Fitting of Mixtures with Unspecified Number of Components Using Cross Validation Distance Estimate

Estimation of the number of mixture components (k) is an unsolved problem. Available methods for estimation of k include bootstrapping the likelihood ratio test statistics and optimizing a variety of validity functionals such as AIC, BIC/MDL, and ICOMP. We investigate the minimization of distance between fitted mixture model and the true density as a method for estimating k. The distances considered are Kullback-Leibler (KL) and “L sub 2”. We estimate these distances using cross validation. A reliable estimate of k is obtained by voting of B estimates of k corresponding to B cross validation estimates of distance. This estimation methods with KL distance is very similar to Monte Carlo cross validated likelihood methods discussed by Smyth (2000). With focus on univariate normal mixtures, we present simulation studies that compare the cross validated distance method with AIC, BIC/MDL, and ICOMP. We also apply the cross validation estimate of distance approach along with AIC, BIC/MDL and ICOMP approach, to data from an osteoporosis drug trial in order to find groups that differentially respond to treatment.

Angiographic C-arm CT- versus MDCT-guided stereotactic punctures of liver lesions: nonrigid phantom study

OBJECTIVE Angiographic C-arm CT may allow performing percutaneous stereotactic tumor ablations in the interventional radiology suite. Our purpose was to evaluate the accuracy of using C-arm CT for single and multimodality image fusions and to compare the targeting accuracy of liver lesions with the reference standard of MDCT. MATERIALS AND METHODS C-arm CT and MDCT scans were obtained of a nonrigid rapid prototyping liver phantom containing five 1-mm targets that were placed under skin-simulating deformable plastic foam. Target registration errors of image fusion were evaluated for single-modality and multimodality image fusions. A navigation system and stereotactic aiming device were used to evaluate target positioning errors on postinterventional scans with the needles in place fused with the C-arm CT or MDCT planning images. RESULTS Target registration error of the image fusion showed no significant difference (p > 0.05) between both modalities. In five series with a total of 25 punctures for each modality, the lateral target positioning error (i.e., the lateral distance between the needle tip and the planned trajectory) was similar for C-arm CT (mean [± SD], 1.6 ± 0.6 mm) and MDCT (1.82 ± .97 mm) (p = 0.33). CONCLUSION In a nonrigid liver phantom, angiographic C-arm CT may provide similar image fusion accuracy for comparison of intra- and postprocedure control images with the planning images and enables stereotactic targeting accuracy similar to that of MDCT.

Long-distance photogrammetric trait estimation in free-ranging animals: A new approach

The acquisition of accurate information on the size of traits in animals is fundamental for the study of animal ecology and evolution and their management. We demonstrate how morphological traits of free-ranging animals can reliably be estimated on very large observation distances of several hundred meters by the use of ordinary digital photographic equipment and simple photogrammetric software. In our study, we estimated the length of horn annuli in free-ranging male Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) by taking already measured horn annuli of conspecifics on the same photographs as scaling units. Comparisons with hand-measured horn annuli lengths and repeatability analyses revealed a high accuracy of the photogrammetric estimates. If length estimations of specific horn annuli are based on multiple photographs measurement errors of <5.5 mm can be expected. In the current study the application of the described photogrammetric procedure increased the sample size of animals with known horn annuli length by an additional 104%. The presented photogrammetric procedure is of broad applicability and represents an easy, robust and cost-efficient method for the measuring of individuals in populations where animals are hard to capture or to approach.

Long Distance Electron Transfer at the Metal/Alkanethiol/Ionic Liquid Interface

The rate constants of simple electron transfer (ET) reactions in room temperature ionic liquids (ILs) available now are rather high, typically at the edge of experimental accuracy. To consider ET phenomena in these media in view of theory developed earlier for molecular solvents, it is crucial to provide quantitative comparison of experimental kinetic data for certain reactions. We report this comparison for ferrocene/ferrocenium reaction. The ET distance is fixed by Au surface modification by alkanethiol self-assembled monolayers, which were characterized by in situ scanning tunneling microscopy. The dependence of ln kapp on barrier thickness in the range of ca. 6–20 Å is linear, with a slope typical for the same plots in aqueous media. This result confirms diabatic mode of Fc oxidation at long distance. The data for shorter ET distances point to the adiabatic regime of ET at a bare gold surface, although more detailed computational studies are required to justify this conclusion.

