation of driver’s alertness on highways

Suburbanisation has been internationally a major phenomenon in the last decades. Suburb-to-suburb routes are nowadays the most widespread road journeys; and this resulted in an increment of distances travelled, particularly on faster suburban highways. The design of highways tends to over-simplify the driving task and this can result in decreased alertness. Driving behaviour is consequently impaired and drivers are then more likely to be involved in road crashes. This is particularly dangerous on highways where the speed limit is high. While effective countermeasures to this decrement in alertness do not currently exist, the development of in-vehicle sensors opens avenues for monitoring driving behaviour in real-time. The aim of this study is to evaluate in real-time the level of alertness of the driver through surrogate measures that can be collected from in-vehicle sensors. Slow EEG activity is used as a reference to evaluate driver's alertness. Data are collected in a driving simulator instrumented with an eye tracking system, a heart rate monitor and an electrodermal activity device (N=25 participants). Four different types of highways (driving scenario of 40 minutes each) are implemented through the variation of the road design (amount of curves and hills) and the roadside environment (amount of buildings and traffic). We show with Neural Networks that reduced alertness can be detected in real-time with an accuracy of 92% using lane positioning, steering wheel movement, head rotation, blink frequency, heart rate variability and skin conductance level. Such results show that it is possible to assess driver's alertness with surrogate measures. Such methodology could be used to warn drivers of their alertness level through the development of an in-vehicle device monitoring in real-time drivers' behaviour on highways, and therefore it could result in improved road safety.

From Deep North to international governance exemplar : Fitzgerald's impact on the international anti-corruption movement

In pre-Fitzgerald Queensland, the existence of corruption was widely known but its extent and modes of operation were not fully evident. The Fitzgerald Report identified the need for reform of the structure, procedures and efficiency in public administration in Queensland. What was most striking in the Queensland reform process was that a new model for combatting corruption had been developed. Rather than rely upon a single law and a single institution, existing institutions were strengthened and new institutions were introduced to create a set of mutually supporting and mutually checking institutions, agencies and laws that jointly sought to improve governmental standards and combat corruption. Some of the reforms were either unique to Queensland or very rare. One of the strengths of this approach was that it avoided creating a single over-arching institution to fight corruption. There are many powerful opponents of reform. Influential institutions and individuals resist any interference with their privileges. In order to cause a mass exodus from an entrenched corruption system, a seminal event or defining process is needed to alter expectations and incentives that are sufficient to encourage significant numbers of individuals to desert the corruption system and assist the integrity system in exposing and destroying it. The Fitzgerald Inquiry was such an event. This article also briefly addresses methods for destroying national corruption systems where they emerge and exist.