Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions

There has been a great deal of recent interest in producing weather forecasts on the 2–6 week sub-seasonal timescale, which bridges the gap between medium-range (0–10 day) and seasonal (3–6 month) forecasts. While much of this interest is focused on the potential applications of skilful forecasts on the sub-seasonal range, understanding the potential sources of sub-seasonal forecast skill is a challenging and interesting problem, particularly because of the likely state-dependence of this skill (Hudson et al 2011). One such potential source of state-dependent skill for the Northern Hemisphere in winter is the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events (Sigmond et al 2013). Here we show, by analysing a set of sub-seasonal hindcasts, that there is enhanced predictability of surface circulation not only when the stratospheric vortex is anomalously weak following SSWs but also when the vortex is extremely strong. Sub-seasonal forecasts initialized during strong vortex events are able to successfully capture the associated surface temperature and circulation anomalies. This results in an enhancement of Northern annular mode forecast skill compared to forecasts initialized during the cases when the stratospheric state is close to climatology. We demonstrate that the enhancement of skill for forecasts initialized during periods of strong vortex conditions is comparable to that achieved for forecasts initialized during weak events. This result indicates that additional confidence can be placed in sub-seasonal forecasts when the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly disturbed from its normal state.

Long-range ozone transport and its impact on respiratory and cardiovascular health in the north of Portugal

Ozone dynamics depend on meteorological characteristics such as wind, radiation, sunshine, air temperature and precipitation. The aim of this study was to determine ozone trajectories along the northern coast of Portugal during the summer months of 2005, when there was a spate of forest fires in the region, evaluating their impact on respiratory and cardiovascular health in the greater metropolitan area of Porto. We investigated the following diseases, as coded in the ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases: hypertensive disease (codes 401-405); ischemic heart disease (codes 410-414); other cardiac diseases, including heart failure (codes 426-428); chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and allied conditions, including bronchitis and asthma (codes 490-496); and pneumoconiosis and other lung diseases due to external agents (codes 500-507). We evaluated ozone data from air quality monitoring stations in the study area, together with data collected through HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model analysis of air mass circulation and synoptic-scale zonal wind from National Centers for Environmental Prediction data. High ozone levels in rural areas were attributed to the dispersion of pollutants induced by local circulation, as well as by mesoscale and synoptic scale processes. The fires of 2005 increased the levels of pollutants resulting from the direct emission of gases and particles into the atmosphere, especially when there were incoming frontal systems. For the meteorological case studies analyzed, peaks in ozone concentration were positively associated with higher rates of hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases, although there were no significant associations between ozone peaks and admissions for respiratory diseases.

Percolation in a network with long-range connections: Implications for cytoskeletal structure and function

Cell shape, signaling, and integrity depend on cytoskeletal organization. In this study we describe the cytoskeleton as a simple network of filamentary proteins (links) anchored by complex protein structures (nodes). The structure of this network is regulated by a distance-dependent probability of link formation as P = p/d(s), where p regulates the network density and s controls how fast the probability for link formation decays with node distance (d). It was previously shown that the regulation of the link lengths is crucial for the mechanical behavior of the cells. Here we examined the ability of the two-dimensional network to percolate (i.e. to have end-to-end connectivity), and found that the percolation threshold depends strongly on s. The system undergoes a transition around s = 2. The percolation threshold of networks with s < 2 decreases with increasing system size L, while the percolation threshold for networks with s > 2 converges to a finite value. We speculate that s < 2 may represent a condition in which cells can accommodate deformation while still preserving their mechanical integrity. Additionally, we measured the length distribution of F-actin filaments from publicly available images of a variety of cell types. In agreement with model predictions, cells originating from more deformable tissues show longer F-actin cytoskeletal filaments. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Classical simulation of deposition of thiophene oligomers on TiO(2)-anatase: Relevance of long-range electrostatic interactions

We performed classical molecular dynamics simulations of the vapor-deposition of alpha-T4 oligomers on the TiO(2)-anatase (101) surface, comparing different sets of charges associated with the atoms of the model. The potential energy surfaces for alpha-T4 and TiO(2) were described by re-parametrizations of the Universal force field with charges given by the charge equilibration (QEq) scheme, or with fixed charges obtained by an ab initio method using the Hirshfeld partition. The two sets of charges lead to completely different results for the interface formation, and for the characteristics of the organic film, with a clearly defined alpha-T4 contact layer in the QEq case, and a more homogeneous molecular distribution when using Hirshfeld charges. The main reason for the discrepancy was found to be the incorrect charge assignment given by QEq to the sulfur and alpha-carbon atoms in thiophenes, and highlight the relevance of long-range interactions in the organization of molecular films. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fast long-range connections in transportation networks

Multidimensional scaling is applied in order to visualize an analogue of the small-world effect implied by edges having different displacement velocities in transportation networks. Our findings are illustrated for two real-world systems, namely the London urban network (streets and underground) and the US highway network enhanced by some of the main US airlines routes. We also show that the travel time in these two networks is drastically changed by attacks targeting the edges with large displacement velocities. (C) 2011 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.