Detection of muscle wasting in patients with chronic heart failure using C-terminal agrin fragment: results from the Studies Investigating Co-morbidities Aggravating Heart Failure (SICA-HF).

AIMS Skeletal muscle wasting affects 20% of patients with chronic heart failure and has serious implications for their activities of daily living. Assessment of muscle wasting is technically challenging. C-terminal agrin-fragment (CAF), a breakdown product of the synaptically located protein agrin, has shown early promise as biomarker of muscle wasting. We sought to investigate the diagnostic properties of CAF in muscle wasting among patients with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS We assessed serum CAF levels in 196 patients who participated in the Studies Investigating Co-morbidities Aggravating Heart Failure (SICA-HF). Muscle wasting was identified using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) in 38 patients (19.4%). Patients with muscle wasting demonstrated higher CAF values than those without (125.1 ± 59.5 pmol/L vs. 103.8 ± 42.9 pmol/L, P = 0.01). Using receiver operating characteristics (ROC), we calculated the optimal CAF value to identify patients with muscle wasting as >87.5 pmol/L, which had a sensitivity of 78.9% and a specificity of 43.7%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.63 (95% confidence interval 0.56-0.70). Using simple regression, we found that serum CAF was associated with handgrip (R = - 0.17, P = 0.03) and quadriceps strength (R = - 0.31, P < 0.0001), peak oxygen consumption (R = - 0.5, P < 0.0001), 6-min walk distance (R = - 0.32, P < 0.0001), and gait speed (R = - 0.2, P = 0.001), as well as with parameters of kidney and liver function, iron metabolism and storage. CONCLUSION CAF shows good sensitivity for the detection of skeletal muscle wasting in patients with heart failure. Its assessment may be useful to identify patients who should undergo additional testing, such as detailed body composition analysis. As no other biomarker is currently available, further investigation is warranted.

The utility of preoperative six-minute-walk distance in lung transplantation

RATIONALE The use of 6-minute-walk distance (6MWD) as an indicator of exercise capacity to predict postoperative survival in lung transplantation has not previously been well studied. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the association between 6MWD and postoperative survival following lung transplantation. METHODS Adult, first time, lung-only transplantations per the United Network for Organ Sharing database from May 2005 to December 2011 were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards modeling were used to determine the association between preoperative 6MWD and post-transplant survival after adjusting for potential confounders. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the 6MWD value that provided maximal separation in 1-year mortality. A subanalysis was performed to assess the association between 6MWD and post-transplant survival by disease category. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS A total of 9,526 patients were included for analysis. The median 6MWD was 787 ft (25th-75th percentiles = 450-1,082 ft). Increasing 6MWD was associated with significantly lower overall hazard of death (P < 0.001). Continuous increase in walk distance through 1,200-1,400 ft conferred an incremental survival advantage. Although 6MWD strongly correlated with survival, the impact of a single dichotomous value to predict outcomes was limited. All disease categories demonstrated significantly longer survival with increasing 6MWD (P ≤ 0.009) except pulmonary vascular disease (P = 0.74); however, the low volume in this category (n = 312; 3.3%) may limit the ability to detect an association. CONCLUSIONS 6MWD is significantly associated with post-transplant survival and is best incorporated into transplant evaluations on a continuous basis given limited ability of a single, dichotomous value to predict outcomes.

Measuring Scale Efficiency from the Translog Multi-Input, Multi-Output Distance Function

Ray (1998) developed measures of input- and output-oriented scale efficiency that can be directly computed from an estimated Translog frontier production function. This note extends the earlier results from Ray (1998) to the multiple-output multiple input case.