Ray-theoretical modeling of secondary microseism P-waves

Secondary microseism sources are pressure fluctuations close to the ocean surface. They generate acoustic P-waves that propagate in water down to the ocean bottom where they are partly reflected, and partly transmitted into the crust to continue their propagation through the Earth. We present the theory for computing the displacement power spectral density of secondary microseism P-waves recorded by receivers in the far field. In the frequency domain, the P-wave displacement can be modeled as the product of (1) the pressure source, (2) the source site effect that accounts for the constructive interference of multiply reflected P-waves in the ocean, (3) the propagation from the ocean bottom to the stations, (4) the receiver site effect. Secondary microseism P-waves have weak amplitudes, but they can be investigated by beamforming analysis. We validate our approach by analyzing the seismic signals generated by Typhoon Ioke (2006) and recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. Back projecting the beam onto the ocean surface enables to follow the source motion. The observed beam centroid is in the vicinity of the pressure source derived from the ocean wave model WAVEWATCH IIIR. The pressure source is then used for modeling the beam and a good agreement is obtained between measured and modeled beam amplitude variation over time. This modeling approach can be used to invert P-wave noise data and retrieve the source intensity and lateral extent.

Advanced Methodologies in Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling of Managed Lanes

Managed lane strategies are innovative road operation schemes for addressing congestion problems. These strategies operate a lane (lanes) adjacent to a freeway that provides congestion-free trips to eligible users, such as transit or toll-payers. To ensure the successful implementation of managed lanes, the demand on these lanes need to be accurately estimated. Among different approaches for predicting this demand, the four-step demand forecasting process is most common. Managed lane demand is usually estimated at the assignment step. Therefore, the key to reliably estimating the demand is the utilization of effective assignment modeling processes. Managed lanes are particularly effective when the road is functioning at near-capacity. Therefore, capturing variations in demand and network attributes and performance is crucial for their modeling, monitoring and operation. As a result, traditional modeling approaches, such as those used in static traffic assignment of demand forecasting models, fail to correctly predict the managed lane demand and the associated system performance. The present study demonstrates the power of the more advanced modeling approach of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA), as well as the shortcomings of conventional approaches, when used to model managed lanes in congested environments. In addition, the study develops processes to support an effective utilization of DTA to model managed lane operations. Static and dynamic traffic assignments consist of demand, network, and route choice model components that need to be calibrated. These components interact with each other, and an iterative method for calibrating them is needed. In this study, an effective standalone framework that combines static demand estimation and dynamic traffic assignment has been developed to replicate real-world traffic conditions. With advances in traffic surveillance technologies collecting, archiving, and analyzing traffic data is becoming more accessible and affordable. The present study shows how data from multiple sources can be integrated, validated, and best used in different stages of modeling and calibration of managed lanes. Extensive and careful processing of demand, traffic, and toll data, as well as proper definition of performance measures, result in a calibrated and stable model, which closely replicates real-world congestion patterns, and can reasonably respond to perturbations in network and demand properties.

Layered Information Modeling and a Knowledge Organization Paradigm: Inherent Classification and the Design of Interoperable Systems