Observation of long-range, near-side angular correlations in proton-proton collisions at the LHC

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Photo luminescence: A probe for short, medium and long-range self-organization order in ZrTiO4 oxide

Photoluminescent disordered ZrTiO4 powders were obtained by the polymeric precursor soft-chemical method. This oxide system (ordered and disordered) was characterized by photoluminescence, Raman spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry and UV vis absorption experiments. The UV absorption tail formation in the disordered oxides was related to the diminution of optical band gap. In the disordered phase, this oxide displayed broad band photoluminescence caused by change in coordination number of titanium and zirconium with oxygen atoms. The gap decreased from 3.09 eV in crystalline oxide to 2.16 eV in disordered oxide. The crystalline oxide presented an orthorhombic alpha-PbO2-type structure in which Zr4+ and Ti4+ were randomly distributed in octahedral coordination polyhedra with oxygen atoms. The amorphous-crystalline transition occurred at almost 700 degrees C, at which point the photoluminescence vanished. The Raman peak at close to 80-200 cm(-1) indicated the presence of locally ordered Ti-O-n and Zr-O-n polyhedra in disordered photoluminescent oxides. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of the modifier on the short and long range disorder of stannate perovskites

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Higgs- and Goldstone-boson-mediated long range forces

In certain mild extensions of the standard model, spin-independent long range forces can arise by exchange of two very light pseudoscalar spin-0 bosons. In particular, we have in mind models in which these bosons do not have direct tree level couplings to ordinary fermions. Using the dispersion theoretical method, we find a 1/r3 behavior of the potential for the exchange of very light pseudoscalars and a 1/r7 dependence if the pseudoscalars are true massless Goldstone bosons. ©1999 The American Physical Society.

Long-range and short-range dihadron angular correlations in central PbPb collisions at psNN = 2:76 TeV

First measurements of dihadron correlations for charged particles are presented for central PbPb collisions at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 2.76TeV over a broad range in relative pseudorapidity (Δν) and the full range of relative azimuthal angle (Δø). The data were collected with the CMS detector, at the LHC. A broadening of the away-side (Δø y≈ π) azimuthal correlation is observed at all Δν, as compared to the measurements in pp collisions. Furthermore, long-range dihadron correlations in Δν are observed for particles with similar ø values. This phenomenon, also known as the \ridge, persists up to at least jΔνj = 4. For particles with transverse momenta (pT) of 2-4 GeV/c, the ridge is found to be most prominent when these particles are correlated with particles of pT = 2-6 GeV/c, and to be much reduced when paired with particles of pT = 10-12 GeV/c. Copyright CERN.

Proyecciones de población a largo plazo = Long-range population projections

Incluye Bibliografía

Planificación del desarrollo a largo plazo: notas sobre su esencia y metodología = Long-range development planning: notes on essence and methodology

Analiza las funciones de la planificacion, su relacion con el mercado y la economia a largo plazo, especialmente en lo que se refiere a la metodologia.

Observation of long-range, near-side angular correlations in pPb collisions at the LHC

Results on two-particle angular correlations for charged particles emitted in pPb collisions at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV are presented. The analysis uses two million collisions collected with the CMS detector at the LHC. The correlations are studied over a broad range of pseudorapidity, η, and full azimuth, φ, as a function of charged particle multiplicity and particle transverse momentum, pT. In high-multiplicity events, a long-range (2<|δη|<4), near-side (δφ≈0) structure emerges in the two-particle δη-δφ correlation functions. This is the first observation of such correlations in proton-nucleus collisions, resembling the ridge-like correlations seen in high-multiplicity pp collisions at s=7 TeV and in AA collisions over a broad range of center-of-mass energies. The correlation strength exhibits a pronounced maximum in the range of pT=1-1.5 GeV/c and an approximately linear increase with charged particle multiplicity for high-multiplicity events. These observations are qualitatively similar to those in pp collisions when selecting the same observed particle multiplicity, while the overall strength of the correlations is significantly larger in pPb collisions. © 2012 CERN.

Long-range development planning: notes on its substance and methodology

Revisa varios de los problemas que presenta la planificación del desarrollo a largo plazo: los aspectos políticos; la relación entre la planificación y el mercado en las economías mixtas; y los aspectos éticos y metodológicos.