In knowledge technology work, as expressed by the scope of this conference, there are a number of communities, each uncovering new methods, theories, and practices. The Library and Information Science (LIS) community is one such community. This community, through tradition and innovation, theories and practice, organizes knowledge and develops knowledge technologies formed by iterative research hewn to the values of equal access and discovery for all. The Information Modeling community is another contributor to knowledge technologies. It concerns itself with the construction of symbolic models that capture the meaning of information and organize it in ways that are computer-based, but human understandable. A recent paper that examines certain assumptions in information modeling builds a bridge between these two communities, offering a forum for a discussion on common aims from a common perspective. In a June 2000 article, Parsons and Wand separate classes from instances in information modeling in order to free instances from what they call the “tyranny” of classes. They attribute a number of problems in information modeling to inherent classification – or the disregard for the fact that instances can be conceptualized independent of any class assignment. By faceting instances from classes, Parsons and Wand strike a sonorous chord with classification theory as understood in LIS. In the practice community and in the publications of LIS, faceted classification has shifted the paradigm of knowledge organization theory in the twentieth century. Here, with the proposal of inherent classification and the resulting layered information modeling, a clear line joins both the LIS classification theory community and the information modeling community. Both communities have their eyes turned toward networked resource discovery, and with this conceptual conjunction a new paradigmatic conversation can take place. Parsons and Wand propose that the layered information model can facilitate schema integration, schema evolution, and interoperability. These three spheres in information modeling have their own connotation, but are not distant from the aims of classification research in LIS. In this new conceptual conjunction, established by Parsons and Ward, information modeling through the layered information model, can expand the horizons of classification theory beyond LIS, promoting a cross-fertilization of ideas on the interoperability of subject access tools like classification schemes, thesauri, taxonomies, and ontologies. This paper examines the common ground between the layered information model and faceted classification, establishing a vocabulary and outlining some common principles. It then turns to the issue of schema and the horizons of conventional classification and the differences between Information Modeling and Library and Information Science. Finally, a framework is proposed that deploys an interpretation of the layered information modeling approach in a knowledge technologies context. In order to design subject access systems that will integrate, evolve and interoperate in a networked environment, knowledge organization specialists must consider a semantic class independence like Parsons and Wand propose for information modeling.

Customer Loyalty toward grocery retailing service: a multidimensional approach to costumer perceived value

Structured abstract Purpose: To deepen, in grocery retail context, the roles of consumer perceived value and consumer satisfaction, as antecedents’ dimensions of customer loyalty intentions. Design/Methodology/approach: Also employing a short version (12-items) of the original 19-item PERVAL scale of Sweeney & Soutar (2001), a structural equation modeling approach was applied to investigate statistical properties of the indirect influence on loyalty of a reflective second order customer perceived value model. The performance of three alternative estimation methods was compared through bootstrapping techniques. Findings: Results provided i) support for the use of the short form of the PERVAL scale in measuring consumer perceived value; ii) the influence of the four highly correlated independent latent predictors on satisfaction was well summarized by a higher-order reflective specification of consumer perceived value; iii) emotional and functional dimensions were determinants for the relationship with the retailer; iv) parameter’s bias with the three methods of estimation was only significant for bootstrap small sample sizes. Research limitations:/implications: Future research is needed to explore the use of the short form of the PERVAL scale in more homogeneous groups of consumers. Originality/value: Firstly, to indirectly explain customer loyalty mediated by customer satisfaction it was adopted a recent short form of PERVAL scale and a second order reflective conceptualization of value. Secondly, three alternative estimation methods were used and compared through bootstrapping and simulation procedures.

Data assimilation for advanced cross-scale unstructured-grid ocean modeling.

The coastal ocean is a complex environment with extremely dynamic processes that require a high-resolution and cross-scale modeling approach in which all hydrodynamic fields and scales are considered integral parts of the overall system. In the last decade, unstructured-grid models have been used to advance in seamless modeling between scales. On the other hand, the data assimilation methodologies to improve the unstructured-grid models in the coastal seas have been developed only recently and need significant advancements. Here, we link the unstructured-grid ocean modeling to the variational data assimilation methods. In particular, we show results from the modeling system SANIFS based on SHYFEM fully-baroclinic unstructured-grid model interfaced with OceanVar, a state-of-art variational data assimilation scheme adopted for several systems based on a structured grid. OceanVar implements a 3DVar DA scheme. The combination of three linear operators models the background error covariance matrix. The vertical part is represented using multivariate EOFs for temperature, salinity, and sea level anomaly. The horizontal part is assumed to be Gaussian isotropic and is modeled using a first-order recursive filter algorithm designed for structured and regular grids. Here we introduced a novel recursive filter algorithm for unstructured grids. A local hydrostatic adjustment scheme models the rapidly evolving part of the background error covariance. We designed two data assimilation experiments using SANIFS implementation interfaced with OceanVar over the period 2017-2018, one with only temperature and salinity assimilation by Argo profiles and the second also including sea level anomaly. The results showed a successful implementation of the approach and the added value of the assimilation for the active tracer fields. While looking at the broad basin, no significant improvements are highlighted for the sea level, requiring future investigations. Furthermore, a Machine Learning methodology based on an LSTM network has been used to predict the model SST increments.

Determination of coalescence kernels for high-shear granulation using DEM simulations

Discrete element method (DEM) modeling is used in parallel with a model for coalescence of deformable surface wet granules. This produces a method capable of predicting both collision rates and coalescence efficiencies for use in derivation of an overall coalescence kernel. These coalescence kernels can then be used in computationally efficient meso-scale models such as population balance equation (PBE) models. A soft-sphere DEM model using periodic boundary conditions and a unique boxing scheme was utilized to simulate particle flow inside a high-shear mixer. Analysis of the simulation results provided collision frequency, aggregation frequency, kinetic energy, coalescence efficiency and compaction rates for the granulation process. This information can be used to bridge the gap in multi-scale modeling of granulation processes between the micro-scale DEM/coalescence modeling approach and a meso-scale PBE modeling approach.

Developmental genetics of red cell indices during puberty: A longitudinal twin study

Red cell number and size increase during puberty, particularly in males. The aim of the present study was to determine whether expression of genes affecting red cell indices varied with age and sex. Haemoglobin, red cell count, and mean cellular volume were measured longitudinally on 578 pairs of twins at twelve, fourteen and sixteen years of age. Data were analysed using a structural equation modeling approach, in which a variety of univariate and longitudinal simplex models were fitted to the data. Significant heritability was demonstrated for all variables across all ages. The genes involved did not differ between the sexes, although there was evidence for sex limitation in the case of haemoglobin at age twelve. Longitudinal analyses indicated that new genes affecting red cell indices were expressed at different stages of puberty. Some of these genes affected the different red cell indices pleiotropically, while others had effects specific to one variable only.

Assessment of the ability to model proteins with leucine-rich repeats in light of the latest structural information

The three-dimensional structures of leucine-rich repeat (LRR) -containing proteins from five different families were previously predicted based on the crystal structure of the ribonuclease inhibitor. using an approach that combined homology-based modeling, structure-based sequence alignment of LRRs, and several rational assumptions. The structural models have been produced based on very limited sequence similarity, which, in general. cannot yield trustworthy predictions. Recently, the protein structures from three of these five families have been determined. In this report we estimate the quality of the modeling approach by comparing the models with the experimentally determined structures. The comparison suggests that the general architecture, curvature, interior/exterior orientations of side chains. and backbone conformation of the LRR structures can be predicted correctly. On the other hand. the analysis revealed that, in some cases. it is difficult to predict correctly the twist of the overall super-helical structure. Taking into consideration the conclusions from these comparisons, we identified a new family of bacterial LRR proteins and present its structural model. The reliability of the LRR protein modeling suggests that it would be informative to apply similar modeling approaches to other classes of solenoid proteins.

Linkage and Association Analysis of Radiation Damage Repair Genes XRCC3 and XRCC5 with Nevus Density in Adolescent Twins

Previous studies have shown that a deficiency in DNA damage repair is associated with increased cancer risk, and exposure to UV radiation is a major risk factor for the development of malignant melanoma. High density of common nevi (moles) is a major risk factor for cutaneous melanoma. A nevus may result from a mutation in a single UV-exposed melanocyte which failed to repair DNA damage in one or more critical genes. XRCC3 and XRCC5 may have an effect on nevus count through their function as components of DNA repair processes that may be involved directly or indirectly in the repair of DNA damage due to UV radiation. This study aims to test the hypothesis that the frequency of flat or raised moles is associated with polymorphism at or near these DNA repair genes, and that certain alleles are associated with less efficient DNA repair, and greater nevus density. Twins were recruited from schools in south eastern Queensland and were examined close to their 12th birthday. Nurses examined each individual and counted all moles on the entire body surface. A 10cM genome scan of 274 families (642 individuals) was performed and microsatellite polymorphisms in XRCC3 and adjacent to XRCC5 were also typed. Linkage and association of nevus count to these loci were tested simultaneously using a structural-equation modeling approach implemented in MX. There is weak evidence for linkage of XRCC5 to a QTL influencing raised mole count, and also weak association. There is also weak evidence for association between flat mole count and XRCC3. No tests were significant after correction for testing multiple alleles, nor were any of the tests for total association significant. If variation in XRCC3 or XRCC5 influences UV sensitivity, and indirectly affects nevus density, then the effects are small.

Simulation supplements field studies to determine no-till dryland corn population recommendations for semiarid western Nebraska

In a 2-yr multiple-site field study conducted in western Nebraska during 1999 and 2000, optimum dryland corn (Zea mays L.) population varied from less than 1.7 to more than 5.6 plants m(-2), depending largely on available water resources. The objective of this study was to use a modeling approach to investigate corn population recommendations for a wide range of seasonal variation. A corn growth simulation model (APSIM-maize) was coupled to long-term sequences of historical climatic data from western Nebraska to provide probabilistic estimates of dryland yield for a range of corn populations. Simulated populations ranged from 2 to 5 plants m(-2). Simulations began with one of three levels of available soil water at planting, either 80, 160, or 240 mm in the surface 1.5 m of a loam soil. Gross margins were maximized at 3 plants m(-2) when starting available water was 160 or 240 mm, and the expected probability of a financial loss at this population was reduced from about 10% at 160 mm to 0% at 240 mm. When starting available water was 80 mm, average gross margins were less than $15 ha(-1), and risk of financial loss exceeded 40%. Median yields were greatest when starting available soil water was 240 mm. However, perhaps the greater benefit of additional soil water at planting was reduction in the risk of making a financial loss. Dryland corn growers in western Nebraska are advised to use a population of 3 plants m(-2) as a base recommendation.

Role of the wider Azores region as a nursery ground for North Atlantic blue shark (Prionace glauca)

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar (Ecologia Marinha)

Complex dynamics of financial indices

This paper presents a novel method for the analysis of nonlinear financial and economic systems. The modeling approach integrates the classical concepts of state space representation and time series regression. The analytical and numerical scheme leads to a parameter space representation that constitutes a valid alternative to represent the dynamical behavior. The results reveal that business cycles can be clearly revealed, while the noise effects common in financial indices can elegantly be filtered out of the results.

Urban land use change analysis and modelling: a case study of Setubal-Sesimbra, Portugal

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Predicting the distribution of forest tree species using topographic variables and vegetation index in eastern Acre, Brazil

Species distribution modeling has relevant implications for the studies of biodiversity, decision making about conservation and knowledge about ecological requirements of the species. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the use of forest inventories can improve the estimation of occurrence probability, identify the limits of the potential distribution and habitat preference of a group of timber tree species. The environmental predictor variables were: elevation, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). To estimate the distribution of species we used the maximum entropy method (Maxent). In comparison with a random distribution, using topographic variables and vegetation index as features, the Maxent method predicted with an average accuracy of 86% the geographical distribution of studied species. The altitude and NDVI were the most important variables. There were limitations to the interpolation of the models for non-sampled locations and that are outside of the elevation gradient associated with the occurrence data in approximately 7% of the basin area. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) and Hura crepitans (assacu) is more likely to occur in nearby water course areas. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) and Astronium lecointei (aroeira) can also occur in upland forest and well drained soils. This modeling approach has potential for application on other tropical species still less studied, especially those that are under pressure from logging